Hillary Clinton is Done: part 3

[Childlike Empress]

I'm surprised there aren't more conspiracy theorists ranting about Trump being a Clinton patsy, playing a role to get her elected. He really is acting exactly the way you'd expect a Clinton mole to behave in this situation. How electable would Clinton be with a different opponent?

There's a lengthy thread in the appropriate subforum about that (while the thread about Trump being a mole of Putin is in this subforum again. )

 

[acbytesla]

I'm surprised there aren't more conspiracy theorists ranting about Trump being a Clinton patsy, playing a role to get her elected. He really is acting exactly the way you'd expect a Clinton mole to behave in this situation. How electable would Clinton be with a different opponent?

That is a very common conspiracy theory considering that Trump until about 12 years ago was more of a Democrat than a Republican. Not to mention he has played golf a few times with Bill as well as given Bill a membership at his Country Club and asked Hillary to attend his wedding and called Bill before he ran.

Trump is a very odd bird.

 

[Travis]

Meh. In the grand scheme of the election, does it really matter if she said something racist 20 years ago?

Did she? I don't recall the "super predator" thing being racist at all.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/99074f54e3b17f64e.gif

Poll: Clinton Unpopularity at New High, on Par With Trump

Which only goes to show you can make someone unpopular for no reason if you just keep talking about it. I mean Trump is unpopular for reason; he says terrible things and proposes terrible policy. Hillary says no terrible things and mostly has great policy proposals.

 

[Firestone]

How worrying is the recent tightening of the polls?

 

[The Great Zaganza]

How worrying is the recent tightening of the polls?

I'd say it depends on your narrative.

In a tight election, more former Sanders supporters might vote for Clinton, and even those who like her only marginally more than Trump might bother to turn up to vote.
Historically, third party candidates start losing votes the closer the election gets, so some of the drop for Clinton will be reversed.

But the more credible Trump becomes, the more support he will get from the GOP (which is crucial, since he has basically no ground game of his own).
If the decline of Clinton Poll numbers lead to Johnson entering one or more debates, this could be very bad for Clinton, too, since the Libertarians will probably take more votes from her than Trump.

 

[Firestone]

I'd say it depends on your narrative.

In a tight election, more former Sanders supporters might vote for Clinton, and even those who like her only marginally more than Trump might bother to turn up to vote.
Historically, third party candidates start losing votes the closer the election gets, so some of the drop for Clinton will be reversed.

But the more credible Trump becomes, the more support he will get from the GOP (which is crucial, since he has basically no ground game of his own).
If the decline of Clinton Poll numbers lead to Johnson entering one or more debates, this could be very bad for Clinton, too, since the Libertarians will probably take more votes from her than Trump.

(bolding mine)

Not much sign of that for now.

Still, the race is frighteningly close ...

 

[The Don]

(bolding mine)

Not much sign of that for now.

Still, the race is frighteningly close ...

Your definition of credible may be different to that of someone who may be considering voting for Trump.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Credible in the sense of having a chance of being elected - I agree that there is zero chance that he will become believable.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Which only goes to show you can make someone unpopular for no reason if you just keep talking about it. I mean Trump is unpopular for reason; he says terrible things and proposes terrible policy. Hillary says no terrible things and mostly has great policy proposals.

 

[catsmate]

And voting machine rigging, as happened in 2000, 2004, and elsewhere.

Evidence for this claim?

 

[varwoche]

How worrying is the recent tightening of the polls?

Very, no matter how I slice it.

 

[Stacko]

How worrying is the recent tightening of the polls?

Convention bounce took longer to fade than expected. Donald is still in the doldrums of underperforming what a sack of potatoes with an R slapped on it would do.

Trump national polling average
Aug. 9: 37.8
Aug. 16: 36.7
Aug. 23: 37.3
Aug. 30: 37.7​

Aug. 9: 45.2
Aug. 16: 43.8
Aug. 23: 43.4
Aug. 30: 42.9​

Johnson/Weld has been picking up most of the % Clinton is losing (people trying to get them in the debates?) and third party support always massively underperforms their actual polling; that will be to Clinton's benefit.

 

[Tero]

How worrying is the recent tightening of the polls?

Not at all. He will never get the electoral votes even if he adds a few states.

 

[acbytesla]

Convention bounce took longer to fade than expected. Donald is still in the doldrums of underperforming what a sack of potatoes with an R slapped on it would do.

