Hillary Clinton is Done

[The Big Dog]

Indeed. There are several self proclaimed experts on classified information handling over in the clintonemails thread who are all sure that she's guilty. They seem to believe that there is a conspiracy to protect Clinton, though, so even they admit nothing will come of this.

eta: everything you just wrote in hilite is false:

Indeed. There are several self proclaimed experts on classified information handling over in the clintonemails thread who are all sure that she's guilty. They seem to believe that there is a conspiracy to protect Clinton, though, so even they admit nothing will come of this.
Forget that I am dealing with complete pedants who would not understand hyperbole unless it came in a Hillary 2016 press release.

 

[wareyin]

everything you just wrote was false.

Are you claiming that Reheat, you, and sunmaster14 don't think Clinton is guilty?

ETA: or that you 3 don't understand handling classified information better than government officials who were trained for it? Or that you 3 haven't claimed that Clinton is being protected?

 

[DavidJames]

Are you claiming that Reheat, you, and sunmaster14 don't think Clinton is guilty?

ETA: or that you 3 don't understand handling classified information better than government officials who were trained for it? Or that you 3 haven't claimed that Clinton is being protected?

Didn't you read, he says what you and I have read from Internet lawyers and vigilantis declaring her guilty was "hyperbole". In other words like that other famous Republican who once said, that was "not meant to be a factual statement".

Republicans, what a whacky group.

 

[Crossbow]

Clinton is likely going to jail

All they have to do is find classified emails that she deleted and its obstruction of justice

As far as I am concerned her chances of a presidential run are over

Biden would be my guess at this point

And then you woke up.

 

[xjx388]

You're misunderstanding my point. Nate Silver isn't impressive for estimating her at 85%. The disparity between 85% and "done" is what's impressive. Even more so considering the track record of Silver's estimates.

No, I got your point. My point is that the estimates of Hillary's chances are worthless. By Silver and Friend's own admission, they are based on virtually no data and are "totally subjective." You are simply appealing to his authority. Thus, if you are impressed with Hilary's chances based on virtually no data, then my equally worthless estimates must impresss you too.

 

[wareyin]

No, I got your point. My point is that the estimates of Hillary's chances are worthless. By Silver and Friend's own admission, they are based on virtually no data and are "totally subjective." You are simply appealing to his authority. Thus, if you are impressed with Hilary's chances based on virtually no data, then my equally worthless estimates must impresss you too.

Do you have a similar track record?

 

[xjx388]

Do you have a similar track record?

Irrelevant. Guesses made based on no data are just that; guesses. One guess is as good as another.

 

[Cleon]

Clinton is likely going to jail

I've been hearing that since the mid-90s. Call me skeptical.

 

[SezMe]

Hey, Elf, Cleon is skeptical. He's just a big party-pooper.

 

[wareyin]

Irrelevant. Guesses made based on no data are just that; guesses. One guess is as good as another.

Fascinating. Would you similarly think that if an adult male and a 3 year old male made a guess as to the cost of a car that they are both "as good as" each other, or equally likely to be correct?

 

[xjx388]

Fascinating. Would you similarly think that if an adult male and a 3 year old male made a guess as to the cost of a car that they are both "as good as" each other, or equally likely to be correct?

Also irrelevant. Nate and I are both adult males looking at the same data. His expertise in statistical analysis does not help him here because there is not enough data to calculate and it's much too early in the game. If this email thing gets worse, there goes his 85% He can't calculate the chances of her dropping out because he has no basis in which to do so. The article says as much, emphasizing the "totally subjective," nature of the guess. Thus, we are on equal footing and my guess is as good as his.

Unless you are indirectly saying that I have the intelligence and experience of a 3 year old...but I can't imagine you would do that as it's an ad hom and I sure you are above that nonsense.

 

[wareyin]

Also irrelevant. Nate and I are both adult males looking at the same data. His expertise in statistical analysis does not help him here because there is not enough data to calculate and it's much too early in the game. If this email thing gets worse, there goes his 85% He can't calculate the chances of her dropping out because he has no basis in which to do so. The article says as much, emphasizing the "totally subjective," nature of the guess. Thus, we are on equal footing and my guess is as good as his.

Unless you are indirectly saying that I have the intelligence and experience of a 3 year old...but I can't imagine you would do that as it's an ad hom and I sure you are above that nonsense.

You appear to recognize that greater experience will lend greater weight to a guess, then throw that out the window to put yourself on par with an expert in statistical analysis again. Let's try this: Would a guess of an auto mechanic on what is wrong with your car (without actually inspecting it) be more or less likely to be correct than the guess of someone with absolutely no experience working on cars?

