Moderated Global Warming Discussion

[Trakar]

That's going to stir things up. I trust Shakun et al are ready for what's likely to come at them and their institutions after this...

my admittedly limited personal knowledge of Shakun and his fellow researchers (as well as the subsequent media blitz of the information, interviews and coverage of this study) suggests that they are not only prepared, but that they may have intended this as a direct bow shot, given its wording.

It coincides remarkably with http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/04/120404133801.htm , also in Nature, about the PETM and subsequent climate excursions :

"Old News for Carbon Dioxide, New Threats for Climate Change"
(YouTube link)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=CymxV0cPJr4

 

[Trakar]

Thanks Trakar and lomiller

No thanks required,
I just try to learn from others
and share the information and understandings
I have learned.

There are few sacred cows when it comes to science,
information increases, understandings grow;
you either evolve and progress,
or you don't.

 

[Trakar]

my admittedly limited personal knowledge of Shakun and his fellow researchers (as well as the subsequent media blitz of the information, interviews and coverage of this study) suggests that they are not only prepared, but that they may have intended this as a direct bow shot, given its wording.

It coincides remarkably with http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/04/120404133801.htm , also in Nature, about the PETM and subsequent climate excursions :

"Old News for Carbon Dioxide, New Threats for Climate Change"
(YouTube link)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=CymxV0cPJr4

Apologies, somehow I co-opted your science daily and nature line there, it was unintentional.

 

[aleCcowaN]

The Artctic is at the highest level in years and probably going to continue that way as the multi year ice is increasing as is the thickness of the old ice.

You are aware that ice left last Summer season becomes two-year ice once Winter went by and we come into Spring, aren't you? Otherwise it's just another case of the myth-like "President Eisenhower was shocked to learn that about half of all graduates were below average"

By the way, is there Arctic ice volume anywhere in you analysis?

 

[Warmer1]

That's going to stir things up. I trust Shakun et al are ready for what's likely to come at them and their institutions after this.

With CO2 tracking so close to temperature over such a long period it's hard to imagine anyone challenging the idea...... oops!, except for the deniers, politicians and anti-science crowd.

It coincides remarkably with http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/04/120404133801.htm , also in Nature, about the PETM and subsequent climate excursions :

That mechanism being permafrost melting in response to Milankovich cycles (" changes in Earth's tilt and orbit").

I wonder if some of the CO2 or methane released in future warming events was from a breakdown of Azolla ferns that covered the Arctic Ocean of it they would have just sunk and trapped CO2?

""Basically, it looks like the Earth released a gigantic fart of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere - and globally the Earth warmed by about 5C (9F).

"This event is already widely studied over the whole planet - but the one big exception was the Arctic Ocean."

The core revealed that before 55 million years ago, the surface waters of the Arctic Ocean were ice-free and as warm as 18C (64F).

But the sudden increase in greenhouse gases boosted them to a balmy 24C (75F) and the waters suddenly filled with a tropical algae, Apectodinium.

[snip]

The water changed from salty to fresh, and the ocean became covered with a thick layer of freshwater fern, called Azolla.

"We assume from climate models from the early Eocene Period that there was lots of fresh water coming into the basin via precipitation and giant Canadian and Siberian river run-offs," said Professor Brinkhuis.

"And, at a certain point, this gave rise to this whopping great growth of Azolla."

He believes the prolific growth of this fern, may be linked to the later drops in temperature in the area.

"When you have so much of this plant in this giant sea, you have a mechanism to pump out carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. It is sort of an anti-greenhouse effect," he said.

"We argue that this sits right on the break from the really warm hot house period into the time when the ice house begins."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/5034026.stm
(2006)

I wonder how much organic matter that was and what happened to it? I seem to remember reading that in some cores the ferns were 3 feet thick.

