Moderated Global Warming Discussion

[CapelDodger]

Those are in short supply, are they not?

Did you know the world before the internet? When the range of punditry was limited to the pub and the dinner-table? What a pent-up flood has been released, for good or ill nobody will ever quite decide.

 

[Trakar]

...Free, for the most part, of political fears and approval costs, so China at least should be a perfect test-bed. If they don't take it up with any eagerness, when doing something about air-quality (which is to say, about coal) is a looming imperative, then it very likely has inherent problems.

"Free" from worker health, environmental oversight and economic viability concerns and constraints, may not be the appropriate, yet alone "perfect" test-bed.

 

[macdoc]

Given that the deniers are now reduced to a laughingstock even in most of the mainstream press - discussing where from here is a pleasant change instead of re-iterating nonsense bashing bit to protect the innocent reader.

I just hope Obama is as serious about coal elimination as he appeared first time around.

Canada is a write-off for at least a few years but Quebec and California have struck a deal on cap and trade.
http://www.mddep.gouv.qc.ca/changements/carbone/Systeme-plafonnement-droits-GES-en.htm

Effectively giving the finger to the dinosaur of the day feds.

I'm not fond of cap and trade - I prefer a carbon tax but hey whatever will reduce C02 output is useful.

Speaking of which I need to buy some air travel offsets and have not surveyed the state of that rather scam prone milieu.
I know there are decent certified projects out there but anyone got any leads.??

 

[macdoc]

Traker I don't think you give China enough credit. They did not "need" to introduce tough car emissions standards but they did.
The did not need to build the world's largest solar but they did and do not "need" to be developing 22 nukes but they are.

The biggest plus is they recognize the risk and have the political will to move forward on it.

Too many democratic states with the notable exception of Sweden and some others nearby are handcuffed by an archaic decision making process and NIMBYism written large.

China also intends to make money from green tech as the opportunity is there to steal a slice of the $7 trillion fossil fuel industry.

I find it hilarious that people whinge about "how would we pay for it all"...when they blithely drop $100 bills in the fuel tank once a week.

 

[CapelDodger]

"Free" from worker health, environmental oversight and economic viability concerns and constraints, may not be the appropriate, yet alone "perfect" test-bed.

From an objective perspective it is, given that public opinion and regulatory costs are often cited as the reason for nuclear's failure to flourish. I don't want to get into the subjective except to say how much I appreciate living without those conditions, and indeed without the conditons I was born into (in 1954).

We, the people, did that. Now there are people trying to unpick it, but they're failing. China is still the other side of the experience, but it's simply not sustainable. Let's hope control lies with pragmatists.

 

[macdoc]

Seems to - and when "we the people" get into thrall of the likes of the NRA what good is the "freedom"?.

any ways....dim news on the coal front

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that coal will catch up with oil as the world's leading energy source by 2022.

In a report, the Agency says that increased demand from India and China are fuelling the push.

Natural gas offers the best hope of reducing carbon emissions in the short term the report concludes.

It comes as the European Union acknowledged that it has been unable to fund a single project to capture and store CO2.

Economic and population growth in developing countries are spurring the drive for coal says the IEA,

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20770245

 

[CapelDodger]

Seems to - and when "we the people" get into thrall of the likes of the NRA what good is the "freedom"?.

That's not so much "we, the people" as "they, the politicians". Universal suffrage tends to turn democracy into a circus.

That said, progress was made on clean air and water, and of course CFC's, despite strong lobbying and no strong desire by the great and the good to do much about it. With clean air and water it became an imperative; with CFC's it wasn't that big a deal to ban them. The major differences with AGW are the scale of the changes necessary to address it, and the way it's never quite as imperative as, say, Pearl Harbour.

any ways....dim news on the coal front

Something I've already factored in, I'm afraid. When the imperative is to keep supply up with projected demand the tried and tested, cheap and dirty solution is favourite. In China that means coal goes in the five-year plan, or certainly this year and next. It also fits the World Bank's model so developing countries have a chance of donor funding - which is often what determines their transport and utility policies.

It was always going to be a train-wreck, I'm afraid. History suggests that out of this crisis will come something better - it's my fond hope it'll be a global society where the word "sustainable" cannot be turned into a political negative, without at least the benefits of unsustainability are fully explained and justified. I call this better world Agenda 22 as a homage to two extremes, one of blindness and the other of vision.

 

[macdoc]

Without a doubt it is certainly going to be "different" and well outside the Holocene norms likely even by mid-century so H Sapiens ain't ever seen this level of warm afaik.

