Herman Cain leads by 20 points!

[TimCallahan]

I found the following average of (again) widely varying polls here.

Romney 23.9%
Cain 23.4
Perry 12.9
Gingrich 8.3
Paul 8.1
Bachman 4.9
Huntsman 1.7
Santorum1.7

This average of polls was compiled on 10/19/11.

A number of things are apparent:

1) Romney and Cain are still close

2) Those with a smaller, but substantial, percentages, such as Perry (12.9%), Gingrich (8.3 %) and Paul (8.1%) could have enormous leverage if the situation remains the same going into the convention. if Perry gives his 12.9% to Cain and Gingrich gives his 8.3% to Romney, then Cain would lead with 36.3% to Romney's 32.2%. That could put Paul in the position of king-maker. I he gives his 8.1% to Romney, then Romney will surge ahead of Cain at 40.3% to Cain's 36.3%. If Paul gives his support to Cain, then Cain will have 44.4%. Or, if Romney gets Paul's support, but Bachman gives her 4.9% to Cain, then he will 41.2% and have an edge on Romney. If Perry, Paul and Bachman all support Cain, he would have 48.3% and be on his way to winning the nomination.

3) The percentages above account for a total of 84.9% of those polled, leaving 15.1% still undecided. Should these swing one way or another, they could put either Romney or Cain over the top. If they split, things are wide open.

4) Finally, this is all idle speculation, and everything could, and probably will, change radically after the next few primaries. Remember that Mike Huckabee was an early favorite in the previous election's primaries, and that Perry was riding high only a few months ago.

 

[mhaze]

I found the following average of (again) widely varying polls here.

Romney 23.9%
Cain 23.4
Perry 12.9
Gingrich 8.3
Paul 8.1
Bachman 4.9
Huntsman 1.7
Santorum1.7
......

Sure is interesting how Gingrich sits back, makes the most profound comments, and never insults another person up on the stage.

Obviously the intellectual of the bunch, he is thinking, while they are playing.

 

[TubbaBlubba]

Yes, but only in the long term. Once the plan's start date is announced, people who were planning on buying new cars or major appliances in a year or two will buy them now instead. People will move up their vacation plans. Think of the boost to the economy.

As John Maynard Keynes once said, "In the long run, we are all dead."

 

[varwoche]

I think the person most surprised by Cain's surge is Cain. The idiot is just trying to sell a few books, and he winds up with a microscope up his ass.

If the political world hadn't become so crazy/stupid/Teaparty in the past four years, the things that come out of Cain's mouth would be off-the-meter astounding. Instead it's the new normal.

 

[The Don]

Sure is interesting how Gingrich sits back, makes the most profound comments, and never insults another person up on the stage.

Obviously the intellectual of the bunch, he is thinking, while they are playing.

Truly in the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king

 

[bikerdruid]

if the political world hadn't become so crazy/stupid/teaparty in the past four years, the things that come out of cain's mouth would be off-the-meter astounding. Instead it's the new normal.

bingo!!!

 

[MaGZ]

I think the person most surprised by Cain's surge is Cain. The idiot is just trying to sell a few books, and he winds up with a microscope up his ass.

If the political world hadn't become so crazy/stupid/Teaparty in the past four years, the things that come out of Cain's mouth would be off-the-meter astounding. Instead it's the new normal.

Bookseller Cain is what it’s all about. I doubt if any of the other candidates will call him on this and invite him to join the campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire.

 

[Regnad Kcin]

Sure is interesting how Gingrich sits back, makes the most profound comments, and never insults another person up on the stage.

Obviously the intellectual of the bunch, he is thinking, while they are playing.

I'll take "Damned With Faint Praise" for 50, Alex.

 

[TimCallahan]

Another day, another poll here (same site as yesterday) their average of various polls is now:

Cain 26.0 %
Romney 25.5
Perry 12.5
Gingrich 9.2
Paul 8.5
Bachman 4.8
Huntsman 2.0
Santorum 1.6
undecided 9.9

Romney + Gingrich + Huntsman = 36.7%
Cain + Perry + Bachman +Santorum = 44.9%

If Paul supports Romney: 36.7 + 8.5 = 45.2%, putting him ahead of Cain. If the undecideds split evenly at 4.95 each for Romney and Cain, Romney noses Cain out by barely a fraction of a percentage point: 50.15% to 49.85%.

If Paul supports Cain: 44.9 + 8.5 =53.4% putting Cain over the top, regardless of the undecided vote.

Of course, things aren't going to stay that way. With five more debates scheduled, there's plenty more opportunity for Perry to flounder and Bachman to continue to fade. My (non-monetary) bet is still on Romney, but with shaky support.

