Gadhafi is in sooo much trouble...

[Caustic Logic]

Never did answer Geni last night, but now I have two toys.

You need to watch the news. It helps with situations like this when you rely on nonsense CT crap after that fact.

Seriously? I need to watch more news is your answer? Which network? CNN, BBC, Al Jazeera, al Libya, JANA? No, the last two have been all but banned worldwide ... tell me, what's in news broadcasts that you miss going over the widest body of most direct evidence you can find ("nonsense CT crap")? Hint, it's not a good thing that' missing...

Evidences?

For that, it takes a few sources. Let me see what I can pull up in five minutes. First, al Baida and nearby Labraq airport. As many as 400 mercenaries were rumored to be landing there on the 18th, as usual to kill and rape.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,747909,00.html

They were met and somehow overpowered - took a couple of days to secure the whole airport, but

Many were captured during fierce clashes between residents and Gaddafi's forces last week; in the ensuing chaos, a group of men from al-Baida executed 15 of the suspected mercenaries on Feb. 18 and 19 in front of the town's courthouse. They were hanged, says the country's former Justice Minister Mustafa Mohamed Abd al-Jalil (who has quit and joined the revolution). It wasn't entirely planned, but the people here were enraged."

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2053490,00.html

Those captured alive said they had once numbered 325 (before or at capture?). When Time's writer saw them, there were about 200. When HRW's guy saw them, it was 156. And they were

from the south of Libya and not from another African country. After talking to them he found out that they were all black Libyans of African descent. The soldiers have since been released by the protesters.

http://www.rnw.nl/africa/article/hrw-no-mercenaries-eastern-libya-0

"Dozens" lumps together the 15 Abdel-Jalil had to admit to (broad daylinght), plus the 21/22 or so executed following a filmed interrogation around al Baida on possibly the night of the 22nd - and instantly in the morning blamed on Gaddafi, part of 130 soldiers ordered killed for refusing to shoot "protesters."
http://12-7-9-11.blogspot.com/2011/03/behind-scenes-of-al-baida-massacre.html

And the one black soldier beaten to death in the street and filmed, left with his pants down,
(can't find the link, but it's shown in the video)
the one hanged from a high truss, also I believe in Bengazi
(same, and I think the video says it's the same guy)
One killed and later beheaded crudely in the town's main square
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2WfmHMiEfA
Burned alive (also blamed on Gaddafi)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3r-ylgBXepQ

Will that do?

 

[geni]

Never did answer Geni last night, but now I have two toys.



Seriously? I need to watch more news is your answer? Which network? CNN, BBC, Al Jazeera, al Libya, JANA? No, the last two have been all but banned worldwide ... tell me, what's in news broadcasts that you miss going over the widest body of most direct evidence you can find ("nonsense CT crap")? Hint, it's not a good thing that' missing... p

BBC paranorma and early BBC reporting from Tripoli would be your best bet. For some reason people tend to run away when being shot at so we've got a bunch of blury running videos with gunfire in the background coming out of Tripoli.

For that, it takes a few sources. Let me see what I can pull up in five minutes. First, al Baida and nearby Labraq airport. As many as 400 mercenaries were rumored to be landing there on the 18th, as usual to kill and rape.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,747909,00.html

They were met and somehow overpowered - took a couple of days to secure the whole airport, but

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2053490,00.html

Those captured alive said they had once numbered 325 (before or at capture?). When Time's writer saw them, there were about 200. When HRW's guy saw them, it was 156.

Given the rebels quite limited logistical abilities and prision guarding experience I doubt any of those numbers mean anything.

And they were

http://www.rnw.nl/africa/article/hrw-no-mercenaries-eastern-libya-0

"Dozens" lumps together the 15 Abdel-Jalil had to admit to (broad daylinght), plus the 21/22 or so executed following a filmed interrogation around al Baida on possibly the night of the 22nd - and instantly in the morning blamed on Gaddafi, part of 130 soldiers ordered killed for refusing to shoot "protesters."
http://12-7-9-11.blogspot.com/2011/03/behind-scenes-of-al-baida-massacre.html

Ah that would be the guy who looks to russia today as a news source and can't comprehend more than one given set of clothing existing.

One killed and later beheaded crudely in the town's main square
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2WfmHMiEfA

I'm not sure lynching applies to the dead. Not everyone has the Misratan's approach.

