Global warming

Interesting. If you review the threads (or everywhere for that matter) , the AGW'rs are the ones using that method.
Now, there is a known fact that there are not ID papers in peer reviewed magazines. There are lots of "anti AGW" (as you call them) in peer reviewed magazines. There are not well known scientists in the ID field. For just ONE you can check Lindzen background. There are lots of other well known and respected meteorlogists and climate scientists in the "anti AGW" camp.
Is not serious to equate ID with "anti AGW".

LR, you had linked to a number of studies on solar influences.

Have you read the recent paper by Lockwood et al that asserts the net influence of solar in the last couple of decades is nil? Also the rebuttals to that paper. This is a paper that many have thought put an end to the subject of solar as a recent primary driver of warming.

I've got the several rebuttals downloaded but didn't save the links because they were in the discussion at www.climateaudit.org. That's currently got DOS attacks followed by having been slashdotted and linked through by Instapundit.com. Maybe it's time to offer to set up a mirror site.

Anyway, in a day or two I can get the rebuttals links back, if no one else has them.
 
I've got the several rebuttals downloaded but didn't save the links because they were in the discussion at www.climateaudit.org. That's currently got DOS attacks followed by having been slashdotted and linked through by Instapundit.com. Maybe it's time to offer to set up a mirror site.

A bit off topic but it could be there was no actual DOS attack. Not only did Steve and CA get slashdotted and instapundited, they got Rush L'ed (13m+ listeners) and Brit Hume'd (1.9m+ watchers). It's no wonder they're down. His [hosted] servers were nowhere near ready for that kind of traffic.
 
A bit off topic but it could be there was no actual DOS attack. Not only did Steve and CA get slashdotted and instapundited, they got Rush L'ed (13m+ listeners) and Brit Hume'd (1.9m+ watchers). It's no wonder they're down. His [hosted] servers were nowhere near ready for that kind of traffic.

:eek:

Well tell them all to go away so I can get my links.
 
I guess if every scientist doesn't agree 100% with every other scientist, then the bulk of the evidence can be thrown out?

You sound like one of those "evolution is a theory in crisis" creationists.

telling yourself a thing isnt so doesnt make it go away ...:rolleyes:
 
telling yourself a thing isnt so doesnt make it go away ...:rolleyes:
That's what I'm saying. The anti-AGW position is wrong, and pretending that there is strong scientific evidence against reality doesn't make that position any less wrong. Being resistant to the reality of AGW has taken on cult-like status for some folks, and for most of them it has certainly clouded their judgment.

Oh well... I can't un-brainwash Scientologists or Creationists either.
 
The anti-AGW position is wrong, ...

Depending on the exact nature of the position, that may or may not be the case.

For example, one "anti-AGW" position might be that 1998 was not the warmest year of the century. Is that position wrong?
 
Depending on the exact nature of the position, that may or may not be the case.

For example, one "anti-AGW" position might be that 1998 was not the warmest year of the century. Is that position wrong?
News flash: Globally, its still the case that it's either 1998 or 2005. The tempest in a teapot (which Mcintyre deserves credit for notwithstanding) involves only US temperature records.
 
News flash: Globally, its still the case that it's either 1998 or 2005. The tempest in a teapot (which Mcintyre deserves credit for notwithstanding) involves only US temperature records.

News flash: I am aware of that but the point remains. There are many positions. Each position must be weighed on its own merit...independently of the person stating the position.
 
