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I've provided several links to the politically biased ramblings at RealCrapClimate.com. They're filtering climate science to further their political agenda. It's pseudoscience.

So you keep claiming. But repeating does not make it true, i must repeat. You (still) have not provided any examples of pseudoscience at RealClimate.

Making coverage selections does NOT make for pseudoscience. Taking a side on a debate does NOT make for pseudoscience. Political commentary, even if you see it as biased commentary, does NOT make for pseudoscience.

I'll tell you what, I'll give you an example of the political agenda driven pieces at RealCrapClimate.com and then you try to find similar ones at Nature? How does that sound?

Sounds great!! Lets try that. I'm all ears.

Pure nonsense and a deliberate misrepresentation of fact.

You probably did not read the links i gave?

I've cited 2 examples and I don't intend on reading any more garbage from that site. It's political nonsense and it has no place in an actual science based website.

I have only seen one link from you - more about that one later.. could you please tell me what the other one was?

Which makes the pseudoscience that much more egregious.

Publishing scientists in a related field as writers in a web site makes for even bigger pseudoscience?

I can't follow your train of thought here at all, sorry.

There is no pseudoscience at RealClimate. There's science, and there's stuff that is not science. But pseudoscience... not.

Yes, and it's unfortunate their using that science to push a political agenda.

What political agenda might that be? Appreciation of mainstream science?

More goal post moving. I've provided the examples and you've ignored them and demanded more.

What?

In your post where you linked to RealClimate the only time i have seen...

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=7906496#post7906496

...you wrote:
*sigh

From the wiki article already linked several times:

It becomes pseudoscientific when science cannot be separated from ideology, scientists misrepresents scientific findings to promote or draw attention for publicity, when politicians, journalists and a nations intellectual elite distort the facts of science for short-term political gain,


First page on on your pseudoscience site:

"Climate cynicism at the Santa Fe conference"

That article has nothing to do with "climate science".
...
If i ask you to tell us how the very arguments you use for claiming the linked article is pseudoscience actually apply to the article in question, i'm shifting goal posts??

Nope, i most certainly am not. So, for the sixth time:
Could you please point out what in that text, which is a commentary about a confrence, and in your own words, has nothing to do with climate science....

- makes science and idology unseparable (and/or)
- misrepresents scientific findings to promote or draw attention for publicity (and/or)
- distorts the facts of science for short-term political gain

...because i can not find anything in that article that would fit any of the above??
 
1. Deportment.
2. McIntyre has a B.Sc. in Math, an MA in economics, and considerable statistical expertise. Those are "climate science related".

Not particulatly. tehy could of course, if he focuesed his studioes in that direction, b ut he hasn't.

The fact remains that he simply doesn't have the publication record to justifying your faith in him. He's written one peer reviewed papers that ended up[ shredded and rejected by the scientific community and that's it. Otherwise he does these same op-ed piece that are worth nothing.

So once again, why do you believe an amateur who claim to fame is spouting off on the internet is someone we should listen too over NASA's top climate scientists?



1. Deportment.

3. As McIntyre demonstrates in his most recent post, AGW theorists still withhold data.

More of his typical BS. Perhaps you would care to detail which elements you found convincing and back them up with some evidence.

As I said in the other thread the fact that you can find a crackpot on the internet who holds some opinion or another doesn't mean anything to us.
 
I haven't read the three articles in question (that blog thing), but, to my general take on this issue a more accurate wording of the understanding of the mainstream perspective (at this time) is that this particular study of arctic methane emissions doesn't seem to be anything extraordinary nor does it significantly alter mainstream considerations of current/future Arctic methane emissions.

Actually they seem to downplay Arctic Methane altogether. Even their absolute worst case scenario where Methane release speeds up 100X only results in radiative forcing comparable to what we are likely to do with CO2, and this only persists a decade so if Methane release starts to slow.
 
1. Deportment.
2. McIntyre has a B.Sc. in Math, an MA in economics, and considerable statistical expertise. Those are "climate science related".
3. As McIntyre demonstrates in his most recent post, AGW theorists still withhold data.

