Global warming discussion III

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CS opined ...
as such climate sensitivity is unlikely to be constant,

:dl: ..largest load of tripe offered up yet.

There has yet to be identified ANY substantive negative feedbacks....which your nonsense implies there could be.

Reality is .....more and more the evidence from observation is on the high side of sensivity range.

Abstract
Abstract• References• Author information• Extended data figures and tables
Equilibrium climate sensitivity refers to the ultimate change in global mean temperature in response to a change in external forcing. Despite decades of research attempting to narrow uncertainties, equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from climate models still span roughly 1.5 to 5 degrees Celsius for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, precluding accurate projections of future climate.

The spread arises largely from differences in the feedback from low clouds, for reasons not yet understood. Here we show that differences in the simulated strength of convective mixing between the lower and middle tropical troposphere explain about half of the variance in climate sensitivity estimated by 43 climate models. The apparent mechanism is that such mixing dehydrates the low-cloud layer at a rate that increases as the climate warms, and this rate of increase depends on the initial mixing strength, linking the mixing to cloud feedback. The mixing inferred from observations appears to be sufficiently strong to imply a climate sensitivity of more than 3 degrees for a doubling of carbon dioxide. This is significantly higher than the currently accepted lower bound of 1.5 degrees, thereby constraining model projections towards relatively severe future warming.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7481/full/nature12829.html

Your obfuscations are hilariously transparent......akin to Koonan's service to his fossil fuel masters.
 
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Enjoyable article about the Koonin article. alot of respected climatologists responded :)

http://www.theguardian.com/environm...street-journal-downplays-global-warming-risks

At least it makes settled the following issues.

CO2 is a greenhouse gas
It persists in the atmosphere centuries after stop adding it
The high level of CO2 is anthropogenic
The temperature is rising.
The temperature rise is partly anthropogenic.

That settles a lot debate that has gone on here.

The only real issue that is causing much debate among scientists is climate sensitivity.
 
First, you are confusing weather with climate. It's like claiming a record early snow means something.
source
source

As for "hottest ever", it is meaningless on a global scale. The lack of data from the past means it's impossible to claim that. What it actually means is "the people who do the GISS analysis of temperature anomalies claim it's the hottest ever".

GISS SAYS HOTTER THAN EVER BEFORE!

I can't find that wording anywhere but here. Perhaps you could quote what they actually say.

https://www.google.com.au/search?q=...annel=nts&gfe_rd=cr&ei=7U0hVMOQD6KN8QeFxYCwCQ
 
He's using this utility: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global

He's using it to cherry pick particular combinations of timescale and region which show a short-term cooling trend, despite the overall global longterm warming trend. You will always be able to find such combinations, of course.

To get the graph he obtained set:

Display trend: ticked, per century, start 1995, end 2014

Timescale: three month

Month: February

Start Year: 1990 End year: 2014

Latitude band: Northern Hemisphere

Surface: Land

To answer Reality Check's question about the odd choice of trend start date, this is the graph you get if you set the start date of "display trend" to 1990 to match the start date of the data.


Hmmm, if we look at the latest figures, I definitely see a warming trend.

 
Originally Posted by r-j View Post
First, you are confusing weather with climate. It's like claiming a record early snow means something.

You mean it's an outlier like your fav year 1998 for your crap "analysis"....:rolleyes:

In fact a record early snowfall that is one of a set of say 30 snowfalls each earlier than the average IS meaningful in a climate discussion. Just as below average or record low ice covers in the Arctic....they are data points and each data point contributes to the resolution of the trend.

Early snowfall can also be a result of blocked highs which are indicative of a weakening jet stream.
Early snowfall can be indicative of more moisture in the atmosphere....
All are meaningful if you have the knowledge to comprehend the importance ......which you continually show you do not.
 
As I've said you are misrepresenting the data, but you aren't fooling anyone because, as _you_ said, the data speaks for itself.
You can "say" anything on the internet. You are claiming I'm "misrepresenting the data", which is only possible if you don't show all the data, there is no way linking to a source is misrepresenting anything. You also are confused that I want to "fool" you, which is absurd, it's so absurd, it's entertaining, it's funny.

For example, when I brought up the NH winters, which are obviously not getting warmer, milder, shorter, (in large areas), I used multiple sources to explain why science and data shows the winters actually are trending colder in large areas. I was shocked to see that Cohen et al 2012 was showing this using 1988-2010. They showed the boreal winters trended down since 1988, which of course most people would not know.

I can understand alarmists objecting to that knowledge. But I couldn't understand why anyone would claim there was no greenhouse theory, that part was certainly novel. When I counter the objections by using the exact phrase, in Cohen et al 2014, and the chorus of deniers who said there was no theory, and no science paper would use the term, and it still makes no difference, that's when you realize you are playing chess with a pigeon.

