Moderated Global Warming Discussion

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You're trying to explain weather in terms of climate and climate change. :rolleyes:\
...snipped repetition of unsupported assertions...
You are the one claiming that the WEATHER IS CLIMATE (AND LOCAL!) by asserting that the heat waves in the USA are caused by deforestation and urbanization.
Climate science says that you are wrong:
The heat waves, flooding in England, etc. are data points that when included in long term trends may support the predicted more extreme weather events from global warming.
 
My denier brother claims to remember summers as hot as we have now, and they weren't so bad, really... despite the fact that we're breaking records right and left.

That's because in terms of the human experience "record highs" are meaningless.
To explain, perhaps he recalls "The Summer of 85' when there were 5 consecutive days where the mercury topped 103F.
This year of "record highs" saw the mercury top 103.5F for 5 consecutive days.
Yes, it's a "record" but the 0.5 extra degrees is utterly meaningless to the human experience. A 0.5% change in temperature is impossible for us to notice. To him it's just as hot this year as it was in 85'.
If he happened to have a job working outdoors in 1985, and now works indoors there's a very good chance he remembers the Summers being much hotter "back in the day".
Or maybe he's just a "denier". That's another explanation I guess. :rolleyes:
 
what is for you a typical forest? and what's the albedo of that?

just to remember Furcifer on this question i asked himm, which he forgot to answer.

can you do that now pls?
 
lol, yes steering a climate science thread to climate science and not weather. Shame on me :D

By "something you're more comfortable" with I refer to stuff you just make up", of course, not climate science.

You're desperately trying to extend climate changes to include changes in the weather and the fact is climate is not weather. The changes to albedo due to urbanization and deforestation are much more suited to explaining these extreme weather events than is climate change.

Stuff like that, for instance.

Climate is intimately connected with weather because it is the envelope within which weather happens. Change the climate and weather changes on the average. In a warmer world there will be more droughts, deluges and wildfires - and in this warmer world that's exactly what we're seeing. Weather which was extreme in one climate may be more likely in another. Some weather which is impossible in one climate is possible in another.

Of course over the years, the continuous change in weather due to changes in albedo get lumped in under the monikur of climate change. The scientists are quick to point out however that they aren't entirely sure what amount of warming is due to emissions and what is due to change in albedo.

Indeed they do; what you don't point out is that the uncertainty is trivial in comparison to the actual warming. It is very well known that directly anthropogenic albedo change (that is, AAC which is not mediated by AGW) cannot explain the climate change we are experiencing. Nor was climate change predicted to occur by that mechanism before the event based on well-understood physics.

Your albedo fantasy really doesn't survive scrutiny.

That doesn't stop the alarmists though. They'll pick a nice steep slope for some truncated graph, point to some heatwave in Arizona and call for outrageous tax they believe will somehow remedy the problem. lolz.

Ah, the tax. That's what this is about.

The environment may have "suffered" over the last 150 years due to increased emissions, but people haven't.

Yes they have. Pollution shortens lives and blights what life there is.

The standard of living has gone up, so have longevity and so has food production. The alarmists will continue to point out the few farmers who have lost income from climate change, the few who have died in heatwaves and a few bad crops. The fact is on a whole we're all doing better from a degree increase in average temperature over that time.

You attribute all that improvement to a small change in climate yet cannot accept that any equivalent damage might be caused by AGW.

Standards of living and food production have improved over the last century and a half for a complex of reasons (none of them climate change), not least of which is science. Science now tells us (and has been for some time now) that AGW will make things worse rather than better.

Face it, any way you slice it, this is the cost of doing business. :)

You seem to be OK with a cost but not with a tax. A cost which you probably don't expect to be pay yourself.

One reason for the increased food-supply since the mid-19thCE was the agricultural development of the US Mid-West and South-West, which is not going to remain tenable for much longer. Another reason is Australia, which is also not doing so well. Then there's the Ukraine and Argentina, which are also under stress. Rice harvests have suffered from extreme weather in recent years, which is a cost to a lot of people who aren't you. British harvest are not looking at all promising this year.

