From someone who has a clue

[CapelDodger]

from merphie:

In my opinion, the Iraqi people should be more upset at someone who claims to be working for god is pissing all over the religion.

So now it's all the Iraqis' fault? Sheesh ...

This could also be said for the war in Iraq. If the guerillas/terrorist kill X of our soldiers or Y of Iraqis does that mean the war is getting worse and we are losing?

It's not about numbers, it's about perceptions, but numbers have a big influence on perceptions. I'm not sure that most Americans, on hearing of, say, two marines killed, take much notice of the claimed counter-kill - 5, 20, 80, whatever. Those are, after all, only foreigners, and people do react that way. There may be a maximum casualty rate that is acceptable to the US public, or there may be a cumulative limit (there'd surely be meltdown way before "more than Vietnam" was reached). In that respect, the war gets "worse" the higher the casualty rate.

"Winning" and "losing" are relative to the objective - progress or regress. Standing still is equivalent to losing. Assuming the bottom line objective is a stable, unified Iraq not hostile to the US, I think the war's being lost at the moment, but we'll have a better idea after the elections (US and Iraqi).

 

[merphie]

from merphie:
So now it's all the Iraqis' fault? Sheesh ...

I didn't say that. You quoted out of context.

It's not about numbers, it's about perceptions, but numbers have a big influence on perceptions.

Agreed.

"Winning" and "losing" are relative to the objective - progress or regress. Standing still is equivalent to losing. Assuming the bottom line objective is a stable, unified Iraq not hostile to the US, I think the war's being lost at the moment, but we'll have a better idea after the elections (US and Iraqi).

We also have to be aware of what is effecting our perceptions. I don't think the elections in the US will gauge anything. At best, It might give us someone else to blame for the problems.

 

[merphie]

Well, since we are now 'occupiers' in the eyes of the people we have allegedly 'rescued', I would say that no matter how many Iraqis we kill, we are stuck with the so-called 'insurgency'.

Even if we kill all 25,000,000 of them, that will simply make their territory ripe for occupation by its neighbors, and oh, BTW we're even worse bogeymen to the rest of the world than we are already.

I still don't see it as bad as you do. Even the terrorist seem to have changed their tune. Now they demand the release of all women from prison.

Do you think the Iraqis have gain no benefit at all? Do you really believe there is nothing there but death and destruction? The British seem to think that is OK to withdraw some of their forces.

The mistakes and the damage the U.S. has caused in Iraq may simply be irreparable. We're not winning any hearts and minds by blowing up homes and killing people's relatives, and once you've done this, people don't tend to forgive your little 'mistakes'.

The damage done in this respect will be guage better after then end of our involvement with Iraq. One of us is going to have to have an expensive operation to remove the foot from our mouth.

Look at Bosnia. Do you agree they are better place now? Do the Chinese still hate us for bombing their Embassy?

Do you think Afghanistan is a better place now?

If we still want the oil that badly, I recommend using TBMs at least 1000 feet down, from across the border and then horizontal-drilling down to the petroleum. If you look at a map of Iraq's oil reserves, there are big oil fields within easy reach near all of its borders. The investment of the TBM and tunnelling operation would pay for its self 50-fold, and could have been done many times over for the $200B cost of the war. If anyone appears to be mining towards them, simply air-strike and collapse the mine. The oil can be extracted in relative safety. On the surface, Iraq will probably be a permanent war zone.

To classify this as an oil grab is not accurate in my opinion. So you would advocate stealing?

 

[CapelDodger]

from merphie:

I don't think the elections in the US will gauge anything.

Neither do I, what I mean is that nothing radical is likely to be done before the US election. It may be intended already, but probably won't be launched until the fat chads have hung. (Unless things look really awful for the current administration, and only something radical offers hope.) Then there's an interesting period before the Iraqi elections, when the circumstances of that election are going to be determined. That's when, say, Falujah may get ... readied for democracy. Or not. We're not going to know the real intentions of this administration until the US election is over.

Vote Bush! Let him carry the can!

 

[CapelDodger]

from merphie:

Even the terrorist seem to have changed their tune. Now they demand the release of all women from prison.

There ain't no "the" terrorists. There are little bands of wannabes, gangsters, agents provocateur and who knows what-else popping up all over. And some real players mixed in.

Look at Bosnia. Do you agree they are better place now? Do the Chinese still hate us for bombing their Embassy?

The Chinese don't hate, they calculate. Just like every normal country does. They calculated that the US wouldn't bomb their embassy, so they let the Serbs use a corner of it for a communications base. The Serbs made the same calculation. Clinton bombed it, looked the Chinese in the eye and said "Sorry". Gotta love that guy. And the Chinese learnt a lesson.

 

[merphie]

from merphie:Neither do I, what I mean is that nothing radical is likely to be done before the US election. It may be intended already, but probably won't be launched until the fat chads have hung. (Unless things look really awful for the current administration, and only something radical offers hope.) Then there's an interesting period before the Iraqi elections, when the circumstances of that election are going to be determined. That's when, say, Falujah may get ... readied for democracy. Or not. We're not going to know the real intentions of this administration until the US election is over.

I agree. I am interested in what the Iraqi Prime minister has to say.

 

[merphie]

from merphie:There ain't no "the" terrorists. There are little bands of wannabes, gangsters, agents provocateur and who knows what-else popping up all over. And some real players mixed in.

I agree. Just using common terms the news uses so you know who I am talking about.

The Chinese don't hate, they calculate. Just like every normal country does. They calculated that the US wouldn't bomb their embassy, so they let the Serbs use a corner of it for a communications base. The Serbs made the same calculation. Clinton bombed it, looked the Chinese in the eye and said "Sorry". Gotta love that guy. And the Chinese learnt a lesson.

Did they really? I haven't heard that story. Do you have a link to a story?