Dr Adequate
Banned
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- Aug 31, 2004
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Huh?But there was a big coverup in the early 1900s when the Burgess shale fossils were discovered.
You guys just make stuff up as you go along, don't you?
Huh?But there was a big coverup in the early 1900s when the Burgess shale fossils were discovered.
No."That guy" would be whom?
Francis Crick?
I think that I would easily succumb to the conclusion that random mutation and natural selection is a sufficient mechanism that creates new stuff if some genetic algorithm was somehow demonstrated that created new stuff.
Huh?So far genetic algorithms are goal oriented so the deus ex machina is there in the artificial selection criterion.
[swiki]Chirality[/swiki]Also, Urey Miller did not produce all the amino acids needed. This article did not say which ones were produced in this recent experiment. It also did not say anything about the chirality of the molecules. That will be interesting to know.
I think the statistical argument proceeds from a false premise -- one which especially appeals to the "design" mindset.
If you go to the casino to play roulette and you put your money on 22, you know there's a definite and certain negative expectation over the long run. But the presumption that you and the casino make is that there will absolutely be a roulette table and wheel to accommodate the precise odds so that anyone may calculate them in advance.
However, when you ask what the odds of humanity rising from base chemicals as the result of the chaotic actions of the universe, you are making the same presumption as with the roulette game: base chemicals will form into complex molecules which will become self replicating DNA, which will evolve organisms and eventually produce homo sapiens.
The problem with the presumption is that it's not the only possible outcome. Without presuming a creator who intends humanity from this chain of events, there is no reason to expect that any particular self-replicating molecule will necessarily arise.
How do we know that some other configuration could not have occurred? Just because DNA is what we're made of doesn't mean that DNA is the only possible self-replicating molecule. There could be a limitless number of possible ways that a self-replicating and evolving organism could occur, and without knowing all of the possibilities, it is impossible to calculate the odds of our existence.
This is the point where the design advocate jumps in and asserts that anthropic principle suggests that our universe is fine tuned to produce "us." But, once again, that's imputing a designer into the mix.
Assuming, arguendo, that our universe is the only universe, the fact is that the probability of our existence remains incalculable, because we can't spin the universal roulette wheel,and see what would happen were we to restart the universe a few thousand times, thereby invoking the law of large numbers.
And, even if we were able to do this, would the fact that humanity appeared in only one independent trial of universal roulette be more likely to suggest a designer than were humanity to appear every time?
After all, if humanity only appeared once, then that would seemingly make us a rather amazing coincidence, but no less amazing than were we to appear every time.
At bottom, humanity is here, and that is the only known fact. How we got here, ultimately is not susceptible to absolute proof, unless the designer is a natural actor in our universe. And, if it is, then we should be able to locate it.
In the absence of finding that designer, the default position is that we are here as the result of random chance, no matter how unlikely that may appear, because the alternative possibility: that we are here as the result of magic, is infinitely less likely.
Quite true, but abiogenesis is a plausible theory, hopefully not dogma.Sure - no prob. But how many times do those here cry "give me the evidence...".
Who's being presumptuous? Obviously those who presume, without evidence, that there is a gradualistic path from abiotic molecules up through to RNA/DNA.
The sudden appearance is a matter of preservation, there are species (or whatever you want to label them) prior to the cambrian, the preservation of the sft bodied creatures of the cambrian is why they are 'suddenly there', if we find more examples of pre-Cambrian material then it is not as likely to see so sudden.As long as there exists no theory, I'm the one who is NOT being presumptuous, when I say that we need some mechanism other than chance and bootstrapping to get from A to B. Hey, try this for elegant: quantum physics does not rule out wormholes in time, right? It is not wholey outlandish to posit that new information is catalyzed by time loops. That could explain abiogenesis and it could explain sudden appearance of phyla in the Cambrian.
See? Billions of years of evolution produce some simple little Cambrian like organism in OUR FUTURE, then a time worm hole seeds the past with these structures that took Billions of years to evolve. You could get trillions of years (or more) of evolution if time could recirculate like this. Maybe creativity itself relies on some kind of transcending past the time limitations - maybe our brains have tiny little time-paradox loops in it. Okay, I'll come back to reality now...![]()
I've never read anyone else propose this, but I'm sure it's just because I've never stumbled across it.
Cool idea, huh?![]()
I am not alone, of course. Stuart Kauffman in "Origins of Order" states Random mutation and natural selection are doubtfully helpful in explaining abiogenesis - my weak paraphrase. I'll have to look it up - I think it is in the Forward.
And... To go from a bacterium to people is less of a step than to go from a mixture of amino acids to a bacterium. — Lynn Margulis
In the early 80s it was popular to presume RNA as precursor. I think that's been debunked. Most might say now that proteins are the precursors. Some assume a parallel development of peptides and neucleic acids. Even if you have a system of enzymes that have some semblence of reproduction and metabolism, how did the emergence of encoding their structure into neucleic acid code evolve? We don't have any theories with any sort of detail, so we can only calculate the probability of a very complex thing spontaneously appearing. Even if a strand of DNA popped into existence, it would need a host of proteins surrounding it, in order to translate the code into living machinery.