Food prices are rising, which does represent a cost to you, but I expect food is a small part of your normal expenditure. For many people food is a major expenditure so the relative deprivation is greater, but hey, they're not you. That's the cost of you doing business as usual for your own benefit.

I'm not making any judgements, just pointing out some facts. I'd be the last person to moralise, sitting comfortably in front of my laptop burning up energy to no constructive purpose.
 
just to remember Furcifer on this question i asked himm, which he forgot to answer.

can you do that now pls?

I already did. If you're having trouble understanding albedo I suggest you Google it. This discussion presumes you're familiar with it already.
 
US record heatwave leaves dozens dead

At least 42 people have died in a heatwave that has brought soaring temperatures to a dozen US states from the Midwest to the East Coast.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-18758667


It's amazing how some people think that AGW will be beneficial.

Before anyone mistakes this, I want to emphasize that your point is about the damage the heat wave can do not that the heatwave necessarily proves global warming.

The 2010 Russian heat wave ultimately did turn out to have a very high probably of being related to global warming. Without global warming it was calculated to be a 500-1000 year event but with global warming it's something that could be expected every few decades. The current US heatwave may turn out to be similarly unlikely in the absence of global warming but that will be determined by statistical analysis over the next year or two.

That said, both of them show the damage an increase in extreme weather events in a warming world can cause, just as you suggest.
 
Well, while I was jerking around about the iron in our blood that allows us to inspire oxygen from the air,...I can see your comments value.

If I want to say something I'll hang it on anything :).

It is rather like a nostalgia effect where an older generation might remember fondly their youth when they bought gas cheaply and wasted it on whims, til intrusive government regulations ruined all their fun. When the facts are that the excessive usage and government subsidies and corporate welfare underwriting that created the situation of a failed market damaged our overall economy through encouraging unsustainable usage and propped up reliance upon sources of energy that were broadly damaging to our nation and planetary environment.

Things have changed for the worse, somebody must be to blame, and it cannot be them - even inadvertently. Bankers get a lot of the blame, quite rightly, but really don't give a damn. Politicians get blamed, then people vote for the same suit and haircut with a slightly different face. They blame a god and gay marriage. Anything but change tack.

Nostalgia often depends upon the focus on carefree pleasures sans the consequences that they disconnected from those thoughtless remembrances of "good times."

For boomers such as me they were good times. Summer was summer, winter was winter, you knew where you stood. Every now and then there was a remarkable weather-event. Nowadays they're in every news-cycle (not even Fox can ignore them, the pictures are just too compelling). Then youngsters today tell you (and your parents) that it's always been this way.

"Climate has always changed", the youngsters say (it always has for them, after all), and only now are people noticing. Old people in olden days were really stupid :rolleyes:. "Change is the essence of life" they say, but heaven forbid they be obliged to change anything they're doing. "New records happen all the time", they say, because this has been their experience of life. Nobody under 40 hasn't grown up in a world that isn't warming.

I cut my debating teeth on the god-question and Cold War politics, not climate change. This is the new normal :).
 
I already did. If you're having trouble understanding albedo I suggest you Google it. This discussion presumes you're familiar with it already.

no you did not. why do you claim that? i ask you what is the usual forest according to you and what is its albedo.
 
Yeah i know that :) i also liked Potholer's Monkton Bunkum videos.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbW-aHvjOgM

or Abrahams video's

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjhNVSZmLF4

but i was wondering if there is a specific debunking of this video.

I don't think anybody's bothering anymore. Monckton and Glen Beck; more people will search on that for comic potential than for any insight to the happening world.

