Ganzfeld million dollar challange?

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I only joined today and hope I am on the correct thread .
Not really, no. But you are in the correct forum.

If you want to discuss a suitable test protocol for your claimed ability that you can submit to JREF - and there are plenty of people here who can help you design one - you should start a new thread.
 
I'm suggesting that some sort of objective panel be set-up by the JREF that would have input into the MDC process. For example, the panel might consist of three neutral psychologists or parapsychologists. Or perhaps a believer, a skeptic, and a neutral one.

The 'neutral one' should be the skeptic, by definition.
Suggesting 3 'neutral' people from the same area of expertise kind of undermins the whole 'neutral' thing, too.

As the JREF is fronting up the money, they have the right to set the rules, and they ensure fairness through the process of negotiation over protocol. The only things they reject are those things that would permit cheating, so I am constantly surprised by the people who object to this. It's very telling.
 
The 'neutral one' should be the skeptic, by definition.
Suggesting 3 'neutral' people from the same area of expertise kind of undermins the whole 'neutral' thing, too.

As the JREF is fronting up the money, they have the right to set the rules, and they ensure fairness through the process of negotiation over protocol. The only things they reject are those things that would permit cheating, so I am constantly surprised by the people who object to this. It's very telling.

Ultimately, though, the test should be such that it wouldn't matter who was observing. The challenger could bring all his friends, Uri Geller and an elephant, and JREF could bring Big Bird, Stephen Hawking, and the Boston Philharmonic Orchestra. Then the challenger would cause a bowling ball enclosed in a large, sealed glass tank to rise two feet off of the ground while standing ten feet away from the tank, thereby demonstrating his claim that he can move bowling balls with the power of his mind (or, at least, without effecting them through conventional means). And win the Challenge.

It should, in theory, all be on tape, and both parties should make the effort to set up the cameras from enough angles so as to preclude cheating on either side. There are your "neutral observers" right there.

Edited to add: I'm sorry, Rodney, but I think that your idea of finding three "objective" people to judge the input into the MDC makes about as much sense as finding "uninterested Danes" to moderate the Forum. It adds a great deal of complication to a process that does not -- to me at least -- appear to be broken.

Do you have any evidence that such a panel is necessary? By "evidence" I am talking about past Challenges that had specific problems that such a hypothetical panel would have fixed. I admit that my memory is by no means excellent, but the only problems (as in, "reasons people have not won") I have seen in the Challenges that have been heretofore reported have been due to: 1) applicants being unable to clearly state what they can do, 2) protocol negotiations breaking down because of 1) or because the applicant is insisting on something that would enable cheating or that would require subjective judgement calls, 3) a single applicant whose proctors did not follow the agreed-upon protocol, 4) an applicant applying in bad faith in order to use the Challenge for personal promotion, 5) an applicant insisting on changes to the rules, 6) applicants whose claims were not paranormal, 7) applicants whose claims would require them to engage in potentially lethal behavior, 8) applicants not being able to do what they claim to be able to do once controls were put in place. I could probably go on, but you see that in all of these cases but one, the issue was (largely) with the applicant, and usually boiled down to the applicant being unable to think of their claim in a critical fashion.

I have a suggestion for your Ganzfield question: get the help of one of your psychic buddies and apply for the Challenge (if you can get the academic affidavit and media notoriety, either on your part or the parts of your friends, that is). It's already been established that the claimant does not have to possess the powers -- if I'm telekinetic, you can apply by saying "I will demonstrate that the ability to move things only by the power of the mind exists and is real, and I will do so by having my friend Jackalgirl move a bowling ball placed inside a sealed glass tank. She will stand not less than 10 feet away from the tank and, within 5 minutes of the commencement of the test, will cause the bowling ball to raise completely above a mark painted on the glass whose height above the tank's base is equal to that of the bowling ball's diameter. To correct for parallax, video cameras will be placed so that they look square at the mark on stands that place the center of the camera's focal point at the same height as the mark. The recordings will be time-stamped and the commencement of the test will be clearly audible on the recordings. Success will be indicated by the ball rising completely above the mark as viewed on the cameras' recordings within five minutes of the test's commencement. Failure will be indicated by the ball failing to move completely above the mark as viewed on the cameras' recordings within five minutes of the commencement of the test." Then I do my thing with telekinesis and you collect the million.

So your Ganzfield psychics don't have to apply. But you can, using them as the means to demonstrate paranormality. So devise a specific claim and protocol and actually apply. Then you can get the answer from JREF that you're looking for. But remember, if JREF rejects your specific Ganzfield claim, it does not automatically follow that they will reject anyone else's.
 
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It’s my opinion that esp is real and has been demonstrated under lab conditions using protocols including but not limited to Ganzfeld. If you are referring to me wanting to apply for the Randi prize this is not something I will be doing.

The Ganzfeld has demonstrated sloppy methodology and lack of an understanding of statistics.

If there was sample matching to prevent similar pictures in a set, a rater system to score hits reliably, and then a single or group of individuals rose one standard deviation above the mean. Then you could say that the Ganzfeld meant something.

