Hillary Clinton is Done: part 2

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Why should that matter? If you believe in statistics, and you should, then they give the same answer.




The highlighted word is key. The largest source of discrepancy between polls and election results is due to the fact that polls represent the electorate's preferences (as well as propensity to vote) at a particular point in time, which is not election day. Have you ever noticed that exit polls tend to be much more accurate than pre-election polls?

Right now, the superdelegates are reporting their preferences before voting day. Those preferences could change, especially if any more negative information comes out regarding Hillary's chances versus Trump in the general election.
You seem unaware that a politician declaring that they will vote a certain way is different than an anonymous poll respondent saying which way they are leaning (or even several hundred anonymous respondents).

Please look up the voting history of the Supers, compare how they switch, and count how many Sanders would need to switch.

In case you can't or won't do that, as far as I know, the largest switch was 30 50, in 2008 from Clinton to Obama when Obama also had the majority of pledged delegates. Sanders needs over 400 to switch, and he doesnt have a majority of either the delegates or votes.
 
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You seem unaware that a politician declaring that they will vote a certain way is different than an anonymous poll respondent saying which way they are leaning (or even several hundred anonymous respondents).

Please look up the voting history of the Supers, compare how they switch, and count how many Sanders would need to switch.

In case you can't or won't do that, as far as I know, the largest switch was 30 50, in 2008 from Clinton to Obama when Obama also had the majority of pledged delegates. Sanders needs over 400 to switch, and he doesnt have a majority of either the delegates or votes.

Obama didn't have the cloud of an FBI investigation floating over his head in 2008. All I'm really saying is that Bernie is not at all being irrational by staying in the race. He wants to make sure that if Hillary goes down (and this is a legitimate possibility), that no other prominent Democrat comes swooping in to take the nomination from him.

Even if you think that an indictment for mishandling classified information (or a recommendation for indictment by the FBI) won't derail her nomination, and I don't think that's unreasonable, you have to also be confident that the FBI hasn't uncovered some really bad stuff. I am not so confident that Hillary has avoided doing some really bad stuff. Both she and her husband seem to think the normal rules don't apply to them.

Hell, I keep my nose so clean that you could confidently eat out of my nostril, but I would still be sweating bullets if the FBI were investigating me.
 
Obama didn't have the cloud of an FBI investigation floating over his head in 2008. All I'm really saying is that Bernie is not at all being irrational by staying in the race. He wants to make sure that if Hillary goes down (and this is a legitimate possibility), that no other prominent Democrat comes swooping in to take the nomination from him.

Even if you think that an indictment for mishandling classified information (or a recommendation for indictment by the FBI) won't derail her nomination, and I don't think that's unreasonable, you have to also be confident that the FBI hasn't uncovered some really bad stuff. I am not so confident that Hillary has avoided doing some really bad stuff. Both she and her husband seem to think the normal rules don't apply to them.

Hell, I keep my nose so clean that you could confidently eat out of my nostril, but I would still be sweating bullets if the FBI were investigating me.

If after losing the nomination that badly I hung around hoping my opponent got disqualified I would be so embarrassed by my shame I would probably run into a forest and kill myself.
 
If after losing the nomination that badly I hung around hoping my opponent got disqualified I would be so embarrassed by my shame I would probably run into a forest and kill myself.

Well, that would certainly reduce your chances of getting the nomination.
 
CLinton finished strong. Sanders will probably take a couple days to suspend his campaign, but I don't think he's going to be a problem.
 
CA is huge surprise. I chose 51-53% in the poll thread, figuring Sanders had held so many well attended rallies.

The true believers go to rallies. A far wider population votes.

A bit of a surprise for me as well. Most of the polls had it very close, within a few points. I called for a larger spread (although I voted for Sanders) because that was the general mood here. With all the talk about how much Hillary is disliked, it should be remembered that she's been running for president for a long, long time. She's built her base over years. Sanders only had a dozen months to make his case.
 