 

[Warmer1]

Sorry, should have used Google sooner "stored in the Arctic sediments"

http://www.darwincenter.nl/DarwinCenter.aspx?id=503&idn=64

Azolla bloom

Combined with the enhanced influx and regeneration of phosphorus, this led to the sustained production of Azolla during a period of 160.000 to 1.200.000 yrs in the Eocene. Enormous quantities of organic material derived from Azolla were subsequently stored in the Arctic sediments, which resulted in a world-wide decrease in atmospheric pCO2, thereby contributing to the transition from the Eocene greenhouse to our present-day temperate climate.
We like Azolla ferns. Azolla ferns are our friend

 

[Trakar]

Sorry, should have used Google sooner "stored in the Arctic sediments"

http://www.darwincenter.nl/DarwinCenter.aspx?id=503&idn=64

Azolla bloom

Combined with the enhanced influx and regeneration of phosphorus, this led to the sustained production of Azolla during a period of 160.000 to 1.200.000 yrs in the Eocene. Enormous quantities of organic material derived from Azolla were subsequently stored in the Arctic sediments, which resulted in a world-wide decrease in atmospheric pCO2, thereby contributing to the transition from the Eocene greenhouse to our present-day temperate climate.
We like Azolla ferns. Azolla ferns are our friend

That timeframe, a couple hundred thousand to a million years or more, is a bit long to much help our civilization or extant biomes.

 

[CapelDodger]

my admittedly limited personal knowledge of Shakun and his fellow researchers (as well as the subsequent media blitz of the information, interviews and coverage of this study) suggests that they are not only prepared, but that they may have intended this as a direct bow shot, given its wording.

They'd all have to be remarkably naive not to be very well aware, and the people at Nature certainly were. WattsUpMyButt is on it already, of course: Shakun is being tricksy, my precious, and Nature has fallen for it. The deniers are, unsurprisingly, sticking with what they already believe and have added another demon to their collection. Oregon's full of them, apparently .

 

[CapelDodger]

We like Azolla ferns. Azolla ferns are our friend

Of course this will have no bearing on what happens during this great carbon-fart, but it's more good work towards explaining that 55-50Mya period. Working out what happened around now is left as an exercise for future palaeoclimatologists (of whatever species and planet of origin).

If they're from a planet which never had fossil-fuels it will appear very mysterious . They might blame it on our use of concrete until they run the numbers.

 

[Trakar]

They'd all have to be remarkably naive not to be very well aware, and the people at Nature certainly were. WattsUpMyButt is on it already, of course: Shakun is being tricksy, my precious, and Nature has fallen for it. The deniers are, unsurprisingly, sticking with what they already believe and have added another demon to their collection. Oregon's full of them, apparently .

It's all a perspective issue,...I assure you!

We aren't fallen, just on sabbatical!

 

[Trakar]

Of course this will have no bearing on what happens during this great carbon-fart, but it's more good work towards explaining that 55-50Mya period. Working out what happened around now is left as an exercise for future palaeoclimatologists (of whatever species and planet of origin).

If they're from a planet which never had fossil-fuels it will appear very mysterious . They might blame it on our use of concrete until they run the numbers.

We should probably rename our species - "sapiens" no longer seems appropriate. I suspect we will survive this event, we are sufficiently clever for that, but most likely in greatly reduced numbers and not near as grand a fashion, the problem then becomes a lack of diversity in our own populations and surviving biomes, perhaps, with our burgeoning genetic understandings, we are even clever enough to escape that potential trap,...time will tell, perhaps fouling the nest is a necessary preliminary step to moving beyond the nest. Homo Callidus will take some getting used to but it is probably more appropriate.

 

[Trakar]

Flashback: "Science" 28 August 1981, Volume 213, Number 4511

http://thedgw.org/definitionsOut/..\docs\Hansen_climate_impact_of_increasing_co2.pdf

Summary. The global temperature rose by 0.20C between the middle 1960's and 1980, yielding a warming of 0.4°C in the past century. This temperature increase is consistent with the calculated greenhouse effect due to measured increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variations of volcanic aerosols and possibly solar luminosity appear to be primary causes of observed fluctuations about the mean trend of increasing temperature. It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the end of the century, and there is a high probability of warming in the 1980's. Potential effects on climate in the 21st century include the creation of drought-prone regions in North America and central Asia as part of a shifting of climatic zones, erosion of the West Antarctic ice sheet with a consequent worldwide rise in sea level, and opening of the fabled Northwest Passage.

