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Higher than "chance"

Interesting Ian said:
Then the cards weren't shuffled properly. It ain't gonna happen by pure chance.
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"Ain't gonna happen by pure chance" suggests you're claiming it's an impossibility. The event is merely very, very improbable. It could happen by pure chance, but it's not likely. Given the limited information I have on the situation, however, an improper shuffle or a stacked deck are more likely scenarios.
 
CurtC said:
I was about to post the same thing as Garrette. We have four possibilities, as far as I can see:

1. Suezoled is psychic.
2. Suezoled just got really really lucky that one time.
3. Trish played a trick on Suezoled.
4. Suezoled misremembered the event, or is lying.

Given the staggering odds of this feat, I believe that the "lucky" scenario is the least likely of the four. Even less than #1. Number 4, misremembering (I'm not accusing her of lying) is way more believable, and #3, a simple trick, tops that.
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For some reason, I am reminded of one of the early scenes in the movie Ghostbusters where Bill Murray is doing screening for psychics. One nerdy guy is getting everything right, and Bill is saying "wrong, wrong, wrong...", but to the gorgeous co-ed, he keeps saying "right, right again, you are amazing..." and such, even though she gets each one wrong.

Did Trish ever try to mess with your mind, Suez?
 
BronzeDog said:
"Ain't gonna happen by pure chance" suggests you're claiming it's an impossibility.
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It's possible that a person could get his head cut off, yet for that person not to die and for him/her to carry on with his/her day to day activities.

{shrugs}

So what? Am I not allowed to say "that ain't gonna happen"?
 
Tricky said:
For some reason, I am reminded of one of the early scenes in the movie Ghostbusters where Bill Murray is doing screening for psychics. One nerdy guy is getting everything right, and Bill is saying "wrong, wrong, wrong...", but to the gorgeous co-ed, he keeps saying "right, right again, you are amazing..." and such, even though she gets each one wrong.

Did Trish ever try to mess with your mind, Suez?
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Actually, as I remember the movie, both of them got mixed answers. Murray just didn't show the card when the girl missed, or the guy got it right. When the girl got one right, or the guy got one wrong, he would show the card.
 
Interesting Ian said:
It's possible that a person could get his head cut off, yet for that person not to die and for him/her to carry on with his/her day to day activities.
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Under what bizarre definition of "possible" is this so?

We can actually quantify the probability that four people get dealt four perfect suits, and it works out to be tiny, but not-zero. I don't see any (that's any, no matter how tiny) chance for a headless person to behave in the way you describe.
 
Interesting Ian said:
It's possible that a person could get his head cut off, yet for that person not to die and for him/her to carry on with his/her day to day activities.

{shrugs}

So what? Am I not allowed to say "that ain't gonna happen"?
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Technically, that might be true, but my admittedly hasty probability estimate says that's orders of magnitute less likely than the four suit deal. But considering we are talking about probability, you don't want to suggest something with a small but finite chance of happening is impossible. You just mention that the improper shuffle is more likely.
 
Interesting Ian said:
Here's the thread. But everyone was too stupid to understand what I was talking about.
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Translated from the original Ian-speak : "I didn't understand enough maths to comprehend the answers I was given, so I just started insulting people instead."
 
new drkitten said:
Originally posted by Interesting Ian
It's possible that a person could get his head cut off, yet for that person not to die and for him/her to carry on with his/her day to day activities.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Under what bizarre definition of "possible" is this so?
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Just straightforward possible as in it possibly could happen. Against physical laws you say? Certainly, but there again we do not know with incorrigible certitude that such physical laws are Universal and will apply forevermore. We feel that the scenario I painted is astonishing unlikely, although it can't of course be quantified.
 
Interesting Ian said:
Just straightforward possible as in it possibly could happen.
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Ah, yes. Proof by blatant assertion.

You can't quantify it, you can't describe it, you can't even imagine a circumstance under which it occurs, but yet it remains "possible" because you can string the words together.

Let me counter that, then. I spoke to God a few minutes ago and she told me that it was impossible and that she was going to send you to hell for telling lies.
 
new drkitten said:
Translated from the original Ian-speak : "I didn't understand enough maths to comprehend the answers I was given, so I just started insulting people instead."
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I comprehended their answers perfectly. I realised before I started the thread that their argument simply doesn't work. I was amazed that they couldn't understand they were wrong though.
 
