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Moderated Global Warming Discussion

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Well, humanity can stand some global warming. Another ice age, or worse yet, a snowball earth, is what we should really be concerned with.

Given that the next glaciation isn't due for thousands of years, whereas AGW is already having an impact, why does it concern you so?

One gets alot of press, the other does not. That does not mean one is more deadly just because everyone talks about it.

Most people don't talk about the weather in thousands of years, but they do talk about the weather yesterday, today and in the foreseeable future. The price of food comes up quite often as well, especially when it rises.

Better yet, the current greenhouse is PREVENTING another ice age.

Which would otherwise happen in thousands of years. Well, at least people then will know how to prevent it, they'll have experimental evidence from this period to go on.
 
Our best model for action....

November 8, 2010
A Novel Tactic in Climate Fight Gains Some Traction

By JOHN M. BRODER

WASHINGTON — With energy legislation shelved in the United States and little hope for a global climate change agreement this year, some policy experts are proposing a novel approach to curbing global warming: including greenhouse gases under an existing and highly successful international treaty ratified more than 20 years ago.

The treaty, the Montreal Protocol, was adopted in 1987 for a completely different purpose, to eliminate aerosols and other chemicals that were blowing a hole in the Earth’s protective ozone layer.
But as the signers of the protocol convened the 22nd annual
meeting in Bangkok on Monday, negotiators are considering a proposed expansion in the ozone treaty to phase out the production and use of the industrial chemicals known as hydrofluorocarbons or HFCs The chemicals have thousands of times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide, the most prevalent greenhouse gas.
more
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/09/s...al.html?_r=1&ref=global-home&pagewanted=print
 
This is a snip from a good article cited below.

The second argument is what's known as an arguement from incredulity. The trend looks so small, 0.8oC over 100 years, when the temperatures fluctuate 10's of degrees in a single 24 hr period, more than 100 degrees C 70 degrees C summer to winter in some places. But that does not mean one's incredulous intuition is right! Any scientist involved in the study of ecosystems will tell you how incredibly sensitive some organisms can be to tiny changes in their environment, it is the opposite of inconceivable that the entire biosphere will be similarily vulnerable. But for me the strongest evidence that small fluctuations can have tremendous impact comes from the ice core and sediment records of the glacial/interglacial cycles. Here we can see that the difference between the climate the globe has today and one where kilometre thick ice sheets extended well into the continental US is a mere 5oC in the global average temperature! 5 degrees, heck a good Chinook wind could make the temperature go up 4 times that between the time I left for school as a boy in Alberta and the time I got home. But when you are talking about climate, and not weather, 5oC is, apparently, huge.
Yet the MIT scenarios range as far as 10 degree C in worst case scenario..
http://www.globalwarmingisreal.com/...imate-change-is-going-to-be-twice-as-extreme/
.with 4 degrees almost a certainty given our inaction.
http://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/2010/11/global_and_seasonally_averaged.php#more

It's a good read otherwise as well...
 
"Sides" may be a misnomer as it usually refers to two distinct parties. I think there are several "sides" each with it's own vested interest in how things proceed.

Lewis may have come off a little strong, but the APS seems rather naive in its response. There's a lot of money going into renewable energy sources and technology that physicists certainly benefit from.

I'm more curious what exactly he's referring to as a pseudoscience.

There may be a physicist here and there who earns a baseline salary from someone in relation to an alternative energy project, but Physics in general is not profitting from these areas, and the individual physicists aren't being paid to support a particular aspect of questionable understanding or to confuse and distort science for political reasons, they are paid to help develop solar cell materials of higher efficiency and cheaper manufacture, or connected to university systems doing pure research into basic physical principles. Big difference.

As to the pseudoscience have you read the full letter?

His reasons are purely political and his entire diatribe is filled with innane political rhetoric and partisan confession from start to finish. He was a major figure in the politically motivated attempt to get the AIP to modify their position statement on climate change a while back, and just could not accept that the rest of the organization's members were not the partisan hacks that he himself admits to being.
http://thegwpf.org/ipcc-news/1670-hal-lewis-my-resignation-from-the-american-physical-society.html
 
Science is not a "side", and climate change is not so long-established that any interests are vested in it.

