GW: Separating facts from fiction

[CapelDodger]

So to sum up the argument so far, davefoc not being available to do the job properly and I not worthy ...

AGW is not a scare, like GM foods, it is a genuine concern. The greenhouse effect keeps the planet warmer than thermodynamics alone would predict. The greenhouse effect is a result of greenhouse gases. CO2 is a greenhouse gas. Increased CO2 will increase the greenhouse effect and result in a warmer planet once equilibrium is reached.

The questions that need to be addressed, and are being, are about the ructions that will occur while the new equilibrium is being established. The fact that CO2 levels have not reached equilibrium makes it a daunting task. Feedbacks, such as the exhalations of melting permafrost, make it even more so.

But to some people daunting equates with challenge.

 

[a_unique_person]

Adding studies published in the past month (and already cited) to the list of sources supporting anthropogenic GW and/or severity of GW regardless of cause (bolding added).

British Antarctic Survey March 31, 2006 new


University of Arizona March 23, 2006 new


NASA March 14, 2006 agw new


NASA March 3, 2006 new


Woods Hole Feb 2006:


Yale/NOAA Feb 2006:


UCSC Feb 2006 agw


NOAA Feb 2006:


Scripps/DOE Jan 2006 agw


US Global Change Research Information Office 2006 agw



British Antarctic Survey Apr 2005:


Scripps/Livermore Labs Feb 2005 agw


Ohio State Jan 2005:


Schneider/Stanford 2004 agw


NASA Oct 2003:


IPCC 2001 (pdf) agw


DOE/Livermore/Santer March 2001 agw


McCarthy/Harvard March 2001 agw


EPA agw


PEW Center for Climate Change agw

Excellent work there, Varwoche, I hope it is read by some doubters here.

 

[a_unique_person]

Balloon Data Confirms Antarctic Warming Trend

Image: NASA

Launching weather balloons has been a nearly daily habit at some Antarctic research facilities since 1957. Carrying radiosondes--instruments that measure atmospheric conditions such as temperature and wind speed--the balloons travel as high as 12 miles or more. A new analysis of the past 30 years of records from nine research stations, including Amundsen-Scott at the South Pole, reveals that the air above the entirety of Antarctica has warmed by as much as 0.70 degree Celsius per decade during the winter months. John Turner of the British Antarctic Survey and his colleagues report in today's issue of Science that this warming trend is consistent across data from multiple stations run by multiple countries using multiple types of instruments. Previous studies had shown that Antarctica's surface temperatures had warmed by roughly 2.5 degrees C over the last half century, but this study provides the most complete look at atmospheric trends to date.

From the first link, a long term study of temperature trends.

 

[varwoche]

According to a new report from the U.S. Climate Change Science Program...

A nagging difference in temperature readings that had raised questions about global warming has been resolved, a panel of scientists reported Tuesday.
...
The findings show clear evidence of human influences on climate due to changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols and stratospheric ozone.
...
There are still some questions about the rate of atmospheric warming in the tropics, but overall the issue has been settled, said Thomas R. Karl, director of the National Climatic Data Center.
...
Since the 1950s all data show the Earth's surface and the low and middle atmosphere have warmed, while the upper stratosphere has cooled. Those changes were expected from computer models of the effects of greenhouse warming

article

 

[varwoche]

According to a new report from NOAA...

Global warming caused by human activity has begun to dampen an important wind circulation pattern over the Pacific Ocean, and that could alter climate and the marine food chain in that area
...
The slowdown was detected in shipboard and land-based data going back to the mid-1800s. It matches an effect predicted by computer climate simulations that trace global warming to a build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, the researchers report. But simulations that consider only natural influences fail to produce the observed slowdown

article

 

[varwoche]

According to a new study conducted by China's National Meteorological Bureau...

Glaciers covering China's Qinghai-Tibet plateau are shrinking by 7 percent a year
...
the deterioration of the plateau may trigger more droughts and increase sandstorms that lash western and northern China. He reached his conclusions after analyzing four decades of data from China's 681 weather stations.