Still we will cope....persistent pests that we are.

 

[CapelDodger]

Without a doubt it is certainly going to be "different" and well outside the Holocene norms likely even by mid-century so H Sapiens ain't ever seen this level of warm afaik.

Of course when things stabilise, that will be norm to which society conforms. How things were won't matter to those alive then (beyond my time, I've no doubt). Stability and an unexciting life will be more of an aspiration and less of a settle-for. That's this pundit's prediction anyway, and perhaps one day some history student will stumble across it .

They should know, up there in the future, that we weren't all stupid. And they should ask themselves how much difference they could have made in the same circumstances.

Still we will cope....persistent pests that we are.

I've never bought into the "end of industrial society" prediction. A world which can create Las Vegas will get through this, with some pretty serious geo-political shifts. An open Arctic Ocean places Canada and Russia in a central position rather than the more familiar role as periphery of everywhere important.

 

[Trakar]

Of course when things stabilise, that will be norm to which society conforms. How things were won't matter to those alive then (beyond my time, I've no doubt). Stability and an unexciting life will be more of an aspiration and less of a settle-for. That's this pundit's prediction anyway, and perhaps one day some history student will stumble across it .

They should know, up there in the future, that we weren't all stupid. And they should ask themselves how much difference they could have made in the same circumstances.

I've never bought into the "end of industrial society" prediction. A world which can create Las Vegas will get through this, with some pretty serious geo-political shifts. An open Arctic Ocean places Canada and Russia in a central position rather than the more familiar role as periphery of everywhere important.

sapiens sapiens? seriously?

 

[macdoc]

Reality intruding again on the shrinking contigent of deniers.....nother of their myths hits the skids.

West Antarctic Ice Sheet warming twice earlier estimate
Matt McGrath By Matt McGrath Environment correspondent, BBC News

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/64902000/png/_64902613_byrd_footprint.png
The data from Byrd Station shows rapid warming on the west Antarctic ice sheet

A new analysis of temperature records indicates that the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet is warming nearly twice as fast as previously thought.

US researchers say they found the first evidence of warming during the southern hemisphere's summer months.

They are worried that the increased melting of ice as a result of warmer temperatures could contribute to sea-level rise.

The study has been published in the journal Nature Geoscience.

The scientists compiled data from records kept at Byrd station, established by the US in the mid-1950s and located towards the centre of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS).

Previously scientists were unable to draw any conclusions from the Byrd data as the records were incomplete.

The new work used a computer model of the atmosphere and a numerical analysis method to fill in the missing observations.

The results indicate an increase of 2.4C in average annual temperature between 1958 and 2010.

"What we're seeing is one of the strongest warming signals on Earth," says Andrew Monaghan, a co-author and scientist at the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research.

"This is the first time we've been able to determine that there's warming going on during the summer season." he added.
Top to bottom

It might be natural to expect that summers even in Antarctica would be warmer than other times of the year. But the region is so cold, it is extremely rare for temperatures to get above freezing.
Continue reading the main story
“Start Quote

This place has very variable weather, some of it is influenced by human acts and some of it isn't ”

End Quote Prof David Bromwich Ohio State University

........

"What we saw after the breakup of Larsen was that the glaciers that were buttressed by the ice shelves sped up tremendously, by a factor of eight. That's a potential concern of the enhanced melt in west Antarctica if the warming trend we find in summer continues."

The authors say they are confident that the data from Byrd Station is representative of the region because the scientific outpost sits on a plateau and conditions are essentially uniform for a considerable distance.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20804192

 

[CapelDodger]

sapiens sapiens? seriously?

A bit cryptic, but I'll hazard an exegesis ...

It is my fond hope that human society will be improved by the experience of this crisis, just as it has been by crises of the past. In every "What on Earth were they thinking?" episode there are voices of reason, the more sapient simians, and by being proved right they get to set the general trend of the aftermath. Step-by-step to liberal democratic capitalism, which on the whole is the best we've had yet. Cornucopianism is, of course, the inevitable loss of reason which heralds the next crisis, but that opens the field for more advanced voices of reason.

After the crisis people become more conservative, and much more cynical. Which is, in the main, a good thing. It erodes the power of priests and snake-oil salesmen. The recent irruption of religion into global politics is a feature of the crisis, not of the aftermath. Religion is once again getting a chance to prove itself not to be allowed anywhere near power.

On the other side of this crisis (which was inevitable, of course; AGW is just some extra spice) sustainability, dependability and transparancy will be what people are looking for. Stability. Read Fred Pohl, it's all in there .

