Global warming discussion III

[macdoc]

Temperature anomalies are warming faster than Earth's average, study finds
Date: December 9, 2014
Source: Indiana University
Summary:
It's widely known that the Earth's average temperature has been rising. But new research finds that spatial patterns of extreme temperature anomalies -- readings well above or below the mean -- are warming even faster than the overall average. It may seem counterintuitive that global warming would be accompanied by colder winter weather at some locales. But scientists say the observation aligns with theories about climate change, which hold that amplified warming in the Arctic region produces changes in the jet stream, which can result in extended periods of cold weather at some locations in the mid-northern latitudes.
more

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/12/141209101308.htm

Increased swings and roundabouts early costs of AGW

 

[macdoc]

The most common fallacy in discussing extreme weather events + Update
Filed under: Climate Science Communicating Climate statistics — stefan @ 25 March 2014

Does global warming make extreme weather events worse? Here is the #1 flawed reasoning you will have seen about this question: it is the classic confusion between absence of evidence and evidence for absence of an effect of global warming on extreme weather events. Sounds complicated? It isn’t. I’ll first explain it in simple terms and then give some real-life examples.

The two most fundamental properties of extreme events are that they are rare (by definition) and highly random. These two aspects (together with limitations in the data we have) make it very hard to demonstrate any significant changes. And they make it very easy to find all sorts of statistics that do not show an effect of global warming – even if it exists and is quite large.
.......


........
Yesterday the World Meteorological Organisation published its Annual Statement on the Climate, finding that “2013 once again demonstrated the dramatic impact of droughts, heat waves, floods and tropical cyclones on people and property in all parts of the planet” and that “many of the extreme events of 2013 were consistent with what we would expect as a result of human-induced climate change.”

With good physical reasons to expect the dice are loaded, we should not fool ourselves with reassuring-looking but uninformative statistics. Some statistics show significant changes – but many are simply too noisy to show anything. It would be foolish to just play on until the loading of the dice finally becomes evident even in highly noisy statistics. By then we will have paid a high price for our complacency.

- See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.ph...witcher=mobile&wpmp_tp=1#sthash.b3GuLB0E.dpuf

indeed.....are paying a high price for complacency....fossil GHG impact on global temperatures were understood clearly in 1995....instead of working to mitigate...the fossil fuel companies decided to pay millions to fnd a campaign of denial whicha few fools still seem to have a sentimental attachment too despite the fossil fuel companies themselves finlly fessing up to the reality and the risk.

We might have had a 20 year jump of getting to carbon neutral..

 

[bit_pattern]

Good piece from Slate

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_t...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

On Monday, the NOAA released a new report examining the origins of the weird weather that’s led to California’s drought—which, by one estimate, is the region’s worst in at least 1,200 years.

The NOAA study attempted to attribute a root cause to the lack of rainfall. Was it natural? Was it global warming? The results found that the main drivers were a mix of persistent Pacific Ocean temperature patterns and the randomness of the atmosphere, or “internal variability.” Some are taking this to mean that climate change didn’t significantly impact the drought.

“Nature, not climate change, blamed for drought,” said the San Francisco Chronicle. “California drought is said to have natural cause,” reported the New York Times. And USA Today said, “Causes of Calif. drought natural, not man-made: NOAA.”

But that interpretation is misleading.

<snip>

One of Gleick’s main criticisms of the NOAA study was that “they completely ignored the temperature question, which is by far the clearest signal.” He continued, “There’s just no dispute that temperatures globally are going up. There’s no dispute that temperatures regionally in California are going up. There’s no dispute that the last three years have been the hottest in the instrumental record [in California]. And, there’s no dispute that hotter temperatures increase water demand in California. The exact same drought with normal temperatures is not as bad.”

Basically, he says, “I think [the authors of the NOAA study] were answering correctly the wrong question.”

 

[Trakar]

When my worlds collide...

I have generally always lucked out with benefits when I find the connections between my interests. This time, perhaps, the benefits will go out to a much wider circle of individuals. The owner of the focus of my sports world has stepped up and offered his financial clout to help address the issue of climate change:

Paul Allen bankrolls federal lawsuit to limit coal mining
http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/...s-federal-lawsuit-to-limit-coal.html?page=all

...The lawsuit, filed Tuesday by Friends of the Earth and the Western Organization of Resource Councils against the Department of the Interior's Bureau of Land Management (BLM), is being completely financed by the Paul G. Allen Family Foundation.

