A.L. Wegener wrote about the similarities of geology and biology on both sides of separated continents as well as their similar coastline shapes and hypothesized there was once a single continent. It was ~1920. No mechanism was known, I don't know if he postulated one. That is the example I had in mind.Ben Tilly said:Example of plate tectonics? Are you thinking of my example of Fred Hoyle and the Big Bang? Though if you want to talk about plate tectonics, see the case of Sir Harold Jeffreys. After Harry Hess demonstrated plate tectonics in the 1960s to the satisfaction of the vast majority of geologists (he was armed with rather convincing data, including direct measurements of the rate of movement of the plates), Sir Harold refused to accept it. He'd been strongly against continental drift since the 1920s, and wasn't about to accept it. Sir Harold died in 1989, still having never accepted plate tectonics. (The geology journals published his papers "disproving" it for a few years, and eventually stopped.)
He did postulate a mechanism. It was completely unrealistic. He also misjudged how fast the continents would have to move by a factor of 100. While he clearly did observe the right things and got the right idea, the case against his theory was very strong and remained so until studies of seafloor spreading in the 1950s measured continental drift exactly. Even so, geologists did not generally recognize that the case against his theory had fallen apart until Harry Hess put the pieces together and publically made the case in the 60s.
I'm not sure what point this example illustrates. The trend here was that someone came up with a theory. Theory explains some facts but has big, obvious problems. Not many people find the theory convincing.
Also, I wasn't explaining my continuum on the basis of anything you posted, per se. I was just describing the continuum of "overwhelming evidence" from different perspectives. The examples of the holdouts like Behe had nothing to do with anything you posted.
(emphasis mine) Would you be talking about the time of the Scopes trial, (1925)? And you call that the time of scientific consensus? What poor communicators those scientists must have been to be unable to convince very many people in the lay community including those in the entire US school system!Ben Tilly said:The more interesting point is when the theory could be considered part of the solid scientific consensus. And I'd cite that point as being in the early 20th century when the population genetics arguments fell apart. I'd say that we'd clearly passed that point when the Modern Synthesis became widely accepted.
Entire US school system? Don't you mean the Tennessee legislature? As for what that says about the state of scientific consensus, I guess that we didn't have scientific consensus in 2004 when Kansas decided to teach intelligent design...
In any case by my understanding of the Scopes trial, it was a draw. Scopes was fined. The fine was overturned on appeal. The law was allowed to stand. But the judge directed prosecuters to not prosecute on it. And in the long-run, Scopes' side won the public opinion battle.
However, I have more evidence than mere opinion. These two papers are from the same web page:
Namely http://www.grisda.org/, which describes itself as, "An Institute of the General Conference of Seventh Day Adventists". Is that exactly an unbiased source...?
DOES EVOLUTION QUALIFY AS A SCIENTIFIC PRINCIPLE? - Ariel A. Roth; Origins 4(1):4-10 (1977); EDITORIAL
You can see where this discussion is going and it clearly discusses the events of the time, 1977! It certainly doesn't sound like there was a "broad scientific consensus" which you believe occurred decades earlier. It's actually an excellent paper on its own merit, BTW.
I read it. It is filled with quotes from scientists who clearly believe that Darwin's theory of modified descent is actually happening (the most common criticism is that Darwin's theory is a tautology, hence needs no proof), but who don't know whether to call it science due to difficulties fitting it with Popper's criteria. To tell the truth, if you'd seen some of the more esoteric theorizing from "evolutionary theorists", you might likewise have trouble calling some of it science.
ORGANIZATION AND THE ORIGIN OF LIFE; John C. Walton; Lecturer in Chemistry; University of St. Andrews, Fife, Scotland
As you may have noted, this paper is one supporting the Intelligent Design hypothesis. "Special Creation", I imagine you are aware, was the early terminology used.
Please note, that paper is about the problem of abiogenesis, not the reality of Darwinian evolution. Even today abiogenesis is not an adequately solved problem. (Given the difficulties that studying the problem poses, we would not expect it to be solved yet. Therefore our lack of success is not in my mind a significant challenge to current scientific theory. And, truth be told, we are making progress on it.) In the 70s the situation was even worse.
So let's look at a couple of issues here to better understand the perspective I am talking about.
First, we seem to agree religious beliefs are not scientific. You want them included in the scientific theories which competed with Darwin's. Neither of us want them included in current science but we recognize there are a few holdouts who have joined the world of science but maintain by various belief schemes, their personal beliefs in gods.
