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Global warming

That is perceptive as to what the basic issue is. Now we differ on the facts and interpretations of them. I see the exact opposite, that Hansen's prediction was how the temperature would react if no government regulation was added.

Really? And what was the proposed regulation on plate tectonics? You realize nobody's taking you serious anymore, don't you?

Michaels discussed this at a hearing on the Kyoto protocol. In that context, it is of course necessary to forecast future CO2 emissions and promulgate government regulations to lower or mitigate those expected CO2 emissions. You do not have three planets on which you can do Scenario A, B, and C.

But that is not what the model does. And the model wasn't criticized on it's pessimistic view on CO2 emission rates, but on it's temperature forecast. Both of which are quite on the nose in Scenario B, that was ommited.

In his oral presentation of 6-23-1988 to the Senate, Hansen was proposing government regulations and beneficial effects thereof, and highly negative consequences of "Business as usual" with no government intervention.

Yes, he was, so what? The world is not the US, and the future is not a given. CO2 emission rates declined despite the lack of will of the US, and volcanic eruptions actually happened. Nothing of this has any influence on the fact that Michaels lied.

A postscript by Michaels (2006)-
"That’s precisely the keynote of my testimony eight years ago: in climate science, what you think is obviously true can literally change overnight, like the assumption of continued exponential growth of carbon dioxide, or how the earth responds."

So a liar lies again to justify is lie. His testimony didn't address the CO2 emission rates in the model in any significant way. The reason is obvious, since he would have to explain that one of the scenarios they close to the real emission rates, and the performance of the model was quite good.
 
His testimony didn't address the CO2 emission rates in the model in any significant way. The reason is obvious, since he would have to explain that one of the scenarios they close to the real emission rates, and the performance of the model was quite good.

Actually, yes his testimony did address CO2 emission rates quite nicely. Want details?

Suppose in 1988, the Senate had bought off on Hansen's alarmist view and went for "Draconian emissions cuts". Worried about "C" business as usual, they opted to create, through legislation, penalties, fines and taxes, "Scenario A".

Oops.....

the results of our doing nothing turned out to be just as good as what was predicted by Hansen's proposal for "Draconian Emissions Cuts".

That's some model you are choosing to defend...
 
Nope. "Draconian emission cuts" would be scenario A. We got scenario B from the Kyoto and Montreal protocols and a volcano. We might even be better off than scenario A if we had done that.

Do you have no shame?
 
Nope. "Draconian emission cuts" would be scenario A. We got scenario B from the Kyoto and Montreal protocols and a volcano. We might even be better off than scenario A if we had done that.

You must have something backwards there...
 
Actually, yes his testimony did address CO2 emission rates quite nicely. Want details?

Why not?


Suppose in 1988, the Senate had bought off on Hansen's alarmist view and went for "Draconian emissions cuts".

Where does the term "draconian emission cuts" derive from? You put it in quotes, so it must come from somewhere, but I've rather lost track.


Worried about "C" business as usual, they opted to create, through legislation, penalties, fines and taxes, "Scenario A".

They did what now, and who are they? Why didn't we hear about it at the time?

Oops.....

the results of our doing nothing turned out to be just as good as what was predicted by Hansen's proposal for "Draconian Emissions Cuts".

That's some model you are choosing to defend...

Again with the "draconian emission cuts". Odd

What actually happened was that the best-guess scenario - Scenario B, the middle one - turned out close to reality (even to the volcano) and did a very good job of predicting climate change up to 1998. Since then it's done the same up to 2007.

And you seem to have mixed up Scenarios A and C.
 
Psst, don't look now, but you're lying again. You have been explained this before, the projections on CO2 emmissions used in the model that most approached what really happened were the ones of scenario B. The same scenario had the temperature predictions that most approached what happened in that decade. Removing that scenario is lying.

But even that is superfluous. The model consisted of 3 scenarios. Presenting one of the extremes is lying. If he wanted to present only one scenario, he would have to have gone with B, and explain that he was not presenting the two extremes for whatever reason... you know, honesty.

The two scenarios that had not matched the outcome were superfluous (in such a short term). What-ifs that iffed not.

And all this is definitely in the contrarian comfort-zone - at least ten years old, and much of it twenty. The intervening years have not gone well for their cause, but there are still old fights to be fought. Oh, and temperatures have been "stagnating" meanwhile. Cooling is just over the hill. the models have been proved wrong (see Michaels) and all the people that predicted what's happened and is happening were and are alarmists.