In an opinion piece entitled "This land is our land" published by the Huffington Post Monday, Allen said he believes the BLM is not responding sufficiently to the threat of climate change.

"For the last three decades, the Bureau of Land Management has ignored the mounting data that greenhouse gas emissions are fundamentally changing our earth and our lives for the worse," Allen wrote. "It is time for our government leaders to make informed decisions on how to best manage our public resources to meet our nation's energy needs."...

Now that is a fiscally conservative move! We shouldn't be giving away the people's resources for pennies on the ton and then paying to clean up the mess those who make record profits from such windfalls, are dumping into our environment. Those who wish to profit from this nation's resources must pay the tab for cleaning up their own environmental mess out of the profits they earn.
Go Mr. Allen
Go 'Hawks!

 

[aleCcowaN]

2014 already the hottest year in record regarding sea surface temperatures, unless December anomalies are below -0.299°C what, in face of the anomalies for the first 10 days of December, needs the rest of the month to be colder than the first two decades of last century. About the record monthly sea surface temperature anomaly, the former monthly record from 1998 was already broken five times this year (Methodology from Kennedy, Rayner, Smith et al). It goes without saying that the warmest month in record regarding absolute sea surface temperature was July 2014,

I hope I don't need to add that these last monthly records remain the same while using a Julian calendar or even a Muslim one, not like the mythological "pause" 's which "unbeatable beginning" exists only using the Gregorian one, as I graphically showed time ago in these threads.

Simply a personal aside. My comment wasn't intended to start a divergent discussion, or argument, but I understand how a perspective which has been dutifully forged into a hammer can make the world seem full of nails.

C'mon! personal aside? really? don't play innocent. Your reply was just kicking the ball out through the safer part of the goal line. I suggest you to do what your mates do after my messages: changing the subject with some unrelated item within the topic.

 

[Trakar]

...C'mon! personal aside? really? don't play innocent. Your reply was just kicking the ball out through the safer part of the goal line. I suggest you to do what your mates do after my messages: changing the subject with some unrelated item within the topic.

I'm sorry that you perceive my comments in that manner, that is not, and has not been, how I intended them.

 

[Red Baron Farms]

The Guardian is reporting that Australia is now the worst ranked industrial nation for dealing with climate change (even lower than Saudi Arabia, which isn't ranked as an industrial nation...)

http://www.theguardian.com/environm...rforming-industrial-country-on-climate-change

Did the Aussies also repeal their carbon trading program at the same time as they got rid of their carbon pricing program? Hard to see how they could operate one without the other?

If so it is a sad day indeed, as Australia was and is a leader in carbon farming technology.

 

[macdoc]

Odd looking pause....no matter where you look but the Arctic Amplification is very obvious. Good interactive on the article - 6 maps over time from the beginning of the last century



http://warmingworld.newscientistapps.com

 

[lionking]

If you invest for the long haul, a well diversified, broad range "green" portfolio seems to perform pretty well, especially with an offset of select Munis. At least, my money seems to be earning money at a decent clip and this is fairly low risk (and the municipal bonds are tax-free).

Same in Australia. I'm changing my superannuation (personal pension) arrangements and the "green" option is out-performing all others, even "aggressive" portfolios.

 

[bit_pattern]

Same in Australia. I'm changing my superannuation (personal pension) arrangements and the "green" option is out-performing all others, even "aggressive" portfolios.

Word of advice, there's only one super fund that is not exposed to fossil fuels in any way whatsoever - even the good funds like Ethical Super have exposure through banks that they invest in. I'm loathe to give "advice" but the fund was set up by Simon Sheikh (ex-GetUp director and Greens candidate) - look into it if you think they're an attractive option.

 

[Fudbucker]

I live in Southern California. Looks like we're headed for a really wet December.

All hail the climate change gods!

 

[bit_pattern]

I live in Southern California. Looks like we're headed for a really wet December.

All hail the climate change gods!

The Pineapple Express is hardly a function of AGW.

