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Global warming

You misinterpreted aup, I think. Too much CO2 is harmful by another mechanism than poison. Nobody before Monckton suggested anything different. So why did he? We know why : misdirection to a strawman.

Not being a Royals fan, I knew nothing about Monckton until one of the newspaper's readers sent me an e-mail about that EcoWorld article that quoted his list. Between work and the holiday, I didn't have time to read the entire lengthy thing.

But, you may recall, I've got personal reasons for my position. I had published what was basically a paraphrase of Wikipedia's entry on CO2 in the newspaper because several of my readers had asked me if it was poisonous. I explained it was not, although it could be dangerous under the correct conditions. It was its growing accumulation in the atmosphere that was the instant concern.

And that angered the folks at RealClimate, which brought in the cavalry from ClimateAudit. (I'm sorry, I can't see how either RC or CA can be taken too seriously. They're too factional to be capable of any kind of objectivity, much less scientific objectivity).

Nonetheless, I don't think it's irrelevant to keep the discussion about AGW as accurate as possible, not just scientifically, but linguistically, as well.

But by all means, accomplish a worthy goal at the mere cost of the language. :(;):cool:
 
Not being a Royals fan, I knew nothing about Monckton until one of the newspaper's readers sent me an e-mail about that EcoWorld article that quoted his list. Between work and the holiday, I didn't have time to read the entire lengthy thing.

But, you may recall, I've got personal reasons for my position. I had published what was basically a paraphrase of Wikipedia's entry on CO2 in the newspaper because several of my readers had asked me if it was poisonous. I explained it was not, although it could be dangerous under the correct conditions. It was its growing accumulation in the atmosphere that was the instant concern.

I do recall, and I recall how the Monckton-friendly blogosphere dragged you into limelight you weren't seeking. Monckton, on the other hand, does seek the limelight. It's the likes of Monckton that bring up the idea of CO2 as a poison in order to knock it down; it's some of your readers who do not read beyond that point.

Nobody else is out there claiming that CO2 is poisonous, there are only claims that such people exist as a prelude to rubbishing the idea. Which is, of course, rubbish, and makes it a perfect strawman. Some people actually get frightened by strawmen, but that's people for you. None too bright, on average.

And that angered the folks at RealClimate, which brought in the cavalry from ClimateAudit. (I'm sorry, I can't see how either RC or CA can be taken too seriously. They're too factional to be capable of any kind of objectivity, much less scientific objectivity).

RealClimate - by which I mean the bloggers behind it - wasn't angered by that. As I recall there was a misunderstanding on that point, but by then another of your articles was already being trumpeted by ClimateAudit and the rest of the anti-AGW blogosphere. There was no reponse from RC before they were asked for one because it became so big in what is a desperate enclave. Desperate enough to promote a fart like Monckton. It's a dream come true for him.

Nonetheless, I don't think it's irrelevant to keep the discussion about AGW as accurate as possible, not just scientifically, but linguistically, as well.

But by all means, accomplish a worthy goal at the mere cost of the language. :(;):cool:

You can rest assured that I will not do that. I have a particular affection for the English language. And another one for science. None for Monckton.

By the way, real British aristocracy despises the Royal Family - aka "the Germans". The Hanoverians were a step too far. Monckton's affinity - even as a wannabe real aristocrat - is with the Thatcherite Tories, who are a weird and wonderful clique. Weirder than the Bush White House, if you can picture that, and Monckton was on the fringe of that. Thatcher's lot were actually up for AGW because it was an argument for nuclear power (and the nuclear weapons capability that comes with it).

It's all rather complicated, you have to have mixed with these people to get any sort of grip on them.
 
That whould be "Doctor" John McLean, would it. Reminds me of that Mel Brooks sketch.

Whom you had accused of lying about having a Phd.

Either he is lying or you are. Who is it?

Put up or shut up.

http://mclean.ch/climate/EE%2017-1_03%20McLean%20ok.pdf

Do you intend, after clear is up who is lying (McLean or yourself) to present some peer reviewed, published rebuttal to the scientific work of McLean?

Or more vacuous, circuitous ad hominems?
 
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Agreed. Where it gets muddy is whether (1) the modelers do a decent job of forecasting climate based on the applicable subset of principles fronted by Armstrong (2) whether Chapter 8 does a decent job of summarizing the predictive merits of these models and their faults (again based on the applicable subset of principles).
before applying Armstrongs principles, one has to establish that each principles applied is relevant to forecasting climate. stating that Armstrong says that they are
Armstrong says -
econometric methods are not confined to economic problems, but can be applied to forecasting in situations where you have theories about what causes changes in the thing that you are forecasting.).

doesn't count!

thanks for the intro to the audit software. i'll stick with the lists he gives in the paper for now.