Attempt to summarize my thoughts quickly: Yes, using the Big Bang as a reference point, the chances of your ancestors combining DNA to come up with yours was very improbable. However, there are lots and lots of other possible DNA combos out there in hypothetical land who aren't around to appreciate the improbability of their existence. The only difference between you and those hypothetical Ians is that you're the one lucky lotto winner.

An even quicker summary: Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
 
BronzeDog said:
Attempt to summarize my thoughts quickly: Yes, using the Big Bang as a reference point, the chances of your ancestors combining DNA to come up with yours was very improbable. However, there are lots and lots of other possible DNA combos out there in hypothetical land who aren't around to appreciate the improbability of their existence. The only difference between you and those hypothetical Ians is that you're the one lucky lotto winner.

An even quicker summary: Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
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That's the same argument as they employed, and as I very patiently explain in the thread, it fails.
 
Tricky said:
For some reason, I am reminded of one of the early scenes in the movie Ghostbusters where Bill Murray is doing screening for psychics. One nerdy guy is getting everything right, and Bill is saying "wrong, wrong, wrong...", but to the gorgeous co-ed, he keeps saying "right, right again, you are amazing..." and such, even though she gets each one wrong.

Did Trish ever try to mess with your mind, Suez?
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No. Trish was straightlaced. I was the kooky one.
 
Wow, Ian. I read some of that thread.

Does it... hurt, being you?

Look, someone was born. Turned out to be you. That's it.

There was no way of predicting in, say, 1900, that you would be here today, arguing about the probability of exactly that. But people get born all the time. It happened on one occasion to be you. So? Once you are born, the chance of you having been born is 1, a certainty, so you cannot argue that it was the slightest bit unlikely.

All babies are equally unlikely, but that doesn't stop them from popping out after nine months.
 
CurtC said:
I calculate the probability of that to happen to be about 1.3 x 10^30, which is way higher.
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Nitpick: I get 4.5*10^-28, or one chance in 2.2*10^27, about 590 times better odds than you got.

My reasoning is this: There are (4!*13!*13!*13!*13!) hands in which each person gets a complete suit, out of 52! possible hands. That's because you can deal the suit in any order to each person (13!) and it doesn't matter which person gets which suit (4!).
 
Read about Ian's looney with the card-drawing bomb. Here's an extension of the story.

Looney with a good grasp of probability: "Yeah, it came up in your favor each time. I've done this with googols of googols of people. You're one of the few billions of lucky people. That may seem like a lot, but it's a tiny fraction of the people who could have survived but didn't. No one ever thinks much about losing lotto tickets."
 
rppa said:
Nitpick: I get 4.5*10^-28, or one chance in 2.2*10^27, about 590 times better odds than you got.
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You're right. I came up with the same paper figures with the same logic, but when it came time to divide by 4! in the calculator, I multiplied by 4! instead. Leading to a difference factor of 24*24, or 576.
 
Interesting Ian said:
Just straightforward possible as in it possibly could happen. Against physical laws you say? Certainly, but there again we do not know with incorrigible certitude that such physical laws are Universal and will apply forevermore. We feel that the scenario I painted is astonishing unlikely, although it can't of course be quantified.
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No it couldn't possibly happen in any conceivable way according to everything we know about the universe.
But the cards example could perfectly easily within the known physical laws. Indeed any time you deal cards out to four people the chances of them getting the cards they end up with are the exact same number as getting four perfect suits. It just happens to look random to us.
If the rules of a card game were to get 13 different cards then all of a sudden those cards would take on significance to us.
So not only can something that unlikely possibly happen, it happens every single time you deal the cards.

Whereas the head cutting off thing has never ever happened.

Hmmm, every single time... never...

That is a hard one to compare isn't it Ian.
 
I've been reading that other thread. I see you didn't understand probability then and still don't now.

You have even had the same damn questions asked of you back then:

Originally posted by Donks
Is there a specific limit for this chance below which no specific individual could, in effect, win?
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I have never met, read about or even heard of anyone with a shallower learning curve than yourself Ian.

How did you ever learn that food goes in your mouth?
 
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