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Hillary Campaign Deathwatch

Brainster

Penultimate Amazing
Brainster
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May 26, 2006
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Seems premature to me, but Drudge suggests that she may stun us all and drop out.

Facing a double-digit defeat in New Hampshire, a sudden collapse in national polls and an expected fund-raising drought, Senator Hillary Clinton is preparing for a tough decision: Does she get out of the race? And when?!

"She can't take multiple double-digit losses in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada," laments one top campaign insider to the DRUDGE REPORT. "If she gets too badly embarrassed, it will really harm her. She doesn't want the Clinton brand to be damaged with back-to-back-to-back defeats."

Meanwhile, Democrat hopeful John Edwards has confided to senior staff that he is staying in the race because Hillary "could soon be out."
Click to expand...

Remember there were reports that Thompson was going to drop out after Iowa; those turned out to be false. Obviously the Edwards camp has the most to gain from spreading this report (and, oddly John McCain).

At Intrade, Barack is now considered the prohibitive favorite to win New Hampshire, and about 66% to win the nomination. Real Clear Politic's average of ten recent NH polls has Obama in front by 7.6 percentage points; in none of those polls was Hillary the leader.
 
Let's hope eh?

But being a typical Brit cynic, I can only say that I sadly believe the idiots will rise from the ashes and vote her in.

The sad thing is, if..say.. Ian Duncan Smith became PM I could leave the country. If Clinton became President of the US I would have to leave the planet.
 
Its still a month from Feb 5. All Barack needs is a Gary Hart moment to lose it.
 
There's something I really don't understand - why did Clinton's support suddenly drop in New Hampshire after Obama won in Iowa? Is it just coincidence or did NH change it's vote because she lost in Iowa? Why would New Hampshire change who it wants to vote for based on Iowa's decision? Anyone?
 
corplinx said:
Its still a month from Feb 5. All Barack needs is a Gary Hart moment to lose it.
Click to expand...

How very very true.

I don't think it will happen, but it's true.

After all, if Obama can walk away with victories in the next few primaries before Feb. 5, it will almost be a non-issue. By that point, he will be the prohibitive favorite for the nom.

I honestly believe that this could be the election year where young people (fellow members of the 18-25 age bracket) finally pull in respective numbers when it comes time to vote. Someone like Obama is pushing this trend, I think. Just look at the Iowa Caucus. Tons of young, first-timers turned out. The same is happening in NH.
 
latent aaaack said:
There's something I really don't understand - why did Clinton's support suddenly drop in New Hampshire after Obama won in Iowa? Is it just coincidence or did NH change it's vote because she lost in Iowa? Why would New Hampshire change who it wants to vote for based on Iowa's decision? Anyone?
Click to expand...
I think most of the vote shifting is due to people who liked Obama but felt he wasn't electable but upon seeing that a state like Iowa can support him overwhelmingly that he is a viable candidate. There also is a "jump on the bandwagon" type of behavior as part of the reason. It also could be that upon reflection they realize that Hillary may not be electable and that they like Obama's message. It is a combination of these 3 factors that has caused the immediate shift. Hillary is toast barring no Gary Hart or Edwin Muskie moment. Actually only something on the level of Hart would do it. Even that may only make Edwards the nominee. Of course one shouldn't underestimate the political abilities of the Clintons (the only problem with that is that Bill is not running).
 
TriskettheKid said:
How very very true.

I don't think it will happen, but it's true.

After all, if Obama can walk away with victories in the next few primaries before Feb. 5, it will almost be a non-issue. By that point, he will be the prohibitive favorite for the nom.

