Global warming discussion III

[DC]

First, you are confusing weather with climate. It's like claiming a record early snow means something.
source
source

As for "hottest ever", it is meaningless on a global scale. The lack of data from the past means it's impossible to claim that. What it actually means is "the people who do the GISS analysis of temperature anomalies claim it's the hottest ever".

GISS SAYS HOTTER THAN EVER BEFORE!

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=31718&d=1411080857[/qimg]

RSS data shows the pause in tropospheric temperatures continues.

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=31719&d=1411080857[/qimg]

sources GISS and RSS data base


Looking at the GLOBAL February anomaly, you can see GLOBALLY last February was no warmer than 1981. If you believe the data, there was no warming from 1981-2014, for February.

[qimg]http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/rss/from:1980.08/every:12[/qimg]

Science, it's better than hysteria.

why are you taking sat data? and why exactly RSS?

and all global datasets show warming

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/ha...istemp/from:1980/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1980

 

[Reality Check]

As for "hottest ever", ....

You are committing the near lie of quote mining and ignoring context, r-j
No one here is claiming that the temperatures are the "hottest ever" in the last 4.6 billion years.

April, May, June, and August 2014 are the hottest April, May, June, and August on record.

OH?? hottest August globally since 1880 means nothing....??/

What the claim of the May and June temperatures are the hottest ever on record means is that when we graph temperature records against time we see that so far 2014 has the highest May and June temperatures on record .
World breaks temperature record for June after hottest May
This suggests that the 2014 NH summer will be very hot and possibly the hottest on record. Ditto for global 2014 temperatures.

 

[macdoc]

In context.....

Despite no El Nino declared, an extraordinarily hot global ocean surface keeps dumping heat back into the atmosphere.

This transfer resulted in the hottest March-through-May period in the global record and has pushed numerous record spikes in the global measures this summer. By August, according to NASA, the global average had again climbed to never-before-seen levels.

To understand these record high global temperatures, it is useful to consider the broader paleo-climate context. In this context, the global temperature difference between 1880 and the last ice age was about 5 degrees Celsius. So the current temperature departure, driven by human greenhouse gas emissions, is equal to about 1/5 the difference between the 19th century and an ice age, but on the side of hot.

As it took about 12,000 years for the post ice-age warming to occur, the recorded pace of warming since 1880 is about 20 times faster than that period of extreme Earth system change.
With the predicted pace of warming expected to increase even further and with ice sheets still covering the surface of the Earth (which greatly help to mitigate the pace of warming spikes), this current velocity of change is both likely unprecedented and catastrophic.

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com

2014 hottest...I can see no situation where it would not be short of a massive volcano outbreak.

 

[ideogram]

No r-j, I'm not going read every source you ever cited to try to find the ones relevant to this argument.

I see a list of four sources requested:

1. r-j (8 September 2014): Please cite the source you used to check the temperature records of from 1930 to about 1950 (1930's and 1940's) for the weather station mentioned in the [URL="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/03/new-daily-temperature-dataset-from-berkeley/"]RealClimate article.[/URL]
2. r-j (19 September 2014): Please cite your source for these specific temperatures which you state are from the University station.
3. r-j (19 September 2014): Please cite your source that shows that the University station is the rooftop one that was moved to O'Hare.
4. r-j (19 September 2014): Please cite the source for your "NCDC NH land winter trend" image.

You can answer the request simply and directly with a list of four sources. No additional commentary required.

 

[Pixel42]

The year to date (January-August) is the third warmest on record.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/8

The first eight months of 2014 (January–August) were the third warmest such period on record across the world's land and ocean surfaces, with an average temperature that was 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average of 57.3°F (14.0°C). If 2014 maintains this temperature departure from average for the remainder of the year, it will be the warmest year on record.

 

[greybeard]

The year to date (January-August) is the third warmest on record.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/8

The first eight months of 2014 (January–August) were the third warmest such period on record across the world's land and ocean surfaces, with an average temperature that was 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average of 57.3°F (14.0°C). If 2014 maintains this temperature departure from average for the remainder of the year, it will be the warmest year on record.

And we have now experienced the 354th consecutive month where global land and ocean average surface temperature exceeded the 20th century monthly average.

 

[macdoc]

put it to bed ffs.

Trends in air temperature over the NH for the boreal winter has been analyzed during the last decades: 1980–2012.
•
Different climatic datasets have been intercompared: ERA-interim, NCEP, CRUTEMv4, GHCNv3.
•
Results show almost a neutral trend in temperature, but a significant and widespread warming over Greenland.