In the meantime reality has been diverging from Scenario B in a Scenario A direction. There's been an acceleration in CO2 accumulation over the last decade, a goodly chunk of which is down to growth in China. The CO2-efficiency of GDP improved in the late 20thCE, but it's been declining with recent Asian growth.

This won't have much immediate impact on the rate of climate change, but in the medium-term it will if it continues. China still has mountains of coal - it's late into the game of burning through them.
 
Where does the term "draconian emission cuts" derive from?

And you seem to have mixed up Scenarios A and C.

No mixup here.
"draconian emission cuts" was Hansen's description for C.
"Business as usual" was Hansen's description for A.
 
You must have something backwards there...
Well, that was probably because I accepted what you said about which scenario was which:
Worried about "C" business as usual, they opted to create, through legislation, penalties, fines and taxes, "Scenario A".
Sorry, I should have known you were wrong. My bad. :rolleyes:

Gee, I guess CD was right; you ARE confused about which is which.

But that doesn't change the fact that you claimed:
the results of our doing nothing turned out to be just as good as what was predicted by Hansen's proposal for "Draconian Emissions Cuts".
Which is not what we see; we see scenario B, the middle scenario; you're claiming we see the results of draconian emissions cuts today, the low scenario, when we clearly do not.
 
What a terrifically intellectual discussion this has devolved into. So-n-so lied. So-n-so didn't! How brilliant, how insightful ! Did it ever occur to either of you that the truth or falsity of statement by some non-researcher, non-primary source is of no relevece to the underlying issue of climate change ?

I'm regularly disgusted by illogical arguments, and one of the first signals that things are going off the tracks is when people referring the the "Insert name" theory of such-n-such instead of briefly explaining the fundamental point. It's a great debater's technique for inserting a massive and therefore difficult to rebut body of work into a discussion without going to the effort of laying a foundation. It's really only valid when the audience all understand and agree on the definition of the idea.

NASA recently released the source code for Hansen's model. I performed a brief review and I have toi say the quality of the code is very poor. It contains the sort of organizational problems that I used to see in undergraduate homework programs in the 1970s (before better tools and languages avoided many of the problems) That is not to say the model is wrong, but personally I'd be hesitant to make any major claims based on such a low quality tool. The possibility of error in the code is significant and I wonder what sort of test cases were used to give confidence to the results ? I don't see any test verification suite for the units.

-S
 
NASA recently released the source code for Hansen's model. I performed a brief review and I have toi say the quality of the code is very poor. It contains the sort of organizational problems that I used to see in undergraduate homework programs in the 1970s (before better tools and languages avoided many of the problems) That is not to say the model is wrong, but personally I'd be hesitant to make any major claims based on such a low quality tool. The possibility of error in the code is significant and I wonder what sort of test cases were used to give confidence to the results ? I don't see any test verification suite for the units.

-S

I think someone tried running that code with CO2=0%, and the thing bombed out. That's not a good sign for a model....

Aside from the model, Hansen had a supposed "scientific basis" for discovering global warming. I am curious what your opinion is of it.

Using the 1951-1980 as the climatic mean, he establishes a standard deviation of 0.14C for annual global temperature variations. He then states that > 3SD is unusual and therefore man made. Then there is a leap to CO2 as the primary cause.

At one point he says he's already found AGW (=>3SD) in the last several years, at another he says if we see "several consecutive years with 3SD deviation that would be the "smoking gun".

Whichever way you take it, he is asserting that the surface temperature data should be used, and > 3SD is the 99% percentile of variation and therefore must be manmade....
 
What a terrifically intellectual discussion this has devolved into. So-n-so lied. So-n-so didn't! How brilliant, how insightful ! Did it ever occur to either of you that the truth or falsity of statement by some non-researcher, non-primary source is of no relevece to the underlying issue of climate change ?

It certainly has no influence on climate change. That just barrels on regardless.

I'm regularly disgusted by illogical arguments, and one of the first signals that things are going off the tracks is when people referring the the "Insert name" theory of such-n-such instead of briefly explaining the fundamental point. It's a great debater's technique for inserting a massive and therefore difficult to rebut body of work into a discussion without going to the effort of laying a foundation. It's really only valid when the audience all understand and agree on the definition of the idea.

NASA recently released the source code for Hansen's model. I performed a brief review and I have toi say the quality of the code is very poor. It contains the sort of organizational problems that I used to see in undergraduate homework programs in the 1970s (before better tools and languages avoided many of the problems) That is not to say the model is wrong, but personally I'd be hesitant to make any major claims based on such a low quality tool. The possibility of error in the code is significant and I wonder what sort of test cases were used to give confidence to the results ? I don't see any test verification suite for the units.