Burned alive (also blamed on Gaddafi)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3r-ylgBXepQ

No indication how the people there died.


ETA

It's not that the rebels haven't been going in for a bit of extrajudicial killing but with the amount of BS of war comming out of libya the idea that you can state authortivily that "lynched by the dozen in Benghazi, al Baida, and Dernah" (which mathmaticaly requires at least 72 lynchings) seems unlikely.

 

[Darth Rotor]

I do wish the ICC would change thier name as I can't do anything but think of the International Cricket Council....then an image of Gadaffi pops into my head in cricket gear defending charges of ball tampering.

Actually, it was one of his nurses that did all that ...

 

[Caustic Logic]

Given the rebels quite limited logistical abilities and prision guarding experience I doubt any of those numbers mean anything.

I didn't really mean to. It is interesting how it tends to change downward with time, but that could be a coincidence in the sequence of different counts. The main thing was to show one of the biggest catches of supposed mercenaries from Chad, etc. Some were dual-nationals, onetime immigrants now Libyan, others were of native Libyan tribes. The rebels had it wrong, but not before killing some number of them.

And another irony is that Funk de Fino has laughed at me elsewhere for suspecting a rebel on a late-night execution team, white as a lilly, of being a foreign mecenary. I don't recall seeing any rebels that white in regular daytime fighting, but he said if I'd ever been to Libya I'd understand it's a multi-ethnic society. But here are native Libyans getting it wrong and calling merc based on skin color.

Ah that would be the guy who looks to russia today as a news source and can't comprehend more than one given set of clothing existing.

Russia Today was not cited for this, only two videos, one shown on al Libya (Libyan regime TV, semi-private, Saif-owned). No one has disputed the validity of the actual video they showed - they (CNN, al Jazeera, etc.) just ignore it.

But you dispute the link between the two videos? You could be right, but I doubt it. If you know I refer to clothing, I presume you've seen the evidence? What are the odds, with no real connection between the two, that this is coincidence?

1) A tall, skinny, black guy in dark pants and just that type of pintripe sweater, and a permanent slouch the others lack, was among the nine threatened with execution, by rebels, on video (I have a transcript here)
2) A guy of the same build, color, and clothing is among those shown executed, and he's the only one who's got a noticeable hunched back.
3) Both videos are given as at or near al Baida in the first few days of conflict, and that seems to be the case in both.
3) At least one other victim is a quite likely fit between the two pools, and as many as five others of the nine shown (only two were clearly spared, or killed elsewhere)

Considering the above, this most likely shows a rebel atrocity against the Libyan government and its servants. And the double irony is how it was in fact blamed on the regime, right off on February 23 - the most visible edge of a total 130 soldiers ordered killed (including by burning in their bunkers) for "refusing to fire on protesters." By some sources, the video itself showed all 130:

An amateur video shows the bodies of some 130 slain soldiers with their hands tied behind their backs. The mutinous soldiers were shot dead in al-Baida near the eastern city of Benghazi.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/166757.html

So we can be fairly sure at least some of this "orders to shoot protesters" info is plain wrong.

I'm not sure lynching applies to the dead. Not everyone has the Misratan's approach.

What's the Misratan's approach?

No indication how the people there died.

Well, they were burned at some point. The rebels said alive, inside their barracks, by Gaddafi's own forces. But the rebels were the ones known to go around burning security buildings, so ... you can guess my guess there, and how they knew the burning was alive rather than post-mortem like the beheading.

It's not that the rebels haven't been going in for a bit of extrajudicial killing but with the amount of BS of war comming out of libya the idea that you can state authortivily that "lynched by the dozen in Benghazi, al Baida, and Dernah" (which mathmaticaly requires at least 72 lynchings) seems unlikely.

You're right, but nit-picking. In at least one incident in al Baida, and another one also there, the numbers of soldier-types executed by protesters exceeded one dozen. The number of known executions in other cities add to the total, math I haven't tried to tally comprehensively. And considering the cases we know of are from the idiots recording their own crimes, it stands to reason there are probably others we don't know of because they didn't show up on Youtube.

I do agree there's a lot of BS coming out of this war, but some influential people are lending their authority to it, and others are taking it as truth. Consider the French International Federation for Human Rights ... based on rebel-affiliated "human rights groups" in Benghazi, they declared as fact - and have never recanted even with a nudge from me - that 130 soldiers claim that seems to just pin a wave of rebel massacres on the regime.

