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Moderated Global Warming Discussion

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Can anyone point me in the direction of some deconstructions of Steve McIntyre's crusade against Gergis et. al. (an Australian "hockey stick" reconstruction that was pulled from publication earlier this year after a discrepancy in the methodology was identified). McIntyre and his acolytes are claiming it as a scalp even though its been resubmitted for review
 
Can anyone point me in the direction of some deconstructions of Steve McIntyre's crusade against Gergis et. al. (an Australian "hockey stick" reconstruction that was pulled from publication earlier this year after a discrepancy in the methodology was identified). McIntyre and his acolytes are claiming it as a scalp even though its been resubmitted for review

Frankly, I just see it as more evidence of denial's terminal spiral. After all this time this is what justifies McIntyre's existence.

I recall varwoche pointing out quite some years ago how McIntyre and his special acolytes were already fixated on the Mann-Stick as being the lynchpin of ... something. The whole thing. You know, climate change and that.

There's a syndrome known on the battlefield, no doubt with a proper name, where a general overwhelmed by the way things are falling apart fixates on one tiny part of the battlefield, micro-managing some artillery battery or whatever, while officers needing orders are kept at bay. You see this in the denial movement. The general concerned will often fixate on some point he thought crucial before the event, in a safe place before all these terrible and confusing things happened, and you see this with McIntyre. He's stuck where he started, on time-series and reconstructions. Watts is stuck on his UHI. Monckton is a born tent-performer, he's off and away with the fairies now. What a strange visitation that was. Some things you just can't make up. Unless you count the Mule in Asimov's Foundation series, of course. Kinda close.

So there they are, thrashing around on hooks of their own making. Promoted by faithless fancy way above their natural due, their celebrity careers inevitably following the narrative of an ignited fart.
 
That's about it for the climate change debate then. Now we're just talking about the weather again. Welcome to the new normal. The banality of it all is quite striking.

Bout time - questions that arise are.

How to phase out coal as it appears to be Ace of Spades and easily replaced with natural gas in many areas.
Unprecedented number of US coal-fired power stations to be shut down in 2012


Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/036672_coal-fired_power_plants_shut_down_EPA.html#ixzz2ApqCGWOK
http://www.naturalnews.com/036672_coal-fired_power_plants_shut_down_EPA.html

Where is solar going now panels are dirt cheap.

How much wind is worthwhile.

Will nukes come back.

Should the planet plan to geo-engineer
 
Frankly, I just see it as more evidence of denial's terminal spiral. After all this time this is what justifies McIntyre's existence.

I recall varwoche pointing out quite some years ago how McIntyre and his special acolytes were already fixated on the Mann-Stick as being the lynchpin of ... something. The whole thing. You know, climate change and that.

There's a syndrome known on the battlefield, no doubt with a proper name, where a general overwhelmed by the way things are falling apart fixates on one tiny part of the battlefield, micro-managing some artillery battery or whatever, while officers needing orders are kept at bay. You see this in the denial movement. The general concerned will often fixate on some point he thought crucial before the event, in a safe place before all these terrible and confusing things happened, and you see this with McIntyre. He's stuck where he started, on time-series and reconstructions. Watts is stuck on his UHI. Monckton is a born tent-performer, he's off and away with the fairies now. What a strange visitation that was. Some things you just can't make up. Unless you count the Mule in Asimov's Foundation series, of course. Kinda close.

So there they are, thrashing around on hooks of their own making. Promoted by faithless fancy way above their natural due, their celebrity careers inevitably following the narrative of an ignited fart.

Yeah, I agree totally. I have a denier on another forum using it as a diversion to avoid real discussion. I'm thinking of the best way to approach the argument - either dignifying the unhinging by addressing it with a proper rebuttal or simply dismissing it as the conspiracy woo that it is and trying to push the discussion back to physical facts.
 
Yeah, I agree totally. I have a denier on another forum using it as a diversion to avoid real discussion. I'm thinking of the best way to approach the argument - either dignifying the unhinging by addressing it with a proper rebuttal or simply dismissing it as the conspiracy woo that it is and trying to push the discussion back to physical facts.

Of course there's the option of conceding their point, hypothetically, and asking what they take from it. If it's the common "so scientists can be wrong" you can get onto explaining how and why Science accounts for that. Then back to your point, hopefully. These people are easily baffled once you get the hang of it, which is why they get into the inevitable death-spiral around a candle of hope.

Many deniers still seem to believe that because they've somehow captured right-wing political parties across a wide swathe of the world they are somehow winning out. Against the weather. A dream of enormous antiquity, no doubt, but still a dream.
 