Actually I don't really want them included. I just recognize that it is a historical fact that they were an important part of the actual debate within the scientific community and were regarded as a legitimate part of that debate by scientists of that day. Regardless of my opinions, I have to accept it.
Yet here are 2 editorials written as recently as 1977 with very serious discussion of the science of the day, and the conflict which the theory of evolution poses to the religious belief the Bible correctly describes the origin of species. One of the papers notes, "a statement affirming evolution as a principle of science. The statement, signed by 163 scholars, most of whom are biologists in leading universities of the United States, was prepared for distribution to major public school districts in the United States. Among its sponsors are such notables as Isaac Asimov, Linus Pauling, and George Gaylord Simpson."
It certainly implies there was a change in the scientific consensus, maybe in the previous few years, maybe a decade in the making, it would be hard to pin down. Why else would you have biologists needing to publicly proclaim, it's time to stop arguing about the validity of the theory of evolution?
Why else? Can you really think of no other explanation?
Consider this. In 2005 a group of 38 Nobel laureates issued a public statement that intelligent design is not scientific. Should you conclude from that that there was a lack of consensus in the scientific community about the status of Darwin's theory? Of course not! The cause was that they hoped to influence public debate about whether schools should teach intelligent design.
Similarly in the 70s those scientists were motivated by the exact same issue. There were some high profile court cases about teaching creationism. The public statement was meant to affect both the court cases and the public debate. This exact issue was discussed in one of Gould's essays. If I had them available I could identify the exact essay and then find out which court case in particular motivated that statement. (I believe it was somewhere in Tennesee.)
I agree that the statement indicated a lack of consensus. But it wasn't a lack of scientific consensus. And it was a lack of consensus that (according to poll results) remains to this day.
I completely agree with you about the scientific evidence and consensus if you exclude the large number of scientists who had a much harder time letting go of their previous religious beliefs. Where do you fit in those 'scientists' who continued to look for ways in which Creationism, Special Creation, and speciation was not explained by the theory of evolution? Why do you include them among the serious scientists of Darwin's day, and exclude them in determining your scientific consensus the early 20th century? You include their Biblical 'evidence' in Darwin's day and exclude their 'scientific arguments' of the 70s.
Because in Darwin's day those arguments were routinely getting published in scientific journals, while they weren't in the 1970s.
I don't include Biblical evidence in with true scientific evidence simply because people believed it. But the reality is, as you noted, there are 'scientists' who do (less so every day). I do consider those scientists when assessing the scientific consensus on evolution theory. According to you, Biblical evidence was valid at the time of Darwin. Do you dismiss it's historical scientific validity in the 60s? the 70s? Today? I'm asking about your historical, not personal definition of valid science. And do you negate the arguments and evidence Behe put forth supposedly showing evidence of irreducible complexity in your assessment of "overwhelming evidence"?
I do dismiss it for the reason that I gave above.
About Behe, please note that he basically accepts Darwinian evolution, at least for the last few hundred million years of history. In his words he has, "no quarrel with the idea of common descent." He has big problems with abiogenesis, and thinks God is needed to explain how cells came about. But he has stated that he agrees with Darwin's account of how, say, a light-sensitive spot evolved into an eye.
Since Darwin's theory of evolution specifically excludes abiogenesis, I would count Behe as a supporter of Darwinian evolution. And therefore I have no problem including him in my assessment of "overwhelming evidence". (I'll note, though, that most of the people who run around quoting Behe agree with him a lot less than they think they do.)
We both agree Behe had no case. But how do you fit his hypothesis into the question of whether there was a scientific consensus throughout the scientific community in the early 20th century then, and especially in the 30-40 years ago you say I am wrong to cite?
First of all, what relevance do Behe's statements in the 1990s have on a question of what was believed 30-40 years ago?
Secondly, as I've already noted, Behe is part of the scientific consensus on evolution. He is not on abiogenesis. But on evolution, he is.
Not so. No offense but this is another part of the problem here. You are speaking of this whole issue as if I had the facts all wrong. And I see it as we are merely speaking from two different points of view as to what constitutes overwnelming evidence and scientific consensus.Ben Tilly said:Well I'll call it progress. At least you're no longer saying that Creationist claims are based on 40 year old science. And you're no longer denying that they could have understood the basic connection between genes and chromosomes in the 30s and 40s.
I guess we have less progress than I'd hoped.
In any case my point of view is that I think you don't appreciate the history well enough to realize when overwhelming evidence and scientific consensus existed.