And for the record, I was not comparing you to a 3 year old.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Clinton is likely going to jail...

What a naive thing to believe.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Maybe I spoke too soon!

Turns out that Hillary's Arab lesbian lover may be a Muslim Brotherhood sleeper agent!

http://www.coachisright.com/militar...clinton-emails-huma-abedinhillary-love-story/

Yep, she's toast.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

eta: everything you just wrote in hilite is false:

Indeed. There are several self proclaimed experts on classified information handling over in the clintonemails thread who are all sure that she's guilty. They seem to believe that there is a conspiracy to protect Clinton, though, so even they admit nothing will come of this.
Forget that I am dealing with complete pedants who would not understand hyperbole unless it came in a Hillary 2016 press release.

You admit this is a CT. The CT forum is that way ---->>>>

 

[Trebuchet]

Oh gawd. I broke my first rule and clicked on that Mooslim Lesbian Lover link. Why the heck did I do that. Oh, my poor brain.

Meanwhile, I don't think she's done. I'd go along with "half-baked".

 

[Foolmewunz]

Also irrelevant. Nate and I are both adult males looking at the same data. His expertise in statistical analysis does not help him here because there is not enough data to calculate and it's much too early in the game. If this email thing gets worse, there goes his 85% He can't calculate the chances of her dropping out because he has no basis in which to do so. The article says as much, emphasizing the "totally subjective," nature of the guess. Thus, we are on equal footing and my guess is as good as his.

Unless you are indirectly saying that I have the intelligence and experience of a 3 year old...but I can't imagine you would do that as it's an ad hom and I sure you are above that nonsense.

I take it that like Dylan Avery in his BBC interview, you don't get metaphors? Your experience in statistical analysis of polling trends vs voting trends and forecasting the ultimate outcome, COMPARED TO Nate Silver and 538 dot com, is akin to the analogy he/she made.

And do you and Nate really have the same sets of data? I doubt it. Perhaps you could show us your data set? That'd sure make me look foolish, wouldn't it?

 

[xjx388]

You appear to recognize that greater experience will lend greater weight to a guess, then throw that out the window to put yourself on par with an expert in statistical analysis again. Let's try this: Would a guess of an auto mechanic on what is wrong with your car (without actually inspecting it) be more or less likely to be correct than the guess of someone with absolutely no experience working on cars?

And for the record, I was not comparing you to a 3 year old.

If all they know is that something is wrong with the car, their guesses are equal. That's where we are in the primaries right now. And given Hil-dawg's growing problems and slipping poll numbers, it gets less and less likely that she will get the nom.

 

[xjx388]

I take it that like Dylan Avery in his BBC interview, you don't get metaphors? Your experience in statistical analysis of polling trends vs voting trends and forecasting the ultimate outcome, COMPARED TO Nate Silver and 538 dot com, is akin to the analogy he/she made.

And do you and Nate really have the same sets of data? I doubt it. Perhaps you could show us your data set? That'd sure make me look foolish, wouldn't it?

What data? Did you read the article? They admit there is very little data to go on. We all have access to the same polls, etc.

When it comes to predicting election outcomes where there is months of polling data on two serious candidates, Nate Silver is without peer. If he says it, I give it serious weight. But his 85% chance Hillary will get the nom is totally subjective -which means not based on data. It means basically nothing and even he is careful to point that out.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

This Op-Ed from the NYTs is worth a skim:

Is Hillary Clinton Really in Danger of Losing the Primary?

Probably not. At least not yet. It could change if the investigation into her email account takes a more serious turn, or if another problem arises. But for now, the damage to Mrs. Clinton has been overstated.

He doesn't think Sanders can break out into the general electorate. One thing I remember well from the Obama campaign because my son was in college at the time and because I heard it again and again, Obama won over the younger liberal voters, like Sanders is now, but then the older voters started saying, well my son's (or daughter's) interest in Obama made me take a closer look at him.

I don't hear that with Sanders.

The possibility that Mr. Biden might run for president has led many to imagine that Mrs. Clinton’s sagging support has Democrats on the verge of drafting him into the race. But the reaction from Democratic elites to a possible Biden run has been tepid at best. Major Democratic figures have publicly argued against his candidacy. My colleagues Carl Hulse and Jason Horowitz reported that the skepticism even extends to Mr. Biden’s friends and many Obama 2008 supporters — exactly the sort of people who ought to be most receptive to his candidacy.
Mr. Biden is the party’s natural emergency alarm option. Party leaders aren’t breaking the glass.