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getting more serious now

True-Gossiper

Student
Joined
Apr 22, 2004
Messages
34
After quite some time reading and learning about the general psychic claims, also speaking a lot about them to my friends and circles, I decide to be more serious and do less talking now. I'm conducting a challenge, just like JREF's million dollar challenge. I'm hoping this way would attract the psychic and supernatural hysteria in my local.
The Indonesian 'miracle workers' aren't much difficult to debunk, and their methods are really classics. My experience and also magic-mentalism backgrounds would surely help me in this project.

The only problem is, I'm doing this from my own pocket money and I'm still a college student who doesnt have a lot of money for the prize. The value I put is Rp. 100.000,- (around US$ 12) and that would equal to 6 - 7 normal lunches cost here. Do you think the prize is enough?

If not, do you have ideas how to get 'sponsors' ? Or maybe some of you would be generous to send just a couple of dollars to help this little project? Even 10 bucks would add the excitement for the contestants..

Thanks.
 
True-Gossiper said:
After quite some time reading and learning about the general psychic claims, also speaking a lot about them to my friends and circles, I decide to be more serious and do less talking now. I'm conducting a challenge, just like JREF's million dollar challenge. I'm hoping this way would attract the psychic and supernatural hysteria in my local.
The Indonesian 'miracle workers' aren't much difficult to debunk, and their methods are really classics. My experience and also magic-mentalism backgrounds would surely help me in this project.

The only problem is, I'm doing this from my own pocket money and I'm still a college student who doesnt have a lot of money for the prize. The value I put is Rp. 100.000,- (around US$ 12) and that would equal to 6 - 7 normal lunches cost here. Do you think the prize is enough?

If not, do you have ideas how to get 'sponsors' ? Or maybe some of you would be generous to send just a couple of dollars to help this little project? Even 10 bucks would add the excitement for the contestants..

Thanks.

Sounds like a good idea, but people will make excuses no matter what. Some claim the million from JREF isn't enough, isn't real, or it's process is fixed so you can't win.

I would see the main problems, once getting a sizable amount of money, getting publicity for it. How do you plan to publicize the prize? Do you have any people working with you for judging the tests? Are you familair with how to detect the professional con artists?
 
Re: Re: getting more serious now

Questioninggeller said:
Sounds like a good idea, but people will make excuses no matter what. Some claim the million from JREF isn't enough, isn't real, or it's process is fixed so you can't win.
Yes, I'm perfectly aware of this. There are always excuses from these kind of people, but I won't worry about that. Even if I only got a few contestants (which will fail of course) is good enough to be recorded and publicized, considering the ridiculous amount of supernatural hype here.

Questioninggeller said:
I would see the main problems, once getting a sizable amount of money, getting publicity for it. How do you plan to publicize the prize? Do you have any people working with you for judging the tests? Are you familair with how to detect the professional con artists?
So far I'm not really aftering for a full publicity like in media etc. This should start as a small personal project consisting of friends and generous sponsors, and if it really work good, then maybe the real mass media publicity would follow.

So far I'm working solo, but I have a couple of friends who can join me judging the tests. And as for detecting con artists, yes I think I'm pretty much equipped with that, and if not, there will be some profesional magician friends who would love to help add their expertise to the jury panel. But like I said earlier, I won't worry about the con technique of psychic claims here cos almost of them are very detectable, even to people who has just start engaging their skeptic brain.
 
OK, who wants to take this--

The JREF forum comes from the Randi challenge, that has been around for a long time. He offered real cash money way back in the old days, when the Uri Geller was being taken seriously. Now it is a fund, and it is real.

Many people have agreed with Randi over the years. He is not alone. The web is not the best place to learn about them, though it is a good one. I might suggest Martin Gardner's books, also the magician calling himself "Penn" and the other one, whatsisname... teller....
 
