Moderated Global Warming Discussion

[Kuko 4000]

Trakar, I edited my post before you posted yours, I misread what they said at first. Please look at the edited post

 

[Lennart Hyland]

This is pretty much the best short lecture (under 30 minutes) about the impacts of climate change that I've seen, recommended:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan_Rahmstorf

Thank you for this!

Very nice lecture indeed! Or should I say terrifying

 

[DC]

Poor effort.

The 11 year sunspot cycle isn't the ONLY solar cycle , look them up DD

It's NOT just NASA re-thinking the Sun and how it affects planet Earth

Heard about SSW's? Wonder where the energy comes from? ..... hint it isn't a trace gas in the atmosphere

Sudden stratospheric warming to affect the US
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OJyOLrrCols




A Possible Transfer Mechanism for the 11-Year Solar Cycle to the Lower Stratosphere
http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/a...hanism-11-year-solar-cycle-lower-stratosphere


Equatorial and Low Latitude Ionospheric Effects During Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events
http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/a...ts-during-sudden-stratospheric-warming-events



Ask from where do SSWs come?
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=512&c=5



The mystery of recent stratospheric temperature trends
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v491/n7426/full/nature11579.html



Doug L. Hoffman: Science Gets The Stratosphere Wrong
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=10958

what a joke of an article the last link is.....
settled science? yes the main parts are settled. CO2 has IR absorbing and reradiating properties, settled. Humans burning fossil fuels release CO2, settled. land use changes lead to increased CO2 levels, settled.
increasing CO2 levels lead to warming, settled. how much warming exactly? not settled! will a doubling of CO2 lead to less than 1.5°C of warming? no, settled. Does increasing ocean temps. lead to water expansion? yes, settled- will melting ice masses on land lead to sea level rise? yes, settled. etc etc. many things in Climatology are indeed settled. since decades. but as it is usual in science, they research things into the smalest details. and will debate about the details for millenia.

you find one thing that was missunderstood or not understood very well and want to imply all those settled things are not settled anymore?

once you will actually read an IPCC AR from WGI, you will learn that there are many more things that are not settled, they are still researching and learning.

and nothing of your quoted stuff means AGW is not true or not happening. it just shows its not just some madeup hoax, but it is actually real science.

 

[Haig]

nothing of your quoted stuff means AGW is not true or not happening. it just shows its not just some madeup hoax, but it is actually real science.

It's just that as Co2 levels climb higher AGW is taking a break Who's says?

Why it's Dr. James Hansen and Reto Ruedy of NASA GISS

Quote of the week – Hansen concedes the age of flatness
Here is the money quote, which pretty much ends the caterwauling from naysayers about global temperature being stalled for the last decade.

The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slow down in the growth rate of net climate forcing.

Gosh, I thought Hansen had claimed that “climate forcings” had overwhelmed natural variability?

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/16/quote-of-the-week-hansen-concedes-the-age-of-flatness/

Wonder if that could be because the Sun has become less active in solar cycle 24 and is forecast to be even less active in solar cycle 25 a solar minimum in fact?

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/09/december-solar-activity-in-a-big-slump/#more-77236

 

[DC]

It's just that as Co2 levels climb higher AGW is taking a break Who's says?

Why it's Dr. James Hansen and Reto Ruedy of NASA GISS

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/16/quote-of-the-week-hansen-concedes-the-age-of-flatness/

Wonder if that could be because the Sun has become less active in solar cycle 24 and is forecast to be even less active in solar cycle 25 a solar minimum in fact?

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/09/december-solar-activity-in-a-big-slump/#more-77236

would you actually read what Hansen wrote, you would know that AGW is by no means taking a break.

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2013/20130115_Temperature2012.pdf

We conclude that background global warming is continuing, consistent with the known planetary energy imbalance, even though it is likely that the slowdown in climate forcing growth rate contributed to the recent apparent standstill in global temperature.

also the ocean heat content shows that global warming has not stopped or took a break whatsoever.

