Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation

[Trakar]

Your first paragraph was helpful, Thank you for answering the question I asked.

Second paragraph was unneeded, and uncalled for. I never "Argued", I only asked.

In science, a proposal, is an "argument." I had no intention of mischaracterizing your statements and questions.

For further clarification, assessing isotopic source of atmospheric CO2 is accomplished by looking at the ratios of C12, C13, and C14 and comparing these ratios from active carbon cycle sources and from sources where the various radioactive isotopes have had a chance to decay, altering the ratios from when that carbon was a part of the active carbon cycle. Even though the carbon volume in our atmosphere is increasing, the isotopic ratios are shifting in the atmospheric fraction indicating that the source of most of this extra carbon is coming from long sequestered carbon sources, the adjusting ratios are consistent with amounts of human generated carbon from records of fossil fuel feedstock accounted in business records and the isotopic concentration ratios of those fossil fuel sources.

 

[macdoc]

Something wicked this way comes....hang on to your hat....El Nino lurks...

El Niño could raise meteorological hell this year

By John Upton
It’s more likely than not that El Niño will rise from the Pacific Ocean this year — and some scientists are warning that it could grow into a bona fide monster.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center put out a bulletin Thursday saying there’s a greater than 50 percent chance that El Niño will develop later this year. Australian government meteorologists are even more confident — they said earlier this week that there’s a greater than 70 percent chance that El Niño will develop this summer.

more

http://grist.org/news/el-nino-could-raise-meteorological-hell-this-year/

The big blob of warm water is likely to erupt....stay tuned..

 

[greybeard]

The funny thing is that even the denier blogs seem to be preparing themselves for record temperatures if we have an extreme el nino event. Which makes me wonder whether they actually believe that the earth isn't warming significantly. Some even want us to believe the world is cooling. They are really not consistent.

 

[macdoc]

Yes they are .....consistently whacked.

 

[r-j]

http://snltranscripts.jt.org/97/97delnino.phtml
Anchor: Welcome to "WeatherScope". The biggest news this season, undoubtedly, the huge mass of warm Pacific water known as El Nino. Though it has caused torrential downpours in the Pacific region, El Nino has also dominated many tropical storms, preventing them from becoming hurricanes. In a dramatic development, the Weather Channel has captured the following satellite images of the mysterious phenomenon known as.. El Nino.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvmeUStFvz8

 

[lomiller]

The funny thing is that even the denier blogs seem to be preparing themselves for record temperatures if we have an extreme el nino event. Which makes me wonder whether they actually believe that the earth isn't warming significantly. Some even want us to believe the world is cooling. They are really not consistent.

They are very consistent. When there are new records it’s just weather, when that record isn’t broken it’s cooling...

 

[Warmer1]

The reef die off that I witnessed during the 1998 El-Nino event is what started my studies of global warming. The reefs I used to dive sometimes six days a week did not bleach but the lobe corals fell over flattening out the coral structures and coral diseases became rampant.

Reports came in from around the world of Asian and Australian reefs bleaching. The Great Barrier Reef has bleached five times already.

Coral reefs can only withstand about a 1+ degree Celsius spike in temperature before they bleach. Coral bleaching hot spots can be observed during the El-Nino event here.

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/hotspot.php

 

[Warmer1]

The Berkeley Earth Temperature animation is interesting to look at to observe previous El_Nino temperature anomalies by region. If you watch for the hot spot in the Pacific Ocean just west of Peru the temperature anomalies for your region can be seen. Canada should experience warmer weather and US weather will be more erratic.

One significant El-Nino event is recorded on the year just above the 95 of the 95% Confidence range tag on the bottom, and of course the most famous is the 1998 event.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myZJrVWyuTg

 

[Warmer1]

Thanks for posting the "Years of Living Dangerously" Trakar.

http://yearsoflivingdangerously.com/

I thought this may become a big game changer for the general public's understanding of the issue but there were only 250,000 ish viewers of the first episode. The number of viewers was disappointing but not as disheartening as the overly simplistic attitudes of the people in Texas. People just aren't intelligent enough to understand the science.

A recent survey conducted at Yale University indicated that only 15% of the population has a grasp on the urgency of the problem.

I"m hoping the global coral reef loss during this El-Nino event will be well documented but I kind of doubt that most people will understand the implications of the world's reefs dying off. Spikes in ocean heat could also spell disaster for other bases of the food chain such as Krill, Copepods, and Plankton when combined with ocean acidification.

The average temperature is much higher now than in 1998 so it will be interesting to see what happens if there is a big spike in temperature in the oceans like there was in 1998. Corals may succumb to the heat much more quickly.

Interesting times!

 

[r-j]

The average temperature is much higher now than in 1998

http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1998

http://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1998

http://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1998

Oh yes, we are doomed,

 

[Corsair 115]

Need it even be pointed out the intellectual dishonesty of starting any temperature graph with 1998, a well-known outlier year? It's like starting a graph of Babe Ruth's home run seasons with 1927.

 

[a_unique_person]

http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1998

http://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1998

http://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1998

Oh yes, we are doomed,

You should add the trend plot to those graphs. You may be surprised at the result.

 

[Warmer1]

http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1998

http://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1998

http://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1998

Oh yes, we are doomed,

I made a mistake and r-j has noticed.

I should have stated that total present day total average global temperatures are much warmer than the total average global temperatures prior to the spike in temperature that occurred as a result of the 1998 El-Nino event.

This is a shift in heat on a global scale as the Earth's temperatures continue to rise.

The increase that occurred in 1998 is so significant that deniers still cling to using the very highest peak in that temperature spike to try and dispel the fact that global temperatures are rising, as many posters have pointed out and tried to correct previously in this thread.

