Global warming discussion IV

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The Atheist said:
Meanwhile, El Nino has brought the southern air up a notch in the winter, with record low temperatures recorded in July.

Having not had a strong El Nino for years, it now occurs to me that El Nino might speed the warming of Antarctica, especially the seas around it.
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everything I see, seems to indicate that el Nino's suppress Antarctic warming.

El Niño suppresses Antarctic warming
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2004GL020749/full

(from discussion)
...From 1971 to 2000 (Figure 4a) a statistically significant negative correlation between temperature in the Amundsen Sea and SOI can be observed. This suggests that during ENSO warm events (SOI < 0) temperatures in the Amundsen Sea region are warmer, and cooler during ENSO cold events. In contrast the western Ross Sea, including the MDV, is a distinct area where this relationship fails, and no significant correlation can be observed, suggestive of additional or different forces driving temperature variability in this region. Examining the correlations by decade, we find that during 1971–1980 the relationship is similar. During 1981–1990 decade the negative correlation in the Amundsen Sea persists, although its centre shifted further to the northwest. The Ross Sea region and West Antarctica now show a marginal significant positive correlation, indicating cooler temperatures during ENSO warm events. During the 1991–2000 decade, the centre of the Amundsen Sea correlation is shifted southeast, now also encapsulating the adjacent Marie Byrd Land in West Antarctica. The western Ross Sea region displays a highly significant positive correlation, indicating cooler temperatures during ENSO warm events. Together, Figure 4 shows that while the ENSO surface temperature correlation is variable in most regions in Antarctica, the relationship in the Amundsen Sea remains positive and is statistically significant during the last 30 years confirming previous studies [Kwok and Comiso, 2002a, 2002b; Carleton, 2003; Ribera and Mann, 2003; Turner, 2004]. The western Ross Sea, however, exhibits a positive correlation with ENSO at least since 1981. This is consistent with observations of ENSO-correlated increase in sea ice and meridional winds, accompanied by sea surface temperature cooling and lengthening of the sea-ice season in the western Ross Sea and opposing trends in the eastern Ross Sea since 1982 [Kwok and Comiso, 2002b]...(full paper at above link)
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Earth’s Most Famous Climate Scientist Issues Bombshell Sea Level Warning

The study—written by James Hansen, NASA’s former lead climate scientist, and 16 co-authors, many of whom are considered among the top in their fields—concludes that glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica will melt 10 times faster than previous consensus estimates, resulting in sea level rise of at least 10 feet in as little as 50 years.

One necessary note of caution: Hansen’s study comes via a nontraditional publishing decision by its authors. The study will be published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, an open-access “discussion” journal, and will not have formal peer review prior to its appearance online later this week. The complete discussion draft circulated to journalists was 66 pages long, and included more than 300 references. The peer review will take place in real time, with responses to the work by other scientists also published online. Hansen said this publishing timeline was necessary to make the work public as soon as possible before global negotiators meet in Paris later this year.
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http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slat...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Well that certainly qualifies as alarmist...but then perhaps.....
 
macdoc said:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slat...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Well that certainly qualifies as alarmist...but then perhaps.....
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Dang it, ninja'd again!

:)

Seriously though, many if not most, of the paleo-climatologists have been saying about 3 meters by ~2100 for most of the last decade, based primarily on short/intermediate equilibration rates in the geologic record, so it shouldn't be a surprise to any who are familiar with those records.

BTW here's a popular science link to a traditionally conservative science perspective of the issue - "Prediction of Rapid Sea Level Rise Won’t Change Global Climate Talks" - http://news.nationalgeographic.com/...l-rise-climate-change-global-warming-science/

Of course, Hansen has been right more often than the more conservative mainstream science perspective over the last few of decades, and his previous "alarmism" is generally reflective of the current modern mainstream science perspective.

for those interested a link to Hansen's publications/presentations page http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/
 
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I'm sort of curious as to what a thermohaline stoppage would entail.

IF the major heat pump from the tropics to the Arctic actually failed..would we have baked lower mid and tropical latitudes and frigid higher mid and Arctic regions without the equalizer?
 
macdoc said:
I'm sort of curious as to what a thermohaline stoppage would entail.

IF the major heat pump from the tropics to the Arctic actually failed..would we have baked lower mid and tropical latitudes and frigid higher mid and Arctic regions without the equalizer?
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Most of the reading I've done relating to the Atlantic thermohaline, circulations seem to indicate that a complete breakdown is unlikely. However, there have been some studies looking at slow downs and regional temporary breakdowns. the predominant effects are a slight cooling of the northern hemisphere some reduction in precipitation and increased sea level rise around the east coast of N.Am.. Most of my reading on the issue is dated, predominantly from last decade. I'll give a look and see what's available and more current.
 
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/comparing-el-nino-to-1997-19278

picture.php
 
I'm writing a briefing paper on marine conservation atm and came across this doozy of an event - a marine heatwave of 2°C above average that persisted for ten weeks:

https://theconversation.com/marine-heatwaves-threaten-the-future-of-underwater-forests-37154

The research I'm reading suggests that the event is especially significant because it seems to have resulted in a one-off shift in the tropical/temperate climatic boundary, with a pronounced and persistent tropicalisation of the ecosystem as a whole raft of tropical species increased the southward range. It completely wiped out vast areas of seagrass meadows, which reduced the temperate species relying on the habitat, and it looks increasingly like the areas that took a >90% hit in dieback with likely be colonised by the faster growing tropical seagrass species. All of the climate envelope modelling is based on gradual trend changes and don't account for sudden step changes like this. It's a particularly interesting event because while dieback events have been observed in other regions, they ecosystems have been under numerous anthropological stressors, whereas this is a clear example of an event caused solely by a dramatic warming of the waters. It's kind of staggering to think that hundreds of kilometres of coastal ecosystem could undergo such a dramatic shift in biodiversity patterns in just ten weeks :eek:
 
Some small mercy...

Carbon sink' detected underneath world's deserts
Date:
July 28, 2015
Source:
American Geophysical Union
Summary:

The world's deserts may be storing some of the climate-changing carbon dioxide emitted by human activities, a new study suggests. Massive aquifers underneath deserts could hold more carbon than all the plants on land, according to the new research.
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http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150728110539.htm
 
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