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Moderated Global Warming Discussion

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...innane anedote snipped...
Today, if a biologist wants to study _X_, it can't hurt to request funds to study "How global warming will affect _X_". That's what that Abram 2003 paper looks like to me.
I can see from your stance of ignorance every scientific paper in existence could look like a conspiracy by the authors to get funding :rolleyes:.

You remain ignorant of Coral Reef Death During the 1997 Indian Ocean Dipole Linked to Indonesian Wildfires
There is no mention of global warming in the abstract.

Their "co-conspirators" (Aronson, et al) The 1998 bleaching event and its aftermath on a coral reef in Belize, do mention global warming in their abstact:
Widespread thermal anomalies in 1997–1998, due primarily to regional effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and possibly augmented by global warming, caused severe coral bleaching worldwide.
...
If coral populations are depressed on a long-term basis, the vertical accretion of skeletal carbonates at Channel Cay will slow or cease over the coming decades, a time during which global-warming scenarios predict accelerated sea-level rise.
No mention of getting funding because they mentioned global warning :jaw-dropp!
 
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...No mention of foraminifera tests or shells where there is calcium carbonate.
A more charitable way to say it is that you are mostly wrong:
  • No parts of foraminifera make up chalk (the mineral) but ...
  • Bits of foraminifera, bivalves and ostracods are included within chalk as fossils.
Forams are a component of chalk. I accept (as our anonymous marine biologist claims) they are not the major component of chalk. No marine plankton make shells of titanium; they are CACO3. So chalk is mostly shells of phytoplankton, not forams. BFD. For our purposes, my answer to the self-described biologist's question: "What happens to dissolved CO2?" my answer "forams incorporate it into their shells and it precipitates as chalk" is correct to whatever degree oceanic plankton deposit it to the sedimentary sink. Okay, substitute "forams and other plankton". The point remains. And our resident marine biologist is wrong to call my answer "wrong" since CO2 does leave solution into the sedimentary sink and forams do contribute to this. Further, he misleads when he claims that this process no longer occurs.
Here.
Coccolith shells form a matrix in which other calcium components are often trapped and subsequently embedded into the chalk (Melville 1982). The coccoliths in Southern England “are present in vast numbers and in all stages of disintegration down to individual component crystals” (Chatwin 1960). In this area many other calcium carbonate remains are found, including, “calcispheres (Oligostegina), formanifera, and fragmentary debris of many larger invertebrates (especially the bivalve Inoceramus)” (Melville 1982).

The chalk in Southern England is considered a calcareous ooze, which is an “ooze composed mostly of the hard remains of organisms containing calcium carbonate” (Garrison 2002).
 
Yes, I've been learning for a long time, and keep doing it everyday. That's why I was able to explain to you the misconceptions you had on those subjects. I suspect you still hold on to those same misconceptions, but I'm sure some lurkers appreciated my efforts.
True, you have not convinced me that forams and other plankton have switched from CaCO3 to titanium.
 
I don't know.


You don't know. Yet you seemed rather adamant in arguing against carbon dioxide having anything to do with earlier.

Let's follow up your 'I don't know' with another question: What is the scientific opinion on the role played by carbon dioxide in warming Venus' surface temperature?
 
You could cite Bohr (1921) and look extremely ignorant. Bohr did not write on coral blanching or even climate science :eye-poppi .
Duh! That was my point. A cite looks impressive until you actually look into it. Bohr is a famous name and the date (1921) should have clued people into two hints: it couldn't have been about climate and that was around the time of the development of quantum theory. I agree it's "extremely ignorant" to miss those hints.
 
A friend of mine was a History PhD student who studied Central Asia. He once said to me that many Soviet historians did useful work. All you had to do to benefit from their research was to skip the first page ("Guided by the principles of Marxism/Leninism we investigate blah, blah, etc) and last page ("We see the relatiion exposed by our research confirms the predictions so brilliantly elucidated by Marx and Lenin blah, blah, blah"). In between, there was real research. Today, if a biologist wants to study _X_, it can't hurt to request funds to study "How global warming will affect _X_". That's what that Abram 2003 paper looks like to me.