A bit of a surprise for me as well. Most of the polls had it very close, within a few points. I called for a larger spread (although I voted for Sanders) because that was the general mood here. With all the talk about how much Hillary is disliked, it should be remembered that she's been running for president for a long, long time. She's built her base over years.

It's also the fact that this whole "Everyone hates Hillary" is a creation of the media, reflecting the right wing.

All this stuff of "neither of the candidates are acceptable" is a bunch of nonsense. As the polls and primaries and delegates show, Hillary has really strong support among democrats. She didn't win by attrition, she is the candidate because that is who the majority of democrats want.

That the right can't stand her, and their level of hatred for her goes above and beyond any candidate gaining the nomination (yes, including Obama, because they've had 20 years to build their hatred). But that does not reflect the democratic side. From that POV, she is the nominee. She is the one most wanted and expected. That's why no one else ran. Because she was a good option, and she lived up to it in winning the nomination.

Meanwhile, on the republican side, while Trump won by attrition, he still doesn't have the support of the majority of the party. One year ago, the suggestion that Trump would be the nominee was met with laughter. Now, among republicans, it's met with disgust.

So don't buy this "no one likes either candidate" narrative created by the right wing. Just because the republicans don't like their candidate does not mean that to be true for the democrats. Most democrats would be really happy with Clinton as president, and not just v Trump. Shoot, the Bern Bots have been complaining that her nomination was a coronation, as opposed to a race. Yes, because that is because most democrats want her to be President. For pete's sake, she almost got there 8 years ago. Clearly, she is a very popular candidate for the democrats.

You can't say that about the republicans. Even a lot of those that will vote for Trump won't do it because they support him, but only because it is against Hillary. Most are completely bamboozled as to how this clown got nominated.

That's their problem, not a general election problem. No, there are no candidates that any self-respecting republican can support. That just isn't true for democrats. My #1 choice for president is among the final candidates. And that view is not uncommon among the democrats in the US.

This whole "everyone hates Hillary" narrative is from the right wing.
 
But who's the unfavorables?

I don't give a rat's fart if republicans view Hillary as unfavorable.

The link I posted is an aggregate from a number of sources which are reflected under the graphic. I assume the polls reflect a more general slice of demographics.

That said, I do see your point. I did a search on her favorability among Democrats, but couldn't come up with anything within the last month. I did find this, which reflects the same lower view . . . although, that seems more a reflection of Hillary v. Sanders, rather than Hillary on her own.

http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/190787/clinton-image-among-democrats-new-low.aspx
 
This is a few months old:

Majorities of most subgroups view her unfavorably as well: men 56%, women 53%, 18-29 year olds 59%, 50-64 year olds 58%, 63% of those over 65, 85% of Republicans, 62% of independents,
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnzog...-unfavorable-vs-mrs-unfavorable/#7ecd57fd66f1
Yeah, and most of those people are ideological Republicans that don't like to call themselves Republicans. Remember that most independents voted for Mitt Romney in 2012.
 
Obama didn't have the cloud of an FBI investigation floating over his head in 2008. All I'm really saying is that Bernie is not at all being irrational by staying in the race. He wants to make sure that if Hillary goes down (and this is a legitimate possibility), that no other prominent Democrat comes swooping in to take the nomination from him.

If he suspends his campaign, he still retains his pledged delegates, and can swoop in and save us if Hillary is indicted. There's no need for him to continue actively campaigning.
 
BUt all she needs is for people to dislike her less then Trump. That should not be hard to do.

She doesn't need anyone to like her, really, because a Trump presidency is so unthinkable. I don't like her, but I'll probably end up voting for her.
 
I think that many disgruntled Republicans will vote Democrat or Libertarian in November.

When you've got a very conservative Senator like Lindsey Graham saying things like this,


Donald is an existential crisis that they're going to have to come to grips with. Remember that every time he opens his mouth, that is the best he's ever going to be and it's only going to get worse from there as his poll numbers tank. Their base has left them with two unpalatable options for the rank and file.
 
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