And, at any rate, don't get too excited just yet - start at around the 8'35" mark

http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/sundayextra/correspondents/5962422

 

[macdoc]

Originally Posted by Fudbucker View Post
I live in Southern California. Looks like we're headed for a really wet December.

All hail the climate change gods!

You do understand that a hotter ocean....

means more water vapor in the atmosphere....and greater intensity in rain events ( well documented ).

••••

Japan declared an El Nino in effect -
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/10/us-elnino-japan-idUSKBN0JO0I620141210
maybe good news for California...not so good elsewhere on the planet - as with most major weather events these days...AGW has a role to play. It overlays natural cycles such as ENSO and winter rains in California....which has a very long way to go before the drought can be declared broken.
Getting seriously tired of high produce prices.

 

[aleCcowaN]

All hail the climate change gods!

You and your hail! It did a lot of damage here last Saturday

As a Californian you should be able to recognize a (Kelvin) wave trough and not try to surf it. Enjoy the "now, it seems to..." for the next 70-100 days but get some medicinal marijuana for your incense-burner just in case your gods send you a second crest next April.

Japan declared an El Nino in effect -
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/10/us-elnino-japan-idUSKBN0JO0I620141210
maybe good news for California...not so good elsewhere on the planet - as with most major weather events these days...AGW has a role to play. It overlays natural cycles such as ENSO and winter rains in California....which has a very long way to go before the drought can be declared broken.
Getting seriously tired of high produce prices.

Poppycock, as every combination that includes Reuters and Global Warming, what makes Fox News to look like a serious source.

I wonder what does have stupid pieces of news to do with a thread in a supposedly scientific forum devoted to scepticism.

What it's true (and "interesting and scientific", as robinson-j had said it) is that, according to the very JMA's dataset, 2014 is undoubtedly the hottest year in record. They have the most conservative dataset among the serious ones, yet the 12-month period Nov-13/Oct-14 broke previous records again, leaving far behind again the Sep-97/Aug-98 period, which had stood as the warm record for many a year.

The 12-month period ending November 2014 hasn't broken the previous record -though it's still above the 1997/8 precedent-. This December has to be an extraordinary cold month, and the next 17 days almost ice-age, for this year not to leave 1998 behind as the hottest calendar year in record, always according to the conservative JMA dataset (1998 was left behind years ago, according to other standard datasets).

So, 2014 is ending 0.25°C above the 1981-2010 average. For the moving average series, expect the anomalies to drop a bit until next March. From then on, two scenarios: the most probable involves new temperature records of a few hundredths more; the less probable involves a full-fledged Niño with ONIs above 1 -or even 1.5- during many months and every kind of record broken in a queue of events following 5 or 6 years. I hope this latter scenario won't be, but y'all know, global warming is a darn bitch.

 

[macdoc]

As usual Alex - if you want to dispute something ...then go argue with the source.
Your attitude gets really wearisome....that a national report from JMA is reported on....the reporting media does not matter unless they attempt to interpret it....your attitude is puerile at best.

El Niño Outlook
( December 2014 - June 2015 )

Last Updated: 10 December 2014

El Niño conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific, although the atmospheric conditions does not indicate clear features of El Niño events.
It is likely that El Niño conditions will continue through winter.
A weak El Niño event is considered to have persisted since the Northern Hemisphere summer.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html

Go tell them they are wrong....

A mild El Nino weather pattern has been in place in eastern NA for a while now and has been discussed here ...just was not declared. Now it has been declared by Japan but not others.

Do YOU have some source material for your commentary or are we expected to take your interpretation on faith?

 

[Arnold Martin]

You do understand that a hotter ocean....

means more water vapor in the atmosphere....and greater intensity in rain events ( well documented ).
.

Warmer oceans could mean more clouds blocking sunshine

Warmer oceans could mean more snow cover reflecting sunshine

Warmer oceans could provide more moisture to increase the volume of ice and snow in arctic and antarctic

 

[Trakar]

Warmer oceans could mean more clouds blocking sunshine

Warmer oceans could mean more snow cover reflecting sunshine

Warmer oceans could provide more moisture to increase the volume of ice and snow in arctic and antarctic

Instead of fantasizing, how about checking the mainstream science to find out how the system actually works instead of how you imagine it might work?

