Hillary Clinton is Done: part 2

[Fudbucker]

According to the DNC. Has the DNC announced Clinton is the presumptive nominee, like the GOP did with Trump after Indiana? No? Then she's not the presumptive nominee.

So in addition to not understanding the predictive value of national polls 6 month out, you also don't know the definition of presumptive nominee.

Presumptive Nominee

In United States presidential elections, the presumptive nominee is a presidential candidate who is assured of his or her party's nomination, but has not yet been formally nominated by his or her political party at the party's nominating convention.[3][4] Ordinarily, a candidate becomes the presumptive nominee of his or her party when his or her "last serious challenger drops out" or when he or she "mathematically clinches—whichever comes first.

Are you claiming Clinton has mathematically clinched the nomination? If so, source for the claim?

 

[PhantomWolf]

So your defense of Hillary is to point out she lost to Obama?

I'm not defending Hillary, I'm pointing out that your bias has you creating a bunch of illegitimate rules that when applied to other people produce worse results that when applied to Hillary, but you refuse to answer this.

 

[Foolmewunz]

Are you claiming Clinton has mathematically clinched the nomination? If so, source for the claim?

Seriously? We're going to play No True Skeptic?

For all intents and purposes, it's over. Bernie's not getting a single committed superdelegate to convert. Believe the newspapers on this one. If he had one, it'd be all over the place. In fact, the last switch was a Sanders super in the Virgin Islands who announced they were supporting Hillary.

California will still be voting when Hillary passes the 2383 mark. (When New Jersey closes... my prediction is about 20 minutes later, thus 8:20 pm.) She only needs 90 delegates. She'll get more than half of that in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, meaning she will only need 45 votes in NJ and could lose 67/33 and be over the top. But she's going to win NJ so she'll be about 100 over 2383 when California's polls close. She won't "need" a single delegate out of CA, but she'll get a minimum of 273.

It's over. I really have no idea why Bernie doesn't just suspend his campaign. DON'T DROP OUT! DON'T FREE UP YOUR DELEGATES! Carry them to the convention and have a voice that is listened to. Do not carry on this Sisyphean battle and go to the convention as a loser; a bad loser at that.

 

[PhantomWolf]

Seriously? We're going to play No True Skeptic?

For all intents and purposes, it's over. Bernie's not getting a single committed superdelegate to convert. Believe the newspapers on this one. If he had one, it'd be all over the place. In fact, the last switch was a Sanders super in the Virgin Islands who announced they were supporting Hillary.

California will still be voting when Hillary passes the 2383 mark. (When New Jersey closes... my prediction is about 20 minutes later, thus 8:20 pm.) She only needs 90 delegates. She'll get more than half of that in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, meaning she will only need 45 votes in NJ and could lose 67/33 and be over the top. But she's going to win NJ so she'll be about 100 over 2383 when California's polls close. She won't "need" a single delegate out of CA, but she'll get a minimum of 273.

It's over. I really have no idea why Bernie doesn't just suspend his campaign. DON'T DROP OUT! DON'T FREE UP YOUR DELEGATES! Carry them to the convention and have a voice that is listened to. Do not carry on this Sisyphean battle and go to the convention as a loser; a bad loser at that.

You're fighting against the narrative. "Hillary is an Evil Wall Street stooge, Bernie can still win! Feel the Bern!"

Sadly it seems that a number of Bernie's supporters have drunk the Cool Aid.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Are you claiming Clinton has mathematically clinched the nomination? If so, source for the claim?

90 delegates short, 930 delegates left. Are you claiming it's possible Sanders will take the 90% of the remaining delegates?

I presume not.

 

[PhantomWolf]

90 delegates short, 930 delegates left. Are you claiming it's possible Sanders will take the 90% of the remaining delegates?

I presume not.

But, but, but, you're counting the supers, and remember the supers are all going to flock en masse to Bernie when they get to the convention and he tells them all about Income Inequality and how by fixing that will solve all the ills in the world, except for those disabled people, and they just need to do some more yoga. And if thy don't, well there are always the Nevada tactics of chair throwing and death threats! #BernieOrBust!