(read full paper - pdf ) at above link.

If anything Hansen appears to have underestimated the situation a tad, but scientists do tend to be a conservative bunch.

 

[Trakar]

Impact of warming climate doesn't always translate to streamflow

http://www.rdmag.com/News/2012/04/E...limate-Doesnt-Always-Translate-To-Streamflow/

...Julia Jones, an Oregon State University geoscientist, said that air temperatures increased significantly at 17 of the 19 sites that had 20- to 60-year climate records, but streamflow changes correlated with temperature changes in only seven of those study sites. In fact, water flow decreased only at sites with winter snow and ice, and there was less impact in warmer, more arid ecosystems.

...Jones said the important message in the research is that the impacts of climate change are not simple and straightforward. Through continuing study of how ecosystems adapt to changing conditions, resource managers may be able to adapt policies or mimic natural processes that offer the most favorable conditions for humans and ecosystems to thrive.

About the OSU College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences: CEOAS is internationally recognized for its faculty, research and facilities, including state-of-the-art computing infrastructure to support real-time ocean/atmosphere observation and prediction. The college is a leader in the study of the Earth as an integrated system, providing scientific understanding to address complex environmental challenges
(http://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/archi...g-climate-doesn’t-always-translate-streamflow )

 

[Trakar]

PSU geologist is lead author of new study published in BioScience

http://pdx.edu/news/Disappearing-ice

...Fountain, professor and department chair of geology at Portland State University, is lead author of the study, “The Disappearing Cryosphere: Impacts and Ecosystem Responses to Rapid Cryosphere Loss.” The journal BioScience, published by the American Institute of Biological Sciences, features results from more than 30 years of the National Science Foundation’s Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) program.


Fountain and his collaborators identified two primary outcomes for ecosystems within or that depend on the cryosphere:

Disruptions in the food chain due to loss of habitat and the disappearance or changes of those species present;

• Changes in the cycling of water, nutrients, oxygen, nitrogen and other elements that support plant and animal life.
• Whether these changes are positive or negative depends on how species—which include polar bears and penguins as well as everything from microbes to great whales—interact with and respond to their environment.

(...)
Link to paper - http://harvardforest.fas.harvard.ed...fas.harvard.edu/files/BioScience_Fountain.pdf

 

[Trakar]

David Brin: Our military is convinced that climate change is real

http://redgreenandblue.org/2012/04/...te-change-is-real-so-are-insurance-companies/

By David Brin

I regularly consult with various branches of our “protector caste”… from the military services and homeland security to several unnamed “agencies.” Naturally, I am encouraged by the fact that some of the most serious-minded men and women on the planet are very interested in well-grounded projections of diverse possible futures – not only mine, but those of several other “science & sci-fi guys.”

I can’t tell you about some of these “future studies.” But I am free to share this one observation:

Absolutely all of the top-elite officers of these services appear to be convinced, without a shadow of a doubt, about Human Generated Climate Change (HGCC). All of those I have met consider it to be both real and one of the greatest challenges of our time...

rest at Source: Red Green & Blue (http://s.tt/18LQg)

 

[Warmer1]

That timeframe, a couple hundred thousand to a million years or more, is a bit long to much help our civilization or extant biomes.

That is true and I hope that people get the message that there will be no easy short term fix, and the sooner we wake up the better, but given the extra 100 ppm of CO2 that has been produced and released already I think it is too late.

I was just joking around a little as well.

"thereby contributing to the transition from the Eocene greenhouse to our present-day temperate climate.

IOW so thanks Azolla ferns for getting us to the present-day temperate climate that we have enjoyed for so long. rather than a potential fix for the damage that we have done.

Capel Dodger
"Of course this will have no bearing on what happens during this great carbon-fart,

Very true! and when we consider jacking up the CO2 by an additional 100ppm compared to the long term average of 180ppm to 280ppm we can imagine what is coming.

