Moderated Global Warming Discussion

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Please, I beg of you, successfully refute this statement:

If the consensus of Climate Change Research reversed, and it were asserted the earth was not in danger from AGW, the majority of funding toward Climate Change would quickly end and the researchers would have to find a new line of work.

Show me a field of research where it's been so well funded due to fear and gloom and doom stories- and if the scare ended so does the money.

Tosh, the person overturning it would earn a Nobel and there would be a huge program tofind out what was 'really causing the observed warming. Most of the money spent on climate research is spent on satellites, the UAH and RSS programs, grace, cryostat and the host of others. Each of those programs feed that cash back to the companies building the satellites and launchers, running the launch facilities and ground stations.
It doesn't "prove" anything, but it's common sense business migrates to where it has little regulation. It also doesn't take a deep analysis to see that the Chinese have advanced their industrialization in leaps and bounds. Maybe you can't pin this on Kyoto but this is an indicator of what will happen when you implement regulations on industrialized nations you don't on third world countries.

As for the implied "the US didn't sign on so that's the problem" feast on this:

[qimg]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6b/CO2_emissions_China_USA_1990-2006.svg[/qimg]

Of course EVERYone has a "right" to industrialize.... but the planet has already been damaged to the point of no return by those that are. There is no luxury of allowing MORE to do so and if you say they should then your agenda is more global socialism than saving the planet. Admit it or stop BSing us you care about the planet.
Feel free to lead from the front in enforcing your opinion on them.
Okay so you just further validated it. Indulging your own self loathing and guilt over being a "have" is more important than stopping global warming.
Nice try at an ad hom, a bit OTT though.
So that's twice now you flamed me, calling me a crackpot. I do believe there are rules against that here, please refer to them if you have not already. It's not necessary if your arguments are sound, and if you're just trying to annoy me you can do so with those arguments. I'm pretty sure I annoyed you quite well by now without a single ad hominem to do so.
Paranoia too, well done for a spectacular bite.
 
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r-j, there are valid trends in the graphs over > 20 year periods

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=1038&pictureid=7585

Is that valid? Does it show a trend for the US that August temperatures are rising? If not, why?
Yes, that is a valid graph.
Yes, it it shows a rising trend.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=1038&pictureid=7581

Does that show that over the last hundred years, winter temperatures in Florida have become colder? If not, why?
Yes, it it shows a falling trend.

It's not like the questions are hard to follow. Why all the evasion?
There has been no evasion. There has been a lack of understanding on your part. That lack has lead you to once again ask rather ignorant questions as above.

Once more time, r-j:
Any graphs of temperatures over a period of more than 20 years (30 years is better though) that have trend lines are "valid" (the trends are statistically significant).
It is even better if you use a tool that calculates the actual statistical significance of the trend. Then you discover that some climate datasets have statistically significant trends over the last decade.
 
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Please, I beg of you, successfully refute this statement:

If the consensus of Climate Change Research reversed, and it were asserted the earth was not in danger from AGW, the majority of funding toward Climate Change would quickly end and the researchers would have to find a new line of work.


Research will occur where there is interesting things to discover, why do you want to dictate who gets to research what?


P

Show me a field of research where it's been so well funded due to fear and gloom and doom stories- and if the scare ended so does the money.

First you need to show us your evidence climate science is particularly well funded.

P

It doesn't "prove" anything, but it's common sense business migrates to where it has little regulation. It also doesn't take a deep analysis to see that the Chinese have advanced their industrialization in leaps and bounds. Maybe you can't pin this on Kyoto but this is an indicator of what will happen when you implement regulations on industrialized nations you don't on third world countries.


The US produces 2.5-3 times as much CO2 per person as China. If anything it's you advocating China face more stringent regulations.


