Moderated Global Warming Discussion

[Courier]

And I think it's absurd someone missed the big climate change thread and started their own.

But alas, c'est la vie.

Couldn't find it. I did look.

 

[Red Baron Farms]

Couldn't find it. I did look.

Look again. http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=176635

 

[DC]

http://nationalacademies.org/onpi/06072005.pdf

Is the warming ALL due to human industry?

Do natural sources of GHGs play a part?

Do sunspots and earth's natural variation of its angle of rotation play a part?

Does the Earth's variation in its distance from the Sun play a part?

I think its absurd to claim to know for sure what's causing it and to discount with 100% certainty that other factors play no part.

its from 2005.....

1. climatologists do not ascribe 100% of the warming to human causes, when memory serves right its more like 60%.

2. all factors you brought up are quantified pretty well.

3. Climatologists do not claim 100% certainty, even your source made that clear in the first sentence....

what is your point?

 

[Courier]

its from 2005.....

1. climatologists do not ascribe 100% of the warming to human causes, when memory serves right its more like 60%.

2. all factors you brought up are quantified pretty well.

3. Climatologists do not claim 100% certainty, even your source made that clear in the first sentence....

what is your point?

If you can't figure out the point of the thread, you shouldn't be participating.

 

[DC]

If you can't figure out the point of the thread, you shouldn't be participating.

well so far it seems the point is you create strawmen and then set them on fire.

why do you not respond to my other points? who claimed 100% certainty? who ascribed 100% of the warming to human causes?

did you ever read any of the IPCC AR's?

 

[DC]

btw orbital forcings should be cooling us, this started already a while ago, we are entering another glaciation period. just recently the new PAGES reconstructions showed that also, we were cooling, untill the CO2 warming took over and we warmed with unprecedented speed.

 

[marplots]

http://nationalacademies.org/onpi/06072005.pdf

Is the warming ALL due to human industry?

Do natural sources of GHGs play a part?

Do sunspots and earth's natural variation of its angle of rotation play a part?

Does the Earth's variation in its distance from the Sun play a part?

I think its absurd to claim to know for sure what's causing it and to discount with 100% certainty that other factors play no part.

What percent certainty are you currently at?

What percent would you need to get to to just file it all away and move on with your life?

 

[Courier]

btw orbital forcings should be cooling us, this started already a while ago, we are entering another glaciation period. just recently the new PAGES reconstructions showed that also, we were cooling, untill the CO2 warming took over and we warmed with unprecedented speed.

I believe that the Earth is warming.

 

[DC]

I believe that the Earth is warming.

that is not a matter of believe, that is a matter of knowing it or being ignorant about it or flatout deny it. that the world is warming up is a fact, a measured fact.

 

[Courier]

that is not a matter of believe, that is a matter of knowing it or being ignorant about it or flatout deny it. that the world is warming up is a fact, a measured fact.

You seem mad.

Why you mad, bro?

 

[DC]

You seem mad.

Why you mad, bro?

why mad? im still puzzled as to what the point of your OP is. you created a bunch of strawmen. what for? what is your point?

 

[Courier]

why mad? im still puzzled as to what the point of your OP is. you created a bunch of strawmen. what for? what is your point?

You know what the point was.

 

[lomiller]

Is the warming ALL due to human industry?

Pretty much, yes.

Do natural sources of GHGs play a part?

No
Isotope studies show that all the additional CO2 in the atmosphere came from burning fossil fuels

Do sunspots.

No

No current warming can be attributed to sunspots. (Or more accurately the tiny changes in solar activity that seem to correlate with changes in sunspots. The sunspots themselves have no impact on climate of course)

natural variation of its angle of rotation play a part?

Does the Earth's variation in its distance from the Sun play a part?

No

The earths orbital forcing are in a cooling phase.

I think its absurd to claim to know for sure what's causing it and to discount with 100% certainty that other factors play no part.

When there is evidence for something else playing a [part it will be taken into account. What’s absurd is suggesting things for which there is absolutely no evidence be taken into account.

 

[lomiller]

its from 2005.....

1. climatologists do not ascribe 100% of the warming to human causes, when memory serves right its more like 60%.