You may recall that closing the ozone-hole was going to cost "trillions of dollars", an oddly similar hyperbole to Hal Lewis's. CFC's were (mostly) discontinued, society soldiered on, and the hyperbolists involved proceeded unabashed to their next subect. Which, as it happens, was AGW.

No science doesn't have sides, but we have wildly varying responses to the climate change issue.

Do you believe quadrupling the price of electricity in NA will have any effect on climate change? What about cap and trade? Restructuring the current way we produce electricity so that 80%, 90%, 95% comes from renewable sources?

Can any concrete decisions be made based on this long term weather report we call AGW?
 
There may be a physicist here and there who earns a baseline salary from someone in relation to an alternative energy project, but Physics in general is not profitting from these areas, and the individual physicists aren't being paid to support a particular aspect of questionable understanding or to confuse and distort science for political reasons, they are paid to help develop solar cell materials of higher efficiency and cheaper manufacture, or connected to university systems doing pure research into basic physical principles. Big difference.

At one point in my University more than half of the researchers were employed in fuel cell development. A few other in thin films and battery development. I wouldn't say this is typical of all Universities, but I think you'd be hard pressed not to find physics research being funded by companies heavily invested in energy technology.

When a guy like Lewis, whose been in the game all of his life says there's money to be made, I'm sorry but I don't dismiss him as senile.
 
No science doesn't have sides, but we have wildly varying responses to the climate change issue.

Do you believe quadrupling the price of electricity in NA will have any effect on climate change?

that depends are talking about taxing electricity, or are you talking about taxing the waste product some forms to electrical generation produce?

The first discourages the excessive and inefficient usage of electricity but adds a lot to the costs of every product and service which requires electricity, and does so regardless of the source of its generation. While I wouldn't be completely opposed to a fractional tax on electrical usage if the tax was lock-boxed to R&D for efficiency in production and distribution. But I'm really not interested in taxing electricity or the products and services that require electricity in their production, all I want to see is the people choosing to generate electricity via a method that dumps previously sequestered carbon into the atmosphere, pay an appropriate price for the damages they are creating due to those choices. If that makes it unprofittable to do business in that manner, then my goal is accomplished.

What about cap and trade?

All I can give you are my personal considerations:

First and foremost, it is better and preferrable to "business as usual," but only marginally, and is incapable of ultimately achieving the necessary goals.

At best, it should be considered a temporary stop-gap method of gaining some handle on the problem, while a more precise and long-term set of processes and procedures (taxes, regulations, incentives, and bipartisan administration and evaluation) are established to actually and appropriately respond to the problems we face going into the future, both internally and in international cooperations and treaty. If enacted it should sunset no later than a decade (5 years at a time would be better). It is just too open to the potential for abuse and gaming while incapable of actually addressing the problem, to allow it to exist until those potentials are realized.

Restructuring the current way we produce electricity so that 80%, 90%, 95% comes from renewable sources?

100% is the goal, but if atmospheric composition could be brought back to pre-1945 levels, and we could maintain our emissions to stay in balance with the natural sink/sequestration rate, I have no problem with limited fossil fuel usage (probably something along the lines of 5-10% of current annual global usage).

Can any concrete decisions be made based on this long term weather report we call AGW?

Of course, this isn't a weather report, but even when you get a weather report telling you there is a 95%+ chance of thunderstorms the next day, it's rather foolish not to prepare for bad weather before you head out the next morning, especially if its already cloudy and the wind is gusting.
 
No science doesn't have sides, but we have wildly varying responses to the climate change issue.

One response being denial that there's even an issue.

Do you believe quadrupling the price of electricity in NA will have any effect on climate change?

I don't do belief. The price of electricity in Timbuctoo has no bearing on the science.

What about cap and trade? Restructuring the current way we produce electricity so that 80%, 90%, 95% comes from renewable sources?

I dunno. Don't care either.

Can any concrete decisions be made based on this long term weather report we call AGW?

I've made my own decisions.

With "long-term weather report" you're really still hoping this isn't going to happen, aren't you? That maybe the science really is all wrong, and there's actually an unrecognised physical principle that only manifests in Earth's climate, just as Dark Matter only manifests in the shaping of galaxies and galaxy clusters.

There is no such principle, but rest easy, because that bold statement can never be proved. You can always cling to the hope (which is one step removed from "belief") that there is, and any day now it will go into reverse.