-S

Well there's a thing.

The model has worked very well, though, hasn't it? Twenty years on of more or less Scenario B, and the Scenario B prediction is right there. And it's only just getting into its stride as a 1980's model with a decadal resolution.

I think you've missed the point of the Hansen code thing. It wasn't about actually looking at it, it was about the fact that it wasn't available. Once it was, it was no longer an issue. I'm afraid you've been wasting your time (and possibly threatening your sanity; amateur FORTRAN from the 70's? Not something I'd want to revisit).
 
I think someone tried running that code with CO2=0%, and the thing bombed out. That's not a good sign for a model....

The model depends on a database that doesn't include such silliness. It's meant to model the real world. Which it does, more than tolerably well.

Aside from the model, Hansen had a supposed "scientific basis" for discovering global warming. I am curious what your opinion is of it.

Given that Hansen revealed this twenty years ago, and the intervening decades have served only to confirm his conclusion, I have a high opinion of it.

Using the 1951-1980 as the climatic mean, he establishes a standard deviation of 0.14C for annual global temperature variations.

What does it matter what period is chosen to establish a base-line? Variation about it remains the same. All that changes is the number, not the proportion. Which is to say, the shape of the graph remains the same.

He then states that > 3SD is unusual and therefore man made. Then there is a leap to CO2 as the primary cause.

Is this from the published Hansen et al 1988 paper, or from your reporting of Hansen's 1988 statement to Congress? It's easy to lose track. Your idea of a leap might well be stuff you can't understand or don't want to see.

Whatever, we're talking about 1988, and Hansen's star is way up in the ascendent twenty years on. Something about not being wrong so far, and if anything ahead of the game.



At one point he says he's already found AGW (=>3SD) in the last several years, at another he says if we see "several consecutive years with 3SD deviation that would be the "smoking gun".

Whichever way you take it, he is asserting that the surface temperature data should be used, and > 3SD is the 99% percentile of variation and therefore must be manmade....

Of course it's man-made. What's behind the positive energy balance if not the greenhouse effect? "Just warming since the Little Ice Age" doesn't cut it; global warming means energy accumulation on a massive scale. It doesn't just happen.
 
What a terrifically intellectual discussion this has devolved into. So-n-so lied. So-n-so didn't! How brilliant, how insightful ! Did it ever occur to either of you that the truth or falsity of statement by some non-researcher, non-primary source is of no relevece to the underlying issue of climate change ?
Every time I post, as a matter of fact. But mhaze has moved the debate away from the science by claiming that the scientists are lying. I have to agree with you that this seems like use of rhetorical devices to avoid discussing the facts, but I have little control over what s/he posts. I'll bring it to your attention that I and others have been pointing this out for quite some time. I suppose if you're gonna wrestle with a pig, you gotta figure you're gonna get some mud on ya.

I'm regularly disgusted by illogical arguments, and one of the first signals that things are going off the tracks is when people referring the the "Insert name" theory of such-n-such instead of briefly explaining the fundamental point.
So from this, I get two statements by you:
1. Any scientific theory that requires an IQ greater than 90 to understand, or requires an explanation that takes more than two sentences, is BS.
2. You don't want to talk about scientific theories by name; it's illogical.
Have I got that right?

It's a great debater's technique for inserting a massive and therefore difficult to rebut body of work into a discussion without going to the effort of laying a foundation. It's really only valid when the audience all understand and agree on the definition of the idea.
So basically you don't want to talk about science, when you talk about climate. OK, that's fine, but I have to ask you, why are you posting on a forum titled, "Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology?" Politics is over there ->.

NASA recently released the source code for Hansen's model. I performed a brief review and I have toi say the quality of the code is very poor.
It's crufty. That's why it has all those tracers and diagnostics sprinkled all over it. What's the matter, never seen scientific code before? They aren't, after all, professional software engineers. I didn't have any trouble following it. Are you saying you did? That would be consistent with your attitude on scientific theories.

It contains the sort of organizational problems that I used to see in undergraduate homework programs in the 1970s (before better tools and languages avoided many of the problems)
Well, gee, considering it was originally written in FORTRAN, in the '70s, THAT'S a big surprise, huh?

That is not to say the model is wrong, but personally I'd be hesitant to make any major claims based on such a low quality tool. The possibility of error in the code is significant and I wonder what sort of test cases were used to give confidence to the results ? I don't see any test verification suite for the units.
They test them with the diagnostics and tracers in the code that you apparently overlooked. In fact, according to the documentation, it's only recently that it was modularized. I bet that was fun. Almost as good as hitting yourself repeatedly in the chest with a pickaxe. No wonder it's got cruft all over it.