Am I wrong in assuming that if humans are to survive that they will need to do so in very warm swamp like conditions with lots of rain? The ice caps will be melted and the Arctic should warm up even more than 55 million years ago when the CO2 levels were much lower. There was so much rain and runoff from Canada and Russia that the Arctic waters became fresh water. Now increase the CO2 by 100 ppm over those previous conditions.

I'm sorry but I just don't imagine humans surviving such huge changes over the long term. Just my $.02 and I would love to hear an explanation of why humans would survive huge non-linear temperature, heat, humidity and food source changes. There is an amazing resilience in nature though.

I think it will take millions of years for plants and oceanic organisms to draw down the CO2 as they did in the past.

We are so lucky to be living in this time period as we can see the changes coming.

 

[Reality Check]

Nope, he's doing better than ever (No I'm not back , just passing, too busy these days).
...snipped advertising for a crank web site...

Nope, he's producing the same garbage as usual .
Obviously you are too busy to realize that Piers Corbyn is just another rather deluded crank.

Oh dear - the stupidity of linking to a crank's YouTube video!

That makes Corbyn's final score:

Predictions: 10

Hits: 2

Success rate: 20%

I guess we can let this thread die now. Haig seems to have abandoned it, and I doubt anyone else has any remaining interest in either Corbyn's predictions or Project Astrometria. I know I don't.

 

[Reality Check]

"I posted on the ABC article site:
(Piers Corbyn says: March 21, 2012 at 7:54 pm))

Claims that this weather is 'new' and/or something to do with mankind's CO2 are delusional nonsense for which there is no evidence.
...
As has been pointed out the world anyway is not now warming but cooling
['/quote]
Piers Corbyn ignorance of climate science continues !
There is plenty of evidence for mankind's CO2 being a strong contributor to global warming.

Piers Corbyn has the delusion the global temperatures are now cooling !
Global cooling - Is global warming still happening?

 

[lomiller]

Don't forget land usage. And I'm not just talking 19th and 20th centuries, though there has been a greatly magnified acceleration of land usage changes in the last couple of centuries. Pre-columbian americans cleared vast tracts of south, central and north american forests and jungles; many of these jungles and forests regrew after climate and foriegn/domestic pestilences took their toll on populations that we are only now coming to fully appreciate in regards to size and inter-connected complexities. Noble or not, they lacked the tools to appropriately appreciate what was happening to them or why (other than that the Gods must be punishing them for their failings and weaknesses - hopefully our understandings are sufficient to yield more rational reactions.). Land use means more than just forests, it can refer to swamps and wetlands that are drained or reclaimed, streams and rivers that are diverted or dammed, lakes that are drained, paving and concrete expanses, etc.,. According to some research, human climate influences may stretch back to the holocene optimum period when human agricultural efforts first went large-scale, predominantly in the lower latitudes, at or shortly before the birth of "Great Civilizations."

I thought about mentioning land use, but for the most part the mechanism for this is still anthropogenic greenhouse gases, albeit from a different source than fossil fuels. It's worthwhile to point out that fossil fuels are not the only source of anthropogenic climate forcing though.

 

[Trakar]

"I posted on the ABC article site:
(Piers Corbyn says: March 21, 2012 at 7:54 pm))

Claims that this weather is 'new' and/or something to do with mankind's CO2 are delusional nonsense for which there is no evidence.
...
As has been pointed out the world anyway is not now warming but cooling

Piers Corbyn ignorance of climate science continues !
There is plenty of evidence for mankind's CO2 being a strong contributor to global warming.

Piers Corbyn has the delusion the global temperatures are now cooling !
Global cooling - Is global warming still happening?

As far as the US goes:

NOAA Says March Was Warmest On Record For US - http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120409-707234.html

Last month was the warmest March ever in the U.S., as "record or near-record breaking temperatures dominated the eastern two-thirds of the nation," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Monday. More than 15,000 warm-temperature records were broken, and the average temperature was 8.6 degrees above the 20th-century average for March. Of more than 1,400 months passed since the U.S. climate record began, only one--January 2006--had seen a larger departure from the average, NOAA said. Every single state saw at least one record-warm daily temperature during the month.

February 2012 marks the 324th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.