And whatever does happen you can believe that cap-and-trade in the US would have made matters no better, if not worse. That's the beauty of hypotheticals. Me, I'm just kicking back watching the train-wreck.
 
Can any concrete decisions be made based on this long term weather report we call AGW?

nice try - weather is transient - climate is not...this is a science forum not a one liners meet up.
Just who is WE....you and Anthony Watts perhaps??

Yes concrete decisions are being made tho not near fast enough.

It's getting warmer
we're responsible
decisions on how to approach the problems that reality engnders must be made...


are you going to deny that we are in a rapidly warming climate

you do like to dodge the issue and then slide in the little bits of denier nonsense....guess the energy biz you are in is up for review..
gonna answer a straight forward question?.:rolleyes:
 
No science doesn't have sides, but we have wildly varying responses to the climate change issue.


None of which has any bearing on the validity of the scientific evidence presented which demonstrats AGW.

One can accept the evidence demonstrating the existence of a problem while still rejecting the proposed solutions to the problem.
 
nice try - weather is transient - climate is not...this is a science forum not a one liners meet up.

On the contrary, AGW is very transient. The only thing that changes faster is the weather.

are you going to deny that we are in a rapidly warming climate

No.

you do like to dodge the issue and then slide in the little bits of denier nonsense....guess the energy biz you are in is up for review..
gonna answer a straight forward question?.:rolleyes:

This is just more rhetoric. I haven't dodged anything, heck I wasn't even asked a question. :boggled:
 
At one point in my University more than half of the researchers were employed in fuel cell development. A few other in thin films and battery development. I wouldn't say this is typical of all Universities, but I think you'd be hard pressed not to find physics research being funded by companies heavily invested in energy technology.

When a guy like Lewis, whose been in the game all of his life says there's money to be made, I'm sorry but I don't dismiss him as senile.

More self-serving and aggrandizing than senile, but I'd be more than willing to examine any empiric evidences you have or can locate that support your, or Mr. Lewis's assertions,...especially given the nature of a guy like Lewis and the reputation he has built for himself over the last decade or so.
 
More self-serving and aggrandizing than senile, but I'd be more than willing to examine any empiric evidences you have or can locate that support your, or Mr. Lewis's assertions,...especially given the nature of a guy like Lewis and the reputation he has built for himself over the last decade or so.

Just a note, I did read the entire letter and didn't find much to support the claim of pseudoscience.

That's why the APS counter regarding the science of CO2 in the atmosphere seemed off base. Unless he's off his rocker I doubt that's what he was referring to. Like you said, he doesn't seem senile in the letter.

If I had to speculate I'd guess he was referring to the doomsday predictions and the foolish sense of urgency with which some proponents approach the topic. I'm not sure, but I suspect the book he mentions may have more details in these regards.
 
Originally Posted by macdoc
you do like to dodge the issue and then slide in the little bits of denier nonsense....guess the energy biz you are in is up for review..
gonna answer a straight forward question?.:rolleyes:

This is just more rhetoric. I haven't dodged anything, heck I wasn't even asked a question. :boggled:
Oh?

who is we??

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Can any concrete decisions be made based on this long term weather report we call AGW?

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Edited by arthwollipot: 
Edited for moderated thread - please keep your exchanges civil.


On the contrary, AGW is very transient. The only thing that changes faster is the weather.

care to defend that and the original thesis that AGW is akin to weather ?

and answer the question who WE is -

You make a statement in a moderated science thread - support it - you've been asked a straight forward question, not a rhetorical one.
 
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Of course there is money to be made in green tech. Just like there is money to be made strip-mining WV for coal.

As a casual observer I have to question why when the topic of money and funding comes up it's only ever about the petro-chem companies funding bunk research. The first time someone suggests the pro-AGW side is funding bunk science he gets dismissed as senile.
 
If I had to speculate I'd guess he was referring to the doomsday predictions and the foolish sense of urgency with which some proponents approach the topic.

By "foolish sense of urgency", are you expressing your own opinion or just your interpretation of Hal Lewis? Myself, I don't think Lewis exxplicitly limited his comments to "some proponents" (of established science, presumably). You, on the other hand, do.

Do you feel that a sense of urgency vis-a-vis AGW is foolish?

I'm not sure, but I suspect the book he mentions may have more details in these regards.

No doubt you also suspect that it's complete garbage, since you have an open mind. Read it and weep.
 
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