Global warming discussion III

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Meanwhile ....more CO2 is leading to extreme weather ...including record heat in some areas...
It's not even summer in Australia yet..

Australia’s summer doesn’t start until December, but the country is still baking in a record-breaking spring heat wave.
On Saturday, Australia’s average high temperature of 97.5°F broke the record for the hottest October day since record-keeping began in 1910. According to the Sydney Morning Herald, this weekend’s heat wave set records for daily high temperatures at 20 stations throughout the country. The town of St. George reached a high of 108.6°F on Sunday, and the suburbs surrounding Ipswich and Brisbane hit 106°F.
A spokesman from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology told the Sydney Morning Herald that the heat wave was significant not just for its high temperatures, but for its duration. Wanaaring, Australia set a record of eight days of 95°F temperatures, a stretch of time that beats the town’s previous record of seven days in 1997. Broken Hill, Australia also experienced a longer stretch of October heat than usual: five days of 95°F or higher weather, up from the town’s previous October record of three days in a row.
“These are all occurring generally about a week early and the extent is longer than observed before,” he said.
Rob Sharpe, a meteorologist at Weatherzone, told the Herald that this heat wave was the “first big heat event of the warming season.” But Australia has been no stranger to heat waves in recent years. Last year was Australia’s hottest ever recorded, with an average annual temperature of 73.4°F — 2.16°F higher than the average for 1961-1990. The country also started 2014 with extreme temperatures, in a heatwave that began in 2013 and continued into the new year: in early January, parts of Australia reached 122°F, with some reports of temperatures as high as 129°F. This year, southeastern Australia also endured a record-breaking fall heat wave, with May temperatures up to 9°F higher than usual.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/10/27/3584781/australia-spring-heatwave/

The world is on course for the hottest year
Global Analysis - October 2014 | State of the Climate ...
www.ncdc.noaa.gov › Climate Monitoring › State of the Climate
Nov 20, 2014 - The Southern Hemisphere was record warm overall with a record high land .... 2014 is currently on track to be the warmest year on record.

and there is not even an El Nino to magnify it ( tho certainly the conditions are very close ).
 
The Californian drought is the most severe in 1200 years

http://www.scribd.com/doc/249302439/How-Unusual-is-the-2012-2014-California-Drought

For the past three years (2012-2014), California has experienced the most severe drought conditions in its last century. But how unusual is this event? Here we use two paleoclimate reconstructions of drought and precipitation for Central and Southern California to place this current event in the con-text of the last millennium. We demonstrate that while 3-year periods of persistent below-average soil moisture are not uncommon, the current event is the most severe drought in the last 1200 years, with single year (2014) and accumulated moisture deficits worse than any previous continuous span of dry years. Tree-ring chronologies extended through the 2014 growing season reveal that precipitation during the drought has been anomalously low but not outside the range of natural variability. The current California drought is exceptionally severe in the context of at least the last millennium and is driven by reduced though not unprecedented precipitation and record high temperatures.
 
on the other hand if el Nino kicks in and the current weather trend hangs on for 4-5 more months, they would top off the reservoirs and gain a little snow-pack insurance for the next year or so.

Yup - fix California - devastate S America and Australia :rolleyes:

In reality El Nino pattern is in place now.

In my home town (Melbourne) La Nina gave us a bit of reprieve in that the massive rainfall events (that resulted in a slight dip in global sea level due to the sheer amount of water transferred from the oceans to the southern continents) means that our reservoirs are relatively full, providing a bit of a buffer for the El Nino years. Though, sad to say, that's not the case for much of the continent.

That heatwave you linked to above, Macdoc, that **** is serious. Poeple are literally going to be driven from the land as entire regions become more and more marginal if conditions persist much longer.
 
They tend to be pretty wrong(*) about this, by definition, as their very ensembles show, but yet ...

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

We're still getting it peaking from February on and dropping by Southern Spring (one of the couple of outputs I commented here almost a year ago)

My local conditions are quite the Niño, what is good, because we were in "the verge of Niño" many months, which implied lots of rain and wind. Now it's just a little bit hotter and wetter and the only foreseeable consequence will be people using swimming pools until mid Autumn after the trees offered a lousy brownish fall.

Now it's time for the rest of the world to enjoy the Niño. One thing I'm quite sure is that next July global temperatures will be at least 6°F -probably 7°F- above the famous Feb-98' value when the "pause" supposedly started ;).

(*) still if it were a system just to predict Dow Jones going up or down, you'd become a millionaire pretty soon.
 
Warm Water Rising From the Depths: Much of Antarctica Now Under Threat of Melt
Antarctica. A seemingly impregnable fortress of cold. Ice mountains rising 2,100 meters high. Circumpolar winds raging out from this mass of chill frost walling the warm air out. And a curtain of sea ice insulating the surface air and mainland ice sheets from an increasingly warm world. A world that is now on track to experience one of its hottest years on record.