You mean "Professor Lindzen who is is a dynamical meteorologist with interests in the broad topics of climate, planetary waves, monsoon meteorology, planetary atmospheres, and hydrodynamic instability. His research involves studies of the role of the tropics in mid-latitude weather and global heat transport, the moisture budget and its role in global change, the origins of ice ages, seasonal effects in atmospheric transport, stratospheric waves, and the observational determination of climate sensitivity. He has made major contributions to the development of the current theory for the Hadley Circulation, which dominates the atmospheric transport of heat and momentum from the tropics to higher latitudes, and has advanced the understanding of the role of small scale gravity waves in producing the reversal of global temperature gradients at the mesopause. He pioneered the study of how ozone photochemistry, radiative transfer and dynamics interact with each other. He is currently studying the ways in which unstable eddies determine the pole to equator temperature difference, and the nonlinear equilibration of baroclinic instability and the contribution of such instabilities to global heat transport. He has also been developing a new approach to air-sea interaction in the tropics, and is actively involved in parameterizing the role of cumulus convection in heating and drying the atmosphere. He has developed models for the Earth's climate with specific concern for the stability of the ice caps, the sensitivity to increases in CO2, the origin of the 100,000 year cycle in glaciation, and the maintenance of regional variations in climate. In cooperation with colleagues and students, he is developing a sophisticated, but computationally simple, climate model to test whether the proper treatment of cumulus convection will significantly reduce climate sensitivity to the increase of greenhouse gases. Prof. Lindzen is a recipient of the AMS's Meisinger, and Charney Awards, and AGU's Macelwane Medal. He is a corresponding member of the NAS Committee on Human Rights, a member of the NRC Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, and a Fellow of the AAAS1. He is a consultant to the Global Modeling and Simulation Group at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, and a Distinguished Visiting Scientist at California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. (Ph.D., '64, S.M., '61, A.B., '60, Harvard University)"
(http://www-eaps.mit.edu/faculty/lindzen.htm) ?

There are many papers, as I listed. I guess that if the "climate" for dissenting scientist were more friendly you could find more, as you do in chinese and russian P.R. magazines.
I can compile a lists of first class meteorologists and climate scientists who dissent about AGW but I'm pretty sure that it would be ignored as usual and it can be seem as an appeal to autority, so what's the point?

And about the social scentist Oreskes, I'd rather look at Benny Peiser.


There really isn’t many anti-AGW appearing in peer reviewed literature. Anyone who scans the major peer review journals will easily note the lack of anti-AGW papers. Lindzen is actually a good example, but not in the way you think. He hasn’t published on climate change in a peer review journal in over a decade.

Oreskes-2004 In a paper itself published in Science she reviewed 10 years of papers published in Science with the words “climate change” of the 928 papers not one was anti-AGW while 75% either explicitly or implicitly accepted the view that climate change was occurring and was caused by humans. Peer review came up with a handful of papers which may have vaguely been ant-AGW, but this still pales in comparison to the 100s on the other side.

In other words the peer review literatrue is very hevily weighted to one side in this debate. Hence the claim "our work is being surpressed" but how often have we hears that from people peddling fake science?
 
I read the paper and what is amazing is that the closest model to the recent descent in temperature is the one by the two chinese guys I posted before. Piers Corbyn (I expect the ad-homs to begin now) have a interesting view on that, but it would be great if you can posts the links you mention.
Climate audit is still down, I guess that "an Oil corporation" can restore the site ASAP, but it seems that the "millions of dollars" they dedicate to "distort science" aren't working.


LR, you had linked to a number of studies on solar influences.

Have you read the recent paper by Lockwood et al that asserts the net influence of solar in the last couple of decades is nil? Also the rebuttals to that paper. This is a paper that many have thought put an end to the subject of solar as a recent primary driver of warming.

I've got the several rebuttals downloaded but didn't save the links because they were in the discussion at www.climateaudit.org. That's currently got DOS attacks followed by having been slashdotted and linked through by Instapundit.com. Maybe it's time to offer to set up a mirror site.

Anyway, in a day or two I can get the rebuttals links back, if no one else has them.
 
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Global warming for begginers

[FUN]

I just got my eyes about a delicious article by Orson Scott Card (ad homs start here) .....
All in a Good Cause
By Orson Scott Card

Editor’s note: This article first appeared in The Rhinoceros Times of Greensboro, North Carolina, and is used here by permission.

Here's a story you haven't heard, and you should have.

An intelligence source, working for a government agency. He's not a spy, he's an analyst. He uses computers to crunch numbers and at the end of his work, out pops the truth that was hiding in the original data. Let's call him "Mann."

The trouble with Mann is, he has an ideology. He knows what he wants his results to be. And the original numbers aren't giving him that data. So the agency he works for won't be able to persuade people to fight the war he wants to fight.

Well, that's not acceptable.............

Full article at http://www.ldsmag.com/ideas/070313goodprint.html

[/FUN]
 
Amazing, I tought you was in agreement with sentences like "climate is not weather".....and that "model's can't forecast a particular year of temperature".
I guess that there is a needed recheck of the graphs you are using. For details go to the last link on my signature.
 