I won't resort to your low technique of copying and clipping the words of others as if they were yours, like you use to do and did recently in #6394 among dozens of other instances. I can write my own replies.

That been said, it is interesting that you bring to the discussion the "conspiracy" behind all this. Can you elaborate further on that? We want to know what do you think and know exactly about this, and what's your position on that, provided we asked you that before and you never really answered.

Can you be clear and straightforward for a moment?
 
True, you have not convinced me that forams and other plankton have switched from CaCO3 to titanium.

That is such a stupid thing to try to convince anyone of... no doubt you can link to the post where I tried to do such a doltish thing. Unless you're lying, of course.

While you're looking, you can review the posts I did write, and read my explanations on why your answer was wrong.

Because despite your apparent belief to the contrary, I didn't just assert that you were wrong, I explained why in quite some detail.
 
Okay, substitute "forams and other plankton". .

So Malcolm, if I go back in this thread and I look for a data on the original statement, how long ago was it?
How many posts did you make disagreeing with other posters on this point before you made this correction?

So your volume of misinformation, ridicule and wrong headedness ratio to your retraction here, what is it going to be?
 
I accept (as our anonymous marine biologist claims) ...

Again with the "anonymity" theme. You do realise that's an ad hominem approach? I understand the purpose of it : you insulate your worldview (and self-image) from the discomforting reality which might be presented to you.

Anonymity in the source of secret or restricted information is naturally cause for concern, but what Megalodon is telling you is not secret and can easily be checked. Similarly the information and arguments presented to you at SkS can be checked and are open to refutation by a better argument or from alternative sources. The many links they present can be followed and an attempt made to understand them.

Anthony Watts makes a big issue about online anonymity but that doesn't mean it's of any importance. It serves the same purpose for him, allowing him to turn away from what's upsetting his worldview by so obviously not conforming to it. You are, I believe, doing exactly the same thing.
 
That been said, it is interesting that you bring to the discussion the "conspiracy" behind all this. Can you elaborate further on that?

Not without compromising the anonymity of his sources, which would put their careers - nay, their very lives - at risk.

I think what Malcom Kirkpatrick really means is that any science which fails to conform with his worldview appears to him to be written for the purpose of attracting funds for what some deniers describe as "pro-AGW research". Any alternative belief would mean questioning, and even revising, his worldview - a prospect you and I relish, but most people find terrifying.
 
Again with the "anonymity" theme. You do realise that's an ad hominem approach? I understand the purpose of it : you insulate your worldview (and self-image) from the discomforting reality which might be presented to you.

Anonymity in the source of secret or restricted information is naturally cause for concern, but what Megalodon is telling you is not secret and can easily be checked. Similarly the information and arguments presented to you at SkS can be checked and are open to refutation by a better argument or from alternative sources. The many links they present can be followed and an attempt made to understand them.

Anthony Watts makes a big issue about online anonymity but that doesn't mean it's of any importance. It serves the same purpose for him, allowing him to turn away from what's upsetting his worldview by so obviously not conforming to it. You are, I believe, doing exactly the same thing.

It is an approach by many with bizarre belief systems. They are unwilling to address the arguments, which is really all that matters.
 
Not without compromising the anonymity of his sources, which would put their careers - nay, their very lives - at risk.

I think what Malcom Kirkpatrick really means is that any science which fails to conform with his worldview appears to him to be written for the purpose of attracting funds for what some deniers describe as "pro-AGW research". Any alternative belief would mean questioning, and even revising, his worldview - a prospect you and I relish, but most people find terrifying.

The whole conspiracy theory about funding for "pro AGW" research is pretty odd. There is plenty of evidence that AGW denial has been funded by industry bodies.

If one then considers the possibility that a cabal of governments all are funding something that they think to be specious then it is even less easy to understand than most other conspiracy theories.

Governments would love AGW to not be a problem as then future funding and infrastructure decisions would be far simpler. For a moment, forget the West, and remember that even China, whilst industrialising rapidly with conventional thermal power generation, is also installing a lot of renewable energy capacity. The Chinese government certainly has access to its own scientists.