Trump national polling average
Aug. 9: 37.8
Aug. 16: 36.7
Aug. 23: 37.3
Aug. 30: 37.7​

Aug. 9: 45.2
Aug. 16: 43.8
Aug. 23: 43.4
Aug. 30: 42.9​

Johnson/Weld has been picking up most of the % Clinton is losing (people trying to get them in the debates?) and third party support always massively underperforms their actual polling; that will be to Clinton's benefit.

More important are the State by state numbers and every battleground state poll has Clinton about 5 points ahead in both Florida and Ohio and double digits in Virginia, Pennsylvania, NJ and Michigan Clinton is up about 7 in NC. I'd say the only blue state where her lead isn't what you would expect is Nevada.Read a poll tIday where Clinton is up 4 in Georgia.

 

[Foolmewunz]

More important are the State by state numbers and every battleground state poll has Clinton about 5 points ahead in both Florida and Ohio and double digits in Virginia, Pennsylvania, NJ and Michigan Clinton is up about 7 in NC. I'd say the only blue state where her lead isn't what you would expect is Nevada.Read a poll tIday where Clinton is up 4 in Georgia.

Follow the money. The Dems did a head-fake into the Red States of AZ, GA, MO, UT. Trump's team fell for it and spent a lot of resources in those states. You can't complain, if you're a Dem, about the President or Veep candidate for the Republicans spending money and time in Mississippi, Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, Utah.... that's just a gift.

Head fake? Yep. They are spending approximately 000.00 on ad buys in those states. All the money is going into keeping the number at 270+. Their recent ad buys were MI, OH, PA, NC, VA, FL, NV, WI - I believe. Not a penny to Arizona or Georgia. They'll keep making noises about them but it's a distraction.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

How worrying is the recent tightening of the polls?

Not too worrying once you account for the fact the media plays it up because a tight race is more newsworthy.

 

[Foolmewunz]

Not too worrying once you account for the fact the media plays it up because a tight race is more newsworthy.

Yeah, and there are a couple of polling organizations with all the credibility of that Hey Vern guy, who are probably loathe to not come through for Reince. He predicted that the staff shakeup would have the polls even by Labor Day. Rasmussen and Fox are doing their damnedest, but the not-bought polls aren't cooperating.

 

[acbytesla]

Follow the money. The Dems did a head-fake into the Red States of AZ, GA, MO, UT. Trump's team fell for it and spent a lot of resources in those states. You can't complain, if you're a Dem, about the President or Veep candidate for the Republicans spending money and time in Mississippi, Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, Utah.... that's just a gift.

Head fake? Yep. They are spending approximately 000.00 on ad buys in those states. All the money is going into keeping the number at 270+. Their recent ad buys were MI, OH, PA, NC, VA, FL, NV, WI - I believe. Not a penny to Arizona or Georgia. They'll keep making noises about them but it's a distraction.

Really? hmmmmm. I just read today that after Trump's immigration speech that the Clinton campaign made a big ad buy in AZ.

Clinton thinks Trump took a misstep with his Phoenix speech, too, and her campaign sees an opening in Arizona, a Republican-heavy state where Democrats are vying for Hispanic votes. Her campaign said Thursday it will drop six figures to air an anti-Trump ad on local stations there.
Starting as early as today, Arizonans can see “Role Models,” a Clinton ad wherein children watch Donald Trump mock a disabled reporter and (sort of) drop an F-bomb.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...hispanic-backers-clinton-makes-move/89759532/

But frankly, 6 figures isn't that big a buy.

 

[slyjoe]

I've seen the ad on national cable stations.

In Arizona, some of Trump supporters may think it's an ad FOR Trump.

 

[acbytesla]

I've seen the ad on national cable stations.

In Arizona, some of Trump supporters may think it's an ad FOR Trump.

You're probably right. There are these Trump supporters that seem to think common decency is political correctness gone amok.

Maybe I was just raised differently, but there are some things you do and don't do. You say, "please" and "may I" and "thank you". You can and should be direct, but you're polite and respectful to everyone, regardless of their station in life.

It's not just his crazy mostly stupid policies like building a wall that I hate. (In fact, I love his proposal to spend a Trillion dollars on infrastructure spending. Hillary's plan is 275 billion. BTW, the Republicans in Congress oppose both proposals.)

It's his lack of respect for others that I hate. I really want someone in a meaningful way confront him on his selfish disagreeable behavior.