Moderated Global Warming Discussion

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The source you quote says "This value is 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average," from which you seem to be trying to interpret "0.5oC increase over the last 130 years" Read what is actually stated. I'm really losing faith in some in this forum, the simplest issues of basic education and fundemental science and math understanding seem to present the most confusion.

That's because you are wrong, it's 0.5oC increase over the average in the last 130 years (the 20th century average isn't truncated like you were implying either).

These are indeed very basic errors the seem to confound some people.
 
. What is not evident, however is that the increases in modern damage expenses are solely due to inflated property values.

It isn't. The exponential growth in population in the areas like "Tornado Alley" also contributes greatly to the damage expenses.

As an example, the path of a tornado in might touch upon 500 homes in 1920, where now it could be upwards of 10000, perhaps even 50 000 homes.

If we presume the homes are completely destroyed the damage in 1920's dollars is maybe $2500x500= 1.25M which equals 14.5M in today's dollars. Today that same storm, along the same path could cause 2.5 Billlion perhaps even closer to 10 Billion.
 
It isn't. The exponential growth in population in the areas like "Tornado Alley" also contributes greatly to the damage expenses...

A bigger portion of the problem is that "tornado alley" is much larger today than it was in 1920, and being frequented by more storms of greater average intensity.
 
That's because you are wrong, it's 0.5oC increase over the average in the last 130 years (the 20th century average isn't truncated like you were implying either).

These are indeed very basic errors the seem to confound some people.

So the "20th century average" doesn't refer to the average of the temperatures that occurred in the 20th century?! Is that a position that you really want to advocate? in the same virtual breath where you are complaining about "very basic errors" that seem to confound other people? seriously?!
 
So we'll just discard those, they aren't part of the global average. :boggled:

Science doesn't work like that. Good science at least, junk science might.
So we'll just use these measurements, they are part of the global average. :jaw-dropp!

Science works like this. Good science at least, junk science (read Anthony Watts :D) might.
 
Yes it does. The bias isn't consistent from day to day and month to month. You obviously didn't read the paper to understand the sources of the bias.
[/uote]
I read the paper. I saw the source of the bias. I read that authors do not state that their results have any effect on global temperatures. The lack of this means that bthe paper really has no place ion this thread.

Even the authors state that the results have little to no effect on the temperature trend.
Analysis of the impacts of station exposure on the U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperatures and temperature trends
Temperature trend estimates vary according to site classification, with poor siting leading to an overestimate of minimum temperature trends and an underestimate of maximum temperature trends, resulting in particular in a substantial difference in estimates of the diurnal temperature range trends. The opposite-signed differences of maximum and minimum temperature trends are similar in magnitude, so that the overall mean temperature trends are nearly identical across site classifications.

As I said - the paper is putting better numbers on what is already known, i.e. that siting has little effect on temperature trends, e.g.
Menne et al. 2010
On the reliability of the U.S. surface temperature record (PDF)
Recent photographic documentation of poor siting conditions at stations in the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) has led to questions regarding the reliability of surface temperature trends over the conterminous United States (CONUS). To evaluatethe potential impact of poor siting/instrument exposure on CONUS temperatures, trends derived from poor and well sited USHCN stations were compared. Results indicate that there is a mean bias associated with poor exposure sites relative to good exposure sites; however, this bias is consistent with previously documented changes associated with the widespread conversion to electronic sensors in the USHCN during the last 25 years. Moreover, the sign of the bias is counterintuitive to photographic documentation of poor exposure because associated instrument changes have led to an artificial negative (“cool”) bias in maximum temperatures and only a slight positive (“warm”) bias in minimum temperatures. These results underscore the need to consider all changes in observation practice when determining
the impacts of siting irregularities. Further, the influence of nonstandard siting on temperature trends can only be quantified through an analysis of the data. Adjustments applied to USHCN Version 2 data largely account for the impact of instrument and siting changes, although a small overall residual negative (“cool”) bias appears to remain in the adjusted maximum temperature series. Nevertheless, the adjusted USHCN temperatures
are extremely well aligned with recent measurements from instruments whose exposure characteristics meet the highest standards for climate monitoring. In summary, we find no evidence that the CONUS average temperature trends are inflated due to poor station siting.