Any scientist who could come up with convincing evidence that AGW was not a problem would have their career made. People really make their name in science by changing the intellectual paradigm.

Unfortunately there is a lot of evidence that AGW is a problem, so scientists are not going to find non-existent evidence for a lack of a problem.
 
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The whole conspiracy theory about funding for "pro AGW" research is pretty odd. There is plenty of evidence that AGW denial has been funded by industry bodies.

AGW denial isn't research, of course, it's either propaganda or the sort of "motivated thinking" we see in Malcolm Kirkpatrick and Furcifer. The very idea that research can be pro- or anti- anything is distinctly odd : research reveals what it reveals. Imagine the response to a grant application which contains "This research will find that [fill in subject here] is real/unreal". I doubt even Muller was so blatant when he blagged funding for BEST from the Koch Foundation.

If one then considers the possibility that a cabal of governments all are funding something that they think to be specious then it is even less easy to understand than most other conspiracy theories.
Agenda 21. I mean, WTF?!?

Governments would love AGW to not be a problem as then future funding and infrastructure decisions would be far simpler.
It's not as if politicians don't have enough to worry about, what with the economy, diplomacy, public opinion (which always has its limits) and the ever present threat of war. That's why the first response was to form a committee (the IPCC) to produce a report in the hope it would all go away in the meantime, and subsequent responses have been to call for yet more reports at ever longer intervals. What passes for action has involved tinkering at the edges and setting targets for the safely distant future.

To the anti-gumment conspiracy theorist, of course, there's no end to politicians' desire for extra workload and complexity in their lives.

For a moment, forget the West, and remember that even China, whilst industrialising rapidly with conventional thermal power generation, is also installing a lot of renewable energy capacity. The Chinese government certainly has access to its own scientists.
Indeed. The Soviet Union's complicity in the Moon-Landing hoax is equally tricky to explain. Hence the need for conspiracies to be ever-expanding, and Agenda 21.

Any scientist who could come up with convincing evidence that AGW was not a problem would have their career made. People really make their name in science by changing the intellectual paradigm.
Yup, but they can make their names in the wider world by presenting deeply unconvincing evidence, as is the case with Linzen, Spencer, Christie, Soon and a few other scientists we'd never have heard of without their opposition to AGW in principle.

Unfortunately there is a lot of evidence that AGW is a problem, so scientists are not going to find non-existent evidence for a lack of a problem.
You can't buck the laws of physics for long.

Conspiracies do exist, of course (the aforementioned funding of anti-AGW propaganda through right-wing drunk-tanks being an example) but they either succeed, fail, or are exposed in the short-term -certainly less than the half-century that the AGW Conspiracy has allegedly been developing. And there are honest scientists we'd never have heard of if the propagandists hadn't promoted them as prime agents in said conspiracy. Al Gore would be vaguely remembered as the guy who couldn't beat a chimp in a run for US President. I just thought I'd make those points before Malcolm Kirkpatrick does ;). He'll have to be a bit more inventive if he's going to respond at all.
 
Malcolm, I am trying not to be rude, but do you see a disconnect between you still struggling to understand what insulation is and your arguing about whether the surface of Venus is significantly hotter because of the greenhouse effect? Why do you think your views on that should carry any weight, given your proclaimed lack of expertise?
They shouldn't. But neither should the claims of expertise be believed from people who don't have any idea where chalk comes from, or who misrepresent their expertise about ocean CO2 sinks.
Why do you think people don't know where chalk comes from?

BTW, the whole joke about titanium thing, only you have made that reference, so it is looking a bit lame in my opinion. It barely makes a strawman.

Back to the greenhouse effect and Venus: You wanted the maths - people gave you the simple equations for black body radiation, you wanted a simple explanation, people have given you that.

It is also intuitively simple - a lot of science isn't but in this case it is - if you let the same amount of energy in (per uint time), but reduce the flow of energy leaving for a particular temperature, then the temperature will rise until the energy flow out again equals the energy flow in.