There'll be Hell to pay before now and then, and I very much doubt I'll witness it all.

 

[Puppycow]

Is the following a completely unworkable idea or a possible solution?

What if we put a system of mirrors up in orbit around earth to reflect part of the solar radiation before it reaches the Earth? I imagine we would only have to reflect a small percentage of it to restore balance to the Earth's energy budget.

However, it's not cheap to put anything in space and maybe the amount of mirrors required would be ridiculously expensive to launch into space?

 

[Acleron]

Is the following a completely unworkable idea or a possible solution?

What if we put a system of mirrors up in orbit around earth to reflect part of the solar radiation before it reaches the Earth? I imagine we would only have to reflect a small percentage of it to restore balance to the Earth's energy budget.

However, it's not cheap to put anything in space and maybe the amount of mirrors required would be ridiculously expensive to launch into space?

There is nothing technically impossible abut the idea. The major problem would be political, who would have control over them? The thought that somebody else could alter the conditions in your country will be an anathema to many.

 

[Puppycow]

There is nothing technically impossible abut the idea. The major problem would be political, who would have control over them? The thought that somebody else could alter the conditions in your country will be an anathema to many.

But global warming already is altering the conditions in other countries than the countries that are mainly causing it. I think the major problem would be who will pay for it. It would probably have to be a coalition of the wealthier countries with the capability of actually putting things into orbit.

Another related idea: could balloons be used to lift reflective nanoparticles up into the upper atmosphere and disperse them as a cheaper low tech alternative to rockets?

 

[macdoc]

Cloud ships make more sense.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/en...-rays-is-favourite-to-cut-global-warming.html

 

[aleCcowaN]

Is the following a completely unworkable idea or a possible solution?

What if we put a system of mirrors up in orbit around earth to reflect part of the solar radiation ...

... towards China and the United States until they get incinerated?

Yes, it's technically possible. Once the fumes dispel and their aerosols settle we'd get rid of half of yearly anthropogenic CO2 emissions and about 44% CO2 equivalent of all greenhouse gases.

That's about what the planet doesn't absorb, so the rest of us could continue emitting the same and the 400ppm barrier wouldn't be broken.

[Orbiting mirrors my santaness! That's like solving the problem of a morbid obese not by a complete treatment and fundamental changes but by performing liposuction in his skinny neighbours]

 

[DC]

Considering the lack of the worlds actions to reduce CO2 emissions and the longer this continues, the closer we will have to take a look at those geoengineering ideas like mirrors in space.

 

[carlosy]

And what about this?

ameg.me/index.php/our-blog

AMEG Strategic Plan

The purpose of this document is firstly to warn the world of the extreme and imminent danger of global famine and ensuing strife created by rapid Arctic warming and precipitous sea ice retreat, and secondly to provide a strategic plan for handling this situation.

The international community is totally unprepared for the speed of change in the Arctic, the dramatic effects on global climate and the dire repercussions on food production.

The tendency among scientists and the media has been to ignore or understate the seriousness of the situation in the Arctic. AMEG is using best available evidence and best available explanations for the processes at work. These processes include a number of vicious cycles which are growing in power exponentially, involving ocean, atmosphere, sea ice, snow, permafrost and methane. If these cycles are allowed to continue, the end result will be runaway global warming.

The situation is so urgent that, unless appropriate action is taken within a few months, the window of opportunity will be lost. Adaptation to the consequences will be impossible, as famine spreads inexorably to all countries.
...

Cooling the Arctic

Dealing with the underlying cause of the climate extremes turns out to be even more important than dealing with the consequences on food security, because the underlying cause is a process which is gaining momentum and could become unstoppable in 2013.

In effect, we are approaching a point of no return, after which it will be impossible to rescue the situation.

The speed of action is required because of the speed of sea ice retreat. All indications are that there will be a major collapse of sea ice next year, with a new record minimum. And September 2015 is likely to be virtually sea ice free.
...


A combination of three cooling techniques is proposed, to give flexibility in deployment and maximise the chances of success:

stratospheric aerosols to reflect sunlight;
cloud brightening to reflect more sunlight;
cloud removal to allow thermal radiation into space.

(bold by me)

So, they propose immediate geoengineering action in the arctic by cooling it.

How credible is this?

 

[DC]

And what about this?

ameg.me/index.php/our-blog


(bold by me)

So, they propose immediate geoengineering action in the arctic by cooling it.

How credible is this?

now THAT sound alarmist.
i do think it might be needed one day, but this sounds fishy to me.