Abstract
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported a significant rise of the global mean surface temperature over the last 100 years, with a rate of warming over the last few decades almost double that over the last 100 years. The rate of warming is higher at land surfaces over the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and particularly extreme warming is occurring over the Arctic.

In spite of the global warming trend, some asymmetries have been observed. In a recent study, a widespread cooling over the NH during the boreal winter season was reported, although other previous studies observed a warming during this season.

In this paper we report trends in winter air temperatures over the mid- to high-latitudes of the NH in the last three decades (1980–2012) using different climatic datasets at different spatial resolution (ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR, CRUTEM4, GHCN).

Results extracted from the different datasets are consistent and show a neutral to moderate warming trend in the winter season during the last three decades. Greenland is an exception, where widespread and significant warming is observed in this time period.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818113000672

 

[a_unique_person]

One month means pretty much nothing in regards to climate.

The changes, the trends, that is what is important.,

Like looking at the change from the warming trend, an obvious one, to one that shows, well, cooling.

Warming

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=31716&stc=1&d=1411072807[/qimg]

Cooling.

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=31717&stc=1&d=1411072807[/qimg]


One obvious thing the two share is a cooling Pacific. Probably why scientists are floating papers saying it explains the pause.

One month can mean something when record highs outnumber record lies.

 

[DC]

One month can mean something when record highs outnumber record lies.

i don't know if the climate ever can outnumber the number of denier lies spread on the net

 

[a_unique_person]

One month can mean something when record highs outnumber record lows.

For example, this has been done for the USA here.

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/1036/record-high-temperatures-far-outpace-record-lows-across-us

 

[DC]

So what?
I don't answer dishonest people, or read their responses.

But I can understand why somebody would avoid answering, and keep trying to focus on something else.

sure you can, that is exactly what you do with the posts that show you wrong.
you are just unable to admit being wrong and just keep ignoring said posts.....

very telling.

 

[macdoc]

Let's put a cork in the denial crockery and move on to what to do about it...

It’s about as settled as science gets. In fact, it’s about as settled as the fact that smoking causes cancer, chlorofluorocarbons cause ozone depletion, sulfur dioxide causes acid rain, and DDT is toxic. Although the science is inconvenient for certain industries and the political think tanks they fund (like the Marshall Institute and TPPF), these effects all pose dangers to public health. Climate change perhaps most of all.

rest of the article...
http://www.theguardian.com/environm...-3-how-much-global-warming-are-humans-causing

Judith Curry comes off a paid for science shill by vested interests. Gavin has the facts...Curry is a gadfly.

 

[macdoc]

Dark ice in Greenland

Anyone who has ever slipped over on black ice in the dead of winter will attest to how dangerous it is. But a darkening of the Greenland ice sheet could impact upon the entire world, as the hastening trend reduces the Arctic’s ability to reflect sunlight and increases global warming.
The world’s leading expert on the ice that covers the huge expanse of Greenland has told The Independent that he was “stunned” to see how much darker it has become in the past year – warning it could start a hugely damaging “cascading feedback loop” of the area becoming blacker as less and less light is reflected.

Dr Jason Box, a glaciology professor, has just finished his 23rd expedition to the Danish-owned island since 1994, a series of trips that included spending a year camped on the country’s inland ice. And this time, said Dr Box, he had never seen anything like it.

“Where I took the photos I was stunned by how large an area had such a dark appearance,” said Dr Box, who works for the Geological Survey of Greenland. “This rocket ride has just gotten off the launchpad. I expect the snow and ice to continue darkening – every indication is that the Arctic climate will continue warming and the number of wildfires will keep increasing.”

more
http://www.independent.co.uk/enviro...art-global-warming-feedback-loop-9742159.html

Not good.....

 

[CapelDodger]

I feel safe in my earlier prediction that 2014 will be the hottest year on record. I will also stick with 2015 being even hotter.

Bold - but not very . I'll go as far as saying I'll be surprised if you're wrong in either case, absent some geological intrusion.

 

[ideogram]

So what?

So you're not here to present an argument, you're here to call people stupid.

 

[r-j]

So you're not here to present an argument, you're here to call people stupid.

If you make a claim, you need to provide evidence. What you are doing is not scientific, or even based on anything real.

The irony is that those who accuse don't offer any evidence.