 

[bikerdruid]

Another day, another poll here (same site as yesterday) their average of various polls is now:

Cain 26.0 %
Romney 25.5
Perry 12.5
Gingrich 9.2
Paul 8.5
Bachman 4.8
Huntsman 2.0
Santorum 1.6
undecided 9.9

Romney + Gingrich + Huntsman = 36.7%
Cain + Perry + Bachman +Santorum = 44.9%

If Paul supports Romney: 36.7 + 8.5 = 45.2%, putting him ahead of Cain. If the undecideds split evenly at 4.95 each for Romney and Cain, Romney noses Cain out by barely a fraction of a percentage point: 50.15% to 49.85%.

If Paul supports Cain: 44.9 + 8.5 =53.4% putting Cain over the top, regardless of the undecided vote.

Of course, things aren't going to stay that way. With five more debates scheduled, there's plenty more opportunity for Perry to flounder and Bachman to continue to fade. My (non-monetary) bet is still on Romney, but with shaky support.

looks to be obama, term 2, in 2012.

 

[varwoche]

This week in Herman Cain:


When in a car with Cain, campaign staff have been instructed...

“Do not speak to him unless you are spoken to,” the memo said. link

Then there's this bizarre ad:

If only they'll nominate this highly entertaining imbecile.

 

[Bri]

Then there's this bizarre ad:

Oh, that one's downright normal compared to this thing:



-Bri

 

[Ladewig]

Oh, that one's downright normal compared to this thing:



-Bri

That's real.

Real strange.

 

[Regnad Kcin]

Then there's this bizarre ad:

If only they'll nominate this highly entertaining imbecile.

What is with the head-whip at :22?!

 

[leftysergeant]

Cain has the creepiest smile I have ever seen.

 

[Tricky]

Another day, another poll here (same site as yesterday) their average of various polls is now:

Cain 26.0 %
Romney 25.5
Perry 12.5
Gingrich 9.2
Paul 8.5
Bachman 4.8
Huntsman 2.0
Santorum 1.6
undecided 9.9

Romney + Gingrich + Huntsman = 36.7%
Cain + Perry + Bachman +Santorum = 44.9%

If Paul supports Romney: 36.7 + 8.5 = 45.2%, putting him ahead of Cain. If the undecideds split evenly at 4.95 each for Romney and Cain, Romney noses Cain out by barely a fraction of a percentage point: 50.15% to 49.85%.

If Paul supports Cain: 44.9 + 8.5 =53.4% putting Cain over the top, regardless of the undecided vote.

Of course, things aren't going to stay that way. With five more debates scheduled, there's plenty more opportunity for Perry to flounder and Bachman to continue to fade. My (non-monetary) bet is still on Romney, but with shaky support.

The thing is, you can't count on an endorsement to deliver all of your votes to the chosen candidate. While Paul and some other failed candidates might support Cain, there is still a reasonably sizable contingent of the GOP that will never support a black candidate, regardless of how anti-minority he speaks. I suspect that there are few if any Romney supporters who would vote based on race, so he's not going to lose any, but there are enough Bachmann, Santorum, Gingrinch and Perry supporters that are pure bigots that it will split their vote mostly to the remaining non-black candidate.

But I'm still really glad that Cain is running. He has forced many a racist to grit his teeth and admit that the guy who is saying the things they believe the most, is a black man. In the long term, this will help the GOP. Not in 2012 though.

 

[MaGZ]

I doubt Cain’s poll numbers indicates real support: i.e. people who will actually vote for him in the primaries. He’s just a novelty, something different, a Black version of Ross Perot.

 

[leftysergeant]

What is with the head-whip at :22?!

I have noticed that sort of tick in tweakers. Cocaine, maybe? I can see how somebody doing a bit of Peruvivan marching powder might think that Cain makes sense.

 

[leftysergeant]

I doubt Cain’s poll numbers indicates real support: i.e. people who will actually vote for him in the primaries. He’s just a novelty, something different, a Black version of Ross Perot.

The buzz on left-leaning radio chat shows is that the Koch roaches want him to be the nominee.

Dude better get a ground game in place.

Of course, seeing what they did with the teatards, the Koch roaches might alrteady have that handled.

 

[TimCallahan]

Both of those Cain adds are bizarre. In the first one, what's the point of the guy taking a drag off a cigarette?

In the second one, while I understand much of it was a spoof on westerns, the actor comes off as a bit a bit of a schmuck when he snarls at the girl who forgot the straw for his drink, "You wanna keep your job?" and at the make-up girl, "Like you'd know." Again, I understand it's a spoof on Hollywood types, but why would you want to listen to this dope?