What you are doing now is a common rhetorical tactic, but just saying something is funny or silly isn't enough: you have to show why you think it is so.
Actually, if you have to explain why something is funny, you might want to rethink the joke.

But certainly it's obvious to most, that when we read, in an actual peer reviewed paper, by a whole group of actual climate researchers, something profound and important, and the response is denial, the reaction from the doom and gloom crowd is priceless.

Cohen et al 2014 makes some very good points, and shows us exactly how the climate system may be reacting to greenhouse forcing in unexpected ways. I say "might" because certainty is rare in science as new and complicated as global climate.

Understanding the relative importance of different forcings mechanisms, and how they interact with internally generated variability, remains a key challenge. More and better observations (for example, of ocean–ice–atmosphere energy exchange, cloud cover and troposphere–stratosphere coupling) would not only improve our understanding of the Arctic and its climate, but also help to elucidate the mechanisms of atmospheric response to Arctic amplification and better constrain the models.
http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers/Cohenetal_NGeo14.pdf

If their theoretical ideas are correct, then in fact AGW might be causing the brutal and unheard of winter storms we know with 100% certainty are happening. Greenhouse warming might be causing the record cold in the NH. Warming might actually be the cause of Lake Superior freezing completely, for the first time ever. The other two times it almost happened are also in recent history, meaning we might be seeing obvious evidence of climate change.

(historic records of Lake Superior and ice are extensive. Up until the first time it almost froze, nobody would have believed it could even happen. Because it had never happened before. Going back to 1600 and something, that's a scientific fact)

Nobody actually knows. Of course it could be something else. There is extensive evidence and science that something else can cause the NH to cool. Other forcings can't be discounted.

But if they are right, and the loss of arctic sea ice is actually causing the early heavy snowfall, which leads to the other changes, which leads to the extreme cold, then in essence they have discovered a huge negative feedback.

Rather than the expected amplified warming from open water, more bare rock and land, melting glaciers and increased vegetation, all of which are expected to cause further warming of the polar regions, we seem to be observing a negative feedback in fall and winter. More snow, more cold, worse storms, more freezing, earlier blizzards, earlier frost, all of which is a huge monkey wrench into the warming narrative that everybody has heard for decades now.

Of course the alarmists denies this, and the fossil fuel deniers dance with joy. Both responses are unscientific. Useless really.

The only proper response is what Cohen et al clearly explains.
 
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You can "say" anything on the internet. You are claiming I'm "misrepresenting the data", which is only possible if you don't show all the data, there is no way linking to a source is misrepresenting anything. You also are confused that I want to "fool" you, which is absurd, it's so absurd, it's entertaining, it's funny.

For example, when I brought up the NH winters, which are obviously not getting warmer, milder, shorter, (in large areas), I used multiple sources to explain why science and data shows the winters actually are trending colder in large areas. I was shocked to see that Cohen et al 2012 was showing this using 1988-2010. They showed the boreal winters trended down since 1988, which of course most people would not know.

I can understand alarmists objecting to that knowledge. But I couldn't understand why anyone would claim there was no greenhouse theory, that part was certainly novel. When I counter the objections by using the exact phrase, in Cohen et al 2014, and the chorus of deniers who said there was no theory, and no science paper would use the term, and it still makes no difference, that's when you realize you are playing chess with a pigeon.

Actually, if you have to explain why something is funny, you might want to rethink the joke.

But certainly it's obvious to most, that when we read, in an actual peer reviewed paper, by a whole group of actual climate researchers, something profound and important, and the response is denial, the reaction from the doom and gloom crowd is priceless.

Cohen et al 2014 makes some very good points, and shows us exactly how the climate system may be reacting to greenhouse forcing in unexpected ways. I say "might" because certainty is rare in science as new and complicated as global climate.

http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers/Cohenetal_NGeo14.pdf

If their theoretical ideas are correct, then in fact AGW might be causing the brutal and unheard of winter storms we know with 100% certainty are happening. Greenhouse warming might be causing the record cold in the NH. Warming might actually be the cause of Lake Superior freezing completely, for the first time ever. The other two times it almost happened are also in recent history, meaning we might be seeing obvious evidence of climate change.

(historic records of Lake Superior and ice are extensive. Up until the first time it almost froze, nobody would have believed it could even happen. Because it had never happened before. Going back to 1600 and something, that's a scientific fact)

Nobody actually knows. Of course it could be something else. There is extensive evidence and science that something else can cause the NH to cool. Other forcings can't be discounted.

But if they are right, and the loss of arctic sea ice is actually causing the early heavy snowfall, which leads to the other changes, which leads to the extreme cold, then in essence they have discovered a huge negative feedback.

Rather than the expected amplified warming from open water, more bare rock and land, melting glaciers and increased vegetation, all of which are expected to cause further warming of the polar regions, we seem to be observing a negative feedback in fall and winter. More snow, more cold, worse storms, more freezing, earlier blizzards, earlier frost, all of which is a huge monkey wrench into the warming narrative that everybody has heard for decades now.