My recollection is that it’s more like 80% since 1900, but all or nearly all of the natural contribution came before 1950.

 

[aleCcowaN]

You are missing an important part of the puzzle. If agriculture is used to sequester the excess carbon from FF in the atmosphere, so that the level is no longer rising, but instead starts dropping, then you have your well proven benefits of increased carbon in the soil AND don't need to deal with the unknowns of further increasing atmospheric carbon.

That was just wishful thinking. I'm still waiting for the serious peer reviewed papers you might show to back the 1% of what you are easily implying in your happy speech. I'm also waiting a for commercial proposition from yours, as such an abundance of advertising speech is often prologue to those propositions.

 

[batvette]

My guess is you know very little about agriculture in the Midwest.

I don't think I have to to offer that if the climate is going to change it would be a prudent thing to try and mitigate the negative effects as best you can. This means storing and moving water to where it is needed and away from where it is not, a well as a possible change in the types of crops you grow.

It's just science, not hard to figure out.

 

[macdoc]

Is the warming ALL due to human industry?

Is this warming globally manmade yes - not all of it is GHG some is land use.
The answers below are related to THIS warming period..

Do natural sources of GHGs play a part?

No - there are no significant volcanic activities just now. There have been a few like Pinatubo and the signal was clear for a couple of years and bought us some time.

Do sunspots

you are talking about Maunder minimums and at best there is some influence and the influence would be towards a cooling...it's not at the moment of any significance.

and earth's natural variation of its angle of rotation play a part?

no

Does the Earth's variation in its distance from the Sun play a part?

no

I think its absurd to claim to know for sure what's causing it and to discount with 100% certainty that other factors play no part.

None of what you listed play any role in this warming and the parts played in climate cycles are well understood on a macro level tho like aerodynamic theory - there are always holes to fill in the detail

Orbitals ( Milenchovich cycles ) are normally the drivers of climate change over long periods and CO2 is a critical FEEDBACK mechanism that amplifies ( in both directions ) the orbital influence

Up until us...

wiki image ( read from left to right )

we were drifting to a cooler regime eventually leading to an ice age.
That has been cancelled.

This is not rocket science - it has been known for over a hundred years.
Move on.
Background/history
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/summary.htm

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/12/online-video-lectures-on-climate-change/

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/04/water-vapour-feedback-or-forcing/

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Empirical-evidence-that-humans-are-causing-global-warming.html

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/science/human-contribution-to-gw-faq.html

The hard part is
a) knowing how the consequences will unfold in what time frame
b) coping with those consequences
c) reducing future emissions to mitigate additional warming.

 

[Courier]

Ok, so we know that most of the Earth's warming took place during the last 20 years of the 20th Century. How much did the Earth warm during the first decade of the 21st century?

 

[macdoc]

The atmosphere warmed steeply once the S02 was cleared ( global dimming ).

Atmosphere is transient and of far less importance than the ocean and cryosphere both of which continue a steady trend to warming despite wishful thinking from the denier crowd.



and even with the outlier 1998 as a fav base point for the denier crowd that there has been little warming since..... ( 1998 combined a record El Nino with a warm year globally )

Met Office figures confirm noughties as warmest decade in recorded history
The past 10 years have been the warmest decade recorded in 160 years, despite 1998 being the warmest year on record

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/08/met-office-warmest-decade

and

With the exception of 1998, the nine warmest years in the 132-year record all have occurred since 2000. Shown here, global temperature anomalies (above or below the average) averaged from 2008 through 2012.
CREDIT: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

http://www.livescience.com/26277-nasa-2012-ninth-hottest-year.html

any more trick questions?? or are you an honest inquirer??

 

[Pixel42]

Ok, so we know that most of the Earth's warming took place during the last 20 years of the 20th Century.

Most of the 20th century warming actually occurred during two periods: 1910 to 1945 and 1976 to 2000.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record

How much did the Earth warm during the first decade of the 21st century?

2001 was 0.52C warmer than the 20th century average and 2010 was 0.62C warmer, so that's 0.1C of warming in the first decade of the 21st century. But a decade is really too short a period to reliably detect an underlying trend beneath the noise.