I honestly believe that this could be the election year where young people (fellow members of the 18-25 age bracket) finally pull in respective numbers when it comes time to vote. Someone like Obama is pushing this trend, I think. Just look at the Iowa Caucus. Tons of young, first-timers turned out. The same is happening in NH.
Click to expand...
It is amazing the number of young voters for Obama in Iowa. No one has EVER been able to do that. It has always been a political axiom that young people never vote. We'll see if he can repeat that in New Hampshire and on.
 
latent aaaack said:
There's something I really don't understand - why did Clinton's support suddenly drop in New Hampshire after Obama won in Iowa? Is it just coincidence or did NH change it's vote because she lost in Iowa? Why would New Hampshire change who it wants to vote for based on Iowa's decision? Anyone?
Click to expand...

Everybody loves a winner. Remember 2004? Dean was the leader in almost every state going into Iowa; he got crushed (third was a crushing defeat), uttered his scream and was never heard from again.
 
ScanningFool said:
It is amazing the number of young voters for Obama in Iowa. No one has EVER been able to do that. It has always been a political axiom that young people never vote. We'll see if he can repeat that in New Hampshire and on.
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Not really. Young voters did vote and were involved in previous elections (look at Robert Kennedy), it's just that my age bracket has become somewhat...apathetic since the 70s.

Even though I went to a university like Tufts, I still found that I was one of the few who actually voted in elections other than the Presidential one. It was disheartening.

But with Obama....things are getting exciting. Getting people in my age bracket to actually vote, let alone vote in a PRIMARY, is unbelievable. I can't wait to see what the breakdown of age is going to be in the upcoming primaries.
 
ScanningFool said:
I think most of the vote shifting is due to people who liked Obama but felt he wasn't electable but upon seeing that a state like Iowa can support him overwhelmingly that he is a viable candidate.
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And a lot of that had to do with Hillary positioning herself as the "anointed" candidate and acting as if the primaries were simply a formality. A strategy that was successful up until Iowa. Coming in 3rd did a pretty good job of shattering that image.
 
While Hillary giving up would be nice, I doubt it will happen. She is still doing a whole lot better than Edwards.

She'll be in it for the long run. The earliest I could see her dropping out is February 5th if she is still losing by wide margins to Obama.

ETA: Actually, I've just started hearing about her crying.
 
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Speaking as a next door neighbor, I find Barack Obama much more appealing then Hillary.

I think the reason is clearly, as others have said, the mobilization of youth, combined with presenting independents with a legitimate option.

TAM:)
 
ScanningFool said:
Hillary is toast barring no... Edwin Muskie moment.
Click to expand...

Hillary just had her Muskie moment. She cried during an interview they are playing again and again. She feels sorry for herself, which to me shows she is not empathic toward those considering voting for her.

Hillary cries only after losing Iowa. If an enemy of America nukes Des Moines, how will she stay a strong leader if we, too, lose Iowa?
 
steverino said:
Hillary just had her Muskie moment. She cried during an interview they are playing again and again. She feels sorry for herself, which to me shows she is not empathic toward those considering voting for her.

Hillary cries only after losing Iowa. If an enemy of America nukes Des Moines, how will she stay a strong leader if we, too, lose Iowa?
Click to expand...
I think she should have stuck to perfumie, rather than trying Muskie. :p

DR
 
steverino said:
Hillary just had her Muskie moment. She cried during an interview they are playing again and again. She feels sorry for herself, which to me shows she is not empathic toward those considering voting for her.

Hillary cries only after losing Iowa. If an enemy of America nukes Des Moines, how will she stay a strong leader if we, too, lose Iowa?
Click to expand...

I think this will be the nail in the coffin...no one wants a beggar as president, and crying to drum up support is, well, begging.

TAM:)
 
Okay, so in the sentence just after her "touching" moment she attacked Obama. She made some bizarre negative analogy about King. And she invoked Al Qaeda and the threat of a terrorist attack as for why we should vote for her.

And that is before all the stuff that Bill is saying.

Just die (Politically, not actually).
 
I wonder what the rationale is for the claim that Clinton would be better equipped to deal with the al-Qaeda threat than Obama. I think what's most important in that regard is good judgment and the willingness to adhere to a principled stance in the face of opposition. Well, that's my gut feeling.
 
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