Amazing, I tought you was in agreement with sentences like "climate is not weather".....and that "model's can't forecast a particular year of temperature".
I guess that there is a needed recheck of the graphs you are using. For details go to the last link on my signature.
No sale LR. You're the one who posted "recent descent". What in Odin's name is this based on?
 
Actually that's a pretty good point.

Is a rhetorical question a "point"? Let's not get into that.

What is left of science?

Plenty, despite some people's best efforts.

Arguably that might be interpreting science in terms of public policy that was statist in method, while right of science might be the opposite. But then I was really commenting on this "Exxon conspiracy" document's orientation, and that it was promulgated by UCS.

Exxon's activites have also prompted a letter from the Royal Society

Royal Society tells Exxon: stop funding climate change denial
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2006/sep/20/oilandpetrol.business.

Is the Royal Society on the left, as you understand (and used) the term? It was de facto radical back when established society was grounded on unscientific principles, but not so much today, when it isn't. Not least because of such institutions as the Royal Society. Respect.

(Notice how the sub-editor's paw-marks are all over the above referenced piece. The Royal Society "tells" a jumped-up colonial corporation to behave. In the teaser (usually a sub's contribution, even when the writer provides a perfectly good one) it "challenges" Exxon. In the next paragraph - the writer's own teaser, and better than the sub's, quelle surprise - it "demands" that Exxon not continue to promote the misrepresentation of science.)

Call me old-fashioned, but I'm pretty dubious about any institution - from religion, through corporation, to web-site - which is in bad odour with the Royal Society. It's a rule-of-thumb sort of thing.
 
I first posted a reference but the source was linked from a non-respectable source (f*cking ID'rs) . It seems that the NASA corrected datasets found by McIntyre aren't available yet (for Global temperature, for just US they are updated and now shows something interesting http://michellemalkin.com/2007/08/0...8-was-not-the-warmest-year-in-the-millenium/). So for now I'll post some datasets who shows that the temperature is just stable:

http://www.junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/MSUvsRSS.html
http://www.junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/UAHMSUglobe-m.html
 
No sale LR. You're the one who posted "recent descent". What in Odin's name is this based on?

Was, 2006 was cooler than 2005, and the results for 2007 aren't in yet so it might be cooler than 2005. There are La Nina precursors, which are cooling, and a probable end to the Australian drought, which is also cooling. On the other side of the balance, Arctic ice is on the low-side, but that's likely to have less impact. After all, the Arctic is pretty damn' small and oblique and most of the impact will be directly on the Arctic Ocean, which can, of course, suck up a lot before it shows any signs of noticing.

Two years of not being warmer than 2005 would certainly be recent.


Global warming: Met Office predicts plateau then record temperatures
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/aug/10/weather.uknews

Powerful computer simulations used to create the world's first global warming forecast suggests temperature rises will stall in the next two years, before rising sharply at the end of the decade.

Looks like the 9 bad years for AGW is set to reach 11. If you have any faith in models, of course. Which these guys clearly do, with gusto. This is cock-on-the-block stuff. It's not Lindzen's sliding "cooling phase within a decade", this is straight-up short-term stuff. With a bit of luck we'll all be here to assess it in five years time.

My own prediction for 2012 is that Lindzen's decade will still be sliding away into the future, whereas Hansen's decade will have halved. And there'll be no more talk of existing cooling trends.
 
No question bout one thing.

Reality is a lot stranger than fiction.

No, it isn't. Reality just keeps going on, and on a human level it's easily predictable. The strangeness of fiction is market-driven to some extent, but the extremes are best mapped against the mind-altering substances available and fashionable at any given time and place. Reality - on a day-to-day basis - just plods along. Historians 50 or 100 years up the line won't see anything strange in what's going on now. Peculiar yes, but everything's peculiar to its circumstances.
 
Interesting. If you review the threads (or everywhere for that matter) , the AGW'rs are the ones using that method.
Now, there is a known fact that there are not ID papers in peer reviewed magazines. There are lots of "anti AGW" (as you call them) in peer reviewed magazines. There are not well known scientists in the ID field. For just ONE you can check Lindzen background. There are lots of other well known and respected meteorlogists and climate scientists in the "anti AGW" camp.
Is not serious to equate ID with "anti AGW".

Except that the actual papers that Lindzen has had published on anti AGW are as scarce as hen's teeth.
 

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