(Trakar): "This page has now been updated to reflect a more accurate and less subject to distorted misinterpretation reflection of computer climate modelling:"...http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/virtualmu...ge2/07_1.shtmlWhich does not contradict the earlier assertion about uncertainty and errors compounding as the computations built into the models procede. As the quote from the updated course description indicates, confidence in projecting changes in the direction and magnitude of climate extremes depends on many factors, including the type of extreme, the region and season, the amount and quality of observational data, the level of understanding of the underlying processes, and the reliability of their simulation in models. Seems to me, if you overlay natural variation onto a trend as small as the projected mean temperature increase for the 21st century, projected changes in climate extremes under different emissions scenarios generally will not strongly diverge in an interval as small as two to three decades, since these signals (trends in high and low points of various phenomena) are relatively small compared to natural climate variability over just a few decades. Even the sign of projected changes in some climate extremes over this time frame will be uncertain. For projected changes by the end of the 21st century, either model uncertainty or uncertainties associated with emissions scenarios used becomes dominant, depending on the extreme. Low-probability high-impact changes associated with the crossing of poorly understood climate thresholds cannot be excluded, given the transient and complex nature of the climate system.

Malcolm, none of the above answers my question. Please read my question again and attempt to answer it.
 
@Malcolm:

I never did get an answer in the closed thread as to why you chose to put your trust in the vast minority of people - most of whom have no climate science related credentials whatsoever.

Please don't answer that the climate scientists have witheld data as we both know by now that they haven't.

Among those of us who recognize the problems of a rapidly changing climate, there is a broad range of public policy issues that need to be discussed. That is a discussion I would still like to engage in. I'd be interested in seeing if there is any broader interest in such a discussion among this thread's readers and participants.
 
A great entry level explanation on how climate models work, brilliant stuff, even i can get my head around it :)

http://www.skepticalscience.com/how-do-climate-models-work.html

This is a climate model:

T = [(1-α)S/(4εσ)]1/4
(T is temperature, α is the albedo, S is the incoming solar radiation, ε is the emissivity, and σ is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant)

An extremely simplified climate model, that is. It's one line long, and is at the heart of every computer model of global warming. Using basic thermodynamics, it calculates the temperature of the Earth based on incoming sunlight and the reflectivity of the surface. The model is zero-dimensional, treating the Earth as a point mass at a fixed time. It doesn't consider the greenhouse effect, ocean currents, nutrient cycles, volcanoes, or pollution.

If you fix these deficiencies, the model becomes more and more complex. You have to derive many variables from physical laws, and use empirical data to approximate certain values. You have to repeat the calculations over and over for different parts of the Earth. Eventually the model is too complex to solve using pencil, paper and a pocket calculator. It's necessary to program the equations into a computer, and that's what climate scientists have been doing ever since computers were invented.
 
uke2se: "@Malcolm:
I never did get an answer in the closed thread as to why you chose to put your trust in the vast minority of people1 - most of whom have no climate science related credentials whatsoever2. Please don't answer that the climate scientists have witheld data as we both know by now that they haven't3.
"
Malcolm:"1. Deportment.
2. McIntyre has a B.Sc. in Math, an MA in economics, and considerable statistical expertise. Those are "climate science related".
3. As McIntyre demonstrates in his most recent post, AGW theorists still withhold data.
"
uke2se:"Malcolm, none of the above answers my question. Please read my question again and attempt to answer it."
0. "Vast minority" is oxymoronic.
1. Deportment. That's my answer. Plus, a sense that a 3o C. increase over 100 years amounts to .3o C. in a decade, and people who confidently claim to detect this against the background of dominant noise either misrepresent their confidence, or they're fools.
Plus, data manipulation such as this does not help.
2. Credentials count for something, but honest and open argument. count for more. McIntyre's credentials suffice for the task he set himself (assessing the statistics).
3. As to "we both know", read this.
 
Actually they seem to downplay Arctic Methane altogether. Even their absolute worst case scenario where Methane release speeds up 100X only results in radiative forcing comparable to what we are likely to do with CO2, and this only persists a decade so if Methane release starts to slow.

That may seem like "downplay" if you were expecting Arctic (not so perma -frost) CH4 to literally turn the planet into Hades, but anything that doubles the cumulative input of humanity's CO2 emissions thus far seems more than dramatic enough to me all on its own. Saying that the (hopefully exagerated consideration) potential for CH4 max's out at roughly doubling the effect of our additions to the atmosphere's CO2 levels, which only lasts for a short time as the oxygen in our atmosphere converts the CH4 into CO2 resulting in a long term effective doubling of our atmospheric CO2 emission concentration is pretty rough.

I'm assuming that we are talking Arctic permafrost CH4 here not the global clathrate ice beds. If they are including global clathrate deposits I would like to see links to the papers they are using to support these conclusions as that is distinctly in disagreement with volumes of such deposits I've seen listed as most probable.
 
