Gallup gives up trying to rank 2016 presidential candidates

[Ladewig]

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/fir...of-2016-presidential-race-to-focus-on-issues/

Poll Watch: Gallup Ends ‘Horse Race’ Polling of 2016 Presidential Race to Focus on Issues
It is hard to escape horse race polling and predictions as pollsters of all stripes have been asking voters for months (and in some cases years) whom they will support in next year’s presidential race. But Politico reported on Wednesday that one of the biggest names in polling, Gallup, has decided to take a step back from the frenzied who’s-in-first coverage and focus solely – for now, at least – on what the American public thinks about issues.

Gallup was widely criticized in 2012 after its pre-election polls were found to have overestimated Mitt Romney’s share of the vote. The organization conducted an in-depth review of its pre-election polling, which uncovered a series of methodological problems that appeared to lead to faulty results and an inaccurate picture of the electorate.​

I'd quote 538's lament of the withdrawal which will encourage fly-by-night operators to take up the slack, but quoting is a such a bitch on mobile devices these days.

 

[Puppycow]

I'd quote 538's lament of the withdrawal which will encourage fly-by-night operators to take up the slack, but quoting is a such a bitch on mobile devices these days.

I know, I have the same problem. Fat fingers, small screen. Luckily I'm on my desktop right now which makes it easy for me to lend you a hand.

Gallup Gave Up. Here’s Why That Sucks.

Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport told me that he wants to contribute to making the “government process work better” and that he thinks issue polling can do that better than horse-race polling.

We’re worse off without Gallup

Gallup uses rigorous polling methodologies. It employs live interviewers; it calls a lot of cell phones; it calls back people who are harder to reach. More than that, it took the criticism it received after the 2012 election seriously, even bringing in outside help to figure out what went wrong. Gallup rates as solidly average in FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings in large part because of those techniques. It’s had two bad elections recently, but it’s never a good idea to judge a pollster on just a couple of election cycles; Gallup has also had good years.

Polling consumers are far better off in a world of Gallup’s than in a world of Zogby Internet polls and fly-by-night surveys from pollsters we’ve never heard of. There is plenty of shadiness in the polling community, and Gallup seemed to be opening its doors.

Gallup says it will still conduct issue polling, but here’s the problem: Elections are one of the few ways to judge a pollster’s accuracy. And that accuracy is important: We use polls for all kinds of things beyond elections. How do Americans feel about the economy? Do elected leaders have the trust of the public? Is there support for striking a deal with Iran? By forgoing horse-race polls, Gallup has taken away a tool to judge its results publicly.