Moderated Global Warming Discussion

[BeAChooser]

Meanwhile ….

http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1968828/odd_weather_patterns_bring_summer_snow_to_australia/

20 December 2010, 08:05 CST

Australian citizens used to summer temperatures in the mid-80s this time of the year have been surprised by gusty winds and nearly a foot worth of Christmastime snows.
According to early morning AFP reports, residents in the eastern states of New South Wales and Victoria received four inches of snowfall. However, Bonnie Malkin of the Telegraph states that the snowfall is actually as much as 11 inches in some areas of New South Wales, and that temperatures in some areas have dipped to 39.2 degrees Fahrenheit--the lowest in more than five decades.

 

[quarky]

If the entire atmosphere was squeezed into a regular 2D grid, air molecules would be separated by a distance of 2.2 femtometers. If CO2 molecules alone were placed into a 2D grid they would be separated by 110 fm. Ozone molecules would be separated by a distance of 3500 fm(and yet there are no ozone deniers, or are there? ETA: and by that I don't mean people who deny the effect of CFCs, but people who deny that the ozone layer blocks a useful amount of short wavelength UV).

If the CO2 in Earth's atmosphere was concentrated at sea level, at standard temperature and pressure, it would be a 3.4 meter thick layer and ozone only 3 mm.

In 2d, there is no depth; hence, no molecules.

 

[BenBurch]

In 2d, there is no depth; hence, no molecules.

No depth in his analysis, either.

 

[Puppycow]

You seem to be missing some zeros there: 50ng/kg would be 50:1000000000000. But wikipedia suggests it's estimated to be more like 1ng/kg, i.e., 1:1000000000000, with 50ng (not per kg) being the approximate total does for an (unspecified) monkey.

That's odd. Don't people inject it into their bodies on purpose for various medical and cosmetic reasons?

 

[Puppycow]

An increase of 1 % in the atmospheric O2 would kill us all. Some stuff is delicately balanced.

Really?

 

[Pixel42]

When you look at the size of the grid and the tiny additions made, it seems counter-intuitive that the extra 1 or 2 squares in 10000 could be responsible for incinerating the Earth.

The atmosphere is about 80% nitrogen and less than 1% water vapour. Does that mean that nitrogen has 80 times more effect on the climate than water vapour? Ponder that for a moment, and you'll understand why your intuition may be misleading you.

All the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere put together come to less than 1% of it, but without them the average surface temperature of the planet would be about 30 degrees Celsius colder than it is. Ponder that too.

I see we've got the "it's unusually cold in a couple of places so AGW must be wrong" brigade out, btw. You'd think in a year in which global average temperatures were set to make it the warmest (or at least equal warmest) year on record they'd be too embarrassed to try that one, but apparently not.

 

[BenBurch]

That's odd. Don't people inject it into their bodies on purpose for various medical and cosmetic reasons?

Yes, in dilutions that give encouragement to Homeopaths...

 

[BIGuru]

Too many pages to go through...has anybody discussed about supposedly the Gulf Loop current is stopping? Could not find any real news - only some videos and items in discussion boards...

 

[Ladewig]

An increase of 1 % in the atmospheric O2 would kill us all. Some stuff is delicately balanced.

I think you are referring to long-term environmental changes and not immediate oxygen poisoning, but in ant case, could you elaborate? It might help me better understand how changes in CO₂ levels would affect the environment.

 

[davefoc]

Meanwhile ….

http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1968828/odd_weather_patterns_bring_summer_snow_to_australia/

You know, I used to think that the preponderance of evidence favored the idea that AGW was a significant problem, but now that BAC has posted this I've completely changed my mind. The whole AGW thing is a hoax promulgated by a conspiracy of climate scientists and trying to create work for themselves and left wing kook politicians trying to burden the world with their hippy eco notions. If this wasn't true how could it be unusually cold in Australia? Thanks for the link BAC.

 

[Mikemcc]

Then:

http://pajamasmedia.com/eddriscoll/2010/12/19/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past/

Now:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/7864521.stm

http://holykaw.alltop.com/great-satellite-photo-of-england-under-snow

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/12015518

http://www.anglotopia.net/anglophil...land-snow-day-in-england-snow-across-britain/

And? Your point is? One journalist who doesn't understand probability makes a statement that isn't supported by any study and there have been plenty of instances that they are wrong.