A great entry level explanation on how climate models work, brilliant stuff, even i can get my head around it :)

http://www.skepticalscience.com/how-do-climate-models-work.html

I still fall back to the stalworth references myself (in connection to the topic of models something like: "Simple Models of Climate" from the American Institute of Physics site).

I have nothing against the skeptical science site. I was a contributing and regularly participating member of the site when it first started (as I was with Real Climate), but I find it easier in terms of consistency and to avoid extended back and forths about the equivilancy of blogs, to simply avoid them all and stick strictly to the science and solid science references in discussions. That way I don't have to waste as much time trying to refute or debate third party interpretations and understandings and can stick to first person discussions. I don't avoid blogs because I think all of them are equally worthless, but rather because they are not all equally and objectively of value and the argument about which ones are valuable and which ones are trash is a distraction from the discussion of climate issues that I'd rather not encourage or participate in.
 
2. McIntyre has a B.Sc. in Math, an MA in economics, and considerable statistical expertise. Those are "climate science related".

This does not answer my question. I allowed that some denialists have credentials. I disagree with you that McIntyre's credentials are relevant to climate science.

Please answer my question now.

3. As McIntyre demonstrates in his most recent post, AGW theorists still withhold data.[/I]"

McIntyre "demonstrates" no such thing. He might assert it, but as the eight independent investigations have told us, no data has been withheld.

0. "Vast minority" is oxymoronic.

Think about it.

Scratch that, don't think about it. Let me rephraze instead. Substitute "vast minority" for "tiny minority".

1. Deportment. That's my answer. Plus, a sense that a 3o C. increase over 100 years amounts to .3o C. in a decade, and people who confidently claim to detect this against the background of dominant noise either misrepresent their confidence, or they're fools.

So basic incredulity then. Thanks.

Plus, data manipulation such as this does not help.

As eight independent investigations have shown us, no data has been manipulated.

2. Credentials count for something, but honest and open argument. count for more. McIntyre's credentials suffice for the task he set himself (assessing the statistics).

But that's not all he does, is it?

3. As to "we both know", read this.

No. Read the eight independent investigations clearing the climate scientists of this baseless accusation.
 
By the way, Malcolm, don't you think that science stands separate from the scientist? If the science is correct (as climate science has been shown to be over and over and over again) does it matter what the scientist does?

Speaking of science, when was the last time McIntyre submitted a paper on climate science for peer review?
 
I'm assuming that we are talking Arctic permafrost CH4 here not the global clathrate ice beds.

They're talking about shallow-ocean permafrost and clathrates. This is to counter a certain amount of hype about methane plumes and the like. Land-based permafrost is another thing entirely, with more data but much of it still pretty recent (21stCE).
 
Originally Posted by CapelDodger:
No pseudoscience filtered through McIntyre or Curry to respond to (the old guys that make it are running out of ideas and energy), just personal attacks...

In the same sentence, no less.

Pseudoscience does filter (or rather, gush) through McIntyre's and Curry's blogs whenever it's available. Any numerology that claims to disprove AGW, for instance. There was a fine example recently which Curry awarded a "Wow!" to - an old guy thinks he's proved that recent CO2 increases are caused by warming not the burning of fossil-fuels. "Gone emeritus" counts as a recommendation for denier blogs.

Anyhoo, contrary to the oft-repeated claim that all pro-AGW are now available, McIntyre demonstrates that this claim is currently false.

He makes you think he's done so, and you are in his target audience, so he's earning his keep. Why he cares so little for intellectual property rights is his own business, of course; no doubt he's up-in-arms over SOPA.

What his post actually is is a personal attack on Neukom and his co-authors (or "cronies" in McIntyre-speak). (More on that later.) As for Curry, even at a conference where Singer and Monckton refrain from personal attacks (as agreed) she simply can't resist. It's all she's got, after all, except for the evil uncertainty monster that lives in her wardrobe.

So yes, pseudoscience and personal attacks from McIntyre and Curry. I'm surprised anybody can miss it.
 