Antarctica, the coldest place on Earth, may well seem impregnable to this warming. But like any other fortress, it has its vulnerable spots. In this case, a weak underbelly. For in study after study, we keep finding evidence that warm waters are rising up from the abyss surrounding the chill and frozen continent. And the impact and risk to Antarctica’s glacial ice mountains is significant and growing.

more
http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com

snip

Such more rapid losses to ice sheets may well reflect the realities of previous climates. At current CO2e levels of 481 ppm (400 ppm CO2 + Methane and other human greenhouse gas additions) global sea levels were as much as 75-120 feet higher than they are today. Predicted greenhouse gas levels of 550 to 600 ppm CO2e by the middle of this century (Breaking 550 ppm CO2 alone by 2050 to 2060) are enough to set in place conditions that would eventually melt all the ice on Earth and raise sea levels by more than 200 feet.
For there was no time in the past 55 million years when large ice sheets existed under atmospheric CO2 concentrations exceeding 550 parts per million.
Glaciologist Eric Rignot has been warning for years that the IPCC sea level rise estimates may well be too conservative. And it seems that recent trends may well bear his warnings out. If so, the consequences to millions of people living along the world’s coastlines are stark and significant. For the world, it appears we face the increasing likelihood of a near-term inland mass-migration of people and property. A stunning set of losses and tragedy starting now and ongoing through many decades and centuries to come.
 
Here is comes for British Columbia...the rain that California needs...

Storm warning: 'incredible' subtropical storms to drench B.C.
Environment Canada warns residents to brace for 3 to 4 days of extraordinary rainfall

CBC News Posted: Dec 08, 2014 6:35 AM PT Last Updated: Dec 08, 2014 12:35 PM PT

Environment Canada is warning West Coast residents to brace for an 'incredible' series of storms that will bring an extraordinary amount of rain this week.

According to forecasters, an intense jet stream over the Pacific is gathering warm moist air from southern latitudes.

The warm subtropical weather pattern "will bombard the mountains of Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland from today through Thursday morning," according to a weather warning issued this morning by Environment Canada.

Around Metro Vancouver, residents are warned to expect prolonged rain over the next three to four days, starting with 25 mm to 100 mm of rain by Tuesday morning.

The west coast of Vancouver Island and Howe Sound are forecast to get 100 mm to 200 mm by Tuesday morning.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...le-subtropical-storms-to-drench-b-c-1.2864131
 
Sydney just had a record 9 day spell of monsoonal thunderstorm - people on Twitter were posting screenshots of their weather apps showing a forecast of "22C. Sleet, Snow". This is in summer :eye-poppi
 
Sydney just had a record 9 day spell of monsoonal thunderstorm - people on Twitter were posting screenshots of their weather apps showing a forecast of "22C. Sleet, Snow". This is in summer :eye-poppi
The Guardian is reporting that Australia is now the worst ranked industrial nation for dealing with climate change (even lower than Saudi Arabia, which isn't ranked as an industrial nation...)

http://www.theguardian.com/environm...rforming-industrial-country-on-climate-change
 
The Guardian is reporting that Australia is now the worst ranked industrial nation for dealing with climate change (even lower than Saudi Arabia, which isn't ranked as an industrial nation...)

http://www.theguardian.com/environm...rforming-industrial-country-on-climate-change

The only country to have repealed effective climate change policy - resulting in an almost immediate 4% hike in electricity sector emissions :mad:

http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/australian-electricity-emissions-could-jump-9-in-201415-36334

Now we're at COP20 trying to throw a spanner in the works by insisting on binding targets, knowing full well that it's an impossible ask.

Shameful days.

The only consolation is that our 14 month old government is tanking hard in the polls in a way no first term government here ever has, raising the very real possibility that they'll be booted out in 2016.
 
They tend to be pretty wrong(*) about this, by definition, as their very ensembles show, but yet ...
(...)
(*) still if it were a system just to predict Dow Jones going up or down, you'd become a millionaire pretty soon.

If you invest for the long haul, a well diversified, broad range "green" portfolio seems to perform pretty well, especially with an offset of select Munis. At least, my money seems to be earning money at a decent clip and this is fairly low risk (and the municipal bonds are tax-free). :)
 
If you invest for the long haul, a well diversified, broad range "green" portfolio seems to perform pretty well, especially with an offset of select Munis. At least, my money seems to be earning money at a decent clip and this is fairly low risk (and the municipal bonds are tax-free). :)

That, a good example of "skirting around the issue"... Would a harsh debate grow that to "copping-out"?

A long tradition here of anything but dealing with climate change science and scepticism unless a denialist moronic duck flies about as a target to be aimed with popguns. Why am I not surprised?
 
That, a good example of "skirting around the issue"... Would a harsh debate grow that to "copping-out"?

A long tradition here of anything but dealing with climate change science and scepticism unless a denialist moronic duck flies about as a target to be aimed with popguns. Why am I not surprised?
Why are you even here? I thought we'd heard the last of your hectoring lecturing but no, it seems not. Another disappointment in life.
 
That, a good example of "skirting around the issue"... Would a harsh debate grow that to "copping-out"?

A long tradition here of anything but dealing with climate change science and scepticism unless a denialist moronic duck flies about as a target to be aimed with popguns. Why am I not surprised?

Simply a personal aside. My comment wasn't intended to start a divergent discussion, or argument, but I understand how a perspective which has been dutifully forged into a hammer can make the world seem full of nails.
 
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