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/

your little WUWT cult website is bollocks.

and even when SC 25 will be very inactive and lead to massive cooling, it doesn't change the fact that our CO2 output has put a positive forcing in the climate system.
nobody ever said CO2 is the only forcing..actually the contrary.

ETA: also don't forget that Hansen is specifically talking about the global surface temperature. not about the global warming in general.

 

[DC]

so considering the low solar activity and the double La nina should have led to alot of cooling, but somehow it did not, it was not able to overwhelm the CO2 warming. it was merely able to cancel it out when it come to global surface temps.

while the deniers want to make a stop of AGW or a falsification of AGW out of that, in reality it shosw that AGW is true and happening. time to grow up and face the problem.

 

[bobwtfomg]

Heard about SSW's? Wonder where the energy comes from? ..... hint it isn't a trace gas in the atmosphere

Nobody has claimed SSWs (no ' btw as it's a plural) are caused by a trace gas in the atmosphere.

Here's the standard explanation

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/01/08/what-is-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-ssw/

 

[Haig]

Nobody has claimed SSWs (no ' btw as it's a plural) are caused by a trace gas in the atmosphere.

Here's the standard explanation

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/01/08/what-is-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-ssw/

The "standard" explanation is claiming the weather below is causing this :-

The term SSW refers to what we observe – rapid warming (up to about 50 *°C in just a couple of days) in the stratosphere, between 10 km and 50 km up.

That takes a lot of energy Our aurora events take a huge amount of energy and it's been known for some time now this energy comes from the Sun in the form of CME's , Flares etc. Aurora can be successfully predicted from solar events. Similarly SSW's can also be predicted from solar events and their effects on our weather. See here:-

Updated 01/12/2013 @ 16:20 UTC
Solar Update

Solar activity was moderate on Friday with a pair of low level M-Class flares detected around Sunspot 1654. Things are a bit quieter thus far on Saturday morning. There will remain a chance for C-Class flares and perhaps another isolated M-Class event on Saturday.

Sunspot 1654 vs Jupiter (Friday) - By Ron Cottrell

http://www.solarham.net/archive/cottrell55.jpg

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http://www.solarham.net/



Updated 01/12/2013 @ 10:20 UTC
Solar Update / Impulsive M1.7 Flare

Sunspot 1654 is the largest Sunspot on the visible solar disk, however it is Sunspot 1652 currently producing much of the activity. Another impulsive solar flare, this time reaching M1.7, was detected at 08:38 UTC early Sunday morning. Image below by SDO.

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Jan 13 0839 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 907 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

http://www.n3kl.org/sun/images/noaa_xrays.gif?

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http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html
http://www.solarham.net/[/b]

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JET STREAM SHIFT PUBLIC WARNING SOLAR CLIMATE CHANGE
Solar Climate Change: Public Warning: This Weeks Major R5+ Solar Event To Produce Additional Stratospheric Warming

http://climaterealists.com/attachments/ftp/WA Red Warning January 2013 2.jpg

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The above extract is from the "Red Warning" report issued at the start of January from Piers Corbyn at WeatherAction.com

You would have noticed that there have been several recent commentators indicating that the current Sudden Polar Stratospheric Warming has induced a change to weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere producing a much colder circulation of air.

According to this report from Piers Corbyn, there will be Additional Stratospheric Warming, making the current conditions even worse, also including in this forecast is a higher chance of M7+ Earthquake, and an enhancement to storms…more to follow.

The last time we had an R5+ Solar event was from a forecast for the 26-27th October, this resulted in Hurricane Sandy and a M7.7 Earthquake in Canada…watch this space for more!

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=10944

So obviously our weather AND climate have the Sun as the main driver and as it goes further in to a new solar minimum we can expect a much cooler climate as was the case in the Dalton Minimum and Maunder Minimum. The Modern Warm Period will descend (quite quickly some say ) into another LIA period.

