Global warming discussion III

[CapelDodger]

Yes. But when all the glaciers melt year after year it is climate.

That.

 

[lomiller]

So when a glacier melts it is just local weather ?

Currently at least 90% of glaciers all around the world are receding to levels not seen in thousands of years. By definition, this is not local.

 

[lomiller]

You cannot reliably conclude anything about climate change from a single event. To detect an underlying trend you need to look at all such events over periods of decades.

You can compare a single event to the established pattern of events and find out just how unlikely that event would be in a warming vs non-warming world. If the likelihood is sufficiently under the "not warming" scenario is sufficiently low you can still conclude that the only credible alternative is that the climate is warming.

Technically thought, you are not looking at a single event, you still need to loom at all the other events to find the distribution and probability of extreme events.

 

[Red Baron Farms]

Close....when the total mass of glaciers declines over decades either globally or in a large region it is climate or local climate.

Some glaciers are gaining mass due to more moisture in the atmosphere.

The exception that proves the rule?

 

[bit_pattern]

.

Bit Pattern

Where did you find that graph ? .... the only one I could find looks like this

.

It's the same graph - yours plots the long term average coverage, mine plots the long term downward trend.

 

[Pixel42]

It's the same graph - yours plots the long term average coverage, mine plots the long term downward trend.

To be nitpicky, it"s the same graph up to 2013; AM's includes 2014.

 

[bit_pattern]

To be nitpicky, it"s the same graph up to 2013; AM's includes 2014.

Indeed.

 

[BStrong]

I'm not well enough educated to have any valid opinion on the subject matter, but my knee-jerk hardcore conservative coworker made a point today about how the predicted east coast snowstorm is evidence that global warming is a fraud.

When I asked him if he knew the difference between weather and climate he gave me the malocchio.

 

[macdoc]

It appears The Great Lakes continue to be disobedient

The winter of 2014 had the second highest ice coverage on record at 92.2 percent on March 6, 2014

How many times do you need to told that cool continents in NA winter are an aspect of AGW discussed here numerous times.

Warm Arctic, Cold Continents - NOAA
www.noaa.gov/.../war...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Feb 28, 2011 - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States ... It's a puzzle: How could warmth in the Arctic produce frigid conditions elsewhere? ... and mid- latitude continents were 9 degrees F cooler than normal, with ...

If you can't get the simple things like the relationship between CO2 and IR sttraight ..how do expect to comprehend any climate science at all.
What are you doing in a science forum without a shred of basics?.

 

[macdoc]

I'm not well enough educated to have any valid opinion on the subject matter, but my knee-jerk hardcore conservative coworker made a point today about how the predicted east coast snowstorm is evidence that global warming is a fraud.

More frequent severe events ( rain or snow ) are an aspect of AGW that was both predicted and is observed as there is about 5% more moisture in the atmosphere and more energetic weather systems.

Global warming means more snowstorms: scientists - Phys.org
phys.org › Earth › Environment
Phys.org

Mar 1, 2011 - Climate change is not only making the planet warmer, it is also making snowstorms stronger and more frequent, US scientists said on Tuesday.

http://phys.org/news/2011-03-global-snowstorms-scientists.html

You are correct, it IS weather, but weather influenced by global warming.....more intense....maybe historically so.

 

[bit_pattern]

Is Paraguay proof that NOAA is manipulating temperature data?

 

[Trakar]

Is Paraguay proof that NOAA is manipulating temperature data?

I applaud the find and detailed explanation. I take it this is in response to some detraction/contention?

 

[bit_pattern]

I applaud the find and detailed explanation. I take it this is in response to some detraction/contention?