Bout time - questions that arise are.

How to phase out coal as it appears to be Ace of Spades and easily replaced with natural gas in many areas.

http://www.naturalnews.com/036672_coal-fired_power_plants_shut_down_EPA.html

Where is solar going now panels are dirt cheap.

How much wind is worthwhile.

Will nukes come back.

Should the planet plan to geo-engineer

Solar is just following the trajectory of the semiconductor industry: Massive overinvestment causes a glut and price crash, which pushes many businesses out, but which raises demand (as the price falls new markets open) and allows the survivors to pick up cheap second hand manufacturing equipment and causes a contraction in supply, raising prices, causing massive overinvestment...

Each cycle raises the usage overall, and makes the total market larger as new niches become available- just not large enough to sustain all the companies at the peak of oversupply.

Every week I'm getting notification of PV equipment auctions from what (in the UK at least are called receivers) on my work email.
 
Can anyone point me in the direction of some deconstructions of Steve McIntyre's crusade against Gergis et. al. (an Australian "hockey stick" reconstruction that was pulled from publication earlier this year after a discrepancy in the methodology was identified). McIntyre and his acolytes are claiming it as a scalp even though its been resubmitted for review

They were claiming it had been completely withdrawn.
 
at what cost?

every work-day he is not doing science is a "win" for those who aim to retard the advance of the science. defending the name a science in the courts makes him an actor. delays the revised edition of his book. scares the young wanting to focus on research away from climate research.

a sad day. (that knowing all of the above, he decided it best to act.)

Michael Mann is not the only person doing climate research.
 
Solar is just following the trajectory of the semiconductor industry: Massive overinvestment causes a glut and price crash, which pushes many businesses out, but which raises demand (as the price falls new markets open) and allows the survivors to pick up cheap second hand manufacturing equipment and causes a contraction in supply, raising prices, causing massive overinvestment...

It's a very recognisable trajectory, from the canal boom through railways right up to the dot-con boom of the 90's. This is how major economic change happens, messily, unguidedly, and without benefit of hindsight. Things shake themselves out to become a new economic platform for the future.
 
Yes and it's good news despite hardship for some investors and solar company owners.

Pave the planet as far as I'm concerned.

This financial meltdown that is still rolling on might present some opportunity to shift direction but I'm afraid the US gas and oil re-emergnce is no a great sign tho it might ( actually is ) getting rid of some coal plants.

The battle lines seem to be moving towards a new phase beyond denial and into fighting policies like Australian's carbon tax.

The US is s sad case as the fossil companies are now hiding their buying of elections through blind contributions going to fund the Repuglies.

I'm sure the same forces are work elsewhere. :(

Germany and Japan's rejection of nuclear is seriously bad news.
 
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I wouldn't exactly call it a "crusade" but the fact that McIntyre and company were able to find a fatal flaw within a few hours of its posting and this AFTER it had passed peer review I must confess I find a little shocking.

That being said, here is a link to the latest bit...I must beg your forgiveness for posting a link to a "denier" site but it is the fastest, easiest way to get you up to speed....

Below is a snip...




Michael Kottek writes in the comment section:


The results of my FOI request to the University of Melbourne can be seen here:

http://tinyurl.com/96ey5dt

I requested all correspondence between the authors and the journal regarding the paper. The referees reports were exempted as were documents relating to the resubmitted paper.

I also requested correspondence between the authors after the paper was accepted. Once again emails relating to the resubmitted paper were exempted, and personal material redacted.

I note that emails regarding the paper that were received by one author and not forwarded to the others would not have been covered by my request.

Despite the embarrassment of the withdrawn paper, the University is to be commended for their no nonsense approach to this request. As an alumunus, I am pleased that the response is far more sensible than the approach taken by the UEA and UVa.

Steve: Oct 28, 9 pm Eastern
Here is a more detailed commentary which raises questions about Karoly’s claim that they had “independently” discovered the screening error on June 5. [Note: times in the emails are in multiple time zones. In the analysis below, it is my understanding that in June 2012, relative to UTC, Melbourne time was +10, Switzerland +2, Eastern -4, CA blog time -5.]

As CA readers are aware, the issue of screening in Gergis et al 2012 was first raised in a CA post in a May 31 blog post, a discussion that directly quoted the following paragraph of Gergis et al:


Our temperature proxy network was drawn from a broader Australasian domain (90E–140W, 10N–80S) containing 62 monthly–annually resolved climate proxies from approximately 50 sites (see details provided in Neukom and Gergis, 2011)… Only records that were significantly (p<0.05) correlated with the detrended instrumental target over the 1921–1990 period were selected for analysis. This process identified 27 temperature-sensitive predictors for the SONDJF warm season (Figure 1 and Table 1) henceforth referred to as R27.

