Former Math Professor Beats Lottery Odds

Maybe she's been using her initial winnings ($11 million jackpot) to buy enormous amounts of tickets ever since.
 
Maybe she's been using her initial winnings ($11 million jackpot) to buy enormous amounts of tickets ever since.
At least since 2006. Bear in mind that her first jackpot (a lottery, which she split with someone else, so her take would have actually been $5.5 million) occurred in 1993, when Ms. Ginther would have been 46 (she's 63 now) and, presumably, working full-time. She did not win her first scratch-off jackpot until 2006, by which time she may have been retired. So, it could be that her lottery jackpot was pure luck and that she was only a casual lottery player until her retirement. At that time, she would have had the capability of devoting full-time attention to searching out any biases in the Texas Lottery. Finding at least one significant one, coupled with her $5.5 million in winnings, she could have developed an increasingly sophisticated betting strategy, permitting her to win scratch-off jackpots of $2 million in 2006, $3 million in 2008, and $10 million this year.
 
At least since 2006. Bear in mind that her first jackpot (a lottery, which she split with someone else, so her take would have actually been $5.5 million) occurred in 1993, when Ms. Ginther would have been 46 (she's 63 now) and, presumably, working full-time. She did not win her first scratch-off jackpot until 2006, by which time she may have been retired. So, it could be that her lottery jackpot was pure luck and that she was only a casual lottery player until her retirement. At that time, she would have had the capability of devoting full-time attention to searching out any biases in the Texas Lottery. Finding at least one significant one, coupled with her $5.5 million in winnings, she could have developed an increasingly sophisticated betting strategy, permitting her to win scratch-off jackpots of $2 million in 2006, $3 million in 2008, and $10 million this year.

Ahh, her first win was the lottery. This makes perfect sense.
 
At least since 2006. Bear in mind that her first jackpot (a lottery, which she split with someone else, so her take would have actually been $5.5 million) occurred in 1993, when Ms. Ginther would have been 46 (she's 63 now) and, presumably, working full-time. She did not win her first scratch-off jackpot until 2006, by which time she may have been retired. So, it could be that her lottery jackpot was pure luck and that she was only a casual lottery player until her retirement. At that time, she would have had the capability of devoting full-time attention to searching out any biases in the Texas Lottery. Finding at least one significant one, coupled with her $5.5 million in winnings, she could have developed an increasingly sophisticated betting strategy, permitting her to win scratch-off jackpots of $2 million in 2006, $3 million in 2008, and $10 million this year.


Of course to keep this in perspective, you did say earlier...

I'm simply throwing out some speculations -- i.e., "reasoning based on inconclusive evidence; conjecture or supposition" [...]


That, plus your demonstrated lack of qualification to understand what is and is not statistically significant, pretty much makes this an exercise in fantasizing that a person may possess secret knowledge, supernatural powers, or is engaged in a conspiracy.

 
. . . an exercise in fantasizing that a person may possess secret knowledge, supernatural powers, or is engaged in a conspiracy.
So, is it your considered opinion that Ms. Ginther just got lucky four times?
 
As to (3), there's also the anecdote how Voltaire - the 18th C. writer and philosopher - came to be independently wealthy. He noted that the total prize money of a lottery that was organized exceeded the cost of all tickets. He got together with a couple of friends and together, they bought up all tickets. Yes, it boggles the mind how a lottery organizer apparently failed 6th grade arithmetic.

A group in Virginia did something like this a number of years ago. They determined that the odds of winning were low enough versus the prize payout that they invested millions and bought millions of tickets. They got the top prize, as well as a slew of smaller ones.
 
The chance of that woman winning so much are small. But with all the legalized gambling in this country, the chance there will be a person now and then that gets really lucky and has a seemingly incredible story about winning so much is probably not so small.
 
I think number 6 probably has it here. The chance that any particular person will be that lucky is very small, but that is not the same as the chance that somewhere in the world, some time, a person will be that lucky.
 
A few things about the lottery. The winning tickets are generated randomly and assigned to a secure database in a 'read once' fashion. Whenever a ticket is validated, that 'bin' in the data base is checked to see if it is a winner. The act of checking changes how the data is stored. So, in a very real sense, there is no pre-existing correlation between serial numbers on tickets and winners.

That said, there are several ways that have been used to beat the scratch offs. As far as I know, lottery officials know these, so try at your own risk.

Most/all depend on a confederate who has access to books of tickets or is validating tickets for others. One way is to scratch with a pin or needle, that area of the ticket where a letter code designates a winner -- letter codes are only used on lower value winners and modern tickets don't put the letters in the same location, however, a small pin scratch isn't noticed by the buyer and small scratches are common on these tickets from normal handling.

Another way, still commonly practiced, is to mis-validate a winning ticket when it is presented. You substitute a loser or just toss the 'loser' but keep it yourself for later validation. It works only when you have a front person who can cash it in elsewhere -- otherwise your store is flagged in the statistics. There is also a human element, you don't want a complaint from someone who is on the ball.

There are other scams involving counterfeit tickets that are neat, but wouldn't rise to any major money. They are still fun as practical jokes though.
 
I think number 6 probably has it here. The chance that any particular person will be that lucky is very small, but that is not the same as the chance that somewhere in the world, some time, a person will be that lucky.
Yes, but . . . "Aug 20, 2008 – Joan R. Ginther of Bishop claimed her $3,000,000 winning in Millions & Millions, a scratch-off game from the Texas Lottery. She bought her ticket at the Times Market 2005 in Bishop, scratched it and discovered that she is to receive the second of the four top prizes offered in this game. 'This is the third time Ms Ginther wins millions with Texas lottery', lottery officials mentioned. Apparently, during the draw held in July 1993 she won a share of an $11,000,000 Lotto Texas jackpot already. Then in 2006 she hit the top prize of $2,000,000 in the Holiday Millionaire scratch-off game. 'We’ve searched our databases', Texas Lottery officials remarked, 'and found no one else who has won two top prizes in excess of $1 million, as well as a Lotto Texas jackpot'.” See http://www.prlog.org/10107683-can-y...ottery-three-times-texas-lottery-reports.html

So, two years ago, Ms. Ginther became the first person in Texas Lottery history to combine two $1-million-dollar-plus scratch-off wins with a lotto win and did it in style, with a $3-million win following her $2-million dollar win. She has now taken things to totally uncharted waters in the history of any lottery (at least as far as I can determine) with an even higher-value ($13-million) win. That is one lucky (doctorate in math) lady.
 
or this:X-Rays

Evil Genius stuff.
Thanks. Interesting that this took place 22 years ago, and there is still a problem with Canadian lottery retailers winning large scratch-off prizes far more often than would be expected by chance. However, I think the consensus of opinion is that they are doing this by defrauding their customers, rather than by using X-Ray machines to read unscratched tickets.
 
Thanks. Interesting that this took place 22 years ago, and there is still a problem with Canadian lottery retailers winning large scratch-off prizes far more often than would be expected by chance. However, I think the consensus of opinion is that they are doing this by defrauding their customers, rather than by using X-Ray machines to read unscratched tickets.

The retailers have been winning at above average rates. There have been instances of fraud, clerks stealing tickets from the elderly, or simply lying about winning tickets being losers.

They've also found retailers using pins to scratch the tickets just enough to see the winning codes but still sell them.

In this case that doesn't seem like what happened. But I thought it was important to point out none of these lotteries are perfect. People have exposed flaws and taken advantage of the system.
 

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