The reason I have trouble with billions of years and billions of molecules is that you can fantasize about having a supply of molecules greater than the number of atoms in the universe and add to that a universe that is much more complex than primordial soup. And still the numbers are against you.
Let's say there are 10^70 atoms in the universe. Okay, poof... for every atom let's fantasize there is a magic machine - 10^70 machines. Each machine assembles a DNA sequence each and every second. The machines are interconnected by some network of communications so that machines do not duplicate the work, they each work on a different part of the problem. The problem is to assemble every possible DNA sequence of a certain length. The supply of C A T G (call them "letters")is infinite and comes from another dimension - infinite primordial soup - see?
Now the question is what do we allow as the minimum sequence for a minimum protolife. If I say 1000 letters, someone will say it may take less than that. We say 900 letters, someone will say that there may be a huge amount of ways to code 900 letters that will still produce a machine that satisfies minimum conditions for being defined as proto-life. Okay, but I can keep making it smaller and smaller until it is too minimal to be proto-life. Somewhere between too minimal, and just minimal, is the threshold. We can pick a number. I'll say 400 letters even though I can't imagine how that could really be sufficient. I think that is generous - at least to me. And you asked me how can I believe a billion years and billion molecules doesn't work - I am using numbers that are generous in my opinion.
Let's go on. So we have 10^70 machines, each takes one second to assemble a 400 letter string, pocketa-pocketa all the machines produce a new sequence each second: 10^70 each second in the whole universe. No duplication or redundancy - no waste of time - no machine overlaps the work of another machine. There are 10^8 seconds per year. But given 400 letters, there are 4^400 combinations the machines have to go through to make all possible ones. That's 10^240 combinations. How long will it take 10^70 machines to go through 10^240 combinations?
How many times will 10^70 * 10^8 go into 10^240. That's easy.
10^240/10^78= 10^162 years!!!!
The universe is only 10^10 years old. The time 10^162 years is tantamount to infinite time. Oh, it doesn't have to go through ALL combinations - true. Then use the mean time. Half of it. In orders of magnitude base 10, one-half doesn't help you much does it? An engineer would say 10^162 years divided by two is 10^162 years.
I must have seen calculations like this over and over and for some reason never really paid attention to it. I rolled my eyes. One day, I tried to calculate such things myself and saw how unlikely gaps can be jumped by chance. The word "unlikely" takes on new meaning when you see numbers like 10^162 years for a mere 400 amino acids.
So I completely agree that abiogenesis and CC/NS are theories the question is what is the data and what theory matches the data best?All human thoughts are equally false and equally true, some just have a higher observational validity.
This is an example of the typically dishonest casting of evolution as completely random. No need to even bother checking the math - natural selection has been completely ignored.Ah, you say. But how many different stories can be written in English? Huge amounts of 100 word stories can be written in English! How do you calculate that? Let's say there are 10^5 English words. Now all the combinations of English 100 word stories is only 10^5^100, as a limit. Just because it is a concatenation of English words makes it a "story" not. But let's use this number 10^5^100 = 10^500 different stories. Hell, that's a lot of stories!
But while 10^500 stories is HUGE, it is a tiny fraction of all possible 600 letter combinations. 10^500 / 10^859 is tantamount to ZERO! That is, 10^-359 is such a vanishingly small value it IS zero for all practical purposes in our physical universe.
Hubert Yockey?Hoyle was one on that list in my last post but he wasn't the 'guy' someone else cited that I am referring to. It's one of those memories where I know what transpired but can't remember the name. Someone posted something to the effect "some guy" had done "the calculations". I checked and the guy was as wrong as the rest of them for the usual reasons.
It was however a calculation supposedly looking at first life to modern life. It wasn't the claims like Hoyles about the probability of the molecules forming before the first life.
I'll have to find the thread. Apparently I was wrong anyway so it matters not.
No, it would be correct.Yes, it would be wrong to claim that the creation of life from non-living material has been proved.
No, it would be wrong. That paper did not show the creation of life.No, it would be correct.
We just broke the "law of abiogenesis", oopsie.
It would be wrong to claim that we know how it actually happened in nature; but we can watch "the creation of life from non-living material" happen in the lab.
Some people also consider Fox's Protocells to be simple living creatures.It would be wrong to claim that we know how it actually happened in nature; but we can watch "the creation of life from non-living material" happen in the lab.
You know, I never understood why this was such a huge problem for the creationist. Why do people imagine some stark boundary between living and nonliving? Our bodies turn nonliving matter into living matter every day. There isn't some magical divide here. There's a lot of biological stuff out there in nature that we can't really classify as "living" or "not living". It's not like you can go into a lab and look at living molecules under a microscope and see tiny signatures of Jesus on them. It's just one configuration or another of molecules and shades of grey between "alive" and "just a bunch of goop."No, it would be correct.
We just broke the "law of abiogenesis", oopsie.