Who is "they"? You ignore a large body of scientists here who didn't want to believe their Bibles were wrong. And you keep changing your definition of scientific evidence to include or exclude Biblical evidence, depending on what you want to declare. The '40 year old science' I refer to is the scientific rationale that has been repeated in the scientific literature throughout the 20th century. That is the claim that the theory of evolution had not yet proved it could explain speciation. Genetic science ended the debate. But it didn't end it when genetic science was discovered. It ended when genetic science started mapping genomes.
What debate? If you check http://www.actionbioscience.org/evolution/irwin.html you'll find that there was a ring species documented in the 1930s and another in 1949. The existence of a ring species proves unambiguously that microevolution can result in speciation. (And you don't need to be able to look at the genes to verify this phenomena.)
40 years ago there was an intense debate about how speciation usually happens. But there was (to the best of my knowledge) no real debate that it was possible.
And about ignoring some group of scientists, I really don't think that I have.
I may not have been unaware of some of the early work in genetic science. Not a big deal. Who knows the history of early work in every single scientific field? But those events have not changed my view that the real point of overwhelming evidence was when we could look at the genomes and trace the line of descent. I'll call it progress when you recognize that drawing a line on a continuum is a subjective decision. And when you explain why and when you exclude Biblical evidence from science and why and when you exclude Bible believer holdouts in your consensus of scientists.
If you'll note, I have explained multiple times why and when I exclude the Bible from science. I exclude it when scientific journals are no longer willing to publish it. For more on why one might take this point of view of science you might want to read The Structure of Scientific Revolutions by Kuhn.
As for drawing the line, you've taken a position that is impossible to really argue against. The only evidence that you'll accept as overwhelming is being able to directly examine the genomes. No amount of data of other types can ever possibly be overwhelming in your world. Nothing that anyone else can say will ever matter.
So you've essentially ruled out all lines of evidence for evolution but one. I find it interesting to compare that point of view to how creationists rule out all lines of evidence for evolution...
Which is what one expects when differences are those of opinion and perspective.Ben Tilly said:But it isn't worth my while to try much harder to convince you on those points. I've spent a lot more energy than I intended on this tangential point. And I'm willing to let our disagreements sit roughly where they are.
There are other explanations...
You (and Dr A) are looking at when the science actually did overwhelmingly support the theory of evolution, (I have no disagreements with you there). I am looking at when the science was so overwhelming, the 'scientists' who wanted to hold on to their belief in Creation, or Special Creation, or Intelligent Design, or 'evolution theory hasn't proved speciation' simply could no longer deny they were wrong. That came with a thorough understanding of genetic mechanisms and the beginning of manipulating those genes in successfully predicted ways* (30-40 years ago) and more absolutely with genome mapping (10-20 years ago), IMO.
*You could argue selective breeding could predict and test the theory of evolution. But you can also argue until we moved genes from one species to another, we hadn't truly made predictions and tested the theory since breeding between species produced mostly sterile offspring.
As has been noted already, there remain scientists today who continue to deny evolution, and simply cannot be convinced. Period. I know this because I've known some. In fact there is a math PhD who fits this description who will happily tell you that he could never have obtained his PhD without my help. (He'd failed his topology qual twice and was going to get kicked out after one more failure. I took it on myself to properly teach him topology. After a month of hard work he passed with flying colours. He later repaid me by introducing me to Linux.)
So where do you set the bar?
I set it by asking what respectable peer-reviewed journals are willing to seriously consider in a publication.
I would disagree with someone who said we need the abiogenesis piece of the theory as well but I could understand their perspective. I understand your perspective. You are looking at the real science. I just think you are ignoring the historical science and faulting me for not doing so. I don't see I had my "facts" wrong. You have posted many "facts" I wasn't aware of. But the ones you have brought to my attention do not contradict my statement, "Evolution is a theory that passed into the 'overwhelming evidence for it' phase at least a decade or more ago and anyone but a science purist would probably say it happened 3-4 decades ago. In fact the bulk of arguments evolution deniers put forth are based on 40 year old science". Those science purists would be the ones waiting for the whole theory including abiogenesis.
Let's see. You haven't shown that evolution deniers really are arguing on the basis of 40 year old science. I have shown that knowledgable people would say that it happened a lot longer than 3-4 decades ago.
And in the case of evolution, perhaps much like the early European science of astronomy, the hurdle science must overcome of Biblical indoctrination of young scientists before they are introduced to the fields of science and the scientific process muddies the picture tremendously. Boggles my mind, anyway.Ben Tilly said:It is amazing how often major scientific revolutions leave some prominent scientist denying the new world order to their deathbeds.
Yes. In some sense creationists who never shake the beliefs they were raised with are direct analogs to prominent scientists who can never accept a new paradigm.
Cheers,
Ben