The Russia-Ukrainian project Astrometria on the Russian segment of International Space Station.

The main goal of the project:
The study of global processes occurring deeply inside the Sun and of consequent variations of physical processes in the system Sun-Earth as well as the study of fine structure and dynamics of active and quiet regions of the photosphere and of their cyclic variations.

The study of cyclic variation of behaviour of the Sun as of the nearest star and of the physical processes occurring deeply inside it as well as of energy and thermal instability of its condition has a key meaning for all astrophysics, because the theory of stars was actually born in the process of and proven by the study of the Sun. The Sun is available for a detailed research which is impossible for any other star. The physical processes observed on the Sun are obviously characteristic for the majority of other stars but they can be studied in detail only on the Sun. Unfortunately, nowadays it is impossible to find and study variations of radiation intensity and radii of the stars similar to the Sun. This fact additionally confirms the importance of the research dedicated to these phenomena on the Sun particularly by observations from airless space, because this research will supply all needed information about the mechanism of energy transport from the center of a star to its surface and about the nature of processes occurring deeply inside the stars. The study of physical processes on the Sun not only gives us an understanding of a large number of astrophysical questions, but also of the questions of geophysics, meteorology, biology and medicine. All energy sources used by humanity are linked to the Sun.

http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/sa_tsi_1600_en.jpg

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Nowadays, a few years before the beginning of the upcoming global cooling, we are going through an unstable phase when the temperature will oscillate around the reached maximum without any substantial increase. In 2008 the global temperature on our planet not only did not rise but even fell down due to the decreasing (and record low over 30 years of observations from space) solar luminosity. The stabilization of the global Earth temperature in 1998–2005 and its downward tendency in 2006–2008 is an irrefutable evidence of the fact that our Sun is no longer able to warm the Earth the same way as in the past and that an anthropogenic global warming is a big myth. 1998–2005, being the warmest years for 150 years of weather observations, will stay on the peak of 2-century warming. By the middle of the ongoing century, the new (19th for the last 7500 years) little ice age similar to the Maunder one, will come. The global temperature will fall even without limitation of greenhouse gases emission by industrialized states. That is why the Kyoto treaty is useless so far and should be put off till at least 150 years later. However, climate changes on the planet will spread unevenly depending on the latitude. The fall of temperature will least affect the equatorial region of the Earth and will mostly influence the temperate climate regions. In whole, climate changes are not under the control of humans. A reasonable way to combat these changes is to maintain an economic growth in order to get prepared to alternating coolings and warmings. The coming global cooling will be replaced by a regular 2-century global warming only by the beginning of XXII century.

The upcoming cooling will lead to a substantial decrease of concentrations of water vapour (the main greenhouse gas) and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as these concentrations are directly dependent on the temperature. The global cooling will also lead to the extension of the total area of ice and snow cover ― to the rise of the mean albedo of the underlying surface. Due to the above changes, the amount of absorbed solar energy by the whole underlying surface of the Earth and the share of greenhouse effect will considerably decrease. We should expect an additional sharp intensification of cooling due to the above secondary factors which are a direct consequence of a 2-century decrease of the TSI ― a global change on the Sun.

That is why we should intensify the research on this most complex problem ever faced by scientists by precise measurements of the global parameters of the Sun, because the amount of solar energy supplied to the Earth is directly dependent on the solar diameter, i.e. on the area of radiating surface of our star. Unfortunately, the image of the Sun, not distorted by the instability of the Earth atmosphere and by oscillatory processes within it, can only be received from airless space. That is why only prolonged special precise (with the error of ± 3–4 km) extra-atmospheric measurements of the temporal variations of the shape and diameter of the Sun, planned by us within the Russia-Ukrainian project Astrometria on the Russian segment of International Space Station, would be able to give a more accurate climate forecast. If the Astrometria project is implemented in time, we will be able to issue a reliable forecast of the time and scale of the upcoming global fall of temperature on the Earth within approximately 8 years by conducting an active research of temporal variations of the shape and diameter of the Sun and of the solar energy flux on-board the ISS during no less than a half of the ongoing 24th "short" 11-year cycle.

http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/index1_eng.html



Cold Climate Forecasters

Researchers who have predicted a long term solar minimum or ‘solar hibernation’ and/or a new climate change to a period of long lasting cold weather based upon solar activity.

