aleCcowaN
imperfecto del subjuntivo
Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation
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macdoc
Philosopher
Well as far as the jet stream goes just now...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25511818
It's ROCKIN'!!!!!!
Seems to me that with stalled highs and the Arctic dipole ......the gradient is steeper not shallower.
If the continents are colder and the cold sitting further south thanks to the warmer Arctic....sure seems a recipe for stronger storms and a faster jet stream.
My backyard can attest to the severity of this particular event...
Half million without power...
http://phys.org/news/2013-12-ice-storm-500k-power-canada.html
even made Phys.org.
and more to come.
The temperature gradient between New York at 21C and Montreal at -7C was wild - they are only a few hundred KM apart.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25511818
It's ROCKIN'!!!!!!
Seems to me that with stalled highs and the Arctic dipole ......the gradient is steeper not shallower.
If the continents are colder and the cold sitting further south thanks to the warmer Arctic....sure seems a recipe for stronger storms and a faster jet stream.
My backyard can attest to the severity of this particular event...
Half million without power...
http://phys.org/news/2013-12-ice-storm-500k-power-canada.html
even made Phys.org.
and more to come.
The temperature gradient between New York at 21C and Montreal at -7C was wild - they are only a few hundred KM apart.
Meanwhile, this paper just out suggests Solar activity IS a key cause of climate change ...
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/4/045032/pdf/1748-9326_8_4_045032.pdf
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A Science discussion of climate change based on mainstream science needs to consider this...
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/4/045032/pdf/1748-9326_8_4_045032.pdf
DC
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what exactly is a key cause, what is the definition of key cause?
how do you know it is a key cause, when this is not even quantified? the letter doesn't even say how much of an influence it has. do you have a peer reviewed study that would also show how much this influence is?
DC
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how much influence does this effect have? how much of the onserved warming can it explain? got any study on that?
aleCcowaN
imperfecto del subjuntivo
I have a nice bridge that I want to sell to you at a very special price because you're my pal. It's orange and it crosses the bay ....
Do you remember when I proved global warming was caused by the raise in Buenos Aires' population? It was at the time of the AK-index discussion. Now the interplanetary electric field replaces the AK-index. The usual claim on cosmic rays and low cloud cover is kept.
There are many layers here: you always can abstract the solar cycle with the proper filter and any decent solar proxy. I had explained it many times, do you remember?:
There would be a notable cheekness in this paper if it consists in trimming their own data to get a correlation on which some conclusion is to be based. However, the paper is prudent about that (emphasis mine):
leaving the cheekness to those who cite the paper the way you did. Imagine the ridiculous methods of cutting a series in half and finding a correlation in one half (the >0 anomaly) but not in the other half (the <0 anomaly). Does the planet say "I'm feeling anomalous now so I'll scratch myself with some more clouds"? But clearly the planet knows of calendars (emphasis mine):
It's interesting that Jules Galen has named the Texan sharpshooter falacy as in this case the dataset is shrunk several times with different criteria until it shows some "statistically significant" relation of unknown cause. In a Mexican paper from 2006 similar to this that I've read they used a 12-year moving average to subtract the solar cycle, and the correlation disappeared (showing there's nothing new under the sun). Was that done here? Then, tell me where.
So the paper reminds me the Slovakian angelologist who still uses these fora in his website to prove there's a cyclic pulse in history of angelical origin. His conclusions were driven by the very mathematical artefact he used to concoct his research. The mathematical version of the tea leaves at the cup's bottom with the "expert" interpreting.
Where did you think the heat came from? Anyway, good of you to have brought this paper here as it elevates the quality of the debate and gives us something to work on instead of replying the usual brays and croaks of the wanting denialist side.
aleCcowaN
imperfecto del subjuntivo
The same problems that a person who wants to wear a fur coat made from bred animals -which also used for meat-: people throwing paint.
aleCcowaN
imperfecto del subjuntivo
9:10 AM local time (8:15AM real local time) and the temperature is already here 94°F. No cold front nor storm nor even a shower in sight. Wish us luck.
As BBC tells, extreme weather phenomena around the world during Xmas: cold and snow in the NH and hot and floods in the SH. Even Paraguay -a subtropical country- is claiming an unusual death toll because of the heat (temperatures up to 113°F around 25°S)
As BBC tells, extreme weather phenomena around the world during Xmas: cold and snow in the NH and hot and floods in the SH. Even Paraguay -a subtropical country- is claiming an unusual death toll because of the heat (temperatures up to 113°F around 25°S)
Jules Galen
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Try turning on your Air Conditioner.
aleCcowaN
imperfecto del subjuntivo
The only one I have now it's on. It's in what I call "the climate safe room" used in emergencies. Like this 12-day and counting record breaking heat wave. Heat waves here are 3 or more days in a row with both highs above 32°C (90°F) and lows above 22°C (72°F). We're currently in red alert, as we've been in yellow and orange alert the days before. Typically a red alert implies the number of deaths raising from 90 a day to 250. And that's just in downtown and midtown Buenos Aires -think of Manhattan or les 20 arrondissement de Paris-. The metropolitan area has 5 times that population and the region about 8 times. So do your calculations. Fortunately for the denialist crowd the statistics will be ready too late for it to be part of the news, so specialists will learn probably during March that maybe 2, 3 or 4,000 people had died here during this heath wave.
aleCcowaN
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Good to know you have nothing to comment about your many errors in the climate change subject that you have been made aware so far. Not denying your training in dialectics is also good.
DC
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is water vapor a GHG?
macdoc
Philosopher
Is this main stream climate science?? The authors acknowledge it is weak and has been shown to be flawed in the past.
Better in the other thread where alternative explanations are "rife".
This thread I'm endeavouring to keep at both mainstream and technical aspects of the AGW i.e. Arctic Dipole implications in extreme weather. Specific effect on the SE Asian monsoon.
So warming is a given. The reason for it is a given.
Outcomes and regional impacts are very much in assessment and observation stage with little in the way of prediction on any sort of a meaningful local scale akin to say what La Nina does in South America.
So a line of discussion might be based ona known impact of LaNina is there an observed trend in severity and.or frequency of La Nina events due to AGW.
There is an unxplained seasonal drop in C02 levels in the Arctic - what is the mechanism, implications.??
These particular conversations will require some techical knowledge and some base knowledge about C02, latent heat, albedo, perhaps Rossby waves, PDO and NA) and Enso, stratospheric cooling etc.
This should encourage the more knowledgeable to be willing to spend the time explaining with out constant disruption of a particular conversation.
Now about that gradient and the jet stream....observation seems at odds with theory of a weakening....
Dancing David
Penultimate Amazing
I just have to say that people who complain about the IPCC reports have generally not actually read them, thanks for the thread.
Dancing David
Penultimate Amazing
Haig is a fanatic in their posting style, they just spam dump and are incapable of discussing the ideas they present or defending them.
What causes climate change is completely irrelevant!
Who causes it is completely irrelevant!
If it's happening at one rate as opposed to another rate is irrelevant!
But this fact is completely indisputable, "Human beings are the only thing on the planet that can change it's behavior, thus it is our responsibility to do so, if there is anything the human race can to to improve the situation we are obliged to do it".
We need to stop arguing about the "peace conference" seating arrangement and get our arses to work.
Who causes it is completely irrelevant!
If it's happening at one rate as opposed to another rate is irrelevant!
But this fact is completely indisputable, "Human beings are the only thing on the planet that can change it's behavior, thus it is our responsibility to do so, if there is anything the human race can to to improve the situation we are obliged to do it".
We need to stop arguing about the "peace conference" seating arrangement and get our arses to work.
macdoc
Philosopher
Kedo - that is mainly policy and while I agree with your sentiment policy is a different set of issues tho there is some science involved.
Capturing C02 may be more cost effective .....
ie building out a grid in India versus employing solar it part science part policy
It is extremely relevant as there is a cost to dealing with the various outcomes...and for Bhutan sea level rise is not an issue but for Bangladesh it is.
You cannot do all things at once and science has some answers on "best path" for different regions.
We need to understand the science of AGW to deal with it.
no it's not as we have to identify the levers and some are not obvious...ie reducing methane may be more effective than C02
Capturing C02 may be more cost effective .....
to a point and again science can offer a choice of effective solutions for a particular situation.
ie building out a grid in India versus employing solar it part science part policy
It is extremely relevant as there is a cost to dealing with the various outcomes...and for Bhutan sea level rise is not an issue but for Bangladesh it is.
You cannot do all things at once and science has some answers on "best path" for different regions.
We need to understand the science of AGW to deal with it.
Trakar
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In general, a "warmer arctic" is a relative term. The key issue is that it is the average gradient between the equator and poles that drive the currents. Its all about distributing the energy. As the poles are warming so much more than the equator, the gradient is become lower, so the velocity of the jet streams should be dropping (on average). Of course, with seasons and the roaming wander path, there will be variations on local/regional scales. It is more the path and the nature of the kinks in the atmospheric currents that create the weather expression extremes you are talking about,...or, at the least, this is my understanding.
Trakar
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I've skimmed the article but haven't given it a detailed examination, yet. It seems to identify a weak correlation between low level cloud cover in the polar region and the interplanetary magnetic field, while ruling out any correlation between that field and any other cloud layer level in any other region of the globe. I did not see a discussion of mechanism, nor did I see any thing that would indicate that this would have a major impact on global climate either positively or negatively. Correlation does not equal causation. Exactly what connection to global climate change do you see in this paper and its findings?
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