Yes they are. So are Canada's and South America's and Asia,even little old Australia. They're all global temperatures. (cuz they're all part of the globe)
You obviously do not know this but in climate science, global temperature is the overall temperature of the globe. It is essentially an average of the Arctic, Antarctic, US, Canada, South America, Thailand, Australia and even little old New Zealand temperatures.

The US tempertaures are regional temperatures.
Yes, what they know but don't like to admit.

Deny, deny, deny.
Wrong: What they know and really like to admit and educate people about, e.g. that surface station measurements need careful analysis.

Science, Science, Science.
 

Hi Furcifer, You missed:

You do know that diurnal is the daily tempertaure difference?




What "According to the best‐sited stations, the diurnal temperature range in the lower 48 states has no century‐scale trend." from the abstract means is that
  • The data from the best sited stations
  • have a daily temperature range (i.e. day time minus night time)
  • that has no trend over the last century.
This says nothing about any trend in the actual temperatures or temperature anomalies read by the best sited stations.
 
So the "20th century average" doesn't refer to the average of the temperatures that occurred in the 20th century?! Is that a position that you really want to advocate? in the same virtual breath where you are complaining about "very basic errors" that seem to confound other people? seriously?!


Truncated means "cut off" or "cut short". The 20th century average actually includes the years from 1880-1899 or thereabouts. I don't see why this continues to elude you, surely you understand not everything is "literal".
 
I read the paper. I saw the source of the bias. I read that authors do not state that their results have any effect on global temperatures. The lack of this means that bthe paper really has no place ion this thread.

I'm afraid you don't understand how the scientific community works. The study is on the bias, the ramifications are another study altogether. Discovery happens in stages, not all at once.

Even the authors state that the results have little to no effect on the temperature trend.
Analysis of the impacts of station exposure on the U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperatures and temperature trends
The paper on the lower 48 states doesn't, the bias is small. The effects of the bias in the Antarctic isn't known, and I'm not sure about the bias in the Arctic exactly.

You obviously do not know this but in climate science, global temperature is the overall temperature of the globe. It is essentially an average of the Arctic, Antarctic, US, Canada, South America, Thailand, Australia and even little old New Zealand temperatures.

The US tempertaures are regional temperatures.

Wrong: What they know and really like to admit and educate people about, e.g. that surface station measurements need careful analysis.

Science, Science, Science.

Obviously, and if any one of them is inaccurate the global average is inaccurate. I'm afraid you can't hand wave this away.
 
Hi Furcifer, You missed:

[/SIZE]


What "According to the best‐sited stations, the diurnal temperature range in the lower 48 states has no century‐scale trend." from the abstract means is that
  • The data from the best sited stations
  • have a daily temperature range (i.e. day time minus night time)
  • that has no trend over the last century.
This says nothing about any trend in the actual temperatures or temperature anomalies read by the best sited stations.

And the best-cited stations aren't the issue. I don't see your point?
 
I'm afraid you don't understand how the scientific community works. The study is on the bias, the ramifications are another study altogether. Discovery happens in stages, not all at once.
You are wrong: I do understand how the scientific community works (having being part of it for a few years in my younger days!).
What I understand is that there is no mention of global temperatures in the paper and thus citing it in this thread is an error.

I'm
The paper on the lower 48 states doesn't, the bias is small. The effects of the bias in the Antarctic isn't known, and I'm not sure about the bias in the Arctic exactly.
And we are talking about
Analysis of the impacts of station exposure on the U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperatures and temperature trends
where the authors state that the results have little to no effect on the temperature trend.

Obviously, and if any one of them is inaccurate the global average is inaccurate. I'm afraid you can't hand wave this away.
I am not handwaving. A little bit of science: All measurements are inaccurate.
Hand waving would be assuming that papers describing inaccuracies in surface station measurement would decrease the measured global warming without producing any evidence that they would.

The simple fact is that the global temperatures from surface stations match the global temperatures from satellites. So they may be inaccurate but the trend is definite.
 
The 20th century average actually includes the years from 1880-1899 or thereabouts.
Good grief.