1. Dr. Habibullo I. Abdussamatov: Russian Academy of Scientists. Head of space research at the Pulkova Observatory, St. Petersburg.
Comment: RIA Novosti, August 25, 2006: “Khabibullo Abdusamatov said he and his colleagues had concluded that a period of global cooling similar to one seen in the late 17th century – when canals froze in the Netherlands and people had to leave their dwellings in Greenland – could start in 2012-2105 and reach its peak in 2055-2060….He said he believed the future climate change would have very serious consequences and that authorities should start preparing for them today….”

...

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A Cool White Christmas – almost two thirds of the USA has snow cover

Where’s that “global warming” when you really want it?

This map from NOAA’s National Snow Analyses page shows the snow depth data:
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/nsm_depth_2012122605_national1.jpg

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http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/...almost-two-thirdds-of-the-usa-has-snow-cover/




The world continues to COOL over the last 4 years - FACT
Joe Bastardi graph

Winter solstice brings deadly cold wave to northern Europe
http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpr...e-brings-deadly-cold-wave-to-northern-europe/



RUSSIANS FREEZE TO DEATH IN WORST WINTER SINCE STALIN'S GREAT PURGE
http://cdn.breitbart.com/mediaserver/Breitbart/Big-Peace/2012/12/20/russian_winter_reuters.jpg

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http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/...th-in-Worse-Winter-Since-Stalin-s-Great-Purge


Tornadoes at Christmastime – Note to McKibben and Romm – not that uncommon

Posted on December 26, 2012 by Anthony Watts
Before alarmists like Bill McKibben and Joe Romm start caterwauling about the tornadoes in the south yesterday as being a signature of “global warming”, I caution them not to make fools of themselves but instead note this from the National Weather Service:


The holiday may conjure visions of snow and ice, but twisters this time of year are not unheard of. Ten storm systems in the last 50 years have spawned at least one Christmastime tornado with winds of 113 mph or more in the South, said Chris Vaccaro, a National Weather Service spokesman in Washington, via email.

Source: The Weather Channel

Here’s a some notable Christmastime December-January outbreaks that happened well before CO2 was falsely blamed as being the cause of every severe weather event that makes the news:

1947 New Year’s Eve tornado outbreak December 31, 1947 Southern U.S. – 20 fatalities, 256 injuries (7 significant, 1 violent, 3 killer)

1949 Warren, Arkansas tornado outbreak January 3, 1949 South Central U.S. – 60 fatalities, 504 injuries (12 significant, 1 violent, 5 killer)

1957 Murphysburo, Illinois tornado outbreak December 18, 1957 Missouri – Illinois 23 17 fatalities (18 significant, 3 violent, 5 killer)

1971 Springfield, Missouri tornado outbreak December 14–15, 1971 Central United States 40 2 fatalities (10 significant, 2 killer)

Christmas 1982 tornado outbreak December 23–25, 1982 Central – Southeastern United States 43 3 fatalities (18 significant)

1987 West Memphis, Arkansas tornado December 14, 1987 Arkansas – Tennessee – 6 dead, 100 injured Rated F3

December 2000 Tuscaloosa tornado December 16, 2000 Southern United States 12 fatalities Deadly Tuscaloosa tornado caught live via Tower Cam (1 violent, 10 significant, 2 killer)e – 6 dead, 100 injured Rated F3

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/...-note-to-mckibben-and-romm-not-that-uncommon/




Cold Weather Across Europe, Asia Kills Hundreds

Cold weather in the past few days has sadly gone from severe to deadly. While unusually high snowfall has disrupted the travel plans of millions of Americans, freezing temperatures have taken the lives of hundreds of people from Central Europe to South Asia. The BBC reports that in Poland, 49 people have died; in Ukraine, 83; in Russia, 88; and in India, at least 93. The majority of those dead are the elderly and the homeless.