 

[bit_pattern]

Warmer oceans could mean more clouds blocking sunshine

Warmer oceans could mean more snow cover reflecting sunshine

Warmer oceans could provide more moisture to increase the volume of ice and snow in arctic and antarctic

So you accept that the oceans are getting warmer? And why is this so, do you think? Also, do you have any published research that supports any of those "coulds"?

 

[macdoc]

Warmer oceans could mean more clouds blocking sunshine

except it doesn't....clouds are at best neutral...
You DO understand that super cold days in the north are most often crisp and clear....I wonder why that is??

Warmer oceans could mean more snow cover reflecting sunshine

Except it doesn't - thanks for the segue

NASA satellites measure increase of Sun's energy absorbed in the Arctic
2 hours ago

NASA satellites measure increase of Sun's energy absorbed in the Arctic
The Arctic Ocean is absorbing more of the sun's energy in recent years as white, reflective sea ice melts and darker ocean waters are exposed. The increased darker surface area during the Arctic summer is responsible for a 5 percent increase …more
NASA satellite instruments have observed a marked increase in solar radiation absorbed in the Arctic since the year 2000 - a trend that aligns with the steady decrease in Arctic sea ice during the same period.

While sea ice is mostly white and reflects the sun's rays, ocean water is dark and absorbs the sun's energy at a higher rate. A decline in the region's albedo - its reflectivity, in effect - has been a key concern among scientists since the summer Arctic sea ice cover began shrinking in recent decades. As more of the sun's energy is absorbed by the climate system, it enhances ongoing warming in the region, which is more pronounced than anywhere else on the planet.
Since the year 2000, the rate of absorbed solar radiation in the Arctic in June, July and August has increased by five percent, said Norman Loeb, of NASA's Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia. The measurement is made by NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments, which fly on multiple satellites.

While a five percent increase may not seem like much, consider that the rate globally has remained essentially flat during that same time. No other region on Earth shows a trend of potential long-term change.
When averaged over the entire Arctic Ocean, the increase in the rate of absorbed solar radiation is about 10 Watts per square meter. This is equivalent to an extra 10-watt light bulb shining continuously over every 10.76 square feet of Arctic Ocean for the entire summer.
Regionally, the increase is even greater, Loeb said. Areas such as the Beaufort Sea, which has experienced the some of the most pronounced decreases in sea-ice coverage, show a 50 watts per square meter increase in the rate of absorbed solar radiation.
"Advances in our understanding of Arctic climate change and the underlying processes that influence it will depend critically upon high quality observations like these from CERES," Loeb said.


The Arctic Ocean is absorbing more of the sun's energy in recent years as white, reflective sea ice melts and darker ocean waters are exposed. The increased darker surface area during the Arctic summer is responsible for a 5 percent increase in …more
As a region, the Arctic is showing more dramatic signs of climate change than any other spot on the planet. These include a warming of air temperatures at a rate two to three times greater than the rest of the planet and the loss of September sea ice extent at a rate of 13 percent per decade.
.

more -
http://phys.org/news/2014-12-nasa-satellites-sun-energy-absorbed.html

Warmer oceans could provide more moisture to increase the volume of ice and snow in arctic and antarctic

Limited regions are getting more snow so some glaciers are growing...climate is the sum total of the impacts tho...guess what...
So we can change the could to a does but the sum total .....nah...that pig don't fly either..

three strikes....yer out.

 

[CapelDodger]

Warmer oceans could mean more clouds blocking sunshine

We have warmer oceans and this doesn't seem to have happened.

Warmer oceans could mean more snow cover reflecting sunshine

We have warmer oceans and this has not happened.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/extent/snow-cover/nhland/0

Warmer oceans could provide more moisture to increase the volume of ice and snow in arctic and antarctic

We have warmer oceans and quite the opposite has happened.

AGW isn't a thing of the future, as one might have thought thirty years ago; we are in the future of then. Negative feedbacks have not prevented the warming so far and there's no reason to think they'll suddenly start to do so.

In contrast, such positive feedbacks as Arctic summer sea-ice loss and permafrost melt have developed rather more rapidly than was projected thirty years ago, or even twenty. A demonstration of the natural conservatism of science if ever there was one.