There is not a base chance of 25% for a hit certain words will match multiple pictures in a set, this means that some sets could have .25,.50 ,.75 and 1.0 chance of a hit.
There is not a consistent rating of what makes for a hit.
You need to know the frequency of an occurance before you can decide what is a significant change. The p probability needs other factors to back it up.

Seriously it would not take years and lots of dollars.

It would take a video camera, sets generated to avoid the word match issue and about a year of trials.

If you used Rhine cards it would be better.
 
I'm suggesting that some sort of objective panel be set-up by the JREF that would have input into the MDC process. For example, the panel might consist of three neutral psychologists or parapsychologists. Or perhaps a believer, a skeptic, and a neutral one.


I don't have control over them, but I think they regard the MDC in about the same way you would regard a "Million Dollar Darwinian Evolution Challenge" established by the Discovery Institute.


Are you sure they aren't really your "team of writers"?
 
Ultimately, though, the test should be such that it wouldn't matter who was observing. The challenger could bring all his friends, Uri Geller and an elephant,...

Two minor points:

1. It's not "challenger". It's "claimant".
2. As of the last protocol proposal, Pavel Ziborov has not been granted to bring observers to the testing area.
 
Define "far in excess" for us. I saw 35% instead of the expected 25%. As a critical thinker that tells me that most likely what I thought was properly blinded and randomized wasn't. From what I read of the tests, they were not properly blinded or randomized.
Because ganzfeld experiments have produced 32% hits where only 25% would be expected by chance ("Between 1974 and 2004, 88 ganzfeld experiments were done, reporting 1,008 hits in 3,145 tests" -- see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ganzfeld_experiment#cite_note-EntangledMinds-10), I think somewhere in that range would be an appropriate threshold to test. If a 30% threshold were used and the experiment were to achieve 600 hits in 2000 trials (as opposed to the expected 500 hits), the odds against would be 4.3 million to one, according to the binomial distribution.

The most optimistic conclusion is that maybe in a small percentage of the time there might actually be something there. I would then do my best to figure out what it was. I would then run further tests to increase that percentage to some number that truly could not be explained by procedure flaws. Thus if I got it up to 50% under the same testing conditions, I would get excited that I was going in the right direction.
You seem to be assuming that, if Ganzfeld experiments are showing a real psi effect, that effect can be refined and the hit rate increased to 50% or more. Why do you assume that?

Do you want to discuss Ganzfeld? Yes or no? Please answer.
Sure.
 
Because ganzfeld experiments have produced 32% hits where only 25% would be expected by chance ("Between 1974 and 2004, 88 ganzfeld experiments were done, reporting 1,008 hits in 3,145 tests" -- see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ganzfeld_experiment#cite_note-EntangledMinds-10), I think somewhere in that range would be an appropriate threshold to test. If a 30% threshold were used and the experiment were to achieve 600 hits in 2000 trials (as opposed to the expected 500 hits), the odds against would be 4.3 million to one, according to the binomial distribution.


You seem to be assuming that, if Ganzfeld experiments are showing a real psi effect, that effect can be refined and the hit rate increased to 50% or more. Why do you assume that?


Sure.

Not knowing anything about Ganzfield experiments but being curious, I read the referenced Wikipedia article. Apparently, each test takes over an hour. So is the suggestion that a useful protocol would require two to three thousand hours of testing?
 
Two minor points:

1. It's not "challenger". It's "claimant".
2. As of the last protocol proposal, Pavel Ziborov has not been granted to bring observers to the testing area.

1. Good point; in essence, Randi is the challenger. Thanks for that
2. And sigh, you're right; this just brings us back to the point that there can be no hard and fast rules for the protocol-portion of the MDC, because it depends on both the claim and how the claimant proposes to demonstrate the claim.

Still, though, the results need to be self-evident. I still think that video cameras are (usually) perfectly fine "neutral observers", if set up correctly and in sufficient quantity (the latter which, of course, depends on the claim and how the claimant proposes to demonstrate the claim).
 
Not knowing anything about Ganzfield experiments but being curious, I read the referenced Wikipedia article. Apparently, each test takes over an hour. So is the suggestion that a useful protocol would require two to three thousand hours of testing?
According to the Wikipedia article:

"In a typical ganzfeld experiment, a 'receiver' is left in a room relaxing in a comfortable chair with halved ping-pong balls over the eyes, having a red light shone on them. The receiver also wears a set of headphones through which white or pink noise (static) is played. The receiver is in this state of mild sensory deprivation for half an hour (emphasis added). During this time a 'sender' observes a randomly chosen target and tries to mentally send this information to the receiver. The receiver speaks out loud during the thirty minutes (emphasis added), describing what he or she can see. This is recorded by the experimenter (who is blind to the target) either by recording onto tape or by taking notes, and is used to help the receiver during the judging procedure.

"In the judging procedure, the receiver is taken out of the ganzfeld state and given a set of possible targets, from which they must decide which one most resembled the images they witnessed. Most commonly there are three decoys along with a copy of the target itself, giving an expected overall hit rate of 25% over several dozens of trials."