It's called climate change for a reason. While the globe is warming, that doesn't mean that Britian must follow that path at all times of the year. This year (and last) the cooling over the NE US and Europe has been due to blocking highs because the rest of the arctic has been so much warmer. If anything it shows that global warming is more likely to cause harsher winters in Europe, NE US and NW Russia.

 

[BeAChooser]

If anything it shows that global warming is more likely to cause harsher winters in Europe, NE US and NW Russia.

So you mean they were wrong when during the height of the Global Warming Hysteria they told the public that if something wasn't done, snow might be a thing of the past in the UK and elsewhere?

 

[CapelDodger]

Too many pages to go through...has anybody discussed about supposedly the Gulf Loop current is stopping? Could not find any real news - only some videos and items in discussion boards...

From what I've seen it's much too early to make a call on this one. Does bear watching, though.

 

[CapelDodger]

I see we've got the "it's unusually cold in a couple of places so AGW must be wrong" brigade out, btw. You'd think in a year in which global average temperatures were set to make it the warmest (or at least equal warmest) year on record they'd be too embarrassed to try that one, but apparently not.

I don't find it surprising myself. This is the best time of year they've got, what with winters where they live still being cold (sometimes as cold as they used to be thirty years ago) and Arctic sea-ice increasing.

Arctic sea-ice is increasing, isn't it? Given that the world is so cold right now it surely must be. And that's yet another final nail in the AGW coffin.

 

[macdoc]

This year (and last) the cooling over the NE US and Europe has been due to blocking highs because the rest of the arctic has been so much warmer. If anything it shows that global warming is more likely to cause harsher winters in Europe, NE US and NW Russia.

fancy that - just what the scientists said...

Atmosphere​

J. Overland1, M. Wang2, and J. Walsh 3​

1NOAA, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA
2Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
3International Arctic Research Center, Fairbanks, AK​

October 14, 2010​

Summary
While 2009 showed a slowdown in the rate of annual air temperature increases in the Arctic, the first half of 2010 shows a near record pace with monthly anomalies of over 4°C in northern Canada. There continues to be significant excess heat storage in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer due to continued near-record sea ice loss. There is evidence that the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere in fall is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes. Winter 2009-2010 showed a new connectivity between mid-latitude extreme cold and snowy weather events and changes in the wind patterns of the Arctic; the so-called Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern.
The annual mean air temperature for 2009 over Arctic land areas was cooler than in recent years, although the average temperature for the last decade remained the warmest in the record beginning in 1900 (Fig. A.1). The 2009 average was dominated by very cold temperatures in Eurasia in February (the coldest of the decade) and December, while the remainder of the Arctic remained warm (Fig. A.2). The spatial distribution of annual temperature anomalies for 2009 has a pattern with values greater than 2.0°C throughout the Arctic, relative to a 1968–96 reference period (Fig. A.3). These anomalies show the major feature of current Arctic conditions, where there is a factor of two (or more) amplification of air temperature relative to lower latitudes.



and further


Winter 2009-2010 showed a major new connectivity between Arctic climate and mid-latitude severe weather, compared to the past. Figure A7a shows normal early winter atmospheric conditions with low geopotential heights of constant pressure surfaces over the Arctic (purples). These fields indicate the tendency of wind patterns: winds tend to blow counter clockwise around the centers of lower heights, parallel to the height contours. In Figure A7a for example, winds tend to blow from west to east, thus separating cold arctic air masses from the regions further south.
In December 2009 (Fig. A7b) and February 2010 (Fig. A7c) we actually had a reversal of this climate pattern, with higher heights and pressures over the Arctic that eliminated the normal west-to-east jet stream winds. This allowed cold air from the Arctic to penetrate all the way into Europe, eastern China, and Washington DC. As a result, December 2009 and February 2010 exhibited extremes in both warm and cold temperatures with record-setting snow across lower latitudes. Northern Eurasia (north of 50° latitude to the Arctic coast) and North America (south of 55° latitude) were particularly cold (monthly anomalies of -2°C to -10°C). Arctic regions, on the other hand, had anomalies of +4°C to +12°C. This change in wind directions is called the Warm Arctic-Cold Continents climate pattern. The most extreme winter (December, January, February) Arctic high-pressure event in 145 years of the historical record occurred in Winter 2009-2010.