The only place I can find where NOAA bother to spell out what they mean by 20th century average is here:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/500mbexp.html#ytdhist

The anomaly value histograms show the departure in either temperature or precipitation for a given month from the 20th century (1901-2000) average for that month

(my bold).

What on earth made you think otherwise?

Your belief that a comparison of this month to the average of a long preceding period, whether that preceding period covers 100 years or 120 years, means that the difference can be expressed as an increase since the beginning of that period is just as inexplicable. A glance at the graph I pointed you to should have told you that temperatures have rise far more than 0.5C since 1880 - almost twice that, in fact.
 
You are wrong: I do understand how the scientific community works (having being part of it for a few years in my younger days!).
What I understand is that there is no mention of global temperatures in the paper and thus citing it in this thread is an error.

Special pleading by exclusion. That' original.

I am not handwaving. A little bit of science: All measurements are inaccurate.
Hand waving would be assuming that papers describing inaccuracies in surface station measurement would decrease the measured global warming without producing any evidence that they would.

Indeed you are, and did so by trying to infer that this was not part of the "global" average. Whether it does or doesn't contribute to that average remains to be seen.

The simple fact is that the global temperatures from surface stations match the global temperatures from satellites. So they may be inaccurate but the trend is definite.

Evidence? They obviously don't if there's a 10C bias. I don't think you realize the implications of what you're implying.
 
It isn't. The exponential growth in population in the areas like "Tornado Alley" also contributes greatly to the damage expenses.

As an example, the path of a tornado in might touch upon 500 homes in 1920, where now it could be upwards of 10000, perhaps even 50 000 homes.

If we presume the homes are completely destroyed the damage in 1920's dollars is maybe $2500x500= 1.25M which equals 14.5M in today's dollars. Today that same storm, along the same path could cause 2.5 Billlion perhaps even closer to 10 Billion.
Has tornado alley seen exponential growth in the last 10 years that might explain the 5 fold increase in losses seen in that timeframe that I mentioned in my last post. Your point is valid, but is not an explanation of recent increases in losses, or increased frequency of extreme weather events
 
A bigger portion of the problem is that "tornado alley" is much larger today than it was in 1920, and being frequented by more storms of greater average intensity.

What is the definition of "tornado alley". How can we measure the growth of "tornado alley"? Isn't "tornado alley" just a colloquial term?
 
Good grief.
What on earth made you think otherwise?

Your belief that a comparison of this month to the average of a long preceding period, whether that preceding period covers 100 years or 120 years, means that the difference can be expressed as an increase since the beginning of that period is just as inexplicable. A glance at the graph I pointed you to should have told you that temperatures have rise far more than 0.5C since 1880 - almost twice that, in fact.

What ?

Do you have any evidence for that ? Why would the 20th century average reach 20 years into the 19th century ?

Good grief indeed.

In scientific papers, if you wish to know where something like "The 20th Centrury average for combined global land and ocean surface temperature" comes from the best place to look is the "References"

The "References" are a handy feature in every scientific paper, they acknowledge and give credit to those who may have contributed to the paper, directly or indirectly.

In this case the "References" give us the following vital information:

Smith, T.M., and R.W. Reynolds (2005), A global merged land air and sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880-1997), J. Clim., 18, 2021-2036.

Smith, et al (2008), Improvements to NOAA's Historical Merged Land-Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis (1880-2006), J. Climate., 21, 2283-2293.

Smith, et al (2008), Improvements to NOAA's Historical Merged Land-Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis (1880-2006), J. Climate., 21, 2283-2293.

For those of us familiar with scientific papers we can immediately see the "20th Century Average" was first calculated for the years 1880-1997. This was done in 2005. Then in 2008 the final decade 1997-2006 was added.

For those of you less familiar with scientific papers you could have looked at the x-axis of the graphs in the paper, they clearly indicate the averages start in 1880 and end in 2006.
 
Has tornado alley seen exponential growth in the last 10 years that might explain the 5 fold increase in losses seen in that timeframe that I mentioned in my last post. Your point is valid, but is not an explanation of recent increases in losses, or increased frequency of extreme weather events

Yes, just find the anomalies in the record and apply the same basic formula. The change isn't linear, so a tripling in the 30's can easily represent more damage than a quintupling in the 1980's.
 
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