Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation

[CapelDodger]

As a survey it was a waste of time.

As an aid to motivated reasoning it's served very well for many years, and, as we've seen, is still good for more. Unlike Fred Seitz, of course, who's been dead these six years or so.

 

[macdoc]

I sent a note to Gavin that the temperature scale at the bottom of this otherwise wonderful representation of the lurking El Nino is reversed...

Stock up on your coffee

El Nino-Induced Droughts May Hike Coffee Prices Further
Kristina Pydynowski
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

May 11, 2014; 2:10 AM

The upcoming El Niño threatens to drive coffee prices up further, which are already high due to drought in Brazil and as a fungus plagues coffee crops in Central America.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists expect the onset of El Niño during midsummer, leading to drought in many of the top coffee-producing countries.

"During an El Niño, there is a strong correlation between dry weather in Central America," stated AccuWeather.com Agricultural Weather Expert Dale Mohler.
"The drought that is likely to result threatens to reduce this year's coffee crop even further in the region."

more
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/el-ninoinduced-droughts-may-hi-1/26663474

 

[!Kaggen]

Anyone have info on this organization?
http://www.thegwpf.org/who-we-are/
Seems to be a refuge for deniers to hide ?

 

[Mikemcc]

British lobbying organisation lead by a former Chancellor of the Exchequer. Usual faces involved - Monckton, Pieser, Pielke Snr. God knows how they got charitable status.

 

[a_unique_person]

As an aid to motivated reasoning it's served very well for many years, and, as we've seen, is still good for more. Unlike Fred Seitz, of course, who's been dead these six years or so.

QED.

When, in 1998, Dr. Seitz issued a statement and circulated a petition attacking the scientific conclusions underlying international efforts to control emissions of industrial-waste gases, the National Academy of Sciences took the extraordinary step of refuting the position of one its former presidents. The petition called for the United States to reject the Kyoto Protocol, the 1997 treaty, negotiated by more than 150 countries, imposing limits on emissions of gases like carbon dioxide.
Dr. Seitz's petition was accompanied by an article concluding that emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, posed no climatic threat. Instead, the article said, the emissions amounted to ''a wonderful and unexpected gift from the Industrial Revolution'' by stimulating atmospheric carbon dioxide and increasing plant growth.
Dr. Press, who was also President Jimmy Carter's science adviser, said that while he and Dr. Seitz were good friends, Dr. Seitz ''was not a specialist in this field.'' ''Most top scientists in the field disagreed with him, I among them,'' Dr. Press said. Asked if Dr. Seitz's beliefs had shifted in recent years, Dr. Press said they had not.

http://www.desmogblog.com/new-orego...ficiently-rational-to-advise-tobacco-industry

But most offensive is the use, once again, of the 96-year-old Dr. Fred Seitz as the lead signatory. Seitz was once a widely respected scientist; he's a former President of the National Academy of Sciences and a one-time President of Rockefeller University. But he fell from grace in the 1970s when he signed on as chief scientist for the R.J. Reynolds Tobacco company. He fell then further in 1989 when Alexander Holtzman at Philip Morris complained in an internal memo that “Dr. Seitz is quite elderly and not sufficiently rational to offer advice.”

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/hotpolitics/interviews/seitz.html

But you're a man of science, and you recognize that Dr. Hansen has seen a set of figures that he believes leads to a conclusion --
Well, he should publish them. It's --
Which he did.
I don't know where this end is leading. There are bound to be extremists in any area, and he is one.

I know where this is leading, Hansen published climate science, Seitz didn't.

 

[CapelDodger]

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-...I/AAAAAAAAFxs/baDLS1BqO7I/s600/sn-elninoR.jpg

What rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards America to be born?

Stock up on your coffee

Shush. I haven't quite filled the loft yet.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/el-ninoinduced-droughts-may-hi-1/26663474

"During an El Niño, there is a strong correlation between dry weather in Central America," stated AccuWeather.com Agricultural Weather Expert Dale Mohler.

Between dry weather and what, one is left to speculate.

 

[DC]

QED.

http://www.desmogblog.com/new-orego...ficiently-rational-to-advise-tobacco-industry


http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/hotpolitics/interviews/seitz.html



I know where this is leading, Hansen published climate science, Seitz didn't.

"Dr. Seitz is quite elderly and not sufficiently rational to offer advice."

well that are the qualifications you need to be taken serious among AGW deniers

 

[DC]

I know many dislike YT here, but found it an interesting Interview with Trenberth on the coming El Nino event

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pl4ZYSHq_0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgCgsxPbAvk

 

[Trakar]

What is it you imagine you've found that contradicts what I said?

I'm curious as well. In general, la Nina's result when evaporation in the Western Pacific ocean create dense salty warm surface waters that displace downward and take that hot surface water into deeper into the ocean, el Ninos occur when this wind patterns cause this deeper pool of warm water to shift to the Eastern pacific ocean and re-emerge as surface waters.

The emergence of the tip of the current el Nino warm water pool has just recently started breaching the Eastern Pacific surface waters between 120W -100W which translates to roughly due south of Baja and due west of Peru

Note the temps here. el Nino of '98 was caused by breach that pushed large amounts of 3-4 degree warmer water onto the surface. This pool seems to have much warmer water (5-6 degree warmer water).

 

[macdoc]

Yeah that was what was was worrying the one tracker.....this one looks worse cuz of volume and temp.

 

[r-j]

Unlike the hysteria of the "everything is bad" crowd, in the real world an El Nino would probably break the droughts in the US, and would be a good thing for a lot of people. Even just a "normal" pattern would be a great help.

 

[macdoc]

Pay now or pay more later....

