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Full moon fear for Mayon volcano

Thing

...now with added haecceity!
Thing
Joined
Dec 25, 2005
Messages
510
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/5258806.stm

Scientists in the Philippines have warned that Wednesday's full moon could spark a major eruption of the Mount Mayon volcano.

Experts say Mount Mayon, the most active volcano in the Philippines, could erupt at any time.

But the full moon's gravitational pull could trigger the eruption, they say.

A full moon coincided with at least three of Mayon's 47 eruptions, including the two most recent ones in 2000 and 2001.
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Can this possibly be relevant?
 
i hope they've got more evidence for that than

A full moon coincided with at least three of Mayon's 47 eruptions, including the two most recent ones in 2000 and 2001.
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:D
 
Who would have thought that the moon had that kind of power, not only to be able to cause the world's oceans to bulge, but also to squeeze terra firma twice a day? But it does, so it should not come as a complete shock that reputable scientists have suggested that these squeezings might influence whether a volcano will erupt or not.

The idea is that if a volcano is full of magma, the squeezing at the fortnightly tidal maximum might be just enough to overcome the resistance of the crust, push magma out, and get an eruption going. Once started, the eruption would continue on its own.

More than 25 years ago, a pair of earth scientists compared the records for 680 eruptions that occurred since 1900 and found that "the probability of an eruption is greatest at times of maximum tidal amplitude." In plainer language, volcanoes are more likely to erupt at the fortnightly (or 14-day) "high" tide.

A specific look at 52 Hawaiian eruptions since January 1832 shows the same sort of pattern. "Nearly twice as many eruptions have occurred nearer fortnightly tidal maximum than tidal minimum." HVO scientists have noted that the Pu'u 'O'o fountaining episodes each occurred remarkably close to fortnightly tidal maximums and that the first set of eruption pauses in 1990 (periods where the eruption turned off for up to a few days) occurred remarkably close to fortnightly tidal minimums.
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well i never.....:)
 
Yep, makes a lot of sense that such a phenomenon would coincide with the maximum gravitational differential pull of the Sun and Moon.
 
Sounds fairly reasonable. Shame they didn't provide any further information to distinguish this from the woos.
 
Form the site http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Outreach/AboutVolcanoes/do_tides_affect_volcanoes.html
Although this is a fascinating correlation, there are just too many tidal maximums and too many volcanoes to base predictions on tidal cycle alone. In the Hawai'i example of 52 eruptions since January 1832, there have been nearly 3,900 tidal maximums, of which roughly 3,850 of them went by without causing an eruption. Statistically, this is about a one percent chance that any tidal maximum will affect the start of an eruption.

The correlation is more important as a clue to how volcanoes work. The effect of the tides suggests that a volcano can remain in a state of near eruption for a period of time before some threshold is exceeded and an eruption starts. There are probably many possible mechanisms for exceeding that threshold - the lunar tides are but one.
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Bolds are mine.
Sounds like someone has uhmmm... How can I say.... Added some spice to the topic.
 
=>_<= ... on Velveeta. The two belong together.

"May God bless and keep the Czar^H^H^H^HMiracle Whip and Velveeta... far away from me!"
-- Not Quite Fiddler on the Roof
 
There are a lot of people who claim that earthquakes are also influenced by lunar cycles. I have done an extensive analysis and determined there is a lot of truth to this. According to my calculations, more than 90% of all earthquakes occur within 15 days of a full moon.

-David

(edited for typo)
 
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Jupiter's moon Io definitely suffers from tidal forces -- they crack its crust right open regularly, making it (IIRC) the most geologically active object in the Solar System. (Unless you count the Sun! :-D)

Our own Moon doesn't exert anything like that kind of force on Earth though.

@AK-Dave: It's True! Same goes for New Moon. How mysterious!
 
[annoying OT nitpicking]
Can we really talk abot a star's geology?
[/annoying OT nitpicking]
 
Meffy said:
@AK-Dave: It's True! Same goes for New Moon. How mysterious!
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If we are going to consider the influence of the New Moon, I think we could safely say that more than 90% of all earthquakes and volcanic eruptions occur within 7 days of a full or new moon. Now that's spooky!
 
I should look into this, but maybe one of you could answer this quicker. Why would the moon being fully illuminated from our point of view have an affect on how much of a gravitational pull it has?
 
It's not just the appearance of the lunar phase itself nor the quantity of reflected photons. ;)

During new and full Moon phases, the gravitational influences of the Moon and the Sun are aligned on the same axis, resulting in a combined (greater) tidal influence on the Earth. This page at the NOAA (even though its focus is more on things nautical than astronomical) has a couple of handy diagrams and explains the geeky details better than I.

Mmm, syzygy.
 
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