Besides being an obvious tragedy for many across the world, this is a reminder that “weather” is not “climate,” unless it suits the needs of environmental hotheads to claim that it is. When there’s a hot spell or a dry spell or a wet spell that can somehow be connected with the climate change narrative, the media resounds with panicky warnings. But when people die of frostbite in Punjab and temperatures hit -58F in Russia, the silence of the alarmists is deafening.

http://blogs.the-american-interest....ld-weather-across-europe-asia-kills-hundreds/

Edited for multiple breaches of Rule 5 and Rule 4.

Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: LashL

 

[bobwtfomg]

I give you a link to the standard explanation - you fill the thread with the woowoo explanation.

weatheraction is a site a site that sells weather forecasts based on "alternative" meteorology - the snake oil salesman of weathermen.
Boris Johnson's old chum Piers Corbyn didn't do too well predicting the weather at last summer's olympics.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/...ic-weather-forecast-please-look-away-now.html

Do you really want to know what the augur Corbyn foresees for the Opening Ceremony of the Olympic Games? Brace yourselves. “We’re very confident that there will be a lot of rain – a deluge, really – during the entire Olympic period, and we are 80 per cent sure that the Opening Ceremony itself will feature heavy rain, including hail and thunder.”

Isn't it against the rules of this site to go cut/paste crazy?

 

[Megalodon]

So let me get this straight: according to your "sources" we are going through a solar decline like the one during the Maunder minimum, and the warming rate didn't even significantly decrease? And you think that it somehow that "fact" strengthens your case?



In this graph you can clearly see how stable the surface temperature is, decade after decade after decade.

 

[DC]

wohooo the WUWT eddy minimum has arived at JREF.
it will leed to a new little ice age according to the guesses of climate science denialists.
and this based on some predictions from before SC24, which claimed virtually no solar activity in SC24, which we now know was a failed predictions, but that didn't stop the deniers, now it will just be the next SC that will be called the eddy minimum ^^
oh well in the WUWT alternative reality atleast.

 

[Trakar]

From Trakar's link:

http://ateson.com/ws/r/www.pnas.org/content/109/44/17995.full

Would love to find a link to the full study.

Let's see, I believe it is "Dolomite-rich coralline algae in reefs resist dissolution in acidified conditions" - http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1760.html

I believe that's paywalled w/o a nature climate change subscription.

As she's not on Staff at AUN she doesn't have a uni staff website with open-source copies of her publications. Let me poke around a bit and see if she has a copy up on a personal blog or web-page somewhere.

But Dr. Nash has a lot of related and interesting papers that have come out over the last several years. Such as these:

"First discovery of dolomite and magnesite in living coralline algae and its geobiological implications," - http://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/bitstream/2440/68559/1/hdl_68559.pdf

"Biomineralization of dolomite and magnesite discovered in tropical coralline
algae: a biological solution to the geological dolomite problem" - http://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/bitstream/2440/68547/1/hdl_68547.pdf


Seems Dr. Merinda Nash is, or was, a doctoral student here's multi-university article that came out shortly after the Nature piece: http://theconversation.edu.au/resea...ine-algae-but-not-necessarily-for-reefs-11255

 

[Trakar]

Trakar, I edited my post before you posted yours, I misread what they said at first. Please look at the edited post

No worries!

 

[Trakar]

so considering the low solar activity and the double La nina should have led to alot of cooling, but somehow it did not, it was not able to overwhelm the CO2 warming. it was merely able to cancel it out when it come to global surface temps.

while the deniers want to make a stop of AGW or a falsification of AGW out of that, in reality it shosw that AGW is true and happening. time to grow up and face the problem.