I just read in skepticreport.com a respond to excuses like “James Randi won’t let me take the challenge”

It is a phenomenon that JREF simply doesn't test for.
"JREF will NOT accept claims of the existence of deities or demons/angels, the validity of exorcism, religious claims, divine healing, cloudbusting, causing the Sun to rise or the stars to move, etc."


Why is that? Why wouldn’t JREF do tests on exorcism, religious claims, and divine healing? What factors does JREF got I mind that they refuse to have them in the challenge? I would really need to know all the reasonings, cos almost all of the psychic claim I would be dealing here are those kind of religious belief and practices. Should I be cautious, if yes, then why?
 
My guess is because many of those claims are not testable. I could very easily claim to make the sun rise every day on a twenty-four hour cycle by means of my magical powers, and there's no way that you can adaquately test the claim without shooting me. I'm not saying that wouldn't be tempting, but no moral person would debunk somebody by shooting them. Besides, you don't get to gloat.
 
True-Gossiper said:
I just read in skepticreport.com a respond to excuses like “James Randi won’t let me take the challenge”

It is a phenomenon that JREF simply doesn't test for.
"JREF will NOT accept claims of the existence of deities or demons/angels, the validity of exorcism, religious claims, divine healing, cloudbusting, causing the Sun to rise or the stars to move, etc."


Why is that? Why wouldn’t JREF do tests on exorcism, religious claims, and divine healing? What factors does JREF got I mind that they refuse to have them in the challenge? I would really need to know all the reasonings, cos almost all of the psychic claim I would be dealing here are those kind of religious belief and practices. Should I be cautious, if yes, then why?

These are claims that are entirely improvable, that could happen by chance and therefore would require significant long term study to prove, or that have such a high chance compared to probability that no effect could be proven.

I am no representative of JREF, but it seems to make sense to me.

We could take them one at a time.

exorcism: This would involve removing a demon spirit from a person. Neither demons nor sprits have been scientifically proven to exist. Furthermore, no known scientific device is known to be capable of measuring the presence or absence of demons, spirits, or angels (because they have not been proven to exist). Therefore, no test can be conducted to prove the exorcism of demons, devils, or what-have-you until such entities are proven to exist and can be measured for presence or non-presence.

religious claims. These are highly controversial. I think this is to avoid an all out war between science and religion (which are not necessary opposed. Obviously this is here to guard against an onslaught of wackos. Personally, I’d like to se JREF take on religion. At least take on what some religious people claim. I’d love to see test of the causal effect of prayer. When prayers don’t come true, I hear “God works in mysterious ways”. Well, if God is going to work in his own mysterious ways despite our prayers, then why pray?. I’d be happy if the challenge extended to any religious belief that any religious belief, prayer, worship, ceremony, anything could have a direct causal effect on anything. Seems paranormal to me. I think JREF just doesn’t have the balls (and maybe rightly so) to take on such a huge volume of believers).

divine healing. Typically un-testable claims. Medical conditions change over time by them selves. Unless a “divine healer” can generate immediate results (such as a huge gash in my arm is within 5 minutes closed and cured with no scar, or my x-rayed lungs show disease on an x-ray but after ten minutes of “divine healing” show perfectly healthy, of a corrupted and diseased liver after ten minuets of healing reveals no detection of liver ailments) then the claim cannot be easily tested. Most claims of paranormal healings require significant time and have subtle results. These are both difficult to test and could result in people not getting proper medical treatment. I would think JREF would be willing to test any claim of “immediate” divine healing that would not interfere with traditional scientific medical treatments. Because medical conditions can change rapidly, proof of this type of claim would require numerous tests. Of course, if someone were capable of such a effect, the JREF million would be a pittance to the billions that could be made. The truth is that most divine healing claims are so subtle that they cannot be distinguished from natural healing (because they in fact are not) that it is impossible to test such claims without risk to patients. ;)
 
devilsadvocate, really thanks for your explanations there. They’re similar to what I have in mind. But I don’t want to officially rule out any possibility of testing claims on exorcism, religious claim, and divine healing like what JREF did in their rule of conduct. How should I compose rule statements saying that such claims will be attended, but depends on the nature of the ability itself, like your instance of “a huge gash in my arm is within 5 minutes closed and cured with no scar” …?
 