[quote=r-j]

R-j, putting aside for the moment that your claim that winters are getting colder is demonstrably false

The ignorance is amusing. I repeated what many scientists said, which I provided links to, both reports and articles, none of which said the entire world was getting colder, much less what you have twisted it into. They said winters are getting colder. They are not saying the entire world is getting colder. Learn the difference. You are never going to win this one. It's your opinion against the entire world of data and science.

That feeling of numbness in your toes, even inside your thickest boots, is not lying to you. It’s been very cold so far this winter in most of the U.S. and many places at middle latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Washington, D.C., London and Seoul have already shoveled themselves out from major snowfalls. And over the course of 2009, average temperatures across some parts of the U.S. were cooler than the average temperature for a baseline period of 1951-1980.

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/coldweather-2009.html

At first (2006) it was explained away as natural variation.

Temperatures for December and January were consistently 1.8 F ( 1 C) lower than the average of 41 F (5 C)and 37 F (3C) respectively and more snow fell in London this week than since the 1960s.
But despite this extreme weather, scientists say that the current cold snap does not mean that climate change is going into reverse. In fact, the surprise with which we have greeted the extreme conditions only reinforces how our climate has changed over the years.
A study by the Met Office which went back 350 years shows that such extreme weather now only occurs every 20 years.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/w...stent-with-global-warming-say-scientists.html
After it happened again, and again, and yet again

The winter of 2005-6 was the coldest in 50 years in Japan and eastern Eurasia, reported Meiji Honda, a senior scientist with the Climate Diagnosis Group at Japan’s Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. Honda’s studies show that the air over the Arctic was quite warm in the fall of 2005, which altered normal wind patterns, pushing the jet stream further south and bringing arctic cold to much of Eurasia and Japan. He also documented the same mechanism for the colder winters of 2007-8 and 2009-10, he told participants.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/20...ovember-and-hottest-year-on-record/?mobile=nc

There you see the effort to explain the colder winters. There is no doubt the winters were becoming colder, that isn't even in dispute. Don't make the mistake of thinking this means every winter will be colder, that isn't what they are talking about at all.

January 6, 2010 (AP) -- Beijing had its coldest morning in almost 40 years and its biggest snowfall since 1951. Britain is suffering through its longest cold snap since 1981. And freezing weather is gripping the Deep South, including Florida's orange groves and beaches. Whatever happened to global warming? Such weather doesn't seem to fit with warnings from scientists that the Earth is warming because of greenhouse gases. But experts say the cold snap doesn't disprove global warming at all - it's just a blip in the long-term heating trend.

http://phys.org/news182026415.html#jCp

Here is the link (again) where sea ice is proposed as a reason for the cold winters. (note the use of the term Rossby wave, which I introduced early on)

Back to the cold air in Europe: is it possible that reduced Arctic sea ice is affecting weather patterns? Because Hudson Bay (and Baffin Bay, west of Greenland) are at significantly lower latitudes than most of the Arctic Ocean, global warming may cause them to remain ice free into early winter after the Arctic Ocean has become frozen insulating the atmosphere from the ocean. The fixed location of the Hudson-Baffin heat source could plausibly affect weather patterns, in a deterministic way — Europe being half a Rossby wavelength downstream, thus producing a cold European anomaly in the trans-Atlantic seesaw. Several ideas about possible effects of the loss of Arctic sea ice on weather patterns are discussed in papers referenced by Overland, Wang and Walsh.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2010november/

Last June, during the International Polar Year conference, James Overland suggested that there are more cold and snowy winters to come. He argued that the exceptionally cold snowy 2009-2010 winter in Europe had a connection with the loss of sea-ice in the Arctic. The cold winters were associated with a persistent ‘blocking event’, bringing in cold air over Europe from the north and the east.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/12/cold-winter-in-a-world-of-warming/

Arctic sea ice is continuing its seemingly interminable decline, and it looks like the loss could be contributing to the recent spate of cold winters over northern Europe and North America

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21521-melting-sea-ice-could-trigger-colder-winters.html

Now you can still try and say the winters are not colder, but as I said, it is making you look bad.

"The study adds weight to growing belief that Arctic sea ice is driving an increase of cold winters," says Adam Scaife of the UK Met Office. His team has also found evidence to support such a link.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21521-melting-sea-ice-could-trigger-colder-winters.html
It's right there. No, they are not saying the world is cooling, they are saying that the winters have become colder, in the Americas, Europe, China, Russia, that kind of thing. For the entire northern hemisphere to be colder is impossible. It's over the land masses.