This is the state of denial now. When Monckton became a star it was clearly over its best years, and it's worth remembering that it was the Heatland Institute which he levered himself up on. He was like a shark amongst minnows in there, and the kiss of death. From Manhattan to Chicago, the trend was rapid and inexorable. Now Monckton's performing at 500-seat auditoria in front of heat-stressed well-armed frontier folk. It may not end well for Monckton. From a comic-potential perspective it may be priceless.
 
Idiscussion presumes you're familiar with it already.
Obviously you are not familiar with deforestation and its effect on albedo.
Or maybe the use of Google :eye-poppi.
Deforestation increases albedo and decreases temperatures.
Deforestation
The Albedo Effect is the proportion of sunlight reflected back into space. Being white, snow and ice are highly reflective with an albedo of 85-90%. Croplands have an albedo of 12-20%. At the other end of the scale, evergreen tropical rainforests have an albedo of 7-15%. Clearly, a change of land use from forest to cropland alters the amount of sunlight reflected from the Earth and this is why albedo is a fundamental factor in climate control, resulting in changes of airflow and precipitation (Myers, 1984: 282).

CLIMATIC ROLE OF FORESTS
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica]
However, rainforests also have a significant effect on global weather. Rainforests, like all forms of vegetation, affect the "surface albedo" or reflectivity of a surface by absorbing more heat than bare soil. Norman Myers (1997) explains,
  • Much of the energy that converts surface moisture into water vapor comes from the sun's radiational heating of the land surface. The energy thus depends on surface albedo, or relevant degree of reflectant "shininess" of the land surface (Gash and Shuttleworth 1992). In turn, the albedo depends on the vegetation, which absorbs more heat than does bare soil. Over thick vegetation, vigorous thermal currents take moisture (provided by the same plant cover) up into the atmosphere, where it condenses as rain. Because of its influence on convection patterns and wind currents, and hence on rainfall regimes, the albedo effect constitutes a basic factor in controlling climate.


Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation

Climatic Impact of Global-Scale Deforestation: Radiative versus Nonradiative Processes
A fully coupled land–ocean–atmosphere GCM is used to explore the biogeophysical impact of large-scale deforestation on surface climate. By analyzing the model sensitivity to global-scale replacement of forests by grassland, it is shown that the surface albedo increase owing to deforestation has a cooling effect of −1.36 K globally. On the other hand, forest removal decreases evapotranspiration efficiency and decreases surface roughness, both leading to a global surface warming of 0.24 and 0.29 K, respectively.

[/FONT]
 
Before anyone mistakes this, I want to emphasize that your point is about the damage the heat wave can do not that the heatwave necessarily proves global warming.

Correct

show the damage an increase in extreme weather events a warming world can cause, just as you suggest.

Yup

More http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-18770815

'The last year in the continental US has been the country's hottest since modern record-keeping began in 1895, say government scientists.'

"The previous hottest year was the 12-month period that ended in May 2012."

"Jake Crouch, a scientist at the National Climatic Data Center, told Reuters news agency: "It's hard to pinpoint climate change as the driving factor, but it appears that it is playing a role."

"What's going on for 2012 is exactly what we would expect from climate change."
 
Before anyone mistakes this, I want to emphasize that your point is about the damage the heat wave can do not that the heatwave necessarily proves global warming.

The 2010 Russian heat wave ultimately did turn out to have a very high probably of being related to global warming. Without global warming it was calculated to be a 500-1000 year event but with global warming it's something that could be expected every few decades. The current US heatwave may turn out to be similarly unlikely in the absence of global warming but that will be determined by statistical analysis over the next year or two.

That said, both of them show the damage an increase in extreme weather events in a warming world can cause, just as you suggest.

However, we have a pattern of heat-related weather problems developing.
 
no you did not. why do you claim that? i ask you what is the usual forest according to you and what is its albedo.

Because I've already explained this. When we're talking about albedo and the weather, or climate for that matter, we're talking about the results of the change, including changes in frequency of absorbed and reflected light, changes in insulation, changes in heat capacity etc.

It's not as simple as you think it is. You obviously just think it's about the change in reflectivity.