P

Of course EVERYone has a "right" to industrialize.... but the planet has already been damaged to the point of no return by those that are. There is no luxury of allowing MORE to do so

So you want some form of global command economy that dictates how people do business, what they can make and what they can consume. Sorry to inform you command economies died out with the break up of the Soviet Union and they never really worked very well.


and if you say they should then your agenda is more global socialism than saving the planet. Admit it or stop BSing us you care about the planet.

Please take your conspiracy theories to the CT forum.


re: socialism



P

So that's twice now you flamed me, calling me a crackpot. I do believe there are rules against that here, please refer to them if you have not already.

All I did was ask you to tell us specifically which arguments you found convincing because all I saw was unconvincing crackpot style arguments.



P

It's not necessary if your arguments are sound

What argument? You have even told which of the arguments in that thread you are presenting, how can I argue against it until you do?

P

I'm pretty sure I annoyed you quite well by now without a single ad hominem to do so.

Amused would be a better description than annoyed.

Interesting that you would admit that you are posting to annoy rather than make an argument, I guess it explains the low signal to noise in your posts. This too, I find amusing for the time being though I'm sure I eventually get bored with you.
 
Is there any one site that actually concentrates on just the science of the subject of AGW and ....
Skeptical Science (run by scientists)
Scientific skepticism is healthy. Scientists should always challenge themselves to improve their understanding. Yet this isn't what happens with climate change denial. Skeptics vigorously criticise any evidence that supports man-made global warming and yet embrace any argument, op-ed, blog or study that purports to refute global warming. This website gets skeptical about global warming skepticism. Do their arguments have any scientific basis? What does the peer reviewed scientific literature say?

RealClimate (run by real climate scientists!)
RealClimate is a commentary site on climate science by working climate scientists for the interested public and journalists.
 
Yes, that is a valid graph.
Yes, it it shows a rising trend.
Of course it does. I haven't been asking you (and anyone else) about what is a trend, but what you would accept as a valid graph.

Yes, it it shows a falling trend.
of course it does, which was why it was so priceless to see that, and all the others, dismissed as insignificant, or an anomaly, cherry picking, anything other than simply accepting it represents a factual record of what has been measured.

There has been no evasion.
Utter nonsense. I even predicted exactly what happened after I pointed out that the NCDC data showed clearly where winters are trending colder. Every trend tht showed cooling was declared meaningless.

Any graphs of temperatures over a period of more than 20 years (30 years is better though) that have trend lines are "valid" (the trends are statistically significant).
Finally, somebody answered the question. I knew it would eventually happen. Thanks.

It is even better if you use a tool that calculates the actual statistical significance of the trend. Then you discover that some climate datasets have statistically significant trends over the last decade.
I was the one that posted a link to skepticalscience and their trend generator, along with examples of the data it generates. I used a short time period to illustrate that trends that show warming are not argued against, even when they are very short.

What has been lacking, is an explanation of why people reject data. The strawmen are abundant, but the science is scarce.

And, as pixel pointed out, in some cases you can create all kinds of trends by picking the start date to change what is considered "the trend". This all began with my posting links to two different "papers", that had completely different goals.

I noted the one that showed cooling used a short time period. The one that showed warming used a fraud by picking the coldest point in over a hundred years to start the trend line.

Reality, as we saw in the later graphs, is not that simple.
 
Tosh, the person overturning it would earn a Nobel and there would be a huge program tofind out what was 'really causing the observed warming.

AS you could not reverse the consensus on AGW without proving what WAS causing the warming, your refutation fails.
 
your trend was dismissed because it is a small Region and you want it to mean more that it actually does.
More fraud and nonsense. We were discussing Florida, I showed how over a long time period the winters were colder, and how a short term trend showed a reversal of the warming trend since the seventies.

When Illinois came up, we saw that a hundred years showed cooling, but a shorter time period showed slight warming, but we never finished examing why the winters there are colder.