And it's theorized that warming is causing the cooling, as in colder winters. Don't live in denial.[/quote]

 

[r-j]

After I mentioned the colder winters in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, and of course this was greeted with derision and disbelief, my posts were, as always, about the science.

tell me again that winters have been getting colder.

For most scientists his reasoning doesn't add up, but Boris did get one thing right: winters are getting colder.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/2013/feb/01/weatherwatch-boris-johnson-cold-winter

As global temperatures rise, a new study indicates that winters in the northern hemisphere are set to get colder and snowier. Data from the last two decades suggests that this colder trend is already under way. Indeed the chilly winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 caused many to question whether global warming was happening at all.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/2012/jan/22/weatherwatch-global-warming-climate-change

The world is getting warmer, which should mean warmer winters - right? Wrong - a new study shows that global warming produces colder winters and heavier dumps of snow for large swathes of the northern hemisphere
http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/48293

The world is warming, so why have winters been getting colder across much of Eurasia?
http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/52135

See? Now, after we all get over the shock, we can start complaining about global warming while we are buried in snow.

source

"Recent severe winters like last year's or the one of 2005-2006 do not conflict with the global warming picture, but rather supplement it," explained Vladimir Petoukhov, lead author of the study and a physicist at the Potsdam Institute.

"These anomalies could triple the probability of cold winter extremes in Europe and north Asia," he said.

http://news.discovery.com/earth/cold-winter-snow-weather-global-warming-101222.htm

Clearly cold winters are the next horror that global warming will bring upon us. Warming causes cooling!

That line of reasoning would help explain why the Northern Hemisphere has seen a trend of more extreme winter weather — both bitter cold spells and heavy snows — since around 1988, the researchers say.

“(E)vidence suggests that summer and autumn warming trends are concurrent with increases in high-latitude moisture and an increase in Eurasian snow cover,” they write in an article published in Environmental Research Letters. And that, they continue, “dynamically induces large-scale wintertime cooling.”

There you go: warming causes cooling.

http://www.greenbang.com/global-warming-might-cause-colder-winters-more-snow_21263.html

See? So quit complaining that your roof collapsed from record snow, you can't get a flight or even drive anywhere, and start doing something about global warming. Because it's really starting to mess with the weather.

source

Those sources mention, among other things, two different scientific papers that propose the trend of colder winters may be caused by low arctic ice levels.

The result, according to a modeling study published earlier this month the Journal of Geophysical Research, is a strong high-pressure system over the newly exposed sea which brings cold polar air, swirling counter-clockwise, into Europe.
"Recent severe winters like last year's or the one of 2005-2006 do not conflict with the global warming picture, but rather supplement it," explained Vladimir Petoukhov, lead author of the study and a physicist at the Potsdam Institute.

http://news.discovery.com/earth/cold-winter-snow-weather-global-warming-101222.htm

and of course Cohen et al

Now, new research suggests that some of the cold, snowy winters that parts of the world have seen lately aren’t due just to random variations, but could in fact be caused by climate change. Yes, global warming might be causing more cooling and snow.

http://www.greenbang.com/global-warming-might-cause-colder-winters-more-snow_21263.html

And of course I stated clearly the winter trend might be due to warming.

Talking about the stupid started after the wholesale denial of the science happened.

 

[ideogram]

Thank you r-j, that is a convincing argument that winters have become colder.

I presume the other argument is over, since you won't be citing sources in that case.

 

[r-j]

I presume the other argument is over, since you won't be citing sources in that case.

If you say something like "the other argument", you need to link or explain what you mean.

There are a half dozen going on at the moment.

The realclimate link I used that was from 2010, says " It will be interesting to see if this winter will break with previous patterns – if it does, that could be interpreted as a support of Petoukhov and Semenov hypothesis."

We have 5 more winters since then, and it's quite interesting what happened.

 

[DC]

If you say something like "the other argument", you need to link or explain what you mean.

There are a half dozen going on at the moment.

The realclimate link I used that was from 2010, says " It will be interesting to see if this winter will break with previous patterns – if it does, that could be interpreted as a support of Petoukhov and Semenov hypothesis."

We have 5 more winters since then, and it's quite interesting what happened.

why did you compare sat based temperature data with landbased temperature measurements? and why did you choose the RSS data which is an outliner compared to all other datasets? do you have a good reason for this?