Got anything comparable for deception on the other side?

 

[geni]

Russia Today was not cited for this,

No but he does reference it.

only two videos, one shown on al Libya (Libyan regime TV, semi-private, Saif-owned). No one has disputed the validity of the actual video they showed - they (CNN, al Jazeera, etc.) just ignore it.

But you dispute the link between the two videos? You could be right, but I doubt it. If you know I refer to clothing, I presume you've seen the evidence? What are the odds, with no real connection between the two, that this is coincidence?

1) A tall, skinny, black guy in dark pants and just that type of pintripe sweater, and a permanent slouch the others lack, was among the nine threatened with execution, by rebels, on video (I have a transcript here)
2) A guy of the same build, color, and clothing is among those shown executed, and he's the only one who's got a noticeable hunched back.

By his own testomy a bunch of them came from the same area (although for tricked civilians they have an awefuly precise count as to how many their were).

What's the Misratan's approach?

They've been burying rather a lot of people:

http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/450304

Got anything comparable for deception on the other side?

You mean asside from the fake NATO bombing that John Simpson got into trouble for pointing out?

Eh the remaining journalists on tripoli are getting a little fed up:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/07/world/africa/07libya.html?_r=3&ref=world

 

[Caustic Logic]

No but he does reference it.

Ah, I see. ... I'm the he. That's my blog. RT has some interesting stuff sometimes, some corny. I take whatever is interesting or makes a good point.

By his own testomy a bunch of them came from the same area (although for tricked civilians they have an awefuly precise count as to how many their were).

Sabah, says the guy from Time, IIRC. It's not made up. Maybe it's only part of the picture, etc... I only get a couple hours a day to find these things out...

They've been burying rather a lot of people:

http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/450304

Okay, yeah, I've seen the graveyards. These guys like to think they're good Muslims. I suppose even that guy was buried within 24 hours, severed head pointing towards Mecca. Unless they felt he wasn't a Muslim ...

You mean asside from the fake NATO bombing that John Simpson got into trouble for pointing out?

Eh the remaining journalists on tripoli are getting a little fed up:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/07/world/africa/07libya.html?_r=3&ref=world

You liked that? You might want to see this, then.

 

[funk de fino]

Never did answer Geni last night, but now I have two toys.

Need batteries?

Seriously? I need to watch more news is your answer? Which network? CNN, BBC, Al Jazeera, al Libya, JANA? No, the last two have been all but banned worldwide ... tell me, what's in news broadcasts that you miss going over the widest body of most direct evidence you can find ("nonsense CT crap")? Hint, it's not a good thing that' missing...

Yes, its all I need. You only jump in after the fact when you are looking for CT nonsense. Is it really that hard in the US to get decent news reporting?

 

[geni]

Ah, I see. ... I'm the he. That's my blog. RT has some interesting stuff sometimes, some corny. I take whatever is interesting or makes a good point.

I however prefer to get information from sources that don't actualy have negative credibility.

You liked that? You might want to see this, then.

Weak. For example you appear unaware of the earlier John Simpson report

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12865785

So yes they really are that incompetent.

And it's hardly suprising. The ability to fool journalists western or otherwise hasn't been on the agender of lybia's security agencies for a long time.

As for the pinball method well it's possible but there has been at least some AA fire by the libyan goverment and AA munitions failing to detonate are a known issues.

As for the claims that those 9 clerics were killed on a mission of peace it seems unlikely.

Gaddafi isn't exactly popular with the more religiously inclined and the strike really did hit a command bunker (confirmed when news agencies managed to track down the guy who designed it). So either the story is largely made up or Gaddafi is trying to use human shields.

The reality is that Gaddafi has a fairly conventional western style millitry which means it is easy to sport and target from the air. At the same time western millitries have spent the last decade working on more and more accurate targeting abilities. Result is that the civilian casulty rate may well be down at the margin or error level.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Need batteries?

Funk, you are a contributing cause to spilled beer. Funny, but I had to clean up afterwards.

I however prefer to get information from sources that don't actualy have negative credibility.

Well, that makes you a rarity on JREF politics forum.

And it's hardly suprising. The ability to fool journalists western or otherwise hasn't been on the agender of lybia's security agencies for a long time.

Spelled agenda, but I catch your drift.

