Global Cooling in 2009 (375 Sources)

Geckko said:
I had something more like this in mind.

[qimg]http://rankexploits.com/musings/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/HadCRUTSince2001-500x341.jpg[/qimg]

So this shows that this data had a measured negative trend over the period shown. What we can say about it statistically at a confidence of 95% is:

  • It appears statistically significantly different to a trend of +0.2 degrees per decade.
  • It does not appear statistically different from zero.
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And we can say, based on Tamino's post, that the time period Lucia used is too short to say anything meaningful about climate trends. Which Lucia must know because she isn't stupid, and yet she persists.
 
fsol said:
And we can say, based on Tamino's post, that the time period Lucia used is too short to say anything meaningful about climate trends. Which Lucia must know because she isn't stupid, and yet she persists.
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The funny part is that Geckko is also not stupid, and should know that. I don't understand why he's taking this absurd position.

Unless, of course, I was mistaken about him in the first place.
 
Geckko said:
I had something more like this in mind.
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You can’t use over-sampling to make up for a lack of data. The system that data describes is on a yearly cycle, you can’t characterize the year to year trend with monthly data.
 
Aussie Thinker said:
Poptechs graph (the old one Megaladon posted.. not the latest ones which he is posting to make a point) was FAR more predictive than any other I’ve seen !

Have an honest look at his graph.. it sticks with reality far closer than any others. And it DOES show warming.. he isn’t cherry picking or making stuff up.. Its just not alarmist.
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You have got to be kidding, right? As I said in other threads, global warming deniers almost always choose 1998 as their year to start their graphs. 1998 is an outlier in regards to temps so is not appropriate in any way to include as the start point. Did the causes of global warming start in 1998 or something? Only then would it be appropriate. Otherwise one must look at a longer term of data points.

I say this as someone who works in the field of science and uses trends and curvefits in my work on a regular basis.
 
Megalodon said:
The funny part is that Geckko is also not stupid, and should know that. I don't understand why he's taking this absurd position.

Unless, of course, I was mistaken about him in the first place.
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I think (and I'm putting words in his mouth here) he's getting to a question I asked a while back - when does natural noise become a trend.

Even the last graph you posted shows a noisy subtle downturn over the last 8 years (12 gives you steeper slope but a much noisier signal). Sure those 8 to 12 years that have got poptech so excited aren’t significant but if next year and the year after that show a cooling trend, what does that mean?

The answer I got referred back to Tamino’s bet and I’m happy with that but Geckko might have a different view.
 
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Oh BTW - original ref to the bet is here.

I know someone here is keeping it up to date.
 
Actually having been reminded of the tamino thread and in the process of catching up with it I found this which is somewhat relevant.
 
DogB said:
Even the last graph you posted shows a noisy subtle downturn over the last 8 years (12 gives you steeper slope but a much noisier signal). Sure those 8 to 12 years that have got poptech so excited aren’t significant but if next year and the year after that show a cooling trend, what does that mean?
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Not much, really. It's been demonstrated (not to everyone's satisfaction, of course) that a realistic AGW trend with realistic noise can result in a decade or even two of surface cooling.

of course, since the cooling didn't continue in 2009 (it only started in 2007 with the La Nina) and current EL Nino conditions pretty much guarantee that this year will be a warm one, the question is moot.

The answer I got referred back to Tamino’s bet and I’m happy with that but Geckko might have a different view.
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The 2000's have been a godsend for a certain type of, um, thinking, but that's all over now. They'll have to go back to up-warming the MWP to keep it ahead of current events.
 
Poptech said:
East Anglia is in the grip of the coldest winter for 18 years (East Anglian Daily Times, January 4, 2010)

:jaw-dropp OMG!!!
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http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2010/010510.html

These regional contrasts in temperature anomalies resulted from a strongly negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The AO is a natural pattern of climate variability. It consists of opposing patterns of atmospheric pressure between the polar regions and middle latitudes. The positive phase of the AO exists when pressures are lower than normal over the Arctic, and higher than normal in middle latitude. In the negative phase, the opposite is true; pressures are higher than normal over the Arctic and lower than normal in middle latitudes. The negative and positive phases of the AO set up opposing temperature patterns. With the AO in its negative phase this season, the Arctic is warmer than average, while parts of the middle latitudes are colder than normal. The phase of the AO also affects patterns of precipitation, especially over Europe.
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Cold in the middle latitudes that you refer to, and warm in the Arctic (which you don't refer to). Not surprisingly, when cold air comes south from the Arctic warm air goes north to replace it. Nature abhorrs a vacuum.

The subject is, of course, global warming. Including the Southern Hemisphere, which perversely has its summer when normal folk have their winter. They do it to get attention, if you ask me.
 
Why do alarmists want the manatees to die?

Global Cooling is Killing the Manatees!!!

Cold Stress Contributes To Record Number Manatee Deaths (WESH-TV Florida, January 6, 2010)

"biologists documented a record high of 56 cold stress-related deaths in 2009, more than double the five-year average."
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Manatee deaths hit record numbers (Miami Herald, January 6, 2010)
Manatees huddle for warmth (WPTV Florida, January 6, 2010)

Original.jpg


Why do alarmists want the manatees to die?
 
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Peephole said:
Does the OP hope to accomplish something, besides being mocked?
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Is being mocked supposed to deter me from stating the truth? Or does that only work on new posters?

Yes I am clearly accomplishing something by showing the lack of concern alarmists have for animals like the manatee. Apparently they want them to die by increasing the cooling. Have they no shame?
 
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Poptech said:
Is being mocked supposed to deter me from stating the truth?
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What truth is that exactly? Many of your posts have consisted of links demonstrating that it gets cold in winter.

I would have thought that fact obvious to anyone over the age of six living in the Northern hemisphere.
 
Corsair 115 said:
What truth is that exactly? Many of your posts have consisted of links demonstrating that it gets cold in winter.
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Actually no they document record breaking cold. Which to a six grader means breaking a previous record and now being the "coldest" in the "global warming" era.
 
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