Han Yongxiang of China's National Meteorological Bureau said average temperatures in Tibet had risen 0.9 centigrade since the 1980s, accelerating the melting of glaciers and frozen tundra across the plateau.

article

 

[a_unique_person]

Thank you for more evidence, Varwoche.

 

[OMGturt1es]

This statement by itself is not logically valid. It beggs the question. A conclusion is based on a premise based on the conclusion.

Proposition #1: Carbon Dioxide is a greenhouse gas.
Proposition #2: If Carbon Dioxide wasn't a greenhouse gas the earth would be cooler.
Proposition #3: More CO2 = warmer, less = cooler

Proposition #1 proves #2 and #3
Proposition #2 proves #3 and #1
Proposition #3 proves #1 and #2

Can you say circular? All I'm asking is for AUP to correct and justify his claim. Sheesh, heaven forbid I should ask for logic in a skeptics forum.

Propositon 1 is true. CO2 is a greenhouse gas. That's a result of its infra-red spectrum. Proposition 2 is actually a consequence of the greenhouse effect, one which, as I pointed out previously, led to the its discovery. Proposition 3 is a direct result of Propositon 1 via the definition of "greenhouse gas". There is no circularity.

randfan is spot on-- the argument is most certainly circular!-- it may not have any consequences on the conclusion, BUT it is completely justified to ask of proper logic in a skeptic forum.

 

[varwoche]

Updated list of sources supporting AGW and/or severity of GW regardless of cause. new indicates the study is newly added to the list. agw indicates the study references anthropogenic warming.

NOAA May 3, 2006 new agw

Global warming caused by human activity has begun to dampen an important wind circulation pattern over the Pacific Ocean

U.S. Climate Change Science Program May 2, 2006 new agw

A nagging difference in temperature readings that had raised questions about global warming has been resolved, a panel of scientists reported Tuesday.
...
The findings show clear evidence of human influences on climate due to changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols and stratospheric ozone.

China National Meteorological Bureau May 2, 2006 new

Glaciers covering China's Qinghai-Tibet plateau are shrinking by 7 percent a year due to global warming

National Center for Atmospheric Research April 25, 2006 new agw

The hurricanes we are seeing are indeed a direct result of climate change ... increasingly due to greenhouse gases. There seems to be no other conclusion you can logically draw

University of Minnesota April 12, 2006 new agw

Plants won't suck up as much of the carbon dioxide contributing to global warming as scientists had hoped … until recently, worldwide computer modeling counted on plants to absorb a good share of the extra carbon dioxide being produced largely by the burning of coal, oil and natural gas

British Antarctic Survey March 31, 2006

A new analysis of the past 30 years of records from nine research stations, including Amundsen-Scott at the South Pole, reveals that the air above the entirety of Antarctica has warmed by as much as 0.70 degree Celsius per decade during the winter months.

University of Arizona March 23, 2006

Water from melting ice sheets and glaciers is gushing into the world's oceans much faster than previously thought possible ... The unexpected deluge is raising global sea levels, which scientists say could eventually submerge island nations, flood cities, and expose millions of coastal residents to destructive storm surges.

NASA March 14, 2006 agw

NASA scientists have found that a major form of global air pollution involved in summertime "smog" has also played a significant role in warming the Arctic

NASA/GRACE March 3, 2006

The Antarctic ice sheet shrank significantly during the past three years ... Using data from the NASA/German Aerospace Center Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), scientists concluded that Antarctica's ice sheet decreased by about 152 cubic kilometers annually from April 2002 to August 2005.

Woods Hole Feb 2006

Study Suggests Climate Models Underestimate Future Warming

Yale/NOAA Feb 2006

Unfortunately, the warming is in an accelerating trend

UCSC Feb 2006 agw

Human activities are releasing greenhouse gases more than 30 times faster than the rate of emissions that triggered a period of extreme global warming in the Earth's past, according to an expert on ancient climates.

