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Greek elections

Wildy said:
Looks like it's going to be close between New Democracy and Syriza.
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The exit polls are in and they are too close to call - Syriza and New Democracy within 1% of each other. That means we're going to have to wait a few more hours before we know who is going to get the 50 bonus seats for winning, which will determine who is going to be the prime minister and the biggest party in the coalition. But I think it is now certain that the new Greek government will be a coalition containing Syriza, New Democracy and probably PASOK too. That's because I think all of those parties believe that the bailout/austerity deal can be successfully renegotiated after what has happened in Spain, and that the more fully representative of the Greek people the Greek government is, the more weight they'll have behind them in what will be the toughest round of negotiations any of them have ever had anything to do with.

The thing is though...the outcome of those negotiations are so crucial to so many people not directly involved in them that it is also inevitable that much of it will take place in public. We're going to have more "microphone diplomacy", with everyone and their dog chipping in, and all the time the markets will be responding. Expect extreme brinkmanship.
 
Tsipras acknowledged their defeat some 15 minutes ago. He congratulated Néa Dimokratia for the win.

[Though conservative rural communities' are the first votes to arrive and the advantage is just 3% with some 45% of votes counted]
 
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I think we get a brief market rally then a fade. wouldn't surprise me to see the market spit its dummy out imminently now because there wont be global CB immediately.
 
Francesca R said:
New Democracy + Pasok coalition seems safe: 165 seats latest. EMU-zone will now give Greece some concessions.
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Except Pasok already declared, that they would not join the coalition without Syriza. And Syriza has said no way it would participate.

I was wrong with my guess that Syriza would win. But it seems tough enough to form a working government regardless.

Even if they would manage to form a government, I don't see the markets cheering too much. As has been said, nothing would change. Greece will not be able to pay its debt, they will eventually need a new bailout package sooner than later, and they will continue in the eurozone. I see that Eurobonds are not realistic as long as Greece (and even Portugal) are included. They would just drive the yields too high for everyone.

So the "best case" scenario would be a ND+Pasok government, nothing changes and eurobonds as an option are out of the table.

The other scenario of course is, that they will not be able to form a new government this time either. What happens then? Nobody knows, except it has been said that third election is not an option.

So it's hard to see this as a positive for the markets. Not saying that a Syriza win would have been one either. This way or that, it's uncertainty and trouble ahead anyway.
 
Even if ND and PASOK can form a government, I'm not sure that there is a strong mandate or will to enforce austerity. I think that Greece will have massive civil resistance if the bailout terms are enforced. The voters seem to be hedging two concerns; they want to stay in the Euro, but they don't want the extent of austerity of the bailout terms. Strangely, that seems to be the platform of all the major parties in Greece, except with Syriza, the voters know that party will not blink.

I would guess that a majority of Greeks want to stay in the Euro 'at all costs' (i.e. accepting the terms of the bailout if it can't be renegotiated), yet there is a significant minority of Greeks that will not accept the conditions of the bailout under any circumstances.
 
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