Tenn and Kentucky came up because of quarky, and surprisingly showed colder winters, if you used a hundred years of data. The short term trends also showed colder winters, but as was noted, that sort of trend could be changed by picking the start date. A twenty year trend shows colder winters, a thirty year shows no trend, but a 40 year (starting 1973) shows warming winters.

Fun with cherry picking 101

I showed how the corn and soy belt could be used to see warmer winters, much warmer springs, but no increase in summer or fall.

None of it can be used to make claims about global temperatures, but it's interesting that some areas reflect the same sort of graph we see with the worldwide average.

US climate Divisions close to Canada can be used to see the drastic warming trend for Canada.

States with maritime climates show a different sort of trend.

What is obvious is that the "climate change" we have been measuring is quite different for different areas of the US. Colder winters, especially where they show up, was not predicted by the models or the publications warning us of the coming disaster.

Ignoring the facts isn't science. Nor is all the personal nonsense we see daily here. Trying to smear somebody because you don't like the facts isn't going to sway anyone. The people who agree with you might laugh and gibber about, but anyone on the fence might think you are acting like fools.
 
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Research will occur where there is interesting things to discover, why do you want to dictate who gets to research what?




First you need to show us your evidence climate science is particularly well funded.

So you can't refute it but you'll slyly try to pervert the question. Climate CHANGE research seeks only to prove the climate is changing, and has only been funded because of scare tactics. You cannot prove this is not the case.

These scientists have suddenly become important, people pay attention to what they say. Their work became significant. Along with being well funded, these things become very attractive to anyone. Most entered the field trying to prove humans were harming the planet, they may even hold environmentalism as their religion.
In short, their minds were made up before they even did the research. Anyone who believed the climate wasn't changing would never enter the field. Yes science can be tainted by personal bias. It means you only seek one conclusion.
Do you go to a church to see an objective answer if God exists? How many atheists or Satanists enter the seminary?


The US produces 2.5-3 times as much CO2 per person as China. If anything it's you advocating China face more stringent regulations.

Does the ecosystem care if it's per person or total?

So you want some form of global command economy that dictates how people do business, what they can make and what they can consume. Sorry to inform you command economies died out with the break up of the Soviet Union and they never really worked very well.




Please take your conspiracy theories to the CT forum.

How droll. Trying to label me a conspiracy theorist for pointing out how the self loathing global socialist ideology held by most leftists/AGW alarmists who are also strong environmentalists is only mucking things up.

Your agreement is hardly a prerequisite for it to be true, your own statements were sufficient to prove that. You implied if not directly stated that we could demand cutbacks from China only when their per capita emissions reached ours. Such a plan would be disastrous if the situation is as dire as claimed.

Oh and links to videos are rarely to argue or even educate, they are usually to divert the argument, sending people on wild goose chases, hoping they click a few more videos and forget where they were. Sorry I never go there, hope you didn't waste a lot of time finding that. Or actually.... don't care if you did.
 
You are just vomiting crap now and exposing your horribly poor grasp of how your planet works.

I don't really think anybody does, to be honest. Before I say anything further here, I want to divide this into four camps:

Climate alarmists
Climate scientists
Climate skeptics
Climate deniers

For climate alarmists, I think that is pretty straightforward. People who aren't necessarily speaking the truth or even really understand what is happening, don't even practice what they preach for the most part, and are basically just hell bent on getting their message across. Say Al Gore for example.

Climate scientists of course, those supporting the idea of being concerned over climate change and actually understanding the science behind it. By science of course, I mean the chemistry, meteorology, and oceanography.

Climate skeptics, same as the above, only those trying to quel concerns about it, while understanding the science behind it.

Climate deniers, who say there's no global warming at all.

And then there's me. I can't predict the climate with any degree of accuracy, nor have I done any original research. I'm at best an armchair scientist, so what comes from me may just be BS. That said, I have a take on the issue that I think will probably sit at odds with most of these other views.