It would be wrong to claim that we know how it actually happened in nature; but we can watch "the creation of life from non-living material" happen in the lab.
You know, I never understood why this was such a huge problem for the creationist. Why do people imagine some stark boundary between living and nonliving? Our bodies turn nonliving matter into living matter every day. There isn't some magical divide here. There's a lot of biological stuff out there in nature that we can't really classify as "living" or "not living". It's not like you can go into a lab and look at living molecules under a microscope and see tiny signatures of Jesus on them. It's just one configuration or another of molecules and shades of grey between "alive" and "just a bunch of goop."
Since most of this has already been covered, a few comments only..........
The time loop paradox -- in the realm of anything possible, sure it's interesting to speculate. But all such paradoxes suffer from the same problem -- they depend on always having existed. So, this "solution" essentially says that complex life has always been, existing within an endless time loop. Possible? I suppose, since I don't know enough math to disprove the possibility, but unlikely given the arrow of time we see in this universe.
As to the probabilities, I think that has already been covered excellently. I think you must agree, Von, that the probability argument rests on a level of ignorance -- ignorance that we all share (and which you have admitted already). You chide us for believing in abiogenesis, but I have never met anyone who believes in any set theory of abiogenesis. What most believe is that we have seen natural processes create an amazing array of organisms through the mechanism of natural selection. We have a theory that accounts for the evidence we see, we have never seen anything counter the theory, so we continue to use it. That theory rests on a natural mechanism. So we have confidence that a natural mechanism will probably explain the origin of living matter from non-living precursors. We don't believe that it has been proved, so I'm not sure what your exact point is. Saying that it is impossible depends critically on knowledge that you do not have, so you are being presumptuous. Us saying that we think it might be possible is presumptuous how? We are not claiming an answer. We are only claiming a framework that might provide an answer and acting humbly within that framework. We are at the mercy of the evidence and the theories that we can generate to explain that evidence. I don't see anything presumptuous in that maneuver, but perhaps you could explain to me the error of my way of thinking about it? Your "solution" is to view the world from a teleological perspective. Teleology itself is unfalsifiable. However, philosophically, it depends critically on mind and an argument from analogy and the only experience we have with mind is our own (and the minds of other animals). There is no compelling reason to suppose another type of mind that would create a teleological purpose for reality (and arguments from analogy suffer critically when we stray from directly analogous situations). While this is not out of the realm of possibility, it is simply not necessary for an explanation of information creation, as has been already shown. The simplest explanation is still natural forces did it.
Yes, it would be wrong to claim that the creation of life from non-living material has been proved. I have never met anyone who claims that, though. Most simply say "I don't know for sure, but I think it is possible and even likely." As to how it came to be, well we can all speculate. My guess is that we should look at our existing processes for translation, transcription, and replication in reverse order for the sequence of what was likely in the past. My guess is that first were peptides, arising through a mechanism that we still do not completely understand from the amino acids we know are easily made; then comes RNA to form on top of the peptides simply because it can and it can create new copies of itself; then comes DNA and the whole process takes off to become what we think of as life. But that is all pure speculation. It makes sense of why we have the DNA --> RNA --> protein process now, but it doesn't explain much. It is merely speculative framework.
Let's be honest for a minute. We are fairly ignorant of our environment. There is much that we know but much more that we do not. The origins issue is a big lacuna in our knowledge, but it exists in large part because we have only recently begun to question origins within a biological framework. It is a very interesting question, but we had much more pressing issues in the recent past -- such as how to kill microbes that were trying to kill us and how to understand genetic disease. There are enough people now investigating issues that a few folks have actually begun to try and answer these questions. Give it time and we will probably have a very good answer -- possibly even within the decade or certainly the next century.
ETA
Let me re-state the time-loop issue -- this differing view of time, as circular rather than having an arrow, does not admit questions such as "what is the origin of x" because the loop must always exist. It simply eliminates an entire class of phenomena -- ultimate origins. Now, it is possible for time to appear to have an arrow within an endless loop, so that one may ask about the origin of a particular phenomena, but once you put the ultimate origin of something within such a time loop, then it makes no sense to ask about its origin. In other words, the question of origins is no longer scientific, no longer falsifiable, and really no longer sensible. The time loop idea itself is non-scientific -- not falsifiable. Whether or not it is correct is a whole other issue, but it could never be anything but speculation because there is no logical reason why it must be the case. Without logical force or falsifiability, we must label it "interesting" at best.
The oceans are a sea of dna/rna fragments. That's what viruses are.I haven't read this thread carefully, but the common abiogenesis narrative has never made much intuitive sense to me, which is why I've ben intrigued by the idea microbesmay have ridden space debris or whatnot to planet earth. Why wouldn't the oceans be a sea of dna/rna fragments?
[swiki]Chirality[/swiki]
It turns out that there are lots of chemical reactions which produce chirality without any imaginary invisible men doing magic in any way.
Here's a question for you. If you thought that would be so "interesting to know", why didn't you try to find out? Oh, yeah, because your "interest" wasn't sincere, it was just another freakin' Argument From Personal Ignorance.