Including the judging procedure, I think each trial takes about 40 minutes. If that's about right, the time for 2000 trials would be about 1,333 hours.
 
According to the Wikipedia article:
Including the judging procedure, I think each trial takes about 40 minutes. If that's about right, the time for 2000 trials would be about 1,333 hours.

I see I misread the article. Let's go with your time, 1,333 hours. Are you suggesting a useful protocol would require somewhere over 1,000 hours?
 

I understood that in a way that the "judging" was done by the receiver, i.e. they decide between one of four possible targets.

Whether they selected the right target, however, would be obvious and would not require any need to interpretation, etc.

Of course, it is an utterly superfluous step and makes me very suspicious of the entire study conducted in a such a way: Why not make the receiver aware of the possibilities beforehand?
 
I understood that in a way that the "judging" was done by the receiver, i.e. they decide between one of four possible targets.

Whether they selected the right target, however, would be obvious and would not require any need to interpretation, etc.

Of course, it is an utterly superfluous step and makes me very suspicious of the entire study conducted in a such a way: Why not make the receiver aware of the possibilities beforehand?


Isn't that what Zener cards are for? Why doesn't one of those "psi researchers" just apply for the MDC and negotiate a protocol. Then everyone will be able to see if it is as arbitrary as they claim (second hand).

It can't be that difficult, can it? Claim to be able to discern 70 out of 100 or whatever would give you the 1000 to 1 odds and then do it. Why can it be stated so easily by rationalists and be obfuscated so thoroughly by wooists?
 
Isn't that what Zener cards are for?

You'd think. And if te cards don't work you could simply use pre-defined objects that are sufficiently different from each other


  1. a yellow rubber ducky
  2. a white bottle of milk
  3. a red brick
  4. a wooden spoon
Why doesn't one of those "psi researchers" just apply for the MDC and negotiate a protocol. Then everyone will be able to see if it is as arbitrary as they claim (second hand).

My guess: Because they know very well where the flaws in the setup are.

It can't be that difficult, can it? Claim to be able to discern 70 out of 100 or whatever would give you the 1000 to 1 odds and then do it. Why can it be stated so easily by rationalists and be obfuscated so thoroughly by wooists?

See above.
 
It’s my opinion that esp is real and has been demonstrated under lab conditions using protocols including but not limited to Ganzfeld. If you are referring to me wanting to apply for the Randi prize this is not something I will be doing.

Until the evidence for esp builds to a significance where the majority of the scientific community thinks it's worth pursuing, I seriously doubt anyone else will be applying for the MDC in this context. At the present time the evidence for esp is of the will-o'-the-wisp variety, and that's simply not good enough. Furthermore, the MDC isn't set up to be a lab experiment. If your confidence in the evidence is so high, you should be out there building on the research so that the world can see what it is you claim to see.


M.
 
According to the Wikipedia article:

"In a typical ganzfeld experiment, a 'receiver' is left in a room relaxing in a comfortable chair with halved ping-pong balls over the eyes, having a red light shone on them. The receiver also wears a set of headphones through which white or pink noise (static) is played. The receiver is in this state of mild sensory deprivation for half an hour (emphasis added). During this time a 'sender' observes a randomly chosen target and tries to mentally send this information to the receiver. The receiver speaks out loud during the thirty minutes (emphasis added), describing what he or she can see. This is recorded by the experimenter (who is blind to the target) either by recording onto tape or by taking notes, and is used to help the receiver during the judging procedure.

"In the judging procedure, the receiver is taken out of the ganzfeld state and given a set of possible targets, from which they must decide which one most resembled the images they witnessed. Most commonly there are three decoys along with a copy of the target itself, giving an expected overall hit rate of 25% over several dozens of trials."

Including the judging procedure, I think each trial takes about 40 minutes. If that's about right, the time for 2000 trials would be about 1,333 hours.

"Judging procedure"? You're kidding us, aren't you? How do you establish that a) the sender has sent; b) the receiver has received; c) the receiver has received what the sender sent? ie, how do you establish any communication between these two individuals is actually taking place? Shouldn't that be the first order of business? As written, it looks as though everyone is being asked to take on faith that there is anything happening here. Do you see how utterly ridiculous that is?

This reminds me of homeopathy's "memory of water" nonsense. The question is, if the water remembers, wouldn't it be filled to the brim (!) with "memory" of everything it's ever been in contact with? And if so, how do you establish that the memory of the ingredient you (as the homeopath) is applying, is what is actually affecting the patient? Pure twaddle!


M.
 
Because ganzfeld experiments have produced 32% hits where only 25% would be expected by chance

Oh my FSM, can you still really make that claim? You have failed to show that it is 25% in any thread whatsoever.

that is what is wrong with the Ganzfeld from the start.

Say that the word spoken is 'round' or that the thought is 'round'.

Then you have three pictures in a set that match the word 'round'.

That means that the base chance of a 'hit' is 75% , not 25%. (With that word and that set.)

You still ignore that?

Why, we have been down this before, and the auto Ganzfeld is worse, not better.

Please address this point Rodney, it is the heart of why the Ganzfeld has shown nothing so far.
 
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