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Global warming discussion III

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ClarkMag said:
What was the earth's average temp in 1999?
2013?

I can't find 1999 with google.
This is all I can find
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Whatever those lists represent, they're clearly not representing the same thing.

(I imagine those will be surface temps, by the way; Haig's presenting a Lower Troposphere temperature).
 
ClarkMag said:
What was the earth's average temp in 1999?
2013?

I can't find 1999 with google.
This is all I can find
Click to expand...

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

picture.php

Global average temp.

1999 = 14.40° C

2013 = 14.59° C

Average rise above 14° C (mean surface temp. of 1951 - 1980 period) is approximately 2 tenths of a degree Celsius over roughly a decade and a half.

At that rate ceteris paribus (which was recorded during a purported "pause" in warming) our planetary mean surface temp. would rise by ~13°C by the first decade of the next century, giving a mean annual surface temp. of around 27°C (80.6° F) from the current average annual global surface temp which is ~ 14.59° C (58.26° F).

see following posts for correction
 
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macdoc said:
:jaw-dropp - sure you did not drop a decimal there???
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Nope, but I did multiply by 100 instead of 10. Ooopsie!

okay, apologies to all, I was thinking about the top end projections looking at 10°C by 2100 and the 13°C didn't trigger the brain-burp alarm that it should have.

"At that rate ceteris paribus (which was recorded during a purported "pause" in warming) our planetary mean surface temp. would rise by ~13°C by the first decade of the next century, giving a mean annual surface temp. of around 27°C (80.6° F) from the current average annual global surface temp which is ~ 14.59° C (58.26° F)."

should have been posted as - "At that rate ceteris paribus (which was recorded during a purported "pause" in warming) our planetary mean surface temp. would rise by ~1.3°C by the first decade of the next century, giving a mean annual surface temp. of around 15.89°C (60.60° F) from the current average annual global surface temp which is ~ 14.59° C (58.26° F)."

Of course, this is at the reduced current rate of warming and there are credible calculations putting the ~2100 potential warming in the 6-10° C range, but thank-you for catching that mistake and bringing it to my attention.
 
BoM has released the Australian stats - 2014 was the third warmest

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/

Data collected and analysed by the Bureau of Meteorology show that 2014 was Australia's third-warmest year on record while rainfall was near average nationally.
  • Another year of persistent warmth; spring was the warmest on record nationally, with autumn the third-warmest on record
  • Overall, 2014 was Australia's third-warmest year on record: the annual national mean temperature was +0.91 °C above average
  • All States, except the Northern Territory, ranked in the four warmest years on record
  • National rainfall was near average for the year, with 478 mm (1961–1990 average 465 mm)
  • Rainfall was above average for far north Queensland, much of the Northern Territory, inland Western Australia and parts of South Australia
  • Rainfall was below average along the western coast of Western Australia and over much of the eastern States
Click to expand...
 
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JMA have released their global dataset

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/ann_wld.html

The annual anomaly of the global average surface temperature in 2014 (i.e. the average of the near-surface air temperature over land and the SST) was +0.27°C above the 1981-2010 average (+0.63°C above the 20th century average), and was the warmest since 1891. On a longer time scale, global average surface temperatures have risen at a rate of about 0.70°C per century.
Click to expand...
 
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I see a chart of changes, but that would be interpretive, with quantization error.
Is there not a record of absolutes?
 
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Haig said:
You can suspect all you want but the fact is ...

The Great Pause lengthens again
[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_3823654a948f72e0e4.png[/qimg]
Figure 1. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset shows no global warming for 18 years 3 months since October 1996.
Click to expand...

Oh man, I love that image. That's not a temperature graph. That's a temperature change graph. The flat line doesn't mean there's been no increase, it means that the average change has been positive, and that there has, in fact, been warming for the past 18 years.

I've seen that image for years, and I am completely certain it was created purposefully to troll deniers who can't read graphs.
 
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ClarkMag said:
I see a chart of changes, but that would be interpretive, with quantization error.
Is there not a record of absolutes?
Click to expand...

I'm not sure what you mean by quantization error in this context but anomalies are the standard way to measure global temperature change. Anomalies inherently remove calibration error and other forms of noise.
 
ADDENDUM
bit_pattern said:
JMA have released their global dataset

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/ann_wld.html

The annual anomaly of the global average surface temperature in 2014 (i.e. the average of the near-surface air temperature over land and the SST) was +0.27°C above the 1981-2010 average (+0.63°C above the 20th century average), and was the warmest since 1891. On a longer time scale, global average surface temperatures have risen at a rate of about 0.70°C per century.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

BTW - I still haven't routinely switched to using the latest standard climate period 1981-2010 for comparison (mainly because most of my sources still use the older reference 1951-1980). This probably accounts for a large part of the discrepancy between the JMA dataset and the GISSTEMP dataset. They are just using slightly different reference sets.
 
ehcks said:
Oh man, I love that image. That's not a temperature graph. That's a temperature change graph. The flat line doesn't mean there's been no increase, it means that the average change has been positive, and that there has, in fact, been warming for the past 18 years.

I've seen that image for years, and I am completely certain it was created purposefully to troll deniers who can't read graphs.
Click to expand...

Also, note that it reports an r2 of ZERO. That is, the 'trend line' has zero predictive power (also, I think it's imposible to actually compute such a low r2 for any set of data, due to it's auto-scaling nature). It's gotta be a false-flag trolling attempt.
 
bit_pattern said:
JMA have released their global dataset
The annual anomaly of the global average surface temperature in 2014 (i.e. the average of the near-surface air temperature over land and the SST) was +0.27°C above the 1981-2010 average (+0.63°C above the 20th century average), and was the warmest since 1891. On a longer time scale, global average surface temperatures have risen at a rate of about 0.70°C per century.
Click to expand...
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/ann_wld.html
Click to expand...

Are they saying it was warmer in 1891 or that's as far back as their records go?

The chart in this article doesn't seem to indicate that it was warmer in 1891:

http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2015/01/2014-hottest-year-record
 
lionking said:
OT I know, but I worked for the BoM in the 1970s when the epitome of new technology was introduced - the facsimile machine. There was a division of a couple of dozen staff who received and analysed faxes of satellite images. It took ages for dot matrix printers to push out a single image.
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I went to a Royal Navy Open Day in Portsmouth in '68 or so and watched a real-time satellite image coming out on that old wet-print paper. To hell with big guns and torpedo tubes,that's what caught us geeks' attention. The future - now! :)
 
ehcks said:
Oh man, I love that image. That's not a temperature graph. That's a temperature change graph. The flat line doesn't mean there's been no increase, it means that the average change has been positive, and that there has, in fact, been warming for the past 18 years.

I've seen that image for years, and I am completely certain it was created purposefully to troll deniers who can't read graphs.
Click to expand...
To be honest I didn't look at it at all closely. Is this really what Monckton's presenting as "no warming"? If so, it raises the question : does Monckton know what he's doing, or has somebody fooled him (not a difficult trick to pull off)?

ETA : I'm comfortable with the assumption that Haig doesn't know what he's doing.
 
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