I am afraid that whilst google is a brilliant resource, you do need a certain level of education to interpret what you find with it.
"I'm trying not to be rude" but aren't you here admitting to being a liar?
Moderators accepted that already, right?

Er, no...

I am trying not to be rude. Given your sometimes overly aggressive posting style, and scattergun approach to answering questions, this is sometimes difficult.

I inferred from your posts that you were looking up a lot of stuff using a search engine - (I'd recommend google for this BTW). I was responding to such an inference to point out that you do need a certain level of education to understand some of the links. Your posts suggest that, through no fault of your own, you lack a sufficient background in physics or chemistry, so would need a lot of work to understand some of the implications of what you and others have posted.

I believe that I am fairly realistic about my own abilities*, and am far from an expert in global warming - however I am scientifically literate, and my colleagues tend to rate my abilities as an engineer cum device physicist. Because of that, I know whether I understand a scientific paper when I read it, and I know that I can and do read scientific papers.

*I have more expertise than most posters here on semiconductor physics, and there is a possibility, though not certainty that I know more about the device physics, design and manufacture of power transistors than any other posters at JREF.
 
Abram 2003 supports "no signs of bleaching dating back many thousands of years..."

Duh! That was my point. A cite looks impressive until you actually look into it.
Duh! Your point was wrong because the citation was impressively supportive of the claim :eye-poppi !

Your point indicates that you are unable to understand the Abram et. al. abstract.
Your point indicates that you are unable to understand the Skeptical Science claim and that the abstract supports it.
Your point indicates that you are arguing from a stance of ignorance (big surprise there :rolleyes:).

Quote mining the Skeptical Science claim is really bad.

One more time: They claimed "no evidence of coral bleaching until recent decades" in the context of mass coral bleaching.
How global warming is driving mass coral bleaching
Looking only at bleaching though, we find that the incidence of mass coral bleaching increases dramatically in the last few decades. Despite modern records being biased by better monitoring and reporting in recent times, there seem to be little evidence of mass coral bleaching further back in time when examining long-lived coral communities. Studies from around the world show no signs of bleaching dating back many thousands of years, until recent decades (Abram 2003), (Aronson 2003). In the Caribbean there are no signs of previous mass bleaching dating back 220,000 years (Pandolfini & Jackson 2006)
(my emphasis added)


And what does Abram et. al. 2003 say:
(Abram, et al) Coral Reef Death During the 1997 Indian Ocean Dipole Linked to Indonesian Wildfires
"Sea surface temperature reconstructions show that although some past upwelling events have been stronger, there were no analogous episodes of coral mortality during the past 7000 years, indicating that the 1997 red tide was highly unusual."
 
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Forams are a component of chalk.
Forams are a component of chalk just like fossils are a component of rock.
It is wrong though to say that rocks are formed from dinosaurs :eye-poppi.

Your claim that chalk is formed from forams is wrong. Forams are a trace contaminant of chalk. If forams did not exist, chalk would still exist.

No marine plankton make shells of titanium; they are CACO3.
Well Duh :jaw-dropp !
Likewise mammal bones are not made of uranium!

my answer "forams incorporate it into their shells and it precipitates as chalk" is correct to whatever degree oceanic plankton deposit it to the sedimentary sink.
So you are still mostly wrong! It depends on the chalk but you are at least 80% wrong: Natural chalk is composed primarily of calcite skeletal particles of microorganisms: the calcareous algae Coccolithophoridae (70–90 percent) and the rhizopods Foraminifera (1–20 percent).
 
What do you think will happen to Foraminifera due to global warning

Still unanswered, Malcolm Kirkpatrick:
Originally Posted by Reality Check
Malcolm Kirkpatrick: Species of Foraminifera could not adapt to temperature changes that took thousands of years.
What do you think will happen to Foraminifera when similar temperature changes take place over a couple of centuries or even decades?
Revised question from 10th September 2012

(originally What do you think will happen to Foraminifera when CO2 changes over decades?)
28 days and counting.
 
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