 

[Slings and Arrows]

Bill Clinton: 'I sometimes feel that I'm totally useless in this election season'

Former President Bill Clinton sounded frustrated about his value to his wife's presidential bid on the campaign trail in South Dakota on Friday.

The ex-president took a moment to ponder his lot in life onstage, and revealed the exasperation he has experienced stumping for Hillary Clinton.

"I sometimes feel that I'm totally useless in this election season because I'm a happy grandfather. I'm not mad enough at anybody," Clinton said. "And because the life I spend now is driven by the real world and facts. I mean, we live in kind of a fact-free political universe, you know?"

The former president's comments suggested he recognized that his congenial tone was not in demand this election season and could become a detriment to Hillary Clinton as the 2016 race progresses.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/b...ally-useless-in-this-election/article/2591888 (May 20, 2016)

Poor frustrated Bill Clinton, his campaign rallies have been sparsely attended, and the few curious onlookers who show up to hear his boring message commonly have trouble staying awake, and risk dozing off.

Snubbed by the public at large, Bill's lackluster and unconvincing sales pitch (vote for my crooked wife Hillary) has fallen flat -- barely breathing.

Point the finger of blame at both the message and the messenger.

 

[Foolmewunz]

Poor frustrated Bill Clinton, his campaign rallies have been sparsely attended, and the few curious onlookers who show up to hear his boring message commonly have trouble staying awake, and risk dozing off.

Snubbed by the public at large, Bill's lackluster and unconvincing sales pitch (vote for my crooked wife Hillary) has fallen flat -- barely breathing.

Point the finger of blame at both the message and the messenger.

You're doing great. No, really, we can hardly see you sweating.

This qualifies for recognition under Worst Strategy Evah (sub-titled Be Careful What You Wish For). Do you really think that the laid back former POTUS that you see now is who you're going to see on the campaign trail? This is a guy who campaigned himself into exhaustion not just for his elections but for Barack Obama. Arguably he's as big a campaign dawg as he is a horn dawg. I'd say if you get down to it, he probably loves a good campaign more than he loves nookie.

What's the Donald, a noted philanderer himself going to use against Bill? Those same people who think "yeah, a guy should have a hot chick with him as he gets senile" in support of Trump, are just as likely to think "Hey, that's our Bill. Can't keep it in his pants and never could!", and not mean it in a bad way. And he appeals to a demographic that naturally dislikes and distrusts fast-talking yankee carpetbaggers like Trump.... the good old boys. Not a demographic that's going to win you a national election, but one that can turn a couple of purple states blue.

As the song says, and Agent Orange should note.... Don't Mess With Bill.

 

[Fudbucker]

90 delegates short, 930 delegates left. Are you claiming it's possible Sanders will take the 90% of the remaining delegates?

I presume not.

Of course it's possible. If it were impossible, the betting odds on Sanders would be zero. The DNC would declare Clinton the presumptive nominee. The odds aren't zero and Clinton isn't the presumptive nominee.

 

[WildCat]

Hillary Clinton Polls: Donald Trump’s Post-Nomination Bump Could Be Over As Clinton Back On Top In The Polls


You really need to do more to do more to investigate the significance of evidence before you draw your conclusions.

"post-nomination bump"? The convention hasn't even happened yet!

 

[WildCat]

Poor frustrated Bill Clinton, his campaign rallies have been sparsely attended, and the few curious onlookers who show up to hear his boring message commonly have trouble staying awake, and risk dozing off.

Snubbed by the public at large, Bill's lackluster and unconvincing sales pitch (vote for my crooked wife Hillary) has fallen flat -- barely breathing.

Point the finger of blame at both the message and the messenger.

Bill looks like death warmed over these days, he's not the Bill Clinton of the 1990s.

 

[WildCat]

Of course it's possible. If it were impossible, the betting odds on Sanders would be zero. The DNC would declare Clinton the presumptive nominee. The odds aren't zero and Clinton isn't the presumptive nominee.

