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Forget debate: Two simple reasons a Republican will likely win in 2016

I saw an article which made a similar prediction for the GOP and also cited history of incumbency, except a super-duper computer at Rutgers did the predicting. Still, I wonder if they're lending too much weight to certain variables.

Though I have not looked into it closely, I suspect the Electoral College now presents more significant hurdles for Republicans. Obama famously took North Carolina and Indiana in 2008. He held Virginia and Florida in 2012 against Romney.

I would not be shocked if a Republican won the popular vote, but lost in the EC, which would be fantastic for the country as we'd be one step closer to abolishing the antiquated institution.

I would. Republicans winning the popular vote would defy everything we know about the current electorate. The only way it would be possible is with an unusually low turnout -- and that isn't very damn likely this election.
 
I would. Republicans winning the popular vote would defy everything we know about the current electorate. The only way it would be possible is with an unusually low turnout -- and that isn't very damn likely this election.

Certainly Trump or Rubio candidacies would boost Latino vote from 9 to almost 12% of totals. Either to vote for "one of us" or against "el diablo cabeza barba de choclo" (the maize-silks headed devil)
 
I would. Republicans winning the popular vote would defy everything we know about the current electorate. The only way it would be possible is with an unusually low turnout -- and that isn't very damn likely this election.

I remember reading somewhere about a Repub who proposed a test before a person could vote. They would have had to recited the Bill of Rights. The reporters immediately asked him to do that and he couldn't do the First Amendment. :D
 
I remember reading somewhere about a Repub who proposed a test before a person could vote. They would have had to recited the Bill of Rights. The reporters immediately asked him to do that and he couldn't do the First Amendment. :D

Actually, you bring up a good point. I was purged from the voting roles because I forwarded my mail while I temporarily moved to go back to college -- even though most of my stuff was still in my permanent residence. When I went back to check and re-registered, I was told I need "proof of citizenship" from a document list that basically meant most would use a birth certificate. Yeah, I live in Kansas.

Seriously, you can't freakin' tell me that the state can't figure out whether I'm an American without seeing a birth certificate. With today's tech and the new lack of privacy involved, just about anyone with internet can figure out that I am a natural born citizen.

Luckily, I had a DD214 available -- although I had to make a 30 mile round trip to get it and bring it back.

Seriously, this state is lucky that I have no interest in owning a gun, because I was the sort of insanely mad about this that you might attribute to a mass shooter. I'm straight up ready to join an armed revolution in this state, if anyone wants to start one. Just don't make me carry a gun -- I don't like them (despite having been in the military).
 
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Yeah, I live in Kansas.

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Seriously, this state is lucky that I have no interest in owning a gun, because I was the sort of insanely mad about this that you might attribute to a mass shooter. I'm straight up ready to join an armed revolution in this state, if anyone wants to start one. Just don't make me carry a gun -- I don't like them (despite having been in the military).

I was told that living in landlocked flat lands without noticeable or contrasting landforms can drive you to experience feelings of alienation and anomy. Here it is called terror pampásico.
 
Which explains the terror birds nicely. :p

Those are Chilean

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Are you implying that those polls from Fox are true? I mean, Trump 45 Clinton 40 but Biden 50 Trump 39.

LOL, Biden is about the only potential candidate on the Democratic side that makes Hillary look presidential.
 
LOL, Biden is about the only potential candidate on the Democratic side that makes Hillary look presidential.

LOL or COL, this is what they are saying they said

Fox News[2]
October 10-12, 2015
1004 cases nationwide, +-3% error margin

Hillary Clinton 39% Carly Fiorina 42% 3
Hillary Clinton 40% Jeb Bush 42% 2
Hillary Clinton 40% Donald Trump 45% 5
Hillary Clinton 39% Ben Carson 50% 11
Joe Biden
50% Donald Trump 37% 13
Joe Biden
46% Jeb Bush 41% 5
Joe Biden
46% Carly Fiorina 42% 4
Joe Biden
46% Ben Carson 42% 4
Joe Biden
44% Marco Rubio 43% 1
Source.
Then two questions. What were you talking about? Are those polls reasonably close to the truth?
 
LOL or COL, this is what they are saying they said

Then two questions. What were you talking about? Are those polls reasonably close to the truth?

Since Biden isn't an actual candidate, these polls say more about Hillary than they do Biden, it is like giving a planet "X" option to poll takers. If Biden does enter the actual race he snags some votes from current candidates (mostly Hillary supporters) and then his campaign has to face the realities that are unimportant currently.

Oh,..and Biden would be the only establishment candidate to the right of Hillary and with his propensity toward gaffes and idiocy (see previous campaigns for presidency in the US) the only establishment candidate that would ultimately boost Hillary's gravitas.
 
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Since Biden isn't an actual candidate, these polls say more about Hillary than they do Biden, it is like giving a planet "X" option to poll takers. If Biden does enter the actual race he snags some votes from current candidates (mostly Hillary supporters) and then his campaign has to face the realities that are unimportant currently.

Oh,..and Biden would be the only establishment candidate to the right of Hillary and with his propensity toward gaffes and idiocy (see previous campaigns for presidency in the US) the only establishment candidate that would ultimately boost Hillary's gravitas.

:thumbsup: I understand now.

So, to me it's still "el Donald versus la Hillary" and I find Trump to be an extremely interesting case with no previous public incumbency and four bankruptcies filed.
 
:thumbsup: I understand now.

So, to me it's still "el Donald versus la Hillary" and I find Trump to be an extremely interesting case with no previous public incumbency and four bankruptcies filed.

Even among his social peers, Trump is generally considered to be a glorified used car saleman. Not sure how that translates for you. This Gallup poll should give some indication of how Americans feel about our ranking of the car dealer profession.
 
Even among his social peers, Trump is generally considered to be a glorified used car saleman. Not sure how that translates for you. This Gallup poll should give some indication of how Americans feel about our ranking of the car dealer profession.

Was is MAD magazine that had the picture of Nixon with the caption, "Would you buy a used car from this man?"?
 
Even among his social peers, Trump is generally considered to be a glorified used car saleman. Not sure how that translates for you. This Gallup poll should give some indication of how Americans feel about our ranking of the car dealer profession.

It makes complete sense. We don't have such problems with car dealers. We would say he looks like someone selling lots in a new urban development, those having the signposts with the fancy street names but not yet the streets nor the public services.
 

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