For those looking for good additional climate modelling references and resources, there are many good examples at solid science reference sites (in addition to the AIP link referenced earlier) such as -

PhysicsWorld.com (for those who don't already have subscriptions there is a free registration avaialble which provides access to many of the articles and papers they highlight):

"A model approach to climate change" - http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/print/26946

There are also a wonderful set of books (exemplified by the following - larger read list available to the interested)) available from various vendors (usually at less than $20 a pop) that deal with the subject in great depth but easily absorbed explanations:

"A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming" 2010 by Paul N. Edwards (you can read the Intro - first 17 pages - at http://mitpress.mit.edu/books/chapters/0262013924intro1.pdf)

On more general climate change issues, I find things like this (below) to be interesting reads (particularly with an eye towards public policy issues):

"Global warming: Stop worrying, start panicking?"
 
McIntyre "demonstrates" no such thing1. He might assert it, but as the eight independent investigations have told us, no data has been withheld2.
1. Read the linked post.
2. Then they lied. Just ask defenders like lomiller who claim that the denial was based on agreements with the weather bureaux that supplied the data. Get the alibi straight. Further, the latest Climate Audit post is about recent denials of raw data.
So basic incredulity then. Thanks.
Not at all. Their behavior demonstrates what lawyers call "mens rea".
 
13. As McIntyre demonstrates in his most recent post, AGW theorists still withhold data.

Let's examine that post.

McIntyre has demanded that he be given data by people who don't own the intellectual property rights to it. He feels he's entitled to look at anything he wants (hence his presumed opposition to SOPA). When Neukom states :

"Most of the non-publicly available records were provided to us for use within the PAGES LOTRED-SA initiative only"

McIntyre calls that an "excuse" (his quotes), not a good reason. The data itself is clearly not being concealed because its owners do make it available for specified purposes. McIntyre could go to them for it - but then he'd have to specify his purpose, and we know he never does anything with data. He just demands more and implies that something is being hidden from the honest light of day. As a propagandist it's his purpose to imply such things, but he's careful not to make an actionable claim. He's very sly that way, as I'm sure you've noticed.

With regard to why some data isn't publicly available : scientists and institutions have gone to great effort and expense to gather this data. They did so with the intention of producing useful papers on the subject. That's their right, and is not uncommon. The scientists involved want the first bite of what they've brought in.

Neukom et al's paper does not conflict with the papers which these scientists intend to publish and so they'll make it available. Neukom isn't going to just pass it on, because that's the agreement. It is shared amongst his co-authors (that's "cronies" to McIntyre) because they're all working on the same thing.

So having got the obligatory conspiracy innuendos McIntyre goes on to one of his favourite subjects - the IPCC. The IPCC AR5 draft makes reference to Neukom et al's peer-reviewed paper and McIntyre thinks that's wrong because firstly, McIntyre hasn't been given the data to ignore, and secondly, the IPCC's remit is to examine and report on the latest peer-reviewed science without checking it. McIntye's assumption is that all science is lies until it's checked (unless it's from Chris de Freitas, or Spencer, or indeed any of McIntyre's cronies). The IPCC (and pretty much everybody else) thinks that science which passes muster, including pre- and post-publication peer-review, is kosher until proven otherwise.

So having got the second requirement (attack the IPCC) out of the way, with a side-swipe at "the various models" (on which he promises more to come, have you seen it yet?), he moves on to the paper itself. Which he seems to like a lot.

For instance (from the IPCC AR5 draft) :

"A multi-proxy reconstruction for southern South American (Neukom et al., 2011) finds austral summer temperatures between 900 CE and 1350 CE that are mostly warmer than the 20th century climatology (though associated with large uncertainties), with a sharp transition after 1350 CE to colder conditions that last until approximately 1700 CE."

Before this he gets into making some stuff up, viz :

... the Medieval Warm Period (you know, the one that is supposedly regionally restricted to Greenland and a few counties in England) ...”:

This, of course, is not what is widely supposed. McIntyre either doesn't understand the difference between the MWP and the LIA or he's just lying. The MWP is recognised as a global phaenomenon in a period which saw very little vulcanism, and so little of its cooling impact. The Greenland reference presumably ties into criticism of those (Singer for one) who cherry-pick Greenland records because they show an amplified response.

"Warmer than 20thCE climatology" refers to the average of the 20thCE, not just the 20-30 year period in which AGW has been making itself felt. It's not controversial to say that the MWP may have been as warm as the early 1980's. The 80's got warmer, the 90's were warmer than the 80's, and the 2000's were warmer than the 90's (but that's 21stCE, of course). So no big story.