How do we understand the merits (or lack of) of Armstrong's method?

we cannot do that by merely running his audit, he did that already.

don't you find it odd that few (i know of none) physical scientists subscribe to Armstrongs approach?
Principles can be marked as "Not applicable".

good! but he did not use this option often in his criticism of IPCC. and so i, not unsurprisingly, i would like to classify the "Principles" he claims are applicable into my categories:

irrelevant (unlikely to apply when forecasting any physical system)
unhelpful (unlikely to be of use in the particular system under consideration)
unprincipled (eg attacks properties of the question, not the problem soln)
naive (wonderful in principle, but displaying an ivory tower separation from the facts on the ground)
agreed (already widely implemented)
on target (under-appreciated or overlooked, and carrying nontrivial implications for climate science)

and feel most of his listed complaints fall in one or more of the first five. which of his principles do you feel fall into the on target box? surely not all of them?

i believe that this is an important paper, as i expect many more papers from honest, well-meaning "forecasters" with little experience of forecasting physical systems will appear shortly. these papers could needlessly damage the credibility of climate science, but they could also bring valuable insights. anyone else interested in using this paper to practice sorting out which Principles are relevant?
 
Whom you had accused of lying about having a Phd.

Either he is lying or you are. Who is it?

Put up or shut up.

http://mclean.ch/climate/EE 17-1_03 McLean ok.pdf

Do you intend, after clear is up who is lying (McLean or yourself) to present some peer reviewed, published rebuttal to the scientific work of McLean?

Or more vacuous, circuitous ad hominems?

He certainly doesn't refer to himself as Doctor there? Must have been recently awarded his doctorate by Morano, maybe.
 
Originally Posted by mhaze
Whom you had accused of lying about having a Phd.
Either he is lying or you are. Who is it? Put up or shut up.
http://mclean.ch/climate/EE 17-1_03 McLean ok.pdf

Do you intend, after clear is up who is lying (McLean or yourself) to present some peer reviewed, published rebuttal to the scientific work of McLean? Or more vacuous, circuitous ad hominems?
He certainly doesn't refer to himself as Doctor there? Must have been recently awarded his doctorate by Morano, maybe.

More vacuous, circuitous ad hominems?

Hint: You can disrespect public figures such as Gore, but not a good idea to do it with private individuals. You know, libel? Especially with an Aussie from Melbourne.
 
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Have a cool yule, everyone.
Capel Dodger! An acquaintance living in Jalisco, Mexico, is sending me a bottle of anejo (don't know how to type an "n" with a tilda on this critter). I'd send it to you, except for that carbon footprint thing;).
Well, I'm minutes away from a single malt (it's still morning, but 'tis the Eve of Merriment), so merry, merry and a jolly joy, too!
 
More vacuous, circuitous ad hominems?

Hint: You can disrespect public figures such as Gore, but not a good idea to do it with private individuals. You know, libel? Especially with an Aussie from Melbourne.

I am saying that there is that the John McLean referred to by Morano is not a doctor of anything, he is a self described amateur in the climate field who is an IT data analyst. Morano appears to have given him the title of Dr.

http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/author.asp?id=3754

Perhaps he has him confused with this guy.

http://www.psy.uq.edu.au/directory/?id=24

It's just one more hatchet job by Morano that misses the mark by a mile.
 
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Have a cool yule, everyone.
Capel Dodger! An acquaintance living in Jalisco, Mexico, is sending me a bottle of anejo (don't know how to type an "n" with a tilda on this critter). I'd send it to you, except for that carbon footprint thing;).
Well, I'm minutes away from a single malt (it's still morning, but 'tis the Eve of Merriment), so merry, merry and a jolly joy, too!

Heartfelt apologies for not responding sooner, but only varwoche's thread-necromancy brought your post to my attention. From the date-and-time stamp I was already on the good side of jolly by then, and so it went for some days. An Irish malt this time, and a bottle of tequila I was gifted with. Everything worked out splendidily, and I hope the same for you and yours.
 
I've started a thread in the appropriate section in case you'd like to explain this curious statement.

CTs Concerning Global Warming Science

I'm drawn, but you have to appreciate that I'm white-knuckle sober from the Politics Forum, and I've accepted that I always will be. CT threatens to drag me off the wagon I'm desperately clinging onto.

Thank ◊◊◊◊ I can cope with alcohol and other drugs, otherwise life wouldn't be worth living.
 
I thought the mods had said no more GW except in the moderated thread? Has that changed?
 

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