I'm sure many here are familiar with the Pangaea theory. Long, long ago, when (literally) dinosaurs reigned the earth, nearly all of the landmass of earth was one big continent. At this time, due to the way the landmasses were formed, the climate was far too hot for the ice caps to exist at all. Meanwhile, oxygen content of the atmosphere was double what it is now, and more plant life existed than at any other point in history.

What many don't already know, is that this is destined to happen again. This is a theory that we call Pangea Ultima. According to this theory, the continents will stop moving in the direction they are moving, and then move back again to where they once were as the supercontinent called Pangea. Along with that comes, once again, a much hotter climate.

The point is, it doesn't matter if humanity exists or not. Global warming is happening, and will happen anyways. It will also probably get a lot cooler between now and then, and then hot, and then cool, etc. What I think gets most people is that they are too complacent in that the last 3,000 years, the climate has been relatively stable. I am a bit doubtful that it is mere coincidence that this stable period happens to coincide with the rise of civilization.

I'm not calling inevitable doom and gloom for humanity though. Far from it in fact.

The nice thing is that when (not if) these changes happen, we're actually shockingly resilient. Just to give you an idea, we can adapt to extreme environments that most of us consider inhospitable within a single generation. Case in point:

(can't post the link, sorry!)

Imagine that, Andean natives walking barefoot in biting ass cold temperatures with only 66% of the oxygen, and being perfectly comfortable. Yep, it happens.

As for myself: Where I live, the temperature is in the triple digits for about six months out of the year. I don't mind it at all, yet relatives who come visit whine all day about how hot it is.

Now when I tell most people about this, first they say "well yeah, bacteria can survive when it is hot..." But, while I'm sure that's true, very large animals thrived in those conditions as well.

Another argument I get is that it will cause mass relocation of populations which will cause all hell to break loose. I don't think that is true either; the temperature has been rising for a long time now, and people in the hottest regions of the planet haven't shown any indication of moving any time soon. They're more like me; they just adapt. There hasn't been any historical data to show that this has happened in the past either. In fact, the only climate related migrations that are known to have happened is when certain regions became too cold. For example, archeologists have found farms in places where today the temperature is so frigid that nothing can possibly grow there. I'd figure that if anything, warmer temperatures would mean increased farmland.

After those two arguments are exhausted, I get the argument that global warming would ruin the economy. I personally don't see that happening any worse than any other major event in recent history. But let's assume that to be the case for a minute. If the primary concern is the economy, then why are we considering putting caps on economic growth in order to stop global warming? We already know for certain that doing that will cause damage to the economy (if it doesn't grow, it stagnates - I don't think any economist would ever argue otherwise) but we don't have any guarantees of that happening with climate change.

I don't think anybody has any beef with the EPA, by the way. Yes, dumping hazardous chemicals or putting soot in the air is a bad thing. Even hardcore libertarians like Stossel support the EPA. (As a side note - I think when the president suggests that anybody wants dirty air and dirty water is just asinine. Being opposed to cap and trade doesn't equate to that at all.)

In case anybody hasn't noticed, I consider myself libertarian. Note the distinction between an anarchist and a libertarian. Libertarians are opposed to regulation in general, but will accept reasonable regulation. Regulations that make sugar expensive in the US compared to the rest of the world in order to "save jobs" so that we stick to HFCS are examples of unreasonable regulations. The EPA is a reasonable regulation. And while I'm probably what some consider a nut, I really don't care for Alex Jones and his crock of BS conspiracy theories.

---------------------

TL;DR: Keep london tidy, don't worry about global warming.
 
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There is a simple and real fact that the people who fear and hate coal don't know. It's a fact and it won't change.

A chunk of quality coal, the size of a man fist, in a modern engine, will produce more energy to do useful work, than a man can do in a day. Oil is the same sort of concentrated energy.

Must be super nano anthracite.
 
So you can't refute it but you'll slyly try to pervert the question.