Yeah, Christopher Booker in The Telegraph

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2015/01/25/puerto-casado/

 

[Trakar]

Yeah, Christopher Booker in The Telegraph

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2015/01/25/puerto-casado/

Ah! I have amended my old policy and have begun spending some time back with my old compatriots at SKS and RC, but with so many of the individual blogs having changed names and affiliations and so many new blogs (and researchers) joining the fray, I simply don't have the time to vet and visit them all,...many thanks to those who can spend more time in these efforts and have the generosity to share with the rest of us!

 

[bit_pattern]

I saw it on SKS

 

[CapelDodger]

I'm not well enough educated to have any valid opinion on the subject matter, but my knee-jerk hardcore conservative coworker made a point today about how the predicted east coast snowstorm is evidence that global warming is a fraud.

Slightly amusing use of the predicted snowstorm when another AGW denial theme is that "they can't predict the weather tomorrow, so how can they predict climate in 2100?". All they had to do was wait a day to see which tack to take but that requires a smidgen of impulse control and some people just don't have any.

 

[CapelDodger]

Ah! I have amended my old policy and have begun spending some time back with my old compatriots at SKS and RC ...

I usually check SkS daily and RC maybe weekly. To keep a weather-eye on the denier world I go to HotWhopper http://blog.hotwhopper.com/.

Time was one could find all the latest denialisms here, of course, but I'm sure Haig would agree he's an outlier even in that camp, and apart from Haig it's just drive-by's.

 

[not_so_new]

.

It appears The Great Lakes continue to be disobedient

The winter of 2014 had the second highest ice coverage on record at 92.2 percent on March 6, 2014.

The Great Lakes were 21.2 percent ice-covered on Jan. 14, 2014

The Great Lakes were 34.1 percent ice-covered on Jan. 14, 2015

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...kes-ice-makes-a-leap-after-january-cold-snap/

.

As someone who lived about 5 miles away from Lake Erie for 25 or so years I can say that without a doubt there is a marked difference between the ice coverage when I was younger and what I see now when I make the 2 hour trip to visit my mother.

That isn't scientific evidence of anything at all, but it is something I have first hand experience with.

 

[CapelDodger]

Global warming won't mean more storms: Big storms to get bigger, small storms to shrink, experts predict
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/01/150129143040.htm

A study led by atmospheric physicists at the University of Toronto finds that global warming will not lead to an overall increasingly stormy atmosphere, a topic debated by scientists for decades. Instead, strong storms will become stronger while weak storms become weaker, and the cumulative result of the number of storms will remain unchanged.

Here's the abstract :

Constrained work output of the moist atmospheric heat engine in a warming climate
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6221/540

Incoming and outgoing solar radiation couple with heat exchange at Earth’s surface to drive weather patterns that redistribute heat and moisture around the globe, creating an atmospheric heat engine. Here, we investigate the engine’s work output using thermodynamic diagrams computed from reanalyzed observations and from a climate model simulation with anthropogenic forcing. We show that the work output is always less than that of an equivalent Carnot cycle and that it is constrained by the power necessary to maintain the hydrological cycle. In the climate simulation, the hydrological cycle increases more rapidly than the equivalent Carnot cycle. We conclude that the intensification of the hydrological cycle in warmer climates might limit the heat engine’s ability to generate work.

Well, duh.

No, I'm not even going there, despite a reasonable grasp of thermodynamics and heat engines. Hopefully a comprehensible precis and critique will appear somewhere soon.

It would be interesting to know if there's enough data from thirty years of appreciable greenhouse warming to test the conclusion. Airports have have been using radar to measure storm-intensities for that long, I'd have thought, but I don't suppose the data has been conserved. No obvious need to back then, before climate change was a thing. So it goes.

 

[Arnold Martin]

.

The science of bio-fuels proves problematic ....

A new report sites numerous examples of what it describes as ... "misguided approaches to fighting global warming"

Some of the biofuel policies in the West go back a decade or longer, adopted on the basis of claims in the scientific literature that turning plant material into fuel would help lower emissions of carbon dioxide.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/29/s...ments-to-reconsider-reliance-on-biofuels.html

.