H5N1: The Next Pandemic?

Venom said:
How ironic. Liberal individualism making it harder to stop the next pandemic.
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You mean Libertarians? :confused:

Try this one, it's a tad more specific: the alt-right seeing no value in funding things for the community good cut funds for public health everywhere. Without public health infrastructure to detect and contain the spread of HPAI or other PPPs it is estimated that as one of these potentially pandemic pathogens spreads undetected for only a couple weeks it is likely too late to nip such an outbreak in the bud.
 
Scientists testing a dozen people for avian influenza in Cambodia have said the father of an 11-year-old who died from the disease is infected.

Reports of a possible human cluster of H5N1 have caused unease among scientists and health officials around the world.

Over the past two years, the lethal pathogen has devastated bird populations in unprecedented numbers and has more recently jumped into mammals including mink, foxes and sealions.

There are also signs it may be mutating, which could eventually enable H5N1 to spread efficiently in humans.

The UK Health Security Agency confirmed yesterday it is drawing up hypothetical Covid-style modelling to see what might happen if the virus started to people. Scientists have also called for governments to urgently organise influenza vaccines and other countermeasures.

The young girl who died of the virus in Cambodia lived in a village in Prey Veng province, a region 60 miles southeast of the capital Phnom Penh, and close to the border with Vietnam.
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Link
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Family clusters have occurred before probably due to close contact.
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Yeah, I think the likeliest answer so far is that they were infected by a common environmental factor such as the large numbers of birds with the flu.

That said the WHO has apparently raised an eyebrow at this and called for “vigilance not alarmism”:

This site seems to be pretty good, maybe you know of it already, SG:

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...father-in-prey-veng-province-february-22-2023
 
Time for the old joke again:

Snake: "I am an Inland Taipan, fear me! One drop of my venom is enough to kill 100 men!"

Chicken: "Bwaaaaaaark! That's nothing, you should see what happens when I sneeze."
 
angrysoba said:
Yeah, I think the likeliest answer so far is that they were infected by a common environmental factor such as the large numbers of birds with the flu.

That said the WHO has apparently raised an eyebrow at this and called for “vigilance not alarmism”:

This site seems to be pretty good, maybe you know of it already, SG:

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...father-in-prey-veng-province-february-22-2023
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Yes I am familiar with the web site, still worth posting.

Of course the WHO has an interest in the cluster.

NIH: Outbreak of avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in Hong Kong in 1997
The first outbreak of avian influenza A(H5N1) virus in humans occurred in Hong Kong in 1997. Infection was confirmed in 18 individuals, 6 of whom died. Infections were acquired by humans directly from chickens, without the involvement of an intermediate host. The outbreak was halted by a territory-wide slaughter of more than 1.5 million chickens at the end of December 1997.
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CDC: Emergence and Evolution of H5N1 Bird Flu

I couldn't find a good summary of the 1997 Hong Kong outbreak without spending a lot of time on a search. While most people infected had direct contact with poultry some of their family members also got infected. Person to person transmission was documented with 2 caveats. There might have been a genetic risk factor given household blood relatives were more at risk than spouses. And it really didn't spread easily person to person so it didn't go any further.

Molecular studies showed it was adapted to deeper lung tissues and not to the upper airways of humans. People didn't shed enough virus for much human to human spread.

Birds OTOH have the virus throughout their GI tracts. They **** in a pond, another swims/drinks from said pond and the virus is off to the races. A similar thing happens with spreading in the crowded hen houses we raise our chickens in, cages are stacked one on top of another so they all **** on the birds below them. And just being crowded is enough for flu viruses to spread.

That we are seeing mammals infected is a bad sign the virus has taken a dangerous turn infecting that necessary intermediate species. ;)
 
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angrysoba said:
Sorry, I know the title is a bit click-baity, BUT... there are a few concerning developments that bird flu (AKA: H5N1) is getting closer to having pandemic potential.
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The Atheist said:
The number of species of mammals catching H5N1 is getting to the disturbing stage.
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And another step is the mammalian transmission chain as dairy cows are now among those species.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/avian-flu-h5n1-cow-outbreaks-1.7162626

Fortunately. having just been through the covid pandemic, international co-operation and pandemic preparedness is at an all-time high.

One of those words is incorrect.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350...ng-almost-incomprehensible-pandemic-pact-hold
 
The Atheist said:
And another step is the mammalian transmission chain as dairy cows are now among those species.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/avian-flu-h5n1-cow-outbreaks-1.7162626

Fortunately. having just been through the covid pandemic, international co-operation and pandemic preparedness is at an all-time high.

One of those words is incorrect.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350...ng-almost-incomprehensible-pandemic-pact-hold
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I see that undocumented migrants are getting the blame:

Migratory waterfowl are to blame for widening avian-flu outbreaks in Texas cows and poultry, and wild birds carrying the virus should be heading north soon, state Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller said.
The U.S. government since last week has reported cases of the disease in seven dairy herds in Texas and one person who had contact with cows, making it the state most affected by the country's first-ever outbreaks in cattle. Texas is the biggest U.S. cattle producer.
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I suspect every stray disease that happens along is going to be called "The Next Pandemic".
 
dudalb said:
I suspect every stray disease that happens along is going to be called "The Next Pandemic".
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This one has been top candidate for about two decades. It’s nothing to sneeze at….

Due to the high lethality and virulence of HPAI A(H5N1), its endemic presence, its increasingly large host reservoir, and its significant ongoing mutations, in 2006, the H5N1 virus has been regarded to be the world's largest pandemic threat, and billions of dollars are being spent researching H5N1 and preparing for a potential influenza pandemic.
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A couple of Kiwi scientists have weighed in:

Otago University virologist Dr Jemma Geoghegan said while the risk to humans was still low at the present time, “there’s definitely cause for concern that there are so many different mammalian hosts getting infected”.

“There’s been a massive expansion on the host range of even mammalian spillovers, which is like nothing I have seen before.”
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Have no fear, we'll be pulling the drawbridge up a lot faster for H5N1 if it strikes than we did for covid.
 
angrysoba said:
It might not help as much this time, though. Birds couldn't bring Covid.
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We only have a small number of migratory birds and no H5N1 has been detected yet. I imagine if they're sick they wouldn't make it, with a migration that takes about ten days direct flight.
 
Seems like it's only a matter of time now. Clearly mammals are susceptible. The only question is, how deadly will it be?

Yet another good reason to Pasteurize milk.
 
Puppycow said:
Seems like it's only a matter of time now. Clearly mammals are susceptible. The only question is, how deadly will it be?
Yet another good reason to Pasteurize milk.
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Probably depends on how much research has and is being done on vaccines for the known variants and on how it is changing.
 
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