Even then it did not fully "cancel" warming, it just "flattened" the spiking increase a bit. Looking at the graph in the recent Hansen/Sato update there is still a general rise. I agree with their suspicion that it is most likely the increase in negative forcing from aerosols due to the asian amp up of coal burning that is most responsible for the levelling. I believe we were discussing this as a possibility far up-thread when we were talking about the other side-effects of CHina and India's massive uptick in coal power plant construction.

 

[bit_pattern]

The "standard" explanation is claiming the weather below is causing this :-
That takes a lot of energy Our aurora events take a huge amount of energy and it's been known for some time now this energy comes from the Sun in the form of CME's , Flares etc. Aurora can be successfully predicted from solar events. Similarly SSW's can also be predicted from solar events and their effects on our weather

So if it the sun wot dunnit then why is the stratosphere cooling? Wouldn't the warming be consistent through the entire atmosphere?

Unless you have a physical mechanism to describe why the stratosphere is cooling then your ideas are hocus-pocus.

 

[Haig]

So if it the sun wot dunnit then why is the stratosphere cooling? Wouldn't the warming be consistent through the entire atmosphere?

Unless you have a physical mechanism to describe why the stratosphere is cooling then your ideas are hocus-pocus.

Piers gives this answer to your question:

· Sudden stratospheric warmings forecast breakthrough
"There will be fluctuations in the severity of this weather but our confidence in this general forecast is increased by our new breakthrough in predicting major sudden warmings of the polar stratosphere, which in a contradictory way drive blasts of very cold air south.

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=512&c=5

Nothing new under the Sun

SOLAR NEWS
A Warning From History: Whenever Solar Radiation has Decreased Volcanic Activity has Increased

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A9r7LVrCMAElBx-.jpg:large

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I noticed Joe Bastardi had recently put the above chart (4,500 years of Global Temperatures) out as a Tweet. I have posted this chart before at CR and thought It was worth another display. This time I have highlighted the main message and also expanded the last couple of decades.

Piers Corbyn's take on this, is that.... Whenever Solar Radiation has Decreased Volcanic Activity has Increased

The original analysis or I should say observation stated in the RED BOX area...."Whenever Solar Radiation has Decreased and Volcanic Activity has Increased, Global Temperatures Suddenly Plummet, often within Weeks or Months."..the trouble with that statement is that it makes it look as if the Volcanic Activity on Earth Changes the level of Solar Radiation on the Sun!!

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/277810499247288320/photo/1



BBC-MetO opportunism on Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) could begin their terminal decline as scientifically credible institutions.
says Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of WeatherAction.

"The pathetically opportunist public 'revelations' by the BBC-MO of the importance of (polar) sudden stratospheric warmings in the advent of cold blasts after WeatherAction's explicit prediction (Jan 3) of such events to come; and their failure to acknowledge WeatherAction and associates of their work, shows they will stop at nothing to try to shore up their failed 'weather drives weather', warmist, approaches to medium and long range forecasting.

...

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http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=512&c=5

 

[bit_pattern]

Nothing new under the Sun

SOLAR NEWS
A Warning From History: Whenever Solar Radiation has Decreased Volcanic Activity has Increased

That doesn't even begin to address the question.

 

[Haig]

That doesn't even begin to address the question.

Check again

Late edit

 

[Pixel42]

Boris Johnson's old chum Piers Corbyn didn't do too well predicting the weather at last summer's olympics.

Back in early 2011 Haig was kind enough to share with us many of Corbyn's prognostications. I teased out 10 specific predictions and monitored them over the next 9 months. The final update is here:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=7578213#post7578213

That makes Corbyn's final score:

Predictions: 10

Hits: 2

Success rate: 20%

 

[DC]

Back in early 2011 Haig was kind enough to share with us many of Corbyn's prognostications. I teased out 10 specific predictions and monitored them over the next 9 months. The final update is here:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=7578213#post7578213

but it is said that Piers is so much more succesfull than the MET office