If it were that simple, we could cut down the forests, with fairly low reflectivity and replace them with deserts, with some of the highest reflectivity indexes on the planet next to snow.

Problem solved right? Cover the planet in desert, increase albedo, cool the planet. Problem solved :rolleyes:
 
after a long absence I see Furcifer still does not understand why small average change result in greatly increased risk of extremes.

We'll let a pro enlighten him

Extremely hot


Filed under:
— stefan @ 26 March 2012
By Stefan Rahmstorf and Dim Coumou
One claim frequently heard regarding extreme heat waves goes something like this: ”Since this heat wave broke the previous record by 5 °C, global warming can’t have much to do with it since that has been only 1 °C over the 20th century”. Here we explain why we find this logic doubly flawed.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/03/extremely-hot/

http://www.realclimate.org/images//ipcc-extremes1.jpg




snip

For illustration, let’s take the most simple case of a normal distribution that is shifted towards the warm end by a given amount – say one standard deviation. Then, a moderately extreme temperature that is 2 standard deviations above the mean becomes 4.5 times more likely (see graph below). But a seriously extreme temperature, that is 5 standard deviations above the mean, becomes 90 times more likely! Thus: the same amount of global warming boosts the probability of really extreme events, like the recent US heat wave, far more than it boosts more moderate events.
 
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Because I've already explained this. When we're talking about albedo and the weather, or climate for that matter, we're talking about the results of the change, including changes in frequency of absorbed and reflected light, changes in insulation, changes in heat capacity etc.

It's not as simple as you think it is. You obviously just think it's about the change in reflectivity.

If it were that simple, we could cut down the forests, with fairly low reflectivity and replace them with deserts, with some of the highest reflectivity indexes on the planet next to snow.

Problem solved right? Cover the planet in desert, increase albedo, cool the planet. Problem solved :rolleyes:

hey its you that simplified it by just using the albedo. wich surely is confusing as your claim was wrong, sure if you factor in other things than merely the albedo, then yes it surely is much more complicated. why didn't you make that clear from the beginning? you only talked about the albedo. this leads me to believe that you do not really know what you are talking about here.
 
after a long absence I see Furcifer still does not understand why small average change result in greatly increased risk of extremes.

snip

Um, we're talking about small average or "annual" changes in albedo. This has an obvious effect on local weather (everyone knows and can confirm it's hotter in the city than in the sourrounding country).
This has an effect on weather, which in turn has an effect on climate. This is indisputable. The science is sound, proven, and can easily be demonstrated to school children.
 
This is amusing. We present examples of weather extremes, which can easily be explained through changes in albedo, and then we're inundatef with examples of how albedo has little effect on climate.

CLIMATE IS NOT WEATHER.

Localized changes in albedo should not significantly affect climate, especially World climate.

Chicago turn the entire city to a big block of concrete without having serious, or noticeable effect of Global Warming.

But you would have to be completely ignorant of climate change to think such a change won't have any effect on the weather.
It's quite obvious it will. It must. But a change in weather, such as a heat wave, is not an indication of change to climate. At least not until the change is recorded over a minimum of 30 years. And even then, it's not change due to CO2 emissions, at least not entirely.
 
FYI, I haven't been absent. I read the thread. I only respond to posts which are scientifically worthy of merit. Most of the posts citing sources like RealCrapClimate are simply Woo and are unworthy of consideration.
Unless it's journal citation it's woo.
 
Only source I've been able to find; Daily Fail. I don't care much for it either.

But has anyone yet debunked this purported study?

Tree-ring-study-proves-climate-WARMER-Roman-Medieval-times-modern-industrial-age
Tree ring study gives first accurate climate reading back to 138BC
World has been slowly cooling for 2,000 years
World was warmer in Roman and Medieval times than it is now
Study of semi-fossilised trees in Finland


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...imes-modern-industrial-age.html#ixzz20LZDrokx
 
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