And with all that trouble you have with scientific theories and stuff, I bet you have a great deal of trouble figuring out what numerical simulations do, because it's mostly math- kind of like scientific theories are.
 
Is this from the published Hansen et al 1988 paper, or from your reporting of Hansen's 1988 statement to Congress? It's easy to lose track. Your idea of a leap might well be stuff you can't understand or don't want to see.
In the paper, of course. The talk to Congress was as we've noted, simple generalities. "Business as usual" will get you this huge T spike, "Draconian emissions cuts" will get you this nice moderate world. The paper does go into the model although rather briefly.

Whatever, we're talking about 1988, and Hansen's star is way up in the ascendent twenty years on. Something about not being wrong so far, and if anything ahead of the game.
Hansen will be about as remembered 20 years from now as Paul Erlich.

Quote:
At one point he says he's already found AGW (=>3SD) in the last several years, at another he says if we see "several consecutive years with 3SD deviation that would be the "smoking gun".

Whichever way you take it, he is asserting that the surface temperature data should be used, and > 3SD is the 99% percentile of variation and therefore must be manmade....
Of course it's man-made. What's behind the positive energy balance if not the greenhouse effect? "Just warming since the Little Ice Age" doesn't cut it; global warming means energy accumulation on a massive scale. It doesn't just happen.
Really? Can you substantiate that without asserting Belief in Models? That is the point of my comment here. Many things "don't just happen" in climate but happen for reasons that are poorly understood or modeled because the chaotic behavior is not easily handled.

"Just warming since the Little Ice Age" doesn't cut it? What exactly happens when a planet comes out of a Little Ice Age other than "just warming?"
 
... we see scenario B, the middle scenario; you're claiming we see the results of draconian emissions cuts today, the low scenario, when we clearly do not.

Even less so recently.

The real pink elephant is in

" ...they opted to create, through legislation, penalties, fines and taxes ..."

A projected night-terror, or what? "Draconian" covers that lot, but the detail has to be drawn out by a need to see them. And of course it applied to the minimal scenario, which was meant to be at the low end of realistic, verging on the fantastic, and weren't expected to apply for at least a decade.

"They opted to create ..." - it's as if a Revolution has overturned a tyrant.

The B Scenario, the middle and most considered, has pretty much panned-out. And serious (let alone draconian) measures to change matters are as fantastical today as in 1988. What is different is that AGW has muscled its way onto centre-stage in the meantime, because of climate change.
 
What a terrifically intellectual discussion this has devolved into. So-n-so lied. So-n-so didn't! How brilliant, how insightful ! Did it ever occur to either of you that the truth or falsity of statement by some non-researcher, non-primary source is of no relevece to the underlying issue of climate change ?

I'm regularly disgusted by illogical arguments, and one of the first signals that things are going off the tracks is when people referring the the "Insert name" theory of such-n-such instead of briefly explaining the fundamental point. It's a great debater's technique for inserting a massive and therefore difficult to rebut body of work into a discussion without going to the effort of laying a foundation. It's really only valid when the audience all understand and agree on the definition of the idea.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=94182

NASA recently released the source code for Hansen's model. I performed a brief review and I have toi say the quality of the code is very poor. It contains the sort of organizational problems that I used to see in undergraduate homework programs in the 1970s (before better tools and languages avoided many of the problems) That is not to say the model is wrong, but personally I'd be hesitant to make any major claims based on such a low quality tool. The possibility of error in the code is significant and I wonder what sort of test cases were used to give confidence to the results ? I don't see any test verification suite for the units.

-S

That's why completely indepdent teams around the world are building their own models. It means we have more than one source to make claims that are based on the output of models.
 
In the paper, of course. The talk to Congress was as we've noted, simple generalities. "Business as usual" will get you this huge T spike, "Draconian emissions cuts" will get you this nice moderate world. The paper does go into the model although rather briefly.

It does go into the model quite a lot, and it refers to it pretty much from the get-go. Any projections from 1988 were based on the model that stevea finds so untidy. The B Scenario - the middle one - is the one that's reported in most detail. The others, let's remember, are deliberately deigned to be outliers.

Hansen will be about as remembered 20 years from now as Paul Erlich.

A prediction! May you still be around in twenty years time to have fun made of you for it.

Some names that will fade into obscurity : Michaels, McIntyre, Singer, Gray, Lindzen.

Really? Can you substantiate that without asserting Belief in Models? That is the point of my comment here. Many things "don't just happen" in climate but happen for reasons that are poorly understood or modeled because the chaotic behavior is not easily handled.