Well your gash example would be perfectly testable - but NOT if the gash had to be caused for the test.
And if it wasn't caused for the test then you have someone who has had a gash somehow inflicted on them and you are delaying their medical treatment while they have this test caried out upon them.
Maybe you could take someone who has had this gash and been properly medically treated and then get the healer to do his work. But it stll involves removing the dressing ti check which isn't entirely advisable.

However, the problem is that you will not get any claims like this. They will be more subtle like "I can speed up the healing of the gash". How do you measure that?

I think the reason the JREF avoids religious claims is quite clear.

Pick most religious claims and then try to think how you would test them?

If it is a specific ability that happens to be religiously based (eg. 'God has given me the ability to fly') then you are testing the ability itself, not the mechanism. Flying unaided is a paranormal claim regardless of what allows yuo to do it.

However specifically religious claims will be very tricky as they are only measured by results within the belief system itself (as DevilsAdvocate mentions above). How do you test a demon has been banished withut knowing whether demons exist in the first place?

Can you give examples of the sort of religious claims you would be looking at?
 
Geni, do you really expect this bloke to perform an experiment of that complexity and duration?
 
Ashles said:
Geni, do you really expect this bloke to perform an experiment of that complexity and duration?

Of course not. It's just that claiming something is untesterble in theory is a standard tactic of alt med groups.
 
True-Gossiper said:
I just read in skepticreport.com a respond to excuses like “James Randi won’t let me take the challenge”

It is a phenomenon that JREF simply doesn't test for.
"JREF will NOT accept claims of the existence of deities or demons/angels, the validity of exorcism, religious claims, divine healing, cloudbusting, causing the Sun to rise or the stars to move, etc."


Why is that? Why wouldn’t JREF do tests on exorcism, religious claims, and divine healing? What factors does JREF got I mind that they refuse to have them in the challenge? I would really need to know all the reasonings, cos almost all of the psychic claim I would be dealing here are those kind of religious belief and practices. Should I be cautious, if yes, then why?

Apart from what already said, i think some claims are excluded from testing, because the claim is so ridiculous, that JREF does not know whether it's serious or a joke and they do not watn to waste time to test it. E.g. there was once a apllicant who claimed, that he caused every event that happend by shaking his head and send a demonstration video of him shaking his head.

Other claims are so far of real world, that JREF just guesses, that the chances for this being true are too low to consider it. E.g. someone claiming not to have ingested anything, but water for 20 years.

And some claims are so easy to prove for a applicant, that its not worth to actually set up a test. E.g. Someone claiming to be able to cause meteor strikes was asked to cause a fist size one drop in Randi's garden as a demonstration. As he didn't do it JREF refected his claim without further testing.



As for the divine healing part, KRAMER wrote some time ago, that they might change that, though he indicated, that they would only test those that are easily demonstratable(e.g. regrowing lost leg?).

I do not think JREF would reject any healing claim, that would need a DBPC for testing, but they would expect claimant to gather any money and patients for this and they would based upon application set a score, how far claimant has to score above placebo to pass. This score would be so, that getting it by chance is either 1/1000(prelimenary) or 1/1000000(formal test). As a consequence all those claims "i can spped up natural healing" will not be testible by JREF as such a effect would only be marginally bigger than placebo and would therefore require a huge number of patients to get any reasonable precision to set the 1/1000 limit. And that would cost applicant more than a million.
So JREF is in principle open for all healing claims, but many out there are not testible with the amount of resources JREF can spare for one applicant(and many are probably not testible with a university research fund and staff).

Carn
 

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