The DNC is just trying to find a way to appease Bernie's militant followers so they don't get even more violent than they have been.

 

[Fudbucker]

Seriously? We're going to play No True Skeptic?

For all intents and purposes, it's over. Bernie's not getting a single committed superdelegate to convert. Believe the newspapers on this one. If he had one, it'd be all over the place. In fact, the last switch was a Sanders super in the Virgin Islands who announced they were supporting Hillary.

California will still be voting when Hillary passes the 2383 mark. (When New Jersey closes... my prediction is about 20 minutes later, thus 8:20 pm.) She only needs 90 delegates. She'll get more than half of that in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, meaning she will only need 45 votes in NJ and could lose 67/33 and be over the top. But she's going to win NJ so she'll be about 100 over 2383 when California's polls close. She won't "need" a single delegate out of CA, but she'll get a minimum of 273.

It's over. I really have no idea why Bernie doesn't just suspend his campaign. DON'T DROP OUT! DON'T FREE UP YOUR DELEGATES! Carry them to the convention and have a voice that is listened to. Do not carry on this Sisyphean battle and go to the convention as a loser; a bad loser at that.

Seriously? We're going to throw claims around like "mathematically impossible" and then cry foul when we're challenged on them?

This is a skeptic's forum, is it not? Is it your claim that it's mathematically impossible for Bernie to win enough delegates to get the nomination? If you're claiming that, you're wrong. I can give you three scenarios:

1. Clinton gets embroiled in some new scandal, Sander's wins the remaining contests by 70-30, ends up with a majority of pledged delegates, and the super-delegates fall in line.

2. Clinton is indicted and withdraws from the race (or loses the remaining contests so badly, Bernie gets a majority of pledged delegates).

3. Clinton dies, either by natural causes or is assassinated, and Bernie wins all the delegates that are left.

There's precedent for all three. Gary Hart was the front-runner in May, FBI investigations often end in indictments, and Robert Kennedy was killed after winning California.

 

[jhunter1163]

You're doing great. No, really, we can hardly see you sweating.

This qualifies for recognition under Worst Strategy Evah (sub-titled Be Careful What You Wish For). Do you really think that the laid back former POTUS that you see now is who you're going to see on the campaign trail? This is a guy who campaigned himself into exhaustion not just for his elections but for Barack Obama. Arguably he's as big a campaign dawg as he is a horn dawg. I'd say if you get down to it, he probably loves a good campaign more than he loves nookie.

What's the Donald, a noted philanderer himself going to use against Bill? Those same people who think "yeah, a guy should have a hot chick with him as he gets senile" in support of Trump, are just as likely to think "Hey, that's our Bill. Can't keep it in his pants and never could!", and not mean it in a bad way. And he appeals to a demographic that naturally dislikes and distrusts fast-talking yankee carpetbaggers like Trump.... the good old boys. Not a demographic that's going to win you a national election, but one that can turn a couple of purple states blue.

As the song says, and Agent Orange should note.... Don't Mess With Bill.

And there's one more weapon the Democrats haven't deployed yet; the still quite popular (increasingly so, in fact) Barack Obama. He can't say anything while the nomination is still being contested, but once Sanders suspends his campaign (or, at worst, after the convention) you can be sure that he'll hit the hustings for Hillary. His convention keynote speech will be a thing of beauty.

 

[jhunter1163]

Seriously? We're going to throw claims around like "mathematically impossible" and then cry foul when we're challenged on them?

This is a skeptic's forum, is it not? Is it your claim that it's mathematically impossible for Bernie to win enough delegates to get the nomination? If you're claiming that, you're wrong. I can give you three scenarios:

1. Clinton gets embroiled in some new scandal, Sander's wins the remaining contests by 70-30, ends up with a majority of pledged delegates, and the super-delegates fall in line.

2. Clinton is indicted and withdraws from the race (or loses the remaining contests so badly, Bernie gets a majority of pledged delegates).