Chaotic behaviour can distribute energy indeterminately, but it doesn't create it. Global warming involves a massive amount of energy accumulation. That's about as simple a model as you can get.

The benchmark we have is the big bad analogue model we call home, and that's been accumulating energy just as predicted - by reining-in outgoings.

"Chaos" is no refuge. Weather is chaotic, but you still expect summer to be warmer than winter.

"Just warming since the Little Ice Age" doesn't cut it? What exactly happens when a planet comes out of a Little Ice Age other than "just warming?"

If the fluid skim on the surface of Planet Earth warms up, it does it by accumulating energy. Nothing "just" gets warm - see "conservation of energy".
 
That's why completely indepdent teams around the world are building their own models. It means we have more than one source to make claims that are based on the output of models.

Yes, but, no, um ... if contrarians can keep the focus on 1988 they won't have to face what's actually transpired since. Taking refuge in the past, I calls it.
 
A projected night-terror, or what? "Draconian" covers that lot, but the detail has to be drawn out by a need to see them. And of course it applied to the minimal scenario, which was meant to be at the low end of realistic, verging on the fantastic, and weren't expected to apply for at least a decade.

"They opted to create ..." - it's as if a Revolution has overturned a tyrant.

The B Scenario, the middle and most considered, has pretty much panned-out. And serious (let alone draconian) measures to change matters are as fantastical today as in 1988. What is different is that AGW has muscled its way onto centre-stage in the meantime, because of climate change.

Not mine but Hansen's words.

Although perhaps Draconian you preferred?
 
Yes, but, no, um ... if contrarians can keep the focus on 1988 they won't have to face what's actually transpired since. Taking refuge in the past, I calls it.
It appears to be you infatuated (a bit unhealthy at that) with Hansen as if his serendipitous "prediction" was anything more than akin to going to the carnival to have your weight guessed.

It was warming up to 1988, a trend was established. He extrapolated it. Big deal. Strange how when HadCRUT3 data is laid over his prophecy graph it doesn't look so good. No, the gases weren't correct either. Then again, Hansen, the same one doing the predicting is also the gatekeeper of temperature data.


The error in Hansen's U.S. temp data has somehow mysteriously returned with no explanation; Hansen wanted 1998 higher than 1934, so he just changed it back. AUP stated UHI has been accounted for in IPCC. It has not. No physical studies were done by Jones at Hadley; it was all based on untested assumptions crap shooting. Below is perhaps one of the most comprehensive studies conducted on UHI effects.
http://www.geography.uc.edu/~kenhinke/uhi/Hinkel&Nelson_JGR-A_2007.pdf
3. On the basis of rural and urban group averages for
the period 1 December to 31 March of four winters, the
urban area is ~2 deg C warmer than the rural area. It is not
uncommon for the MUHID to exceed 4 deg C.
What gives you any confidence in the current surface station network when a town of 4500 can have such an effect on temperature?
AUP, is this your idea of IPCC addressing UHI?


Nowhere in Hansen's 1988 utterances did he mention in any quantitative way, solar, clouds, water vapor, UHI, precipitation or any other of the many mechanisms. No, it's only CO2 that's important.

As I've tried to convey on several occasions, climate models are about tuning and parameterization. For some reason, the AGW gang here seem to think climate models are "validated". Nothing can be further from the truth. Monkeys on keyboards is a good analogy on climate model predictions.

Please read about cloud feedbacks:
http://irina.eas.gatech.edu/EAS_spring2006/Stephens2005.pdf
Predictions of global warming
by GCMs forced with prescribed increases of atmospheric
CO2 are uncertain, and the range of uncertainty
has, seemingly, not changed much from initial estimates
given decades ago.

How many more do you want? 10, 20, 30? You're basing all your statements about climate models on assumptions they are "reliable" and the AGW scripted responses. We have already presented several examples illustrating climate model folly. The so-called "evaluations" of them are done by the modelers themselves.

AGW is now caught with it's pants down. Met O is trying to salvage it somehow:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/317/5839/796
Our system predicts that internal variability will partially offset the anthropogenic global warming signal for the next few years. However, climate will continue to warm, with at least half of the years after 2009 predicted to exceed the warmest year currently on record.:jaw-dropp

Met O January 2007, not from a newspaper CD. Directly from their website:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20070104.html
2007 - forecast to be the warmest year yet
:D

And a special note:
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/
For the period of June 1 - TODAY, only 1977 has experienced LESS tropical cyclone activity than 2007.
You know what that means don't you? Where has all the global warming gone?
 

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