So then

"Citation of Neukom et al 2011 by IPCC clearly takes its use outside the realm of LOTRED-SA associates, but Neukom has thus far taken no steps to ensure that proxy data of Neukom et al 2011 (now used by IPCC) is available to anyone outside his circle of cronies."

which revisits the concealment and IPCC themes, and another use of "cronies". (These things are as structured as a symphony.) This fits with McIntyre's "Team" motif, which means ever scientist except his own cronies - de Freitas, Singer, Lindzen, Soon and his A-Team, you know the crowd. Curry seems to think she's a crony, but I don't see it myself.


Moving on :

'Series said to be available “upon request from the original owners” are, for the most part, the same series that had previously been described as only “available on request for LOTRED-SA contributors”.'

A blatant lie, of course, I'm surprised you missed it. Remember Neukom's reason?

"Most of the non-publicly available records were provided to us for use within the PAGES LOTRED-SA initiative only"

Where has the data previously been described as only “available on request for LOTRED-SA contributors”? Nowhere - McIntyre is lying, but he knows his target audience has a limited attention span.

On it runs, with reference to Slime-It Gate and all the usual stuff. It essentially boils down to : everything's about the Hockey-Stick; McIntyre's all about the Hockey-Stick; therefore everything's about McIntyre. This is why he hates Monckton.
 
Think about it.

I think language is made richer by oxymoron myself. "Vast minority" says a great deal very succinctly.

Scratch that, don't think about it. Let me rephraze instead. Substitute "vast minority" for "tiny minority".

I'll go with "cronies" in discussion with McIntyre's faction. And, similarly, "bed-wetters" when discussing matters with Monckton's faction (not that we hear much from them these days, I think his "cure for AIDS" pushed credulity a bit too far).
 
They're talking about shallow-ocean permafrost and clathrates. This is to counter a certain amount of hype about methane plumes and the like. Land-based permafrost is another thing entirely, with more data but much of it still pretty recent (21stCE).

IOW, permafrost that's now submerged under rising sea levels of the last several thousand years (8-12)?
 
"If you fix these deficiencies, the model becomes more and more complex. You have to derive many variables from physical laws, and use empirical data to approximate certain values. You have to repeat the calculations over and over for different parts of the Earth. Eventually the model is too complex to solve using pencil, paper and a pocket calculator. It's necessary to program the equations into a computer, and that's what climate scientists have been doing ever since computers were invented."

Not "ever since computers were invented" (breaking Enigma was a pressing priority) but certainly shortly afterwards, and the idea will have been gestating in several minds beforehand. A lot of the work was done by Brits, such as Turing, and we are famously obsessed with the weather. Partly because of our maritime history but mostly because we get so much of it. The Atlantic spares us from extremes, but delivers massive amounts of the middling stuff. It comes at us like junk-mail.

Climate models are actually weather models writ large. They bring in variables (atmospheric CO2, albedo, insolation, continental-crust arrangements, Urban Heat Island Effect, etc) which weather models don't. I suspect this explains why some meteorologists and weather-presenters find AGW so alien - the models they use or report on don't include these parameters. Very useful for short-term predictions from a given state, which is what they're for.

Climate models, of course, are about the boundaries within which weather can vary when other factors are different. A steady-state model isn't too hard. A changing-state model is much trickier, particularly when albedo isn't steady-state nor well-predicted. At least that problem should go away in the next decade or two.
 
That may seem like "downplay" if you were expecting Arctic (not so perma -frost) CH4 to literally turn the planet into Hades, but anything that doubles the cumulative input of humanity's CO2 emissions thus far seems more than dramatic enough to me all on its own. Saying that the (hopefully exagerated consideration) potential for CH4 max's out at roughly doubling the effect of our additions to the atmosphere's CO2 levels, which only lasts for a short time as the oxygen in our atmosphere converts the CH4 into CO2 resulting in a long term effective doubling of our atmospheric CO2 emission concentration is pretty rough.

I'm assuming that we are talking Arctic permafrost CH4 here not the global clathrate ice beds. If they are including global clathrate deposits I would like to see links to the papers they are using to support these conclusions as that is distinctly in disagreement with volumes of such deposits I've seen listed as most probable.

As I said it was supposed top be an extreme scenario. Essential what thy are saying is that you would need incredibly high rates of Methane release (100X current) and it would need to be a sustained release not a pulse.

They argue that is is unlikely and therefor you can consider the carbon released pretty much the same as fossil or any other sequestered carbon in terms of climate impact. The fact that it's released as methane rather then CO2 probably isn't going to be an issue in any reasonable scenario.
 
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