That's not how it works, it's not up to me to refute anything. You presented the premise it's up to you to show it's true.

Climate CHANGE research seeks only to prove the climate is changing, and has only been funded because of scare tactics. You cannot prove this is not the case.

Don't be silly. First there is no such thing as climate CHANGE research only climate research, which like all research is done to understand the world around us. A good deal of climate research isn't even focused on present day climate.

In short, their minds were made up before they even did the research.

What's a pretty serious charge of academic malfeasance you are making. What evidence do you have to back it up and who in particular are you accusing?

Does the ecosystem care if it's per person or total?

I'm choosing per person because it seems the most fair to me, but if you think the US should have the same absolute CO2 limit as countries s with 1/20 the population I'm more then willing to hear your arguments that we should focus on a country's total CO2 emissions instead of it's per person emissions.

How droll. Trying to label me a conspiracy theorist for pointing out how the self loathing global socialist ideology held by most leftists/AGW alarmists who are also strong environmentalists

Yes, that would be an example of a conspiracy theory. please take it to a more appropriate forum.

You implied if not directly stated that we could demand cutbacks from China only when their per capita emissions reached ours. Such a plan would be disastrous if the situation is as dire as claimed.

Indeed it would be disastrous if China reached the current per capita CO2 emissions of the US. I'm not sure how that's an argument against the US cutting it's per capita CO2 emissions...

If you are arguing that the China should cut it's emissions in half and the US should cut it's emission by 80% so they are comparable I wouldn't object to the sentiment, but I'm a pragmatists and expecting the US to make such deep cuts is unrealistic.


Oh and links to videos are rarely to argue or even educate,

I disagree. In this case however the clip was included for entertainment value. It's very funny.
 
Why am I not surprised at the applause from the chew toy - a libby pontificating on an eon spanning view in a grandiose manner with not one shred of supported climate science engaged....yet you claim to be an "armchair scientist".

And how many here aren't? How many here have done original research on the matter, had it peer reviewed, and published to a reputable journal? What was your masters thesis on? What was your PhD thesis?

(By the way, I'm not sure if you caught the term given the ambiguity of your reply, but "armchair scientist" means not an actual scientist, rather somebody who sits on the sidelines and makes calls without actually having any experience.)

:dl:
Did you forget you were in a science forum where support for an "argument" is expected?

It wouldn't let me post any links if that's what you're asking.

Unlike the sanguine pair above...the insurance companies are significantly more informed and understand both the rather easily understood science of AGW and the consequences which unfold now which are indeed very complex.

That a libby and denier don't understand the way the atmosphere works is at this point in the knowledge ether wilfull or for a less salutary reason.

Swiss Re on the other hand - whose existent is based on reasonable, realistic risk assessment....they are very aware of the challenge and risks.

Their statement which could easily be directly addressed to the two of you..

They have billions of dollars on the line and they are very much aware of the cost of AGW to society.

Of course you could also include the US Military in those that think your view is complete nonsense.


I fail to understand how a libby could be so hypocritical as to exempt fossil fuel companies from bearing the downstream costs of their activities.....a reality they clearly understood in the min 90s according to their own scientists.

Instead, fronted by the likes of Koch and Exxon, the fossil fuel interests undertook to spend millions of dollars in a disinformation campaign that continues
....tainted Koolaid you are swallowing AD.

You're in a science forum here, back your views or end up dismissed as an ill-informed politicized crank.....the prospects are strong for the latter.

•••



oh my - my apologies....there are now three of you in the ******* wrong headed political ideologue column. Fresh chews.

Apparently it didn't occur to you that I'm neither in favor of nor against all of your arguments. (Probably more in favor of, actually, but I don't think you caught that one either.)

As for pontification...I rather like James Randi. He's the kind of guy who encourages thinking. But you neglected to do that while you were pontificating your position to me.
 
