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Global warming discussion III

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Trakar said:
What "hiatus" are you going on about?
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This "hiatus" that this paper attempts to explain. One of the 50 odd explanations (so far) from the warmist crowd ;)

Climate science: The cause of the pause
Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century1, 2, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming3, 4, 5, 6, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970–2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.
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The Pacific Ocean falling on my chickens and drowning my early spring flowers disproves your last thingie.
 
I'm telling you that warm Pacific evaporation has raised nearby streams to above flood stage. I live in high-plains prairie. We don't get rain like this very often but when we do it's because warm Pacific Ocean is dumping water into my dirt.
 
Haig said:
This "hiatus" that this paper attempts to explain. One of the 50 odd explanations (so far) from the warmist crowd ;)

Climate science: The cause of the pause
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what you reference is natural variation, the specific elements that result in natural variation do not negate their independent consideration. If you are convinced by extremes of deviation and the time since that extreme has been exceeded,...in the graph presented, the coldest point of the last 130 years occurred 128 years ago and minimal temperatures increased by about 1.5oC over that time period at an ever accelerating rate. That there are a confluence of complicated natural cycles and systems that influence, and are influenced by, human carbon emissions does not refute nor address the issue that increasing fossil fuel emissions are damaging our economy, our citizenry and our national security.

The Climate Casino by William Nordhaus- http://www.npr.org/books/titles/272...nty-and-economics-for-a-warming-world#excerpt

You have full text access to this OnlineOpen article
Is climate change the greatest threat to global health? - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geoj.12127/full

Global health security: the wider lessons from the west African Ebola virus disease epidemic - http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(15)60858-3.pdf

Climate Change and National Defense
http://cleantechnica.com/2015/02/20/us-navy-launches-another-salvo-climate-change-denial/

Climate Change and National Security
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0cq4r57r#page-2

Arming Mother Nature: The Birth of Catastrophic Environmentalism -
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/30/opinion/ecology-lessons-from-the-cold-war.html?_r=0
 
Look at the y-axis value for the horizontal line on the graph. It's not showing a pause. The graph is used to trick the innumerate.

This has been pointed out multiple times to Haig, and he still uses that graph.
 
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Several statistics remain constant .....

--- One-hundred percent of the world's climate scientists agree the only possible remedy for global warming is global socialism.

--- Proponents of Global warming are furious at any hint of even the slightest amount of cooling

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--- Proponents of Global warming are furious at any hint of even the slightest amount of cooling
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if you could find some people would be quite pleased....the reality is otherwise. Those that live in fantasy land should not cast aspersions. :rolleyes:
 
Arnold Martin said:
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Several statistics remain constant .....

--- One-hundred percent of the world's climate scientists agree the only possible remedy for global warming is global socialism.

--- Proponents of Global warming are furious at any hint of even the slightest amount of cooling

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You apparently wouldn't recognize a statistic if you were slapped across the face with it,

(hint: a fact or piece of data from a study of a large quantity of numerical data.)

by your own logic climate scientists only push global warming to gain the untold trillions they secretly get in exchange for promoting climate change and since socialism would result in them getting no money, they obviously must hate socialism. Likewise, since your own method of assessing temperature trends indicates that the coldest temperature on our planet in the last 130 years happened 128 years ago and the coldest temperatures have warmed by more than a degree and a half since then and that coldest temp has not been reached or approached since that time 128 years ago. Therefore, according to the methods promoted by the pseudoscience denialists, there has not been any cooling of significance in 128 years.
 
Arnold Martin said:
--- Proponents of Global warming are furious at any hint of even the slightest amount of cooling
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I don't know about that. Here in southwestern Pennsylvania, we're starting another week of 80-90 degree temperatures. That's anywhere from 5-15 degrees above average for this time of year. And that's after only a few days respite. Most days this month have been that hot. I believe we've even broken a few daily record highs for May.

I, personally, would welcome a little cooling.
 
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Haig said:
Care to comment on the hunt for the missing heat due to the Pause / Hiatus ?
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Easy: You are repeating a fantasy that there was a Pause / Hiatus in global warming - it was a slowdown in the warming of the surface, Haig :p!

This is valid science:
Tracking the Missing Heat from the Global Warming Hiatus (really needs quote around the 'Hiatus" but this is just a title)
At the end of the 20th century, climate scientists noticed what they thought at first was an anomaly: a slowdown in the pace of global warming in the lower atmosphere. Today, it is a recognized trend that has lasted more than 15 years. Perplexed, oceanographers are on a hunt to find where this missing heat has gone.
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Haig said:
This "hiatus" that this paper attempts to explain. One of the 50 odd explanations (so far) from the warmist crowd ;)
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We have the paranoia of "warmist crowd" (even with the smillie), the citing of a lying political web site in a science thread and maybe the delusion that science should not be done, Haig :eek:!
These idiots that you are citing Haig
* lie about that there has been no global warming in the last 215 months - which even you know to be a lie.
* are so deluded that they think that every paper on the slowdown in the rise of surface temperatures is a different explanation!

Some science from a year ago: Climate science: The cause of the pause. However the authors claim "Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century1, 2" which is not supported by their citations
1. Is the climate warming or cooling? shows that it is likely that future periods of a decade or two could show no or cooling trends within the warming trend.
2. Global temperature evolution 1979–2010: "All five series show consistent global warming trends ranging from 0.014 to 0.018 K yr−1." from 1979–and "global warming signal becomes even more evident as noise is reduced" :eek:!
 
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Arnold Martin said:
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dot



Delusional statements remain consistent from you, Arnold Martin :p!
  • Climate scientists come from various political backgrounds and so it is a delusion that 100% of them could agree with any politics.
  • Only 97% of climate scientists agree that AGW is happening - the other 3% (or a subset) probably say there is no remedy possible because we are not causing global warming!
  • No one supports global warming because global warming is a bad thing - there are no "Proponents of Global warming".
    There are climate scientists and rational people who look at the evidence for global warming and say that there is overwhelming evidence that global warming exists.
  • Everyone should be furious (excluding you Arnold Martin :D) about ignorant, deluded or lying statements, e.g. that it is cooling when the temperature record shows that it is warming (unless you lie about the trend by cherry picking the start date and/or dataset).

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Arnold Martin said:
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"Never seen before" .... Lake Superior Ice cover almost 100% in 2015...

I recall the 2014 ice cover broke records also .... trend ??

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Coldest start to winter with biggest May snowfalls for years in New Zealand.

Let's face it, we're headed for another ice age.
 
Yes Arnold it's a trend ...it's called the Arctic Dipole....it's been explained to you any number times. And no it's not getting colder globally...:rolleyes:
Just ask Alaska how warm it was last winter.

••••

Meanwhile 2015 is blowing all the numbers for BOTH ocean and SST

NOAA1-42015.jpg


heat_content2000m.jpg
 
Arnold Martin said:
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"Never seen before" ....
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Actual words used in article :
"Paul Berger, a Thunder Bay resident, said he’d “encountered ice like we’ve never seen it before,” while kayaking near the Sand Islands east of Silver Islet."
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It's not a long article, people were bound to notice, but you tried it on anyway.

Lake Superior Ice cover almost 100% in 2015
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Beginning of (short) article :
Lake Superior, the largest of the great lakes, froze almost completely this winter, for the first time in years.
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So what's been going on for those years? Lake Superior used to ice over pretty regularly.


I recall the 2014 ice cover broke records ...
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That's a false memory.
trend ??.
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Desperate?
 
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