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/


MUST be a conspiracy get out the tin hats right quick

 

[lomiller]

Too many pages to go through...has anybody discussed about supposedly the Gulf Loop current is stopping? Could not find any real news - only some videos and items in discussion boards...

It depends. The Gulf current is a wind driven effect and since the prevailing winds that cause it are ultimately caused by the spin of the earth. IOW the Gulf Stream shutting down simply isn’t possible.

What can happen is that if the salinity of the water in the arctic decreases the point at gulf stream subsides (sinks into the deep ocean) can move southward. Were this to happen much of northern Europe and North America currently warmed by these waters would instead be cooled by arctic waters.

This is one of the leading candidates for the sharp cooling event called the Younger Dryas that occurred about 13000 years ago. In that case it’s believed that a freshwater inland sea formed by melting glaciers was released in a massive flood. While it’s conceivable that such a sea could form in Greenland as the glaciers there melt it would take a long time so even if we get a similar thing happen from current warming it won’t occur any time soon.

 

[lomiller]

So you mean they were wrong

Who is "they"?

 

[macdoc]

Do you understand the concept of "might"

snow might be a thing of the past in the UK and elsewhere?

Climate change indicates more extreme weather more often and does in no preclude cold incursions from continental highs.

There is little sunlight mid continent and if the high stalls it gets colder and colder.....that set of physics remains as long as the earth is tilted.

When the tilt and the elliptical orbit distance coincide then that is the coolest portion of the Milankovitch cycles..

Milankovitch Theory describes the collective effects of changes in the Earth's movements upon its climate, named after Serbian civil engineer and mathematician Milutin Milanković, who worked on it during First World War internment. Milanković mathematically theorised that variations in eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession of the Earth's orbit determined climatic patterns on Earth.
The Earth's axis completes one full cycle of precession approximately every 26,000 years. At the same time the elliptical orbit rotates more slowly. The combined effect of the two precessions leads to a 21,000-year period between the seasons and the orbit. In addition, the angle between Earth's rotational axis and the normal to the plane of its orbit, obliquity, moves from 22.1 degrees to 24.5 degrees and back again on a 41,000-year cycle; currently, this angle is 23.44 degrees and is decreasing

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

At this point tho...we have either delayed or cancelled at least the smaller ice ages...uncertainty about the triple witching point as we are mid point of the 41k cycle.

Some small benefit we were tipping slowly to another ice age...that's on hold

 

[CapelDodger]

What can happen is that if the salinity of the water in the arctic decreases the point at gulf stream subsides (sinks into the deep ocean) can move southward. Were this to happen much of northern Europe and North America currently warmed by these waters would instead be cooled by arctic waters.

As I understand it the moderating influence of the Atlantic on European climate is predominantly due to thermal inertia of the ocean. Heat transported in the water is actually a small component.

This moderating influence only operates because of the prevailing Westerlies, which is what these blocking highs mess up. We lose all the moderating influence and become subject to the continental climate of Eurasia. Which is to say, this is as bad as it gets.

At least it's moderated by AGW, which has raised the baseline temperature. Things could have been worse.

 

[macdoc]

Continental highs also work to warm when the season reverses....44 degrees last summer set all time records for Russia.

Indeed the change in wind patterns with an open and warming Arctic ocean will bring some very scary extremes.

Wind patterns are changing at the antipodes as well.

[QUOTE]Antarctic penguin colonies threatened by changing climate

DOWNLOAD AUDIO Nov 13, 2010

Researchers predict serious consequences for large Antarctic penguin colonies as the climate changes. In just a few decades, ice needed for nesting and feeding will be unavailable. Joellen Russell explains the changes in train as winds and ocean currents move, as air temperatures swing, at times hotter, at other times colder and as ocean chemistry changes from an equilibrium position which has allowed life to flourish.[/QUOTE]
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/scienceshow/stories/2010/3065125.htm

our impact on the ozone...another Anthro climate impact....who knew thos little cans of hairspray and deodorant would be so deadly has also shifted the wind patterns

Good article here

http://andyrussell.wordpress.com/20...te-change-the-exception-that-proves-the-rule/