Again, corals expel their zooxanthellae when there is less than a two degree Celsius increase in temperature and the baseline temperatures are now hotter so it will be interesting to see how intense this El-Nino is, and how many countries in the Indo-Pacific will lose coral reefs due to bleaching.

Thanks again r-j for noticing my mistake and illustrating once again one of the last vestiges of climate change denial which is left.

 

[a_unique_person]

I made a mistake and r-j has noticed.

I should have stated that total present day total average global temperatures are much warmer than the total average global temperatures prior to the spike in temperature that occurred as a result of the 1998 El-Nino event.

This is a shift in heat on a global scale as the Earth's temperatures continue to rise.

The increase that occurred in 1998 is so significant that deniers still cling to using the very highest peak in that temperature spike to try and dispel the fact that global temperatures are rising, as many posters have pointed out and tried to correct previously in this thread.

Again, corals expel their zooxanthellae when there is less than a two degree Celsius increase in temperature and the baseline temperatures are now hotter so it will be interesting to see how intense this El-Nino is, and how many countries in the Indo-Pacific will lose coral reefs due to bleaching.

Thanks again r-j for noticing my mistake and illustrating once again one of the last vestiges of climate change denial which is left.

Even with the cherry picking, two of those graphs have a postive temperature trend.

http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1998/trend
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1998/trend

 

[Trakar]

Thanks for posting the "Years of Living Dangerously" Trakar.

http://yearsoflivingdangerously.com/

I thought this may become a big game changer for the general public's understanding of the issue but there were only 250,000 ish viewers of the first episode. The number of viewers was disappointing but not as disheartening as the overly simplistic attitudes of the people in Texas. People just aren't intelligent enough to understand the science.

A recent survey conducted at Yale University indicated that only 15% of the population has a grasp on the urgency of the problem.

I"m hoping the global coral reef loss during this El-Nino event will be well documented but I kind of doubt that most people will understand the implications of the world's reefs dying off. Spikes in ocean heat could also spell disaster for other bases of the food chain such as Krill, Copepods, and Plankton when combined with ocean acidification.

The average temperature is much higher now than in 1998 so it will be interesting to see what happens if there is a big spike in temperature in the oceans like there was in 1998. Corals may succumb to the heat much more quickly.

Interesting times!

Self-culling is a natural aspect of successful populations, when they exceed the capacity of their biome to support their behaviors.


A case can be made that much off AGW is the result of modern medical understandings and applications.


A major global pandemic, or three, might do a lot to change the nature of many of the perceptions we currently hold about the future.


So might a major thermonuclear war between India and China.


The possibilities are almost without limit.

(sorry, bad week,...that's a little gloomy doomy even for me!)

Don't be disparaged by the Showtime initial numbers. It's a premium channel that has yet to make a big documentary name for itself. IMO, this multipart mini-series of extremely well produced and big name featured episodes may well change the general public impression of documentaries in general, as well as bring focus to climate change. Let it run and rerun its course for a few cycles.

 

[Trakar]

I made a mistake and r-j has noticed.

I should have stated that total present day total average global temperatures are much warmer than the total average global temperatures prior to the spike in temperature that occurred as a result of the 1998 El-Nino event.

This is a shift in heat on a global scale as the Earth's temperatures continue to rise.

The increase that occurred in 1998 is so significant that deniers still cling to using the very highest peak in that temperature spike to try and dispel the fact that global temperatures are rising, as many posters have pointed out and tried to correct previously in this thread.

Again, corals expel their zooxanthellae when there is less than a two degree Celsius increase in temperature and the baseline temperatures are now hotter so it will be interesting to see how intense this El-Nino is, and how many countries in the Indo-Pacific will lose coral reefs due to bleaching.

Thanks again r-j for noticing my mistake and illustrating once again one of the last vestiges of climate change denial which is left.

We'll see if the trend they assert (even conditionally excepting the inherent error in fact and methodology) holds up over climatically significant time-frames*.


*Usually, climate is measured for a specific area or region based on weather patterns over a 30-35 year time period. - http://geography.about.com/od/climate/a/climateoverview.htm

 

[Warmer1]

I wonder if when children learn about AGW they will act like this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eH3zQa39LAQthe

 

[Armitage72]

Yesterday afternoon I was listening to AM radio and a climate change denier was complaining that too many people accept climate change claims without checking the facts for themselves.

He then stated that the Antarctic ice sheet is larger than it has ever been in the 30+ years that we've been recording its expanse...without citing any source that the listeners could use to "check the facts for themselves".

He also argued that the arctic ice levels aren't diminishing. They naturally fluctuate year-to-year and current ice levels are above average. Unfortunately, he didn't provide any information on the nature of the "average" that he was referencing.

• The average over the last 30 years?
• The average over the last 3 years?
• The ice levels at this exact moment, just after the end of winter, are above the average for the entire year of 2013?

No idea. He didn't say.

Remember, it's important to check facts. Just not his facts.

 

[Trakar]

Yesterday afternoon I was listening to AM radio and a climate change denier was complaining that too many people accept climate change claims without checking the facts for themselves...

Enquiring minds want to know,...what bizarre set of circumstances forced you to listen to AM radio?

 

[Armitage72]

Enquiring minds want to know,...what bizarre set of circumstances forced you to listen to AM radio?

Morbid curiosity while driving home from work, mostly.
"What are they ranting about today?"...listen for a few minutes...go back to music.

Unfortunately, the entertaining afternoon religious program that talked about things like the conspiracy between NASA, the ESA, and the Vatican to pass off demons as aliens, or how the world is going to end any day now, doesn't air any more.