The CA discussion, and, in particular, the Name and Shame blog post, was referred to on numerous occasions in the internal emails among Gergis, Neukom and others over the next few days, commencing almost immediately with an email from Gergis to Neukom and other coauthors we follows:


We should all be aware that this is unfolding: http://climateaudit.org/2012/05/31/myles-allen-calls-for-name-and-shame

In my original post, I had presumed that Gergis et al had used correlation screening against trending series (which I termed the “Screening Fallacy”), a topic discussed on a number of occasions at critical climate blogs (see references in original post.) Against this, Jim Bouldin and others argued that Gergis et al had employed detrending screening, thereby avoiding the CA criticism. The CA discussion quickly led to Jean S checking the correlations of the available series. On June 5 (blogtime 16:42; 07:42 June 6 in Melbourne), Jean S reported in CA comments here that Gergis’ claim by Gergis to have used detrended correlations was false (asking me and others to check). Jean S’ comment almost immediately (within an hour) attracted online notice from Hu McCulloch (blog 17:39) and Kenneth Fritsch (blog 18:19).

About two hours after Jean S’ post – by now nearly 2 am in Switzerland (June 6 09:46 Melbourne; 01:46 Switzerland; blog 18:46 June 5), Neukom urgently notified his Australian associates of the same problem that Jean S had reported at CA a couple of hours earlier. Neukom had a skype discussion with Gergis, followed up by an email (2Gergis, page 77) to Gergis, Karoly and others. Neukom noted that the mistake was related to the proxy screening (then under discussion at Climate Audit) and thus a “delicate issue”:


As just discussed with joelle on skype, I found a mistake in our paper in journal of climate today. It is related to the proxy screening, so it is a delicate issue. In the paper we write that we do the correlation analysis for the screening based on detrended (instrumental and proxy) data, but in reality we did not use detrended data.

Meanwhile at CA (blog time June 5 20:11; Melbourne 11:11), CA reader HaroldW reported that he had confirmed Jean S’ results. I checked in at CA with a question to Jean S (blog time 20:49 June 5; Melbourne 11:49)."



http://climateaudit.org/2012/10/28/gergis-et-al-correspondence/




Can anyone point me in the direction of some deconstructions of Steve McIntyre's crusade against Gergis et. al. (an Australian "hockey stick" reconstruction that was pulled from publication earlier this year after a discrepancy in the methodology was identified). McIntyre and his acolytes are claiming it as a scalp even though its been resubmitted for review
 
I wouldn't exactly call it a "crusade" but the fact that McIntyre and company were able to find a fatal flaw within a few hours of its posting and this AFTER it had passed peer review I must confess I find a little shocking.

That being said, here is a link to the latest bit...I must beg your forgiveness for posting a link to a "denier" site but it is the fastest, easiest way to get you up to speed....

Below is a snip...
"]

LOL thanks, that's ample material for the deconstruction to begin! Should provoke an impressive set of rebuttals, just what I'm after. Have at it, learned folk of JREF :D
 
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LOL thanks, that's ample material for the deconstruction to begin! Should provoke an impressive set of rebuttals, just what I'm after. Have at it, learned folk of JREF :D

Is it that what you were looking for? :confused:

Without previous information I only see there that Westwall is coming back not to answer the dozens of points he previously left in this thread, but to drop a post with two different parts: An introduction well carved in the way of a extremely adjectivally rich "praise" of Indiana Jones overcoming the circumstances, and later a long quotation of a post which includes quotations itself -what Westwall didn't bother in making clear, so it all ends up looking obfuscated-. So, I wonder why anyone should follow a partial account.

Instead, Westwall, you should have said "this is what Jean S. posted in climate audit about the matter ... I have this information also... my conclusion is: (and here insert your opinions about "fatal errors" found within "hours" and of the you placed there)". Of course, that way you would face immediately a lot of critics and you would be asked to provide evidence. It's noted your effort to sell a conclusion while avoiding or obfuscating its discussion.

Totally apart, bitpattern, is it September to February the warm season in that part of Australasia as the quote contains? I would imagine October to March or even November to April to be a better period, if it should be any half year. A warm hemispheral season which includes the polar sea ice maximum about 20 days after "the warm" started sounds strange, and potentially it is masking the trend which is not "warmer" but "warmer and later". Who is this Gergis person?
 
As much as I loathe Piers Moron, he had Pat Michaels on his show on CNN tonight and kicked his backside. Michaels face looked like it could have curdled milk. :)
 
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