Ziggurat,
So, you think it is wrong for everyone to pay equally for a shared risk insurance program
Well,
yes. So do you, in fact. You're just not willing to do the discrimination on as broad a set of criteria as I am. But the reasons for accepting discrimination are obvious, and you've already implicitly agreed to them: people who represent more risk should pay more. To do otherwise is to distort the risk pooling, which will lead to inefficient allocation of resources.
BOTH models are charging 'some' people more than they should...
Indeed. But the more criteria you can use in risk assessment, the closer that assessment will be to the true risk.
There will ALWAYS be premium payers who never file a claim. ANY premium amount they paid would be 'too much', so you aren't rewarding them for their excellent driving record... No?
No. You are using ex post facto reasoning here when it isn't appropriate. Absent time travel, one cannot determine who such drivers are. Since the future is unknown,
every driver has a risk. That risk is not always realized, but it's still their. So insurance has value for every driver, because eliminating
risk has value.
So it is okay, in your head, to discriminate against drivers wherein an actual disparagement can be demonstrated in likely claims???
Why not?
I'd only ask to what degree? I mean if blondes are 5% more likely to make a claim than brunettes, how much more is okay to charge them?
Assuming that the likely
size of the claim is constant, then logically a 5% higher premium.
My argument is that these 'generalizations' are wrong, and don't predict all actual outcomes.
Except that they do predict outcomes. They do so probabilistically, but they're still accurate predictions in that sense. And that's as good as we can possibly get. The criteria that you have already accepted (past driving record) is not
any different in that regard. It just offends your sensibilities less.
Moreover, NONE of this criteria matters, when it comes to catastrophes, wherein entire counties or cities suffer complete losses.
That came out of left field. Not only do I not see your point (ie, what the hell are you talking about?), but it's also got nothing to do with car insurance, the specific example we've been discussing.
Low risk, or lower premium payers did NOT pay their fair share of the losses to be replaced.
Sure they do. What the hell do you think "low risk"
means?
Now, in regards to the government taking over the insurance sector, and NOT other service or manufacturing sectors, I don't know what information you'd like to see...
I'd like to see an argument for why insurance in general (and NOT specifically health insurance) is any different than any other service industry.
I mean I guess I don't see a need to have government take over service and manufacturing to begin with, because they are doing fine, while delivering worthy products to consumers.
Car insurance is doing fine too. So is home insurance, life insurance, etc.
The insurance sector however, is or has left over 40 million people without health care coverage
I've already pointed out that health insurance is indeed different than most industries,
including other insurance industries. I've left it to you to figure out why, but if you can't, just ask and I'll tell you.
and 1 in 6 without car insurance.
If people cannot afford to pay for the risk that their driving represents, then perhaps they
shouldn't be driving. If you want the government to step in and
subsidize their driving by assuming some of that risk, then just say so. But don't pretend that such a step can
save money, because it cannot and will not.
By eliminating high salaries, huge advertising budgets, and a profit margin, government can lower premium prices and allow more payers into the system, further spreading risk and lowering prices even more. Government can do what private providers are not now.
That argument applies to every service industry. But you aren't advocating socialization of other service industries. So clearly you don't actually believe your own argument. Either that, or you don't even understand what you're saying.
Your criticisms completely ignored the purpose statement of the whole study:
"How much would the same driver pay for auto insurance if they had the same vehicle, same driving record and same claims history, and lived in each of the 40 cities surveyed in this study?"
I don't care about the "purpose" of the study. I care about what the study
actually did. And contrary to your claims, it did not even touch about the quality of service of insurance, and what it measured was NOT what actual policy holders pay, but what a
particular sample of policy holders (which may not be representative) would pay.
Your criticism that: "They did not measure the average cost of coverage to actual policy holders. We do not know how that compares. "
...is pointless, as the study measures ACTUAL costs of the SAME coverage for a variety of drivers.
So... you don't understand how differences between the sample profiles and actual policy holder populations might make a difference. Wow.