3. Clinton dies, either by natural causes or is assassinated, and Bernie wins all the delegates that are left.

There's precedent for all three. Gary Hart was the front-runner in May, FBI investigations often end in indictments, and Robert Kennedy was killed after winning California.

1 and 2 can be dismissed out of hand. Given proportional allocation of delegates, even 70-30 wouldn't be enough to stop Clinton from clinching. There isn't going to be any indictment; Trump has a better chance of being indicted for fraud for his Trump University shenanigans. The only way Sanders could get the nomination would be some "black swan" event, like Clinton dying.

 

[Foolmewunz]

And there's one more weapon the Democrats haven't deployed yet; the still quite popular (increasingly so, in fact) Barack Obama. He can't say anything while the nomination is still being contested, but once Sanders suspends his campaign (or, at worst, after the convention) you can be sure that he'll hit the hustings for Hillary. His convention keynote speech will be a thing of beauty.

Yeah, if you saw his performance at the White House Correspondents dinner he was already tearing into Trump. Can we safely say that he very likely hates Trump? And the great thing is that his delivery is like he's talking to a wayward underclassman at school. He does haughty condescension real well and Donald will not be able to resist counter-attacking with petty crap. If Obama stays above it and just laughs at him, as we would've hoped all the press had done, it'll wreck Donald.

 

[Fudbucker]

1 and 2 can be dismissed out of hand. Given proportional allocation of delegates, even 70-30 wouldn't be enough to stop Clinton from clinching. There isn't going to be any indictment; Trump has a better chance of being indicted for fraud for his Trump University shenanigans. The only way Sanders could get the nomination would be some "black swan" event, like Clinton dying.

Bernie needs 67% of remaining pledged delegates to get a majority.

(1) certainly can't be dismissed out of hand. Clinton has been dogged by scandals her entire political career. If anyone's nomination has a chance of being derailed by a major scandal, it's Clinton's.

(2) You can assert there won't be an indictment all you want, it doesn't make it true. We know that FBI investigations can (and often do) end in indictments. You don't know what the FBI knows, neither do I. An indictment is possible and would likely end Clinton's candidacy. It wouldn't even take an indictment. The FBI would simply have to recommend criminal charges be filed. Clinton would never recover from that.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

"post-nomination bump"? The convention hasn't even happened yet!

You might want to read about it before dismissing it given there is a history of the trend. All of Trump's competitors dropped out. It was a de facto win at that point.

 

[Fudbucker]

I'm not defending Hillary, I'm pointing out that your bias has you creating a bunch of illegitimate rules that when applied to other people produce worse results that when applied to Hillary, but you refuse to answer this.

And you're forgetting the Clinton of 2008 is not the same Clinton as 2016. She hadn't had a disastrous tenure as SecState, she wasn't being investigated by the FBI, she hadn't gotten huge amounts of money for speeches to big banks.

"The speech in 2013 was one of three Clinton made on behalf of Goldman Sachs. According to public records, Clinton gave 92 speeches between 2013 and 2015. Her standard fee is $225,000, and she collected $21.6 million dollars in just under two years. Clinton made 8 speeches to big banks, netting $1.8 million, according to a CNN analysis."
http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/20/news/economy/hillary-clinton-goldman-sachs/

That was politically a very stupid thing to do. After 2008, people HATED Wall Street and Clinton decides she's going to make tens of millions giving speeches to big banks? Seriously? How tone deaf can she be? And now people see her as a phony Wall Street shill, and she can't put away an old Socialist. Terrible candidate is terrible.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Bernie needs 67% of remaining pledged delegates to get a majority.....

No, he needs 85% of the remaining pledged delegates to get a majority of pledged, then half of superdelegates to come to his side. Without a majority of votes, his weak argument that he's stronger against Trump is not going to result in a mass defection of supers from Clinton to him.

There are 780 pledged delegates left and he's behind by 274. Half plus 274 is 664 and that is 85% of the remaining pledges.


You really need to move past that denial stage of grief. You are only postponing the inevitable.