Herman Cain leads by 20 points!

National poll results posted today (10/12/11) at this website are as follows:

Cain 30%
Romney 22%
Gingrich 15%
Perry 14%
Paul 5%
Bachman 5%
Huntsman 2%
Santorum 1%
Total 94%

Of course, these polls will shift considerably as more primaries take place. However, if the polls represent convention delegates, then those with smaller numbers might well back one or the other of the front-runners, Romney an Cain. So, if the more pragmatic Gingrich throws his 15% to Romney, and Huntsman does likewise with his 2%, that would give Romney 39%. If Perry (14%), Bachman (5%) and Santorum (1%) give their votes to Cain (30%), he would have 50% of the votes. It the undecided 6% split evenly, that would leave Cain at 53% and Romney at 42%. At those levels, even if Ron Paul were to back Romney with his 5%, giving Romney 47%, Cain would still take the nomination.

The problem with such an extrapolation is that Romney seems likely to win the New hampshire primary, which usually bumps it victor up in the polls in excess of the number of delegates won. Thus, Romney could surge ahead at that point.

Also, the various polls don't agree with each other.. here's the most recent CBS poll:

Romney 17%
Cain 17%
Perry 12%
Gingrich 8%
Paul 7%
Bachman 4%
Santorum 3%
Huntsman 2%
Undecided 18%

This gives, including the undecided, us only 88%. However, what is interesting is that the poll has Romney and Cain tied.
 
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Neally said:
And as been pointed out before, you can never make it go away no matter how much you try to redistribute the wealth. Your utopia Cuba, has put everyone into a state of poverty, with the exception of Fidel and his friends. Oh but wait, they have free medical care...
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Oh snap! You really put the burn down. Except I am doubtful that a single poster in the past 2 years has recommended in any way that the U.S. use Cuba as a model.1
We do find that countries like Sweden, Denmark, The Netherlands, etc. recognize that charity is inadequate to deal with the problems we are discussing, so they place significantly higher tax rates on the wealthy to fund a medical system that does not bankrupt sick families.

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(1) I do actually remember some JREF posters who were advocating communism a few years back, but they were teenagers whom no one here took seriously.
 
Ladewig said:
Oh snap! You really put the burn down. Except I am doubtful that a single poster in the past 2 years has recommended in any way that the U.S. use Cuba as a model.
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Have you read every post by bikerdruid in the last 2 years? I didn't think so. He has clearly stated that he admires Cuba's communist government and is a self-described socialist/communist.
 
Ladewig said:
Oh snap! You really put the burn down. Except I am doubtful that a single poster in the past 2 years has recommended in any way that the U.S. use Cuba as a model.1
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I have no clue where comments like his come from, yet I read them regularly. It's tough to take people seriously who spout such nonsense, so I don't :)
 
DavidJames said:
I have no clue where comments like his come from, yet I read them regularly. It's tough to take people seriously who spout such nonsense, so I don't :)
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It appears that I do not spend enough time in the Politics subforum to accurately describe what is or isn't discussed. I withdraw the claim.
 
Just to show how ephemeral polls can be, the Rasmussen Poll of August 16 gave these results:

Perry 29%
Romney 18%
Bachman 13%

Since that time Perry has fallen to between 12 and 14%, while Bachman has faded to between 4 and 5%. Romney has remained in a high position, between 17 and 22%. If he wins the California primary, he'll be head and shoulders above the others. However, at least one straw poll I perused had California going to Ron Paul.
 
cwalner said:
The problem is what you are criticizing Obama for, applies even more so to Cain. This is why I, personally, reject the meme of valuing political outsiders or considering business experience applies directly to political positions. Cain my have experience dealing with employees and boards of trustees, but that is nothing like dealing with Congress. Cain has no experience either in governing and thus dealing with a legislature, or every have been in a legislature himself. I still remember the reasons why Perot was not considered a serious candidate. He ran from the exact same position that Cain is running from now.

I might have disagreed with Bush's policies, but his experience as governor of TX taught him how to deal with a legislature, and he was very effective, from the start, in getting his policies enacted. Romney has a similar experience. Cain has nothing remotely like this.
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There's some truth in what you are saying, and I've previously noted that experience as a governor was excellent prep for POTUS - that senate or congress was, IMHO, NOT good prep.

But today a lot of people feel the system is broke, so they may want someone from "outside the system" for that reason alone.

As for your analogy to Obama, let me say that if someone was incompetent then no amount of experience would help them get the job done....
 
TimCallahan said:
National poll results posted today (10/12/11) at this website are as follows:

Cain 30%
Romney 22%
Gingrich 15%
Perry 14%
Paul 5%
Bachman 5%
Huntsman 2%
Santorum 1%
Total 94%

Of course, these polls will shift considerably as more primaries take place. However, if the polls represent convention delegates, then those with smaller numbers might well back one or the other of the front-runners, Romney an Cain. So, if the more pragmatic Gingrich throws his 15% to Romney, and Huntsman does likewise with his 2%, that would give Romney 39%. If Perry (14%), Bachman (5%) and Santorum (1%) give their votes to Cain (30%), he would have 50% of the votes. It the undecided 6% split evenly, that would leave Cain at 53% and Romney at 42%. At those levels, even if Ron Paul were to back Romney with his 5%, giving Romney 47%, Cain would still take the nomination.

The problem with such an extrapolation is that Romney seems likely to win the New hampshire primary, which usually bumps it victor up in the polls in excess of the number of delegates won. Thus, Romney could surge ahead at that point.

Also, the various polls don't agree with each other.. here's the most recent CBS poll:

Romney 17%
Cain 17%
Perry 12%
Gingrich 8%
Paul 7%
Bachman 4%
Santorum 3%
Huntsman 2%
Undecided 18%

This gives, including the undecided, us only 88%. However, what is interesting is that the poll has Romney and Cain tied.
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The only real thing you can conclude from these polls is Cain is a frontrunner with Romney and Gingrich is beginning to gain some traction.
 
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