Herman Cain leads by 20 points!

Here's an oddity. The polls i usually check show a change from yesterday:

Romney 27.0%
Gingrich 17.0
Santorum 16.2
Paul 12.4
Perry 5.6
Huntsman 2.8

So, it would seem that Gingrich has gained a bit from Santorum, Paul is relatively unchanged and that Huntsman is still trailing everyone. However, the voting in the New Hampshire primary breaks down as follows:

Romney 37.3%
Paul 23.3
Huntsman 17.3
Gingrich 9.9
Santorum 9.8
other 2.4

So, it would seem that Huntsman and Paul should both have risen. I guess I'll check the polls tomorrow. Perhaps they haven't caught up with the vote.
 
Okay, the polls seem to have caught up, somewhat, with the New Hampshire primary results. The second set of numbers are today's readings; the first set are yesterday's:

Romney 27.0%-----27.2%
Gingrich 17.0-----16.6
Santorum 16.2-----15.8
Paul 12.4-----12.6
Perry 5.6-----5.8
Huntsman 2.8-----3.0

It looks, more and more, that Romney will be the nominee. What surprises me (though nothing in Republican politics should) is that anybody would still be supporting Perry, that Paul and Huntsman didn't get enough of a bump from the New Hampshire results to pass Santorum. I also find myself wondering if Newt still thinks he has a chance. Santorum must know that he has no chance of taking the nomination. It seems to me that his goal must be to win leverage for his conservative agenda. I keep hoping that Paul will bolt and run as a Libertarian.
 
Looking at my usual source, I was intrigued by the line graph there, which showed the surges of popularity of various candidates. First Perry, then Cain, then Gingrich surged in the polls, only to spectacularly collapse. Santorum's performance seems to be doing the same, though on a lesser degree. Bachmann's and Huntsman's lines have consistently pittered along near the bottom of the graph. Paul is also consistently in the lower middle regions. Romney's performance has been consistently high. However, that means that he pulls about 25% of the polls, give or take a few points.

This would seem to point to a rather lackluster candidacy. While the tea-baggers and Republicans with Libertarian leanings will support him, they'll do so only grudgingly. Personally, I'd love to see Paul bolt and run as a Libertarian. I only hope the tea-baggers will support him in this.
 
Well, it looks more and more like Romney will be the Republican nominee. According to the average of the various polls, he's increasing his lead:

Romney 31.2%
Gingrich 16.2
Santorum 14.5
Paul 13.0
Perry 6.5
Huntsman 3.3
undecided 15.3

This poll doesn't reflect Huntsman's withdrawing and endorsing Romney. If we add his 3.3% to Romney's 31.2%, then Romney has 34.5. It would seem likely that Perry would soon drop out as well, though who he'd back against Romney is not so easy to figure. From what headlines I've seen, it appears that the Tea Party activists and the religious right, while they both oppose Romney can't seem to agree on a candidate both would support. A simplified version of the polls would look like this:

Romney (+ Huntsman) 34.5%
Anybody but Romney 34.0
Gingrich 16.2
undecided 15.3

Gingrich could be in the position of king-maker. Add his 16.2% to either Romney or some consolidated opposition to Romney, and that group will have over 50%:

Romney + Gingrich = 50.7%
Anyone but Romney + Gingrich = 50.2%
 
My usual source has finally taken cognizance of the fact that Huntsman has dropped out of the race. The new standings are:

Romney 33.7%
Gingrich 18.5
Santorum 14.8
Paul 14.0
Perry 6.8
undecided 12.2

ETA: It would appear that Gingrich picked up some of Huntsman's supporters. I seriously doubt that he'll get the nomination but I still see him as a potential kingmaker:

Romney 33.7% + Gingrich 18.5% = 52.2%
anyone by Romney 35.6% + Gingrich 18.5% = 54.1%

Of course, this assumes the supporters of Perry, Paul and Santorum could all agree on pooling their votes for a single candidate, which remains to be seen.
 
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The polls I usually quote do not, as of this morning, reflect Perry dropping out of the race and supporting Gingrich, though they do reflect some changes - mainly softening of support for candidates across the board - as noted in the second group of figures:

Romney 33.7% -- 31.2%
Gingrich 18.5 -- 18.3
Santorum 14.8 -- 14.5
Paul 14.0 -- 13.0
Perry 6.8 -- 6.7
undecided 12.2 -- 16.3

Since Perry is now endorsing Gingrich, his 6.7% + Newt's 18.3% would give Gingrich 25.0%:

Romney 31.2%
Gingrich 25.0
Santorum 14.5
Paul 13.0
undecided 16.3

Perry's support for Gingrich as a conservative opposing that hideous "moderate," Romney, changes my perception of Gingrich as a potential broker between Romney and the hard-right conservatives. He would now seem to be poised to be their champion. I would assume Santorum's bubble of support from Iowa would be the next to pop. Should he give his votes to Newt, Gingrich could return to the front-runner spot:

Gingrich 39.5%
Romney 31.2
Paul 13.0
undecided 16.3

Thus, the Republican convention could be interesting, after all. If Paul decides to support Gingrich, once the latter has absorbed Santorum's supporters, he would have 52.5%, at least in the polls, if not the delegates.

ETA: The polls changed even while I was writing this post. It's now:

Romney 33.1%
Gingrich 18.4
Santorum 14.4
Paul 14.3
Perry 6.9
undecided 12.9

It's rather weird to see Perry gain a little after he's dropped out.
 
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The polls continue to change. In their third iteration of this morning, they show the following change (second set of numbers) compared to what is was only about an hour ago (first set of numbers):

Romney 33.1% -- 31.6%
Gingrich 18.4 -- 19.4
Paul 14.3 -- 14.4
Santorum 14.4 -- 14.2
Perry 6.9 -- 6.6
undecided 12.9 -- 13.8

Notably, Santorum has begun to fall behind Paul, while Gingrich has gained on Romney. If we add Perry's number to Gingrich, we get 6.6% + 19.4% = 26.0%. If Gingrich manages to also harvest Santorum's 14.2%, then 26.0% + 14.2% = 40.2%, which would, again, make him the front runner:

Gingrich 40.2
Romney 31.6
Paul 14.4
undecided 13.8
 
There's not much change in the polls today (third set of figures). They still list Perry. Gingrich has gained slightly on Romney.

Romney 33.1% -- 31.6% -- 31.0%
Gingrich 18.4 -- 19.4 -- 20.0
Paul 14.3 -- 14.4 -- 14.4
Santorum 14.4 -- 14.2 -- 14.2
Perry 6.9 -- 6.6 -- 6.3
undecided 12.9 -- 13.8 -- 14.1

Should Gingrich absorb Perry's remaining 6.3% and if Santorum drops out in Newt's favor he will end up ahead of Romney (20.0 + 14.2 + 6.3 =40.5%):

Gingrich 40.5%
Romney 31.0
Paul 14.4
undecided 14.1
 
TimCallahan said:
The polls continue to change.
Click to expand...

So? Is there an update available for this (poorly-titled) thread?

ETA: while the polls put Gingrich ahead of Romney, the oddsmakers have a very, very different opinion.

Bet $20 on Gingrich and win $180 if he takes the nomination.
Bet $20 on Romney and win $1 if he takes the nomination.
 
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