Of course the alarmists denies this, and the fossil fuel deniers dance with joy. Both responses are unscientific. Useless really.

The only proper response is what Cohen et al clearly explains.

when you brought up colder winters, you said just winter, not NH winters nor Boreal winters, then it was pointed out to you that your own sources did not support the claim that Winters are becoming colder, but Boreal winters.

and you kept repeating for a while that winters became colder. and only later you started to add boreal or NH some times.

and btw, will you ever adress the posts where i exposed your errors? or will you keep ignoring it? and never actually correct your claim about data manipulation? also in that case it was your own source that debunked your claim.
but you just cannot admit an error while you keep claiming others are not able to admit errors.....

you lost all credibility, if you ever had any. :rolleyes:
 
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/1/014007/

In 2012 they used 198-2010 to show a trend. They use the term "trend", and publish it in a real scientific publication.

I mentioned that this trend (for large areas) has become so much colder, it actually makes the entire global land trend negative. link and link (those may not work right, CAG is buggy)

You don't understand climate science in the least...nor apparently how to read...

The most up to date consensus from global climate models predicts warming in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes to middle latitudes during boreal winter. However, recent trends in observed NH winter surface temperatures diverge from these projections. For the last two decades, large-scale cooling trends have existed instead across large stretches of eastern North America and northern Eurasia. We argue that this unforeseen trend is probably not due to internal variability alone.

Instead, evidence suggests that summer and autumn warming trends are concurrent with increases in high-latitude moisture and an increase in Eurasian snow cover, which dynamically induces large-scale wintertime cooling.

Understanding this counterintuitive response to radiative warming of the climate system has the potential for improving climate predictions at seasonal and longer timescales.

2 decades is a reasonable base line for a trend....wide spread is not anywhere near the entire NH and is ONLY land based.....which NOAA and others and here has been covered off...warm oceans cold continents since 2010

This has been discussed innumerable times....the Arctic Dipole

warmarctic_coldcontinents_300.png


http://www.noaa.gov/features/02_monitoring/warmarctic.html

Move on to something relevant to AGW instead consistently demonstrating your appalling ignorance of science and in particular climate science.

The reality is....it's AGW induced local weather. You have NEVER understood snow cover and moisture and this is just one more example of your excruciating inability to grasp simple phenomena in relation to the larger global temperature increases which are magnified in the Arctic and sub-arctic.

With a weakening jet stream due to polar warming we will see more and more temporary cold excursions nicknamed the Polar Vortex.

Screen%2520Shot%25202014-09-23%2520at%2520Sep%252C%252023%2520%2520%2520%25202014%2520%2520%2520%25202.05.46%2520PM.jpg


Even this last March it was very clear this is a continental phenomena in that case North America only and we had an early dose of it this year with some snow in the west.

NOAAMarch2014-638x469.jpg


It's weather induced by Arctic warming.....get over it and move on.:rolleyes:
 
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Surprise surprise, the papers isn’t arguing what you claim. What it does is speculate that warmer overall climate will result in more snowfall and cooler early winter temperatures in a specific region. The entire premise of the paper is based on a warming planet...

In 2012 they used 198-2010 to show a trend. They use the term "trend", and publish it in a real scientific publication.

The “trend” doesn’t pass the tests for statistically significant...
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/10/22/winter-cooling/
 
You're wasting your time, lomiller. The denier's entire argument is based on a total misunderstanding of what global warming is. Climate is way too complicated for those people to get their heads around. You have to start from scratch.
 

That is an entire subject that hasn't come up yet. Looking at unadjusted data for the NH anomalies you can clearly see the cyclic nature of temperature changes. The cycles also show up in snow cover data, something that is directly related to temperature.

What is different at present, is the extra greenhouse forcing, and the solar cycle doing something completely unexpected. Which makes the entire thing pretty much impossible to know what is doing what and why and how much, because we also have volcanoes very active, a lot of soot in the arctic , dimming from coal burning, a churning chaotic system with many variables, it's no wonder there is no consensus about climate, climate change and how much is from humans.

Hubris always gets smashed in the face by mother nature.
 
That is an entire subject that hasn't come up yet. Looking at unadjusted data for the NH anomalies you can clearly see the cyclic nature of temperature changes. The cycles also show up in snow cover data, something that is directly related to temperature.

What is different at present, is the extra greenhouse forcing, and the solar cycle doing something completely unexpected. Which makes the entire thing pretty much impossible to know what is doing what and why and how much, because we also have volcanoes very active, a lot of soot in the arctic , dimming from coal burning, a churning chaotic system with many variables, it's no wonder there is no consensus about climate, climate change and how much is from humans.

Hubris always gets smashed in the face by mother nature.

Why unadjusted?

ETA Is this all of the NH or your constantly shrinking part of the NH.
 
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