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Speaking of Randi
http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/806-i-am-not-qdenyingq-anything.html

He ran into the hyperstupid hysteria of alarmists quickly

But here are a couple of the typical negative comments I received, which are unfounded:
"Randi just came out against the science that indicates that Global Warming is happening, that it is man made, and that it will harm our biosphere (and is currently doing so)."
"I was also saddened by Randi siding with the GW denialists. He seems to have fallen for a number of logical fallacies, and apparently prefers self-deception and ignorance when it comes to this issue. Very, very sad."

those comments sounds a lot like the echo chamber of unscientific alarm that resounds here.
 
The notion that he doesn't practice what he preaches is baseless political propaganda. If you believe this to be true you should probably get your political information from sources that don't lie to you. This, however is a digression and really belongs in the politics forum.

Just a few pages back I provided a link showing that active climate scientists feel that Al Gore has presented an up to date reasonably accurate laymen's representation of the science. While I don't doubt there are some alarmists out there, in reality the science itself points to something alarming.

Well I didn't intend to make him the subject of my post, rather I was using him as an example. But just to reply to what you are saying, in his movie he made a bunch of no-no's when it came to compiling and interpreting his data. That's not to say nobody ever does this (Einstein fudged his data numerous times) but I don't think we should be making life altering decisions based on that. That aside, the man consumes more energy just for himself than nearly every other person on the planet, and then tells everybody else that it is important to reduce our consumption. Oh, and that we are already beyond the point of no return for planetwide disaster.

I'm not entirely convinced that he fully believes what he says. Either that or he believes that he is more important than everybody else because he is the "ultimate tool" for spreading the word, and so do his followers.

I assure you science extends well beyond those fields.

Of course, I'm just showing some examples of fields that I don't have any part in.

The problem is that there is little to nothing in the literature that disagrees with the basic scientific conclusions
- the earth is warming rapidly
- this is being cause by human activity, mainly the release of greenhouse gasses
- doubling atmospheric CO2 concentrations will lead to an ~3 deg C warming of the earth over the course of a centuries.
- the earth warmed perhaps as much as 6 degrees from the last glacial period but this took over 5000 years allowing time for ecosystems to adapt, something that is problematic is the earth is warming 50X faster.

All of the above contentions are fine, except the last one. We don't actually know the finely grained derivative of climate history. We have a pretty good idea of the overall picture, but you have to keep in mind that something like ice cores don't keep daily records of data, and under warming periods can even lose data.

Given that there is little in the scientific literature that doesn't support these, real skepticism about them is not possible IMO.

Never say that. It happens all the time that we have piles and piles of evidence that people take for granted, but meanwhile there are silent dissenters who we all dismiss as kooks, only to make a discovery one day that they were actually right all along. Most of the time, those guys are just kooks. But you really never know. You can't consider yourself to be much of a scientist or even a skeptic if you can't accept that something you hold dear to yourself as being true might actually be wrong.

Climate deniers take to many arguments to count. Just about the only thing they can agree on among themselves is that they don't want to do anything to address climate change.

Well, alluding to what Randi said recently, dictionaries don't define. That said, from my perspective, a climate denier will claim outright that there is no climate change. Your definition may differ.
 
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Proving a negative.

Claiming you aren't a CT while claiming there a conspiracy of self loathing global socialist ideology held by most leftists/AGW alarmists who are also strong environmentalists, that's just sad.

When one wants to attempt to discredit an issue he opposes, the easiest way is to call it "conspiracy theory".


Either that or understanding individuals with similar ideologies doing similar things is not a conspiracy is above your head?

And if you've got to put words in my mouth, as bolded above... back to kindergarten with you.
 
Speaking of Randi

He ran into the hyperstupid hysteria of alarmists quickly

those comments sounds a lot like the echo chamber of unscientific alarm that resounds here.

I never read that piece from Randi before. Anybody who knows me will probably tell you that my views are very much in line with his. Add that to the list of positions I agree with him on.
 
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