Gaddafi isn't exactly popular with the more religiously inclined and the strike really did hit a command bunker (confirmed when news agencies managed to track down the guy who designed it). So either the story is largely made up or Gaddafi is trying to use human shields.

Or both.

The reality is that Gaddafi has a fairly conventional western style millitry which means it is easy to sport and target from the air. At the same time western millitries have spent the last decade working on more and more accurate targeting abilities. Result is that the civilian casulty rate may well be down at the margin or error level.

Yep. Been that way for a while. Margin of error, which I think is what you mean. pK has been 90+ with shrinking CEP for over a decade.

 

[Caustic Logic]

I just decided that's just about all of this I have the time for. We'll just have to agree to disagree or, barring that, just disagree.

Back on subject - arrest warrants, crimes against humanity.

FWIW I'm on record charging these charges are based on unsubstantiated rumors. I'd recommend a good use for this thread would be for those who support the charges, or the regime change effort at large, to support that by citing evidence of it. Emphasis please on bombing or sniping of protesters, non-violent, at home, etc. and not running with a bomb towards the army barracks or something. Mercenaries - what about that pans out? Etc.

 

[Thunder]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110609/wl_mideast_afp/libyaconflictrapeiccun

more mass-rape evidence

 

[funk de fino]

I just decided that's just about all of this I have the time for. We'll just have to agree to disagree or, barring that, just disagree.

Back on subject - arrest warrants, crimes against humanity.

FWIW I'm on record charging these charges are based on unsubstantiated rumors. I'd recommend a good use for this thread would be for those who support the charges, or the regime change effort at large, to support that by citing evidence of it. Emphasis please on bombing or sniping of protesters, non-violent, at home, etc. and not running with a bomb towards the army barracks or something. Mercenaries - what about that pans out? Etc.

I already told you. Watch the news as it happens in the early days. Not chase down CT rabbit holes after the fact because it gets your woo juices flowing. I especially liked your "lets guess what nationality someone in a screen grab from a video" trick. He cannot possibly be Libyan because you say so........

 

[Pardalis]

How hard is it to kill that SOB? Geezus, we've got military might on our side and we can't kill one effeminate dictator.

 

[geni]

How hard is it to kill that SOB? Geezus, we've got military might on our side and we can't kill one effeminate dictator.

First problem is finding him. It's doubtful that we have much human intelligence on at and assuming he's now smart enough to stay away from his usual haunts finding him from the air is likely impossible

Second problem is that even if we do find him we can really only hit him if he is away from civilians something he may well be using to his advantage.

Thirdly we need to at least vaugley make it look like he wasn't the target.

 

[Cleon]

Well, he's boned. NATO says they're going to start targeting him.

Only way out for him now is to either surrender to the ICC or beg someone to give him asylum.

 

[Pardalis]

or beg someone to give him asylum.

And that someone will probably be Chávez.

 

[Nosi]

How's he gonna get to Chávez? That's a fair bit of planet to cover.

 

[Caustic Logic]

If any of the rumors against him are true, I agree that Gaddafi deserves to die.

Weren't there some doubts some of us had about past crimes blamed on the Libyan government? Why the sudden credulity now?

Also, what do we do with the infuriated loyalists who live on under rebel rule? How long will it take to convince them the war was for their own good, or to weed them all out?

 

[egslim]

Also, what do we do with the infuriated loyalists who live on under rebel rule? How long will it take to convince them the war was for their own good, or to weed them all out?

I'm sure the rebels will be happy to take care of them, if we turn a blind eye.

But: Whitehall officials said that the "same assets" that are currently waging air strikes on Col Gaddafi's regime and its forces would be unleashed on the rebels should they take revenge on towns and populations that have so far remained under Col Gaddafi's control.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...o-will-use-force-to-stop-revenge-attacks.html

Now that would be a spectacularly moronic move - to attack both sides in a civil war, thereby extending the conflict even further and ensuring everybody hates us.

More likely we will turn a blind eye, while publicly claiming we don't.

Though I was already surprised to learn NATO deliberately restricts communication facilities with the rebels. That limits the effectiveness of its airpower, but the reason is NATO wants to avoid appearing to side with the rebels.
I call intentionally crippling yourself without fooling anyone an act of stupidity, but hey.

 

[geni]

And that someone will probably be Chávez.

Unlikely. Asside from the issue of getting there there's the question of how long Chávez will last. More likely he will follow accepted protocol and head for saudi arabia.