NOAA Feb 2006

Arctic sea ice has decreased between 1973 and 1996 at a rate of -2.8 +/- 0.3%/decade ... the projected change of 3 to 7°F (1.5 - 4°C) over the next century would be unprecedented

Scripps/DOE Jan 2006 agw

Enhanced aerosol concentrations increase the amount of thermal energy emitted by many Arctic clouds... The Arctic is showing the first unmistakable signs of climate warming caused by human activities, in the form of rapidly retreating and thinning sea ice ... It is also another example of human industrial activity's surprising impact on remote polar regions

US Global Climate Change Office 2006 agw (opinion)

It is becoming clear that human activities, mainly burning fossil fuels and deforestation, are part of the cause of this warming.

BAS/USGS Apr 2005

British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published this week in the journal Science, show that over the last 50 years 87% of 244 glaciers studied have retreated, and that average retreat rates have accelerated.

Scripps/Livermore Feb 2005 agw

results clearly indicate that the warming is produced anthropogenically. "This is perhaps the most compelling evidence yet that global warming is happening right now and it shows that we can successfully simulate its past and likely future evolution," said Tim Barnett, a research marine physicist "The statistical significance of these results is far too strong to be merely dismissed and should wipe out much of the uncertainty about the reality of global warming."

Ohio State Jan 2005

the ice fields capping the mountain would disappear between 2015 and 2020, the victims, at least in part, of global warming. “The change there is so dramatic,” he said. “We can see it both in the field and from aerial photographs of the mountaintop. I would say it is on track to disappear, and the rate of ice loss may even be accelerating.

Schneider/Stanford 2004 agw (opinion)

the vast majority of knowledgeable climate scientists have said that despite the remaining uncertainties, that it's very likely (more than 90%), that humans are least part of the story

NASA Oct 2003

twenty-year record of space based measurements has been analyzed by researchers at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. Based on their findings, evidence of a warming planet continues to grow

IPCC 2001 agw

Emmissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to alter the climate

DOE/Livermore/Santer March 2001 agw

quantify and explain the link between fossil fuel emissions and climate change, including the role of greenhouse gases and aerosol particles. Using a statistical pattern detection method, Santer and colleagues reviewed records of the past century and identified the anthropogenic "fingerprint" of climate change ... hard evidence that human activities have global-scale consequences

McCarthy/Harvard March 2001 agw

coordinated a remarkable report by the world scientific community this year that said global warming is real, it's here, and it's going to be worse than we thought ... evidence is overwhelming that humans are causing most of the change

EPA agw (opinion)

There is no doubt this atmospheric buildup of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is largely the result of human activities ... In short, scientists think rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are contributing to global warming

PEW Center for Climate Change agw (opinion)

greenhouse gases appear to be the dominant driver of climate change over the past few decades

 

[varwoche]

“Against Hansen's claims others report that "Greenland's ice cap has thickened slightly in recent years despite wild predictions of a thaw triggered by global warming...." – the Norwegian led team of climate scientists at the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, October 2005.

Bjerknes also published these findings in Jan 2006 based on Antarctica ice-core research:

atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are increasing 200 times faster than they have ever increased before in 650,000 years of climate data records.

 

[varwoche]

Getting back to M&M, I came across an interesting article about McIntyre's rise from obscurity:

The untold story of how a front-page article and powerful U.S. politicians morphed former mining executive Stephen McIntyre into a scientific superstar.

 

[a_unique_person]

Interesting reading. Puts the whole M&M circus act under the spotlight.

 

[CapelDodger]

Interesting reading. Puts the whole M&M circus act under the spotlight.

And the heatlamp .

 

[Geckko]

Updated list of sources supporting AGW and/or severity of GW regardless of cause. new indicates the study is newly added to the list. agw indicates the study references anthropogenic warming.

NOAA May 3, 2006 new agw U.S. Climate Change Science Program May 2, 2006 new agw China National Meteorological Bureau May 2, 2006 new National Center for Atmospheric Research April 25, 2006 new agw University of Minnesota April 12, 2006 new agw British Antarctic Survey March 31, 2006University of Arizona March 23, 2006NASA March 14, 2006 agw NASA/GRACE March 3, 2006Woods Hole Feb 2006Yale/NOAA Feb 2006UCSC Feb 2006 agw NOAA Feb 2006Scripps/DOE Jan 2006 agw US Global Climate Change Office 2006 agw (opinion)BAS/USGS Apr 2005Scripps/Livermore Feb 2005 agw Ohio State Jan 2005Schneider/Stanford 2004 agw (opinion)NASA Oct 2003IPCC 2001 agw DOE/Livermore/Santer March 2001 agw McCarthy/Harvard March 2001 agw EPA agw (opinion)PEW Center for Climate Change agw (opinion)

I have been trying to catch up by reading this extensive list

I have got to:

NASA/GRACE March 3, 2006

And have a comment. Firstly, the link is to a Reuters story not the journal article. The journal article can be found here:

http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~kostya/Pdf/seaice.trnds.pdf

But beyond that, I think you need to remove it from your list. The authors give the following conclusion:

...the lack of a statistically significant trend observed in SH sea ice extent...

I think the news reports in this instance were erroneous or misleading.

 

[a_unique_person]

Nevertheless, the climate model simulations provide statistical
support to the conclusion that the satellite observed
retreat in NH sea ice extents is a real climate change and
that the retreat is a response to changes in the observed
external forcing of the global climate system. An absence in
the NH of a significant seasonal dependence of monthly
trends, the acceleration of sea ice retreat, and the lack of a
statistically significant trend observed in SH sea ice extent
all deserve further investigation.

There is a need for more study to understand the diffferences in response to NH and SH, but the NH appears to be in line with modelled predictions and due to climate change due to climate forcings, that is, AGW.

 

[Geckko]

There is a need for more study to understand the diffferences in response to NH and SH, but the NH appears to be in line with modelled predictions and due to climate change due to climate forcings, that is, AGW.

I think varwoche included a reference to this particular study because it had new evidence about antarctic ice coverage - see his highlighting.

The contraction in Arctic ice coverage is clear I think and covered in other links he/she provided.

 

[a_unique_person]

He.

 

[varwoche]

And have a comment. Firstly, the link is to a Reuters story not the journal article. The journal article can be found here:

http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~kostya/Pdf/seaice.trnds.pdf

But beyond that, I think you need to remove it from your list. The authors give the following conclusion:

I think the news reports in this instance were erroneous or misleading.

In fact, the Reuters link is broken. Thanks for catching this!

I don't think the study you linked to is the same study though. Here's the best link I can find for now: NASA press release

Add: Here it is at Science Magazine, for a fee. From the abstract:

Using measurements of time-variable gravity from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites, we determined mass variations of the Antarctic ice sheet during 2002–2005. We found that the mass of the ice sheet decreased significantly, at a rate of 152 ± 80 cubic kilometers of ice per year, which is equivalent to 0.4 ± 0.2 millimeters of global sea-level rise per year. Most of this mass loss came from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

 

[Geckko]

In fact, the Reuters link is broken. Thanks for catching this!

I don't think the study you linked to is the same study though. Here's the best link I can find for now: NASA press release

I wasn't entirely sure myself. I saw it was the same date (3 March) and two authors from NASA.

Looking at you link makes it look like a different paper (different names). Need more digging.

 

[Cain]

Not sure if it's been mentioned in this thread or elsewhere. A cursory search brings up nothing.

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?chanID=sa006&colID=13&articleID=000B557A-71ED-146C-ADB783414B7F0000

Nevertheless, data trump politics, and a convergence of evidence from numerous sources has led me to make a cognitive switch on the subject of anthropogenic global warming...

Al Gore delivered the single finest summation of the evidence for global warming I have ever heard...

Because of the complexity of the problem, environmental skepticism was once tenable. No longer. It is time to flip from skepticism to activism.