Delays on climate change have cost us $8 trillion

14 May 2014 by Catherine Brahic

TIME is money, goes the saying. When it comes to climate change, two years of inaction has cost the world $8 trillion.

A report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), published Monday, looks at the cost of converting to green electricity in order to keep global warming below 2 °C. The agency found that it will cost $44 trillion more than keeping the current mix, where most electricity comes from fossil fuels. The extra money will go on building wind and solar power stations, efficient grids, electric vehicles and infrastructure.

"We're going to have to invest in our energy infrastructure anyway," says David Elzinga, an IEA analyst in Paris, France. "If we want to transition to clean energy, that is going to cost us a bit more."

In 2012 the IEA estimated the cost of the transition at $36 trillion, which is $8 trillion less than this year's figure. To some extent, the rise is down to quirks in the calculations, such as changes in the value of the dollar. But there is one big factor: the longer we wait to take action on climate change, the more it costs.

Instead of investing in renewable energy now, companies are building coal power stations. These will have to be dismantled early to move to a greener grid, reducing return on the investment. What's more, a later transition must be faster so companies will struggle to roll things out in the cheapest way.

The good news is that, although going green costs more upfront, it brings long-term savings. That is primarily because a more efficient infrastructure uses less fuel. The IEA says that, at $115 trillion by 2050, those savings more than offset the initial investment.

http://www.newscientist.com/article...nge-have-cost-us-8-trillion.html#.U3O3CV5mv3w

time to move on from denying the obvious to dealing with it cost effectively over time.
Much of the planet is.....

Companion to this article

snip

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued another major report warning that we are headed for a beyond-catastrophic 11°F warming (6°C). The IEA report, “Energy Technology Perspectives” (ETP 2014), explains that delaying climate action has cost the world trillions of dollars in just the past two years
The good news is that the new report “confirms that global population and economic growth can be decoupled from energy demand.”

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/05/14/3437715/climate-action-delayed-is-climate-action-denied/

Large numbers, much at risk.

 

[DC]

Unlike the hysteria of the "everything is bad" crowd, in the real world an El Nino would probably break the droughts in the US, and would be a good thing for a lot of people. Even just a "normal" pattern would be a great help.

yeah concentrate on the few positive things , ignore the bad things and everything will be fine soon.....

i bet the "missing heat" will bite you in the

 

[ABC10]

Unlike the hysteria of the "everything is bad" crowd, in the real world an El Nino would probably break the droughts in the US, and would be a good thing for a lot of people. Even just a "normal" pattern would be a great help.

Indeed it would. Still laughing over the NASA and UC Irvine boys projected unstoppable 1,000 year glacier melt in West Antarctica. Perhaps, if we are reincarnated, some of us will be around to see if it does or does not happen.

 

[a_unique_person]

Indeed it would. Still laughing over the NASA and UC Irvine boys projected unstoppable 1,000 year glacier melt in West Antarctica. Perhaps, if we are reincarnated, some of us will be around to see if it does or does not happen.

What an utterly bizarre attitude to the world our children and their children will inherit

 

[a_unique_person]

Unlike the hysteria of the "everything is bad" crowd, in the real world an El Nino would probably break the droughts in the US, and would be a good thing for a lot of people. Even just a "normal" pattern would be a great help.

El Nino, droughts for Australia and many other places. As El Ninos get stronger the extremes get worse. Perhaps some record flooding headed your way, and some record droughts for Australia?

A cycle is something that ends up at the seem place at each repitition of the cycle, these El Nino cycles are creating record extremes. There is a trend lurking inside that cycle.

 

[Reality Check]

Still laughing over the NASA and UC Irvine boys projected unstoppable 1,000 year glacier melt in West Antarctica. ...reincarnation delusion snipped....

Really rolling around on the floor laughing about that statement of ignorance and fantasy, ABC10 !
It was not "boys" - it was scientists (men and women).
It is not 1000 years - it is 200 to 1000 years.
People have children, grandchildren, etc. . It is them that will have to cope with the consequences of any West Antarctica glacial melting.

P.S. It is not just NASA and UC Irvine. Projected rapid melting of the Pine Island Glacier was reported back in January 2014: Massive Antarctic Glacier Uncontrollably Retreating, Study Suggests by "Researchers based at the French National Center for Scientific Research in Grenoble".

 

[Cl1mh4224rd]

I've never seen more excuses to attempt to dodge responsibility to clean up after yourself.

I think some people just don't believe that future generations have value in the present. The "distant" future might as well be a foreign country or another planet; it's something they'll never see, so why bother themselves worrying about it?

 

[macdoc]

I used to think it was "distant" ....it's not...it's now.

Expanding tropics...expanding cyclone band

By: Associated Press, Published on Wed May 14 2014
WASHINGTON—Tropical cyclones worldwide are moving out of the tropics and more toward the poles and larger population centres, likely owing to global warming, a surprising new study finds. Atlantic hurricanes, however, don’t follow this trend.
While other studies have looked at the strength and frequency of the storms, which are called hurricanes in North America and cyclones and typhoons elsewhere, this is the first study that looks at where they are geographically when they peak.
It found in the last 30 years, tropical cyclones, regardless of their size, are peaking 53 kilometres farther north each decade in the Northern Hemisphere and 61 kilometres farther south each decade in the Southern Hemisphere.

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2..._migrating_out_of_the_tropics_says_study.html

 

[ABC10]

I used to think it was "distant" ....it's not...it's now.

Expanding tropics...expanding cyclone band



http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2..._migrating_out_of_the_